| There has essentially been no flu season in 2020/2021 23:22 - Feb 15 with 3472 views | StokieBlue |
The measures taken to control C19 have effectively eliminated the flu season this year. It's been similar in most countries (including the UK) but the figures from the US show that there have been only 1316 positive flu cases when last year by this time there were 129,997 positive cases (only 155 people have been hospitalised with flu this season).
Many people seem to be citing that if we can get C19 to the level we "accept" for flu deaths then we can live with that but surely the we should question whether we should accept those flu deaths at all?
Flu is less contagious than C19, the R is lower and thus measures to restrict it don't have to be as draconian as C19. A few simple things like washing hands habitually, limited social distancing and wearing masks (perhaps even just when you feel unwell to protect others) could make a massive difference to the flu deaths.
I've also seen people saying they can't wait to stop wearing masks (which I can understand) but if it was only in certain circumstances then surely it would be worth it to vastly reduce flu deaths? The argument that we can accept C19 at current flu levels can surely be extended to say that we shouldn't accept flu at current levels given it's not as contagious and those deaths can be reduced with some fairly simple measures?
There was a woman on Newsnight this evening who put forward a similar argument very well and it's worth a watch.
https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/22272237/flu-cases-down-historic-what-doe
SB |  | | |  |
| There has essentially been no flu season in 2020/2021 on 23:33 - Feb 15 with 1788 views | J2BLUE |
I think people think things like football will never be possible again when we talk about maintaining social distancing. It's important to stress that we're talking about easy gains like keeping 2m away in supermarkets etc. There are lot of easy wins we can take if people are prepared to be reasonable. Limited distancing, hand gel at entrances to buildings and limited mask wearing really are things we should take forward. |  |
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| There has essentially been no flu season in 2020/2021 on 23:44 - Feb 15 with 1762 views | StokieBlue |
| There has essentially been no flu season in 2020/2021 on 23:33 - Feb 15 by J2BLUE |
I think people think things like football will never be possible again when we talk about maintaining social distancing. It's important to stress that we're talking about easy gains like keeping 2m away in supermarkets etc. There are lot of easy wins we can take if people are prepared to be reasonable. Limited distancing, hand gel at entrances to buildings and limited mask wearing really are things we should take forward. |
Indeed, I am not referencing anything draconian, just simple measures which don't really affect peoples lives very much in order to vastly reduce the deaths from flu. It's also seasonal, it would only be needed during the few months of the flu season.
It just highlights that C19 really isn't the flu (the most annoying false equivalence of the last year) and that much simpler measures could have noticeable gains in reducing flu deaths.
SB | | | |
| There has essentially been no flu season in 2020/2021 on 07:07 - Feb 16 with 1588 views | gordon |
I think one of the easiest and most cost-effective ways to reduce the transmission (and deaths) from something like flu is to make sure that all workplaces have fair and easily accessible sick pay in place, so that people can actually have time off when they have flu, and then are made aware of the need to do so.
Think Matt Hancock did that classic Tory thing a while back of grandly declaring that people should understand that they need to stay home when they are ill, without actually thinking about how they could actually make that possible. |  | | |
| There has essentially been no flu season in 2020/2021 on 07:11 - Feb 16 with 1567 views | 26_Paz |
Is there an element that Covid 19 has ‘taken over’ from flu ... in a similar way to a bigger predator taking over from a smaller one? Those who would have had flu got Covid instead because it got to them first? |  |
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| There has essentially been no flu season in 2020/2021 on 07:15 - Feb 16 with 1565 views | jeera |
| There has essentially been no flu season in 2020/2021 on 23:44 - Feb 15 by StokieBlue |
Indeed, I am not referencing anything draconian, just simple measures which don't really affect peoples lives very much in order to vastly reduce the deaths from flu. It's also seasonal, it would only be needed during the few months of the flu season.
It just highlights that C19 really isn't the flu (the most annoying false equivalence of the last year) and that much simpler measures could have noticeable gains in reducing flu deaths.
SB |
It seems to be a cultural thing that we don't get even the basics right.
Until now, how many supermarkets have bothered to clean trollies and baskets that thousands of people handle each week? What a cess pit of disease those things must be.
We've all seen people use the toilets in these places without even washing their hands before then going on to do their food shop, touching everything along the way.
The filthy ba*****S.
Simple measures such as basic hygiene make so much difference. |  |
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| There has essentially been no flu season in 2020/2021 on 07:19 - Feb 16 with 1555 views | StokieBlue |
| There has essentially been no flu season in 2020/2021 on 07:07 - Feb 16 by gordon |
I think one of the easiest and most cost-effective ways to reduce the transmission (and deaths) from something like flu is to make sure that all workplaces have fair and easily accessible sick pay in place, so that people can actually have time off when they have flu, and then are made aware of the need to do so.
Think Matt Hancock did that classic Tory thing a while back of grandly declaring that people should understand that they need to stay home when they are ill, without actually thinking about how they could actually make that possible. |
Definitely, hopefully a provision will be put in place for this.
SB | | | |
| There has essentially been no flu season in 2020/2021 on 07:23 - Feb 16 with 1548 views | StokieBlue |
| There has essentially been no flu season in 2020/2021 on 07:11 - Feb 16 by 26_Paz |
Is there an element that Covid 19 has ‘taken over’ from flu ... in a similar way to a bigger predator taking over from a smaller one? Those who would have had flu got Covid instead because it got to them first? |
Not really, people didn't get flu because the R number for flu was essentially 0 because of the covid restrictions rather than people dying of covid first. You can see this by looking at the rate of the non-fatal cases (down ~99%).
You can't get it if it's not circulating in the population.
SB | | | |
| There has essentially been no flu season in 2020/2021 on 07:33 - Feb 16 with 1527 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| There has essentially been no flu season in 2020/2021 on 23:33 - Feb 15 by J2BLUE |
I think people think things like football will never be possible again when we talk about maintaining social distancing. It's important to stress that we're talking about easy gains like keeping 2m away in supermarkets etc. There are lot of easy wins we can take if people are prepared to be reasonable. Limited distancing, hand gel at entrances to buildings and limited mask wearing really are things we should take forward. |
So not a proposal to make kids wear masks at school, masks at football/gigs etc? If not then flu will be back. |  |
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| There has essentially been no flu season in 2020/2021 on 07:34 - Feb 16 with 1525 views | Harry_Palmer |
It's certainly very interesting that the flu season has been all but eliminated in 2020/21 and although it is likely that this is at least in part down to the C19 measures I think it's a bit early to say with certainty that this is the case or to know which of the measures have been the most effective. I have seen people stating things like 'wearing masks has wiped out the flu' but i'm not sure that there is any direct evidence to support this yet.
I wonder if there is also an element of C19 just simply being the dominant virus due to it being more contagious and basically infecting a lot of people that otherwise may have contracted the Flu in a mormal year? Have you seen anything to suggest this may have a part to play Stokie?
Certainly if it is proven that some of the measures have had a big effect on flu then society will have some interesting decisions to make with regards to balancing restrictions against acceptable risk.
I think most people would accept keeping the less draconian measures you suggest for the long term however where it will become tricky is with large gatherings such as Football matches or concerts. I rather suspect that the lack of these large gatherings of people in close proximity to each other may have been one of the more significant measures but do we really want to lose that from our lives?
For me some of life's best moments are when people get together in large numbers and
enjoy the shared experience of that winning goal or some amazing live music. I would find the prospect of permanent social distancing and masks at football stadiums rather depressing personally. Will be interesting to see how it all plays out though.
Edit - Sorry just seen your answer to Paz re. dominant virus - cheers. [Post edited 16 Feb 2021 7:38]
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| There has essentially been no flu season in 2020/2021 on 07:45 - Feb 16 with 1482 views | StokieBlue |
| There has essentially been no flu season in 2020/2021 on 07:33 - Feb 16 by BanksterDebtSlave |
So not a proposal to make kids wear masks at school, masks at football/gigs etc? If not then flu will be back. |
That's a simplistic way of looking at it. Nobody is saying we would go for zero flu, just a reduction in deaths that could fairly easily be prevented:
- give people space when appropriate
- regularly wash hands
- stay off work if you are sick (government provision)
- wear masks if you are out and feel unwell to protect others
- possibly masks on public transport
This isn't all the time either, only for the 3 months or so of flu season over the winter.
If one is sick they should probably also be asking themselves if they should be attending school, gigs or football given they are a risk to others at that point. It needs to be about protecting other people rather than individuals doing what they want regardless.
SB [Post edited 16 Feb 2021 7:46]
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| There has essentially been no flu season in 2020/2021 on 08:00 - Feb 16 with 1454 views | StokieBlue |
| There has essentially been no flu season in 2020/2021 on 07:34 - Feb 16 by Harry_Palmer |
It's certainly very interesting that the flu season has been all but eliminated in 2020/21 and although it is likely that this is at least in part down to the C19 measures I think it's a bit early to say with certainty that this is the case or to know which of the measures have been the most effective. I have seen people stating things like 'wearing masks has wiped out the flu' but i'm not sure that there is any direct evidence to support this yet.
I wonder if there is also an element of C19 just simply being the dominant virus due to it being more contagious and basically infecting a lot of people that otherwise may have contracted the Flu in a mormal year? Have you seen anything to suggest this may have a part to play Stokie?
Certainly if it is proven that some of the measures have had a big effect on flu then society will have some interesting decisions to make with regards to balancing restrictions against acceptable risk.
I think most people would accept keeping the less draconian measures you suggest for the long term however where it will become tricky is with large gatherings such as Football matches or concerts. I rather suspect that the lack of these large gatherings of people in close proximity to each other may have been one of the more significant measures but do we really want to lose that from our lives?
For me some of life's best moments are when people get together in large numbers and
enjoy the shared experience of that winning goal or some amazing live music. I would find the prospect of permanent social distancing and masks at football stadiums rather depressing personally. Will be interesting to see how it all plays out though.
Edit - Sorry just seen your answer to Paz re. dominant virus - cheers. [Post edited 16 Feb 2021 7:38]
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Morning.
Given flu is a respiratory virus which spreads through the same vectors as C19 (air droplets and surfaces) most experts I have read are confident the C19 measures such as social distancing, mask wearing and better hygiene practices have made a huge difference.
With regards to C19 being the dominant virus there isn't really such a thing for viruses which are outside the same family. There is no reason why one wouldn't get flu and C19 if both were circulating. The reason flu is virtually gone this year is that it's R is lower than C19 and thus it doesn't have the contagiousness to exploit the small gaps in restrictions and measures that C19 is able to exploit.
To be clear, I am not saying we should stop the events you've outlined in your post. I think everyone is looking forward to getting back to those. Any measures would be for the winter flu season only (~3 months a year) and at best-efforts. Obviously social distancing isn't possible at the events you've said but if someone feels ill they should either give them a miss or wear a mask to prevent other people getting infected. Masks are actually good at stopping infections from leaving a carrier and infecting others. Other things like hygiene in supermarkets and schools are essentially free and easy. Not hovering over someone's shoulder in the supermarket is a courtesy as well as helpful in stopping transmission.
I think it's certainly a debate that needs to be had. Many say we will accept C19 deaths at the rate of flu but why should we accept the rate of flu if it's fairly easy to lower without infringing much on peoples lives.
SB | | | |
| There has essentially been no flu season in 2020/2021 on 08:04 - Feb 16 with 1443 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| There has essentially been no flu season in 2020/2021 on 07:45 - Feb 16 by StokieBlue |
That's a simplistic way of looking at it. Nobody is saying we would go for zero flu, just a reduction in deaths that could fairly easily be prevented:
- give people space when appropriate
- regularly wash hands
- stay off work if you are sick (government provision)
- wear masks if you are out and feel unwell to protect others
- possibly masks on public transport
This isn't all the time either, only for the 3 months or so of flu season over the winter.
If one is sick they should probably also be asking themselves if they should be attending school, gigs or football given they are a risk to others at that point. It needs to be about protecting other people rather than individuals doing what they want regardless.
SB [Post edited 16 Feb 2021 7:46]
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Not sure that anyone with genuine flu gets out much. Is it a disease that is transmitted before symptoms develop?
I suspect that gains would be pretty marginal and also have concerns that making modern living even more sterile will eventually render our immune systems ineffective and thus even more vulnerable to the next threat. | |
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| There has essentially been no flu season in 2020/2021 on 08:05 - Feb 16 with 1440 views | Harry_Palmer |
| There has essentially been no flu season in 2020/2021 on 07:45 - Feb 16 by StokieBlue |
That's a simplistic way of looking at it. Nobody is saying we would go for zero flu, just a reduction in deaths that could fairly easily be prevented:
- give people space when appropriate
- regularly wash hands
- stay off work if you are sick (government provision)
- wear masks if you are out and feel unwell to protect others
- possibly masks on public transport
This isn't all the time either, only for the 3 months or so of flu season over the winter.
If one is sick they should probably also be asking themselves if they should be attending school, gigs or football given they are a risk to others at that point. It needs to be about protecting other people rather than individuals doing what they want regardless.
SB [Post edited 16 Feb 2021 7:46]
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I would be more than happy to comply with those measures during the flu season, it's really not much to ask.
To be honest I have pretty much always applied the first three anyway and always find it rather unacceptable when people come into work with heavy colds, coughing and spluttering while proudly boasting that they have never had a day of sick!
Of course I refer to people that get paid company sick pay here and fully accept it is a difficult scenario for the self employed, which is where the Government support should play a part. | | | |
| There has essentially been no flu season in 2020/2021 on 08:07 - Feb 16 with 1435 views | jeera |
| There has essentially been no flu season in 2020/2021 on 08:04 - Feb 16 by BanksterDebtSlave |
Not sure that anyone with genuine flu gets out much. Is it a disease that is transmitted before symptoms develop?
I suspect that gains would be pretty marginal and also have concerns that making modern living even more sterile will eventually render our immune systems ineffective and thus even more vulnerable to the next threat. |
If people who had it didn't mix then it would soon no longer exist right?
Regarding face coverings, do you cover your mouth when you sneeze/cough or do you splutter all over other people and their food at the dinner table? | |
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| There has essentially been no flu season in 2020/2021 on 08:15 - Feb 16 with 1416 views | StokieBlue |
| There has essentially been no flu season in 2020/2021 on 08:04 - Feb 16 by BanksterDebtSlave |
Not sure that anyone with genuine flu gets out much. Is it a disease that is transmitted before symptoms develop?
I suspect that gains would be pretty marginal and also have concerns that making modern living even more sterile will eventually render our immune systems ineffective and thus even more vulnerable to the next threat. |
In some cases it can but if the other measures are being followed then it will still have an impact even for non symptom transmission.
Present your expert driven evidence rather than shooting things down with "I suspect the gains would be marginal". I've presented evidence to the contrary, you've supplied nothing.
You are more worried about modern life being "sterile" than you are about saying needless deaths? I'll leave you to think about that one.
As for leaving us more vulnerable, it would only be vulnerable to flu if it was to anything, different viruses are recognised in different ways by our immune system hence why having flu gives no immunity to C19.
SB [Post edited 16 Feb 2021 8:16]
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| There has essentially been no flu season in 2020/2021 on 08:16 - Feb 16 with 1408 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| There has essentially been no flu season in 2020/2021 on 08:07 - Feb 16 by jeera |
If people who had it didn't mix then it would soon no longer exist right?
Regarding face coverings, do you cover your mouth when you sneeze/cough or do you splutter all over other people and their food at the dinner table? |
People with flu don't get out of bed! | |
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| There has essentially been no flu season in 2020/2021 on 08:21 - Feb 16 with 1377 views | StokieBlue |
| There has essentially been no flu season in 2020/2021 on 08:16 - Feb 16 by BanksterDebtSlave |
People with flu don't get out of bed! |
Depends how badly they have it. If it's a mild case they can still be up and about and pass it on to other far more vulnerable people.
It's about the viral load.
How do you explain the 99% reduction in flu cases this year?
SB [Post edited 16 Feb 2021 8:22]
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| There has essentially been no flu season in 2020/2021 on 08:22 - Feb 16 with 1371 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| There has essentially been no flu season in 2020/2021 on 08:15 - Feb 16 by StokieBlue |
In some cases it can but if the other measures are being followed then it will still have an impact even for non symptom transmission.
Present your expert driven evidence rather than shooting things down with "I suspect the gains would be marginal". I've presented evidence to the contrary, you've supplied nothing.
You are more worried about modern life being "sterile" than you are about saying needless deaths? I'll leave you to think about that one.
As for leaving us more vulnerable, it would only be vulnerable to flu if it was to anything, different viruses are recognised in different ways by our immune system hence why having flu gives no immunity to C19.
SB [Post edited 16 Feb 2021 8:16]
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Calm down dear, I am just putting some thoughts out there while getting ready for work.
Let's make this easy Stokie...you are, as always, entirely correct in whatever it is you are proposing! | |
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| There has essentially been no flu season in 2020/2021 on 08:23 - Feb 16 with 1360 views | StokieBlue |
| There has essentially been no flu season in 2020/2021 on 08:22 - Feb 16 by BanksterDebtSlave |
Calm down dear, I am just putting some thoughts out there while getting ready for work.
Let's make this easy Stokie...you are, as always, entirely correct in whatever it is you are proposing! |
I've just asked for you to present some evidence, nothing more. You said it would have marginal gains but that's not helpful if you can't support it.
SB [Post edited 16 Feb 2021 8:30]
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| There has essentially been no flu season in 2020/2021 on 08:25 - Feb 16 with 1347 views | jeera |
| There has essentially been no flu season in 2020/2021 on 08:16 - Feb 16 by BanksterDebtSlave |
People with flu don't get out of bed! |
Then it cannot possibly spread then nor exist can it?
People catch germs before everyone is sidelined you know.
Not everyone is floored immediately. | |
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| There has essentially been no flu season in 2020/2021 on 08:35 - Feb 16 with 1312 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| There has essentially been no flu season in 2020/2021 on 08:25 - Feb 16 by jeera |
Then it cannot possibly spread then nor exist can it?
People catch germs before everyone is sidelined you know.
Not everyone is floored immediately. |
So they will still be at football, gigs etc...etc...and flu will still be rife.or is the proposal actually that we do all wear masks on all these occasions too. Also the flu season can extend from October through till May. | |
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| There has essentially been no flu season in 2020/2021 on 08:39 - Feb 16 with 1285 views | GlasgowBlue |
| There has essentially been no flu season in 2020/2021 on 08:35 - Feb 16 by BanksterDebtSlave |
So they will still be at football, gigs etc...etc...and flu will still be rife.or is the proposal actually that we do all wear masks on all these occasions too. Also the flu season can extend from October through till May. |
Do you understand the difference between reducing the risk of transmissions and eradication? |  |
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| There has essentially been no flu season in 2020/2021 on 08:43 - Feb 16 with 1270 views | StokieBlue |
| There has essentially been no flu season in 2020/2021 on 08:35 - Feb 16 by BanksterDebtSlave |
So they will still be at football, gigs etc...etc...and flu will still be rife.or is the proposal actually that we do all wear masks on all these occasions too. Also the flu season can extend from October through till May. |
All the questions you are asking have already been covered in some of my posts.
The recognised flu season is December to March. It can extend to October and May like you say but it's not the regular occurrence. It also really doesn't matter with regards to making the small changes outlined.
In the end it's best-efforts in order to do what we can to reduce the deaths from flu.
SB [Post edited 16 Feb 2021 8:44]
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| There has essentially been no flu season in 2020/2021 on 08:49 - Feb 16 with 1246 views | N2_Blue |
| There has essentially been no flu season in 2020/2021 on 23:44 - Feb 15 by StokieBlue |
Indeed, I am not referencing anything draconian, just simple measures which don't really affect peoples lives very much in order to vastly reduce the deaths from flu. It's also seasonal, it would only be needed during the few months of the flu season.
It just highlights that C19 really isn't the flu (the most annoying false equivalence of the last year) and that much simpler measures could have noticeable gains in reducing flu deaths.
SB |
SB, all you say is fair enough.
But the problem here isn't the fact that we could easily reduce influenza deaths.
The problem is (that already in a pretty broken society/world) this is only going to increase the divide, and polarised camps. Politically we have seen growing discontent and the fact everything seems to be you're right/left. Brexit/Remain etc etc and now this is only going to add to those that say live your life as you want, and the social distancing (limited) mask waring is an infringement on personal freedoms.
Yes it will only be personal choice and any decent citizen knows what the right thing to do is but humans in general can be a pretty revolting species and this will only increase the noise between those that respect their own and those that do not and are only in it for them
Humans are increasingly selfish in a selfish world and unfortunately this pandemic is going to change things socially for the worse for decades, potentially centuries, into the future. |  |
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| There has essentially been no flu season in 2020/2021 on 08:50 - Feb 16 with 1238 views | hype313 |
| There has essentially been no flu season in 2020/2021 on 07:45 - Feb 16 by StokieBlue |
That's a simplistic way of looking at it. Nobody is saying we would go for zero flu, just a reduction in deaths that could fairly easily be prevented:
- give people space when appropriate
- regularly wash hands
- stay off work if you are sick (government provision)
- wear masks if you are out and feel unwell to protect others
- possibly masks on public transport
This isn't all the time either, only for the 3 months or so of flu season over the winter.
If one is sick they should probably also be asking themselves if they should be attending school, gigs or football given they are a risk to others at that point. It needs to be about protecting other people rather than individuals doing what they want regardless.
SB [Post edited 16 Feb 2021 7:46]
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I think masks on public transport is a no brainer, I shall certainly continue to do that, especially when I'm traveling on the tube. |  |
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