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Looking at the table…. 19:44 - Oct 5 with 4517 viewsJohn_Warks_Willy

I feel we can keep just edging away from Wolves and Soton, who on early showings look either too leaky (former) or just bad (latter)

It’s that 3rd from bottom spot innit. Need to keep up with (at minimum) Everton and Leicester - ideally ahead of obvs.

Don’t think Palace will be in trouble come the end of the season.

Early days, I know. And yes, we lost today badly I know. And maybe Man U can be dragged into a relegation battle too 😄
[Post edited 5 Oct 2024 19:45]

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Looking at the table…. on 20:09 - Oct 5 with 3807 viewsWinchBlue

I’m not panicking yet
Simply, history says that we need to win 9/10 games. Most of these will be home games and we haven’t played anyone in the bottom half of the table at home yet. We will win very few away games but should pick up the odd point from draws.
Still early days as far as I’m concerned.
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Looking at the table…. on 20:14 - Oct 5 with 3765 viewsMVBlue

Looking at the table…. on 20:09 - Oct 5 by WinchBlue

I’m not panicking yet
Simply, history says that we need to win 9/10 games. Most of these will be home games and we haven’t played anyone in the bottom half of the table at home yet. We will win very few away games but should pick up the odd point from draws.
Still early days as far as I’m concerned.


A win in the next 2 will really help. Looking at the table, OK we are 17th. Just need that win to keep the manager, the fans, the players, everyone happy that we are going the right way. Lets go Kieran, get that win!!

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Looking at the table…. on 21:03 - Oct 5 with 3615 viewsdavblue

Looking at the table…. on 20:09 - Oct 5 by WinchBlue

I’m not panicking yet
Simply, history says that we need to win 9/10 games. Most of these will be home games and we haven’t played anyone in the bottom half of the table at home yet. We will win very few away games but should pick up the odd point from draws.
Still early days as far as I’m concerned.


31 games left, we need at least 10 wins you would have thought.

In those 31 games we have to play City and Liverpool. Arsenal twice, Spurs twice, United twice, Newcastle twice, Chelsea twice. 12 of those 31 games are gone there. We are going to need a couple of wins in that lot otherwise it’s 10 wins in 19 games. It’s already starting to look challenging.
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Looking at the table…. on 21:21 - Oct 5 with 3549 viewsJohn_Warks_Willy

Why the downvote Charlie?

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Looking at the table…. on 21:23 - Oct 5 with 3531 viewsAsa

Looking at the table…. on 21:03 - Oct 5 by davblue

31 games left, we need at least 10 wins you would have thought.

In those 31 games we have to play City and Liverpool. Arsenal twice, Spurs twice, United twice, Newcastle twice, Chelsea twice. 12 of those 31 games are gone there. We are going to need a couple of wins in that lot otherwise it’s 10 wins in 19 games. It’s already starting to look challenging.


But that’s not the case.

The three teams below us also have to do the same then and they likely have harder games than us given we’ve played 5 of the top 8 already.
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Looking at the table…. on 22:23 - Oct 5 with 3406 viewsdavblue

Looking at the table…. on 21:03 - Oct 5 by davblue

31 games left, we need at least 10 wins you would have thought.

In those 31 games we have to play City and Liverpool. Arsenal twice, Spurs twice, United twice, Newcastle twice, Chelsea twice. 12 of those 31 games are gone there. We are going to need a couple of wins in that lot otherwise it’s 10 wins in 19 games. It’s already starting to look challenging.


Maybe but Palace are a point behind us and have a better team than us.

I still think it’s going to be very, very challenging from here, not winning in 7 games albeit some hard games, we can’t have too many more of those run of games without getting a win.
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Looking at the table…. on 22:28 - Oct 5 with 3379 viewsLittleBoyBlue1

Looking at the table…. on 21:23 - Oct 5 by Asa

But that’s not the case.

The three teams below us also have to do the same then and they likely have harder games than us given we’ve played 5 of the top 8 already.


the thing is those teams below us won't hesitate to change their manager...which could mean new manager bounces or just overall improvements
[Post edited 5 Oct 2024 22:30]
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Looking at the table…. on 22:28 - Oct 5 with 3375 viewspointofblue

Looking at the table…. on 22:23 - Oct 5 by davblue

Maybe but Palace are a point behind us and have a better team than us.

I still think it’s going to be very, very challenging from here, not winning in 7 games albeit some hard games, we can’t have too many more of those run of games without getting a win.


I think we're going to regret the Southampton result. As much as it's better to score than concede in the final minute, we really needed three points there - not one.

To a lesser extent, drawing against Fulham at home is possibly two points dropped too. And today... West Ham have looked dreadful this season so to be at the end of a drubbing isn't the best way to head into an international break.

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Looking at the table…. on 22:31 - Oct 5 with 3344 viewsSitfcB

Looking at the table…. on 21:21 - Oct 5 by John_Warks_Willy

Why the downvote Charlie?


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Looking at the table…. on 22:33 - Oct 5 with 3333 viewsJammyDodgerrr

Looking at the table…. on 22:28 - Oct 5 by LittleBoyBlue1

the thing is those teams below us won't hesitate to change their manager...which could mean new manager bounces or just overall improvements
[Post edited 5 Oct 2024 22:30]


Which largely is a statistical myth and very rarely does a manager change bring significant benefit.

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Looking at the table…. on 22:34 - Oct 5 with 3327 viewsLittleBoyBlue1

Looking at the table…. on 22:33 - Oct 5 by JammyDodgerrr

Which largely is a statistical myth and very rarely does a manager change bring significant benefit.


A manager change doesn't bring benefit?

So why do managers change at all?

We've not improved under McKenna then I take it?
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Looking at the table…. on 23:05 - Oct 5 with 3192 viewsMattinLondon

Looking at the table…. on 22:34 - Oct 5 by LittleBoyBlue1

A manager change doesn't bring benefit?

So why do managers change at all?

We've not improved under McKenna then I take it?


https://www.888sport.com/blog/football-myths-new-manager-bounce
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Looking at the table…. on 23:14 - Oct 5 with 3163 viewsLittleBoyBlue1

Looking at the table…. on 23:05 - Oct 5 by MattinLondon

https://www.888sport.com/blog/football-myths-new-manager-bounce


https://www.olbg.com/blogs/new-manager-bounce
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Looking at the table…. on 23:23 - Oct 5 with 3113 viewsJammyDodgerrr

Looking at the table…. on 22:34 - Oct 5 by LittleBoyBlue1

A manager change doesn't bring benefit?

So why do managers change at all?

We've not improved under McKenna then I take it?


You were talking about the new manager bounce, which is commonly seen as a sacking then you pick up a few wins immediately and head towards improvement, and that is what I was referring to. Clearly clubs change manager which being long term benefit and changes etc, but that was not what was being talked about.

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Looking at the table…. on 23:28 - Oct 5 with 3085 viewspositivity

Looking at the table…. on 22:34 - Oct 5 by LittleBoyBlue1

A manager change doesn't bring benefit?

So why do managers change at all?

We've not improved under McKenna then I take it?


he said rarely, didn't see much benefit with hurst/lambert/cook etc!

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Looking at the table…. on 23:32 - Oct 5 with 3048 viewsLittleBoyBlue1

Looking at the table…. on 23:23 - Oct 5 by JammyDodgerrr

You were talking about the new manager bounce, which is commonly seen as a sacking then you pick up a few wins immediately and head towards improvement, and that is what I was referring to. Clearly clubs change manager which being long term benefit and changes etc, but that was not what was being talked about.


I'm talking about new managers improving things.

And that the teams around us are more likely than us to change their manager this season.

So they're more likely to have bigger changes in performance, due to new footballing approaches being implemented, than we are.
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Looking at the table…. on 23:36 - Oct 5 with 3025 viewspositivity

Looking at the table…. on 23:32 - Oct 5 by LittleBoyBlue1

I'm talking about new managers improving things.

And that the teams around us are more likely than us to change their manager this season.

So they're more likely to have bigger changes in performance, due to new footballing approaches being implemented, than we are.


but new managers don't always improve things, the changes in performance may be negative.

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Looking at the table…. on 23:49 - Oct 5 with 2937 viewsLittleBoyBlue1

Looking at the table…. on 23:36 - Oct 5 by positivity

but new managers don't always improve things, the changes in performance may be negative.


It may, but when you're already relegation fodder it's replacing a guaranteed negative with a possible negative.

All I'm saying is I can see the teams around us more likely to gamble. Wolves, Palace and Everton could each have new managers by January.

It's a gamble we won't take because McKenna has so much credit in the bank. Please don't misinterpret this. I do think it is a unique situation where those other clubs have that hail Mary option which we don't...and it could work for them. We don't even have the option imo.
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Looking at the table…. on 23:53 - Oct 5 with 2898 viewspositivity

Looking at the table…. on 23:49 - Oct 5 by LittleBoyBlue1

It may, but when you're already relegation fodder it's replacing a guaranteed negative with a possible negative.

All I'm saying is I can see the teams around us more likely to gamble. Wolves, Palace and Everton could each have new managers by January.

It's a gamble we won't take because McKenna has so much credit in the bank. Please don't misinterpret this. I do think it is a unique situation where those other clubs have that hail Mary option which we don't...and it could work for them. We don't even have the option imo.


but in the same vein, someone just above us (like everton or man utd(!)) could panic and make the wrong call and get worse.

there was talk about west ham making a change if they'd lost to us, and you wouldn't bet your house on them making a better call on the manager

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Looking at the table…. on 08:09 - Oct 6 with 2536 viewshoppy

Looking at the table…. on 21:03 - Oct 5 by davblue

31 games left, we need at least 10 wins you would have thought.

In those 31 games we have to play City and Liverpool. Arsenal twice, Spurs twice, United twice, Newcastle twice, Chelsea twice. 12 of those 31 games are gone there. We are going to need a couple of wins in that lot otherwise it’s 10 wins in 19 games. It’s already starting to look challenging.


But, there may well be unexpected results along the way… Forest winning at Liverpool shows that.

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Looking at the table…. on 09:11 - Oct 6 with 2439 viewsdavblue

Looking at the table…. on 08:09 - Oct 6 by hoppy

But, there may well be unexpected results along the way… Forest winning at Liverpool shows that.


Of course. We are going to need to pull out a couple of 3 pointers from those games, otherwise the other games do become big pressure games.
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Looking at the table…. on 09:30 - Oct 6 with 2355 viewsPique

Watching MOTD this morning, think you're right. Wolves and Southampton look like they're going to struggle this season, but Palace weren't bad at all against Liverpool and were a bit unlucky. They're going to start picking up some wins soon, which means we need to start doing the same before too long. Everton would be a great time to start.
[Post edited 6 Oct 2024 9:31]
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Looking at the table…. on 09:39 - Oct 6 with 2309 viewsbilllm

Looking at the table…. on 21:03 - Oct 5 by davblue

31 games left, we need at least 10 wins you would have thought.

In those 31 games we have to play City and Liverpool. Arsenal twice, Spurs twice, United twice, Newcastle twice, Chelsea twice. 12 of those 31 games are gone there. We are going to need a couple of wins in that lot otherwise it’s 10 wins in 19 games. It’s already starting to look challenging.


That's a chilling way of looking at it very harsh league,
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Looking at the table…. on 09:56 - Oct 6 with 2245 viewspositivity

Looking at the table…. on 09:39 - Oct 6 by billlm

That's a chilling way of looking at it very harsh league,


particularly as i'd rate our chances of collecting points at home to the likes of man utd or toon higher than away games against the likes of brighton and west ham.

home games are going to be key

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Looking at the table…. on 10:14 - Oct 6 with 2207 viewsRozz

Looking at the table…. on 21:03 - Oct 5 by davblue

31 games left, we need at least 10 wins you would have thought.

In those 31 games we have to play City and Liverpool. Arsenal twice, Spurs twice, United twice, Newcastle twice, Chelsea twice. 12 of those 31 games are gone there. We are going to need a couple of wins in that lot otherwise it’s 10 wins in 19 games. It’s already starting to look challenging.


36pts is the average, but given the gulf between top and bottom of the league it could well be lower (27pts to survive last season).

I think it's probably closer to 7 or 8 wins + a number of draws.
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