| Russian ship in the channel 20:47 - Sep 26 with 6423 views | nodge_blue |
I just saw a story on YT that there’s a Russian cargo ship in the channel, close to Dungeness, that’s “struggling”. With enough fertiliser on it to create an explosion equivalent to two tactical nukes.
I really don’t like us playing Russian roulette with all this. Sooner or later Putin might do something extreme. The guy on the video said he’s bluffing with all the nukes etc, but how the hell does he know to be frank. Desperate people do desperate things.
Am I just being a coward to say we shouldn’t allow these storm shadows to hit Russia, in the face of Ukraine keep getting battered?
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| Russian ship in the channel on 20:56 - Sep 26 with 4877 views | blueasfook |
So what's the alternative? Let Putin do what he wants? Let's not forget he's pounding Ukraine with missiles and drones supplied by Iran and North Korea, and I wouldn't mind betting China are supplying him with key weapons components too. So why shouldn't Ukraine be allowed to use foreign-supplied weapons too? |  |
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| Russian ship in the channel on 21:00 - Sep 26 with 4832 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
I was mildly nervous the first time Putin rattled the nuclear sabre. Now he’s done it so often it’s lost all meaning. He might be stupid, incompetent, and a bully but I doubt he’s suicidal. There was talk that he might do a nuclear test/detonation as a show of force - turning part of Russia into a nuclear wasteland ‘to puff out his chest’ would just show how stupid he actually is.
If we (the West) back off it will only embolden him, as it did with our feeble response to his annexation of Crimea. Unfortunately history has shown that appeasement of genocidal dictators simply leads to more death and destruction.
I’m too young, but by contrast I imagine for those living through the Cold War, it was genuinely scary at times. |  | | |
| Russian ship in the channel on 21:04 - Sep 26 with 4783 views | J2BLUE |
Depends how seriously they think he will go after a NATO country next. If they genuinely believe that then they might as well authorise Ukraine to use them now.
I suppose we could get Trump in the White House. He says he can end the war in one day. I believe him. He'll give Russia everything they want, withdraw support and then sell it as a win as they re-arm. |  |
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| Russian ship in the channel on 21:05 - Sep 26 with 4778 views | nodge_blue |
| Russian ship in the channel on 20:56 - Sep 26 by blueasfook |
So what's the alternative? Let Putin do what he wants? Let's not forget he's pounding Ukraine with missiles and drones supplied by Iran and North Korea, and I wouldn't mind betting China are supplying him with key weapons components too. So why shouldn't Ukraine be allowed to use foreign-supplied weapons too? |
I’m not saying any of this for noble reasons other than I find it scary as hell that things could escalate and accidental exploding boats off Dungeness could be explained away as exactly that.
History says don’t appease a dictator, but my gut reaction is also don’t stir the pot too much.
I’m not sure why I even started this thread other than it all sits like an obsessive thought in my head, like I have to find answers, when clearly I don’t and can’t. | |
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| Russian ship in the channel on 21:08 - Sep 26 with 4746 views | BloomBlue |
Would anyone notice if Dungeness did disappear? |  | | |
| Russian ship in the channel on 21:09 - Sep 26 with 4736 views | nodge_blue |
| Russian ship in the channel on 21:00 - Sep 26 by SuperKieranMcKenna |
I was mildly nervous the first time Putin rattled the nuclear sabre. Now he’s done it so often it’s lost all meaning. He might be stupid, incompetent, and a bully but I doubt he’s suicidal. There was talk that he might do a nuclear test/detonation as a show of force - turning part of Russia into a nuclear wasteland ‘to puff out his chest’ would just show how stupid he actually is.
If we (the West) back off it will only embolden him, as it did with our feeble response to his annexation of Crimea. Unfortunately history has shown that appeasement of genocidal dictators simply leads to more death and destruction.
I’m too young, but by contrast I imagine for those living through the Cold War, it was genuinely scary at times. |
There is now a famous moment in the 80s when a NATO war game was temporarily construed by Russia as nukes had been launched. And it was only some calm heads that stopped them firing off too.
I was a boy living in Gorleston and I remember confusing the flood warning sirens going off for an all out attack. I was turning on the radio etc.
Think his mental scarring stays in my head lol. | |
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| Russian ship in the channel on 21:10 - Sep 26 with 4725 views | nodge_blue |
| Russian ship in the channel on 21:08 - Sep 26 by BloomBlue |
Would anyone notice if Dungeness did disappear? |
Considering what sits there, I should say so. | |
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| Russian ship in the channel on 21:10 - Sep 26 with 4720 views | blueasfook |
| Russian ship in the channel on 21:04 - Sep 26 by J2BLUE |
Depends how seriously they think he will go after a NATO country next. If they genuinely believe that then they might as well authorise Ukraine to use them now.
I suppose we could get Trump in the White House. He says he can end the war in one day. I believe him. He'll give Russia everything they want, withdraw support and then sell it as a win as they re-arm. |
It will be bad for European security if Trump wins. He's not a fan of NATO and he threatened to withdraw the US from it during his last term. Putin would certainly see that as an opportunity to test NATO's resolve if he thinks Trump wouldn't pile in and support the European alllies. I say we nuke him if he hangs us out to dry! | |
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| Russian ship in the channel on 21:22 - Sep 26 with 4595 views | BloomBlue |
| Russian ship in the channel on 21:09 - Sep 26 by nodge_blue |
There is now a famous moment in the 80s when a NATO war game was temporarily construed by Russia as nukes had been launched. And it was only some calm heads that stopped them firing off too.
I was a boy living in Gorleston and I remember confusing the flood warning sirens going off for an all out attack. I was turning on the radio etc.
Think his mental scarring stays in my head lol. |
On a positive Russia has hypersonic nuclear missiles, so they will arrive/hit before the bod at Gorleston council can even start the flood (bomb) warning sirens | | | |
| Russian ship in the channel on 21:29 - Sep 26 with 4528 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
| Russian ship in the channel on 21:10 - Sep 26 by blueasfook |
It will be bad for European security if Trump wins. He's not a fan of NATO and he threatened to withdraw the US from it during his last term. Putin would certainly see that as an opportunity to test NATO's resolve if he thinks Trump wouldn't pile in and support the European alllies. I say we nuke him if he hangs us out to dry! |
Trump is not a dictator (at least not yet), there’s no way on earth the rest of the Republicans, or whoever runs the Senate signs of a US withdrawal from the most powerful military alliance on Earth. The US has 100’s of billions of financial interests at stake in Europe. Don’t forget he has very anti China, and anti Iranian instincts. To keep the seas open for trade he needs NATO assets for the med (Russia), and Middle East (Iran).
That aside, Russia doesn’t have the military capacity for any kind of invasion of Europe (even in the remote scenario that the US withdrew its military assets from Europe). It’s taken Russia half a million casualties, and half of their Sovereign wealth just to take some of Luhansk and Donetsk. | | | |
| Russian ship in the channel on 22:59 - Sep 26 with 4183 views | Guthrum |
Putin is unlikely to do anything really extreme unless he personally is under threat (of being deposed and/or killed) - in which case all bets are off.
Properly losing in Ukraine might precipitate such a situation, but equally if it's an internal coup, he may nuke the plotters rather than the West.
Putin is not mad, he's a Russian ultra-nationalist. He's working on a slightly different set of rules than Western leaders, but they are rational and having his country devastated in a nuclear war is not on his list of aims. Unless, as I said, he himself is about to go down. |  |
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| Russian ship in the channel on 23:54 - Sep 26 with 4030 views | Churchman |
He really won’t. He’s a coward who is happy for 1000s to die in his name. But not he or anyone close to him.
The last thing you do is bend to his will. If he’s frightened of storm shadow, use them or threaten to. If he wants to play bluff on nuclear, play it. He has literally nothing to gain but what he fears most. Just look at his behaviour during Covid with his silly table. His mouth has been flapping for more than two years. He’s all wind and p£ss.
A alternative strategy is scrap UK / Euro defence and including nuclear deterrent and tell the nice, kindly Strong Man that security is now in his hands.
Just my view |  | | |
| Russian ship in the channel on 00:15 - Sep 27 with 4002 views | Lord_Lucan |
| Russian ship in the channel on 22:59 - Sep 26 by Guthrum |
Putin is unlikely to do anything really extreme unless he personally is under threat (of being deposed and/or killed) - in which case all bets are off.
Properly losing in Ukraine might precipitate such a situation, but equally if it's an internal coup, he may nuke the plotters rather than the West.
Putin is not mad, he's a Russian ultra-nationalist. He's working on a slightly different set of rules than Western leaders, but they are rational and having his country devastated in a nuclear war is not on his list of aims. Unless, as I said, he himself is about to go down. |
But he has a family including a couple of daughters, one of which he adores.
No one knows for sure but I don't think he would press red.
Also - I'm not sure it's like a film and he has his finger hovering over it. He would get toppled before it got to that
IMHO |  |
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| Russian ship in the channel on 00:15 - Sep 27 with 3997 views | Oldsmoker |
| Russian ship in the channel on 21:00 - Sep 26 by SuperKieranMcKenna |
I was mildly nervous the first time Putin rattled the nuclear sabre. Now he’s done it so often it’s lost all meaning. He might be stupid, incompetent, and a bully but I doubt he’s suicidal. There was talk that he might do a nuclear test/detonation as a show of force - turning part of Russia into a nuclear wasteland ‘to puff out his chest’ would just show how stupid he actually is.
If we (the West) back off it will only embolden him, as it did with our feeble response to his annexation of Crimea. Unfortunately history has shown that appeasement of genocidal dictators simply leads to more death and destruction.
I’m too young, but by contrast I imagine for those living through the Cold War, it was genuinely scary at times. |
Putin did do a missile test to back up his threat to the EU that Strasbourg is less than 4 mins away.
It failed spectacularly.
It destroyed the test site.
It didn't get out of the silo.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/09/23/russia-sarmat-icbm-disaster/ |  |
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| Russian ship in the channel on 02:09 - Sep 27 with 3865 views | Guthrum |
| Russian ship in the channel on 00:15 - Sep 27 by Lord_Lucan |
But he has a family including a couple of daughters, one of which he adores.
No one knows for sure but I don't think he would press red.
Also - I'm not sure it's like a film and he has his finger hovering over it. He would get toppled before it got to that
IMHO |
Indeed. There are several links in the chain between his order and anything being launched. The question is whether anyone in the process would say "What? Hang on ..". It's been trained for, but never actually tested in action.
Plus I do wonder how much of it would actually work (either through poor maintenance or deliberate interference). | |
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| Russian ship in the channel on 09:24 - Sep 27 with 3538 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Russian ship in the channel on 00:15 - Sep 27 by Lord_Lucan |
But he has a family including a couple of daughters, one of which he adores.
No one knows for sure but I don't think he would press red.
Also - I'm not sure it's like a film and he has his finger hovering over it. He would get toppled before it got to that
IMHO |
Speaking of which, yesterday was the 41st anniversary of Stanislav Petrov ignoring the Soviet nuclear early warning system, which reported the launch of 5 nukes coming into Russia from the United States. |  |
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| Russian ship in the channel on 10:46 - Sep 27 with 3272 views | nodge_blue |
I love sites like that. Currently at anchor. Just sitting there. Is the destination the one on the right? | |
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| Russian ship in the channel on 10:47 - Sep 27 with 3269 views | Guthrum |
Wouldn't have thought the Richard Montgomery would be a problem, the ship is currently over 40 miles away from that wreck. Even propagating underwater, the significant blast radius would be nowhere near that. | |
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| Russian ship in the channel on 11:49 - Sep 27 with 3084 views | soupytwist |
| Russian ship in the channel on 10:47 - Sep 27 by Guthrum |
Wouldn't have thought the Richard Montgomery would be a problem, the ship is currently over 40 miles away from that wreck. Even propagating underwater, the significant blast radius would be nowhere near that. |
You probably know more about it than me, but some of the predictions about what would happen if the Montgomery went up and how precarious it is are quite concerning.
Maybe I don't need to worry about my mum's house in Southend being washed away in an enormous tsunami just yet. |  | | |
| Russian ship in the channel on 12:27 - Sep 27 with 2959 views | ronnyd |
| Russian ship in the channel on 11:49 - Sep 27 by soupytwist |
You probably know more about it than me, but some of the predictions about what would happen if the Montgomery went up and how precarious it is are quite concerning.
Maybe I don't need to worry about my mum's house in Southend being washed away in an enormous tsunami just yet. |
Just change the name to Southend-in- Sea. | | | |
| Russian ship in the channel on 13:05 - Sep 27 with 2858 views | bobbyramsey |
| Russian ship in the channel on 21:08 - Sep 26 by BloomBlue |
Would anyone notice if Dungeness did disappear? |
Nice beach..... |  | | |
| Russian ship in the channel on 13:19 - Sep 27 with 2798 views | NewcyBlue |
| Russian ship in the channel on 10:46 - Sep 27 by nodge_blue |
I love sites like that. Currently at anchor. Just sitting there. Is the destination the one on the right? |
Yes, the destination is put in by the OOW (Officer Of the Watch). It can be left blank, you can put anything in. The system works on AIS (Automatic Identification System). Range of which is 30-40 miles but depends on atmospheric conditions and height of antenna.
During the height of the Somali Piracy a lot of ships used to put “Armed Guards On Board” as their destination. Some ships even turned off their AIS (Automatic Identification System), so they are more invisible.
There was a day where people on here were watching me on one ship transit the Med into the Alboran Sea. |  |
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| Russian ship in the channel on 13:30 - Sep 27 with 2732 views | Pinewoodblue |
| Russian ship in the channel on 10:47 - Sep 27 by Guthrum |
Wouldn't have thought the Richard Montgomery would be a problem, the ship is currently over 40 miles away from that wreck. Even propagating underwater, the significant blast radius would be nowhere near that. |
You wonder what the blast radius would be, and if there would be a tsunami guess the North Sea is shallow in that area. |  |
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