| Ignore all the noise and pundits who only see the result 23:21 - Oct 26 with 2094 views | jasondozzell |
Brilliantly spirited performance with our backs against the wall with this injury crisis.
Fantastic press and energy first half. Hirst worked his socks off. Two great goals.
Two chances for Brentford and the took them. That's the level. We pressed well but high line meant their pace was dangerous.
Nonsense VAR rubbish after half time. Not one Brentford player seemed to appeal for it.
Then red card. 3-2 down and down to ten men and we kept playing.. Brilliant effort. Deserved the equaliser..
What happened at the end happens. Doesn't really mean much.
Team spirit, Phillips and Cajuste, Hirst, Delap,.Sammie pressing, McKenna doubling down. Will all be worth more than the point at the end of the season..
We are staying up with that sort of fight in us. [Post edited 26 Oct 2024 23:32]
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| Ignore all the noise and pundits who only see the result on 23:23 - Oct 26 with 2069 views | gainsboroughblue |
Let it act as an inspiration to us and those at the club.
We've been written off for the last two years after all. |  |
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| Ignore all the noise and pundits who only see the result on 23:29 - Oct 26 with 2006 views | FrimleyBlue |
As I said earlier. I just hope KM learns from that game.
Stick hutch on the right next week with oshea. Unless jounson is back.
Jack clarke is a finisher defo not one from the start. The cover szmodics gave davis was excellent from the first minute. Jack hasn't done that when he has played from the start.
Hirst has to start
Phillips and cajuste will be an epic cm partnership. It had to be given time to flourish
Drop the keeper [Post edited 26 Oct 2024 23:30]
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| Ignore all the noise and pundits who only see the result on 23:42 - Oct 26 with 1938 views | itfc_statman |
As I said elsewhere but relevant here, it's not just the result.
I looked at it from a statistical point of view as I have done every game this season and realistically there was only going to be one winner.
They created 4.1 xG vs our 1.30 xG
It's been a worrying trend all season. I know some don't like the stats side of the game but you can guarantee the analytical team will be looking at this and be hugely concerned.
What stats don't tell you is heart and desire. We show a lot of that but that doesn't keep you in this division. |  | | |
| Ignore all the noise and pundits who only see the result on 23:45 - Oct 26 with 1911 views | FrimleyBlue |
| Ignore all the noise and pundits who only see the result on 23:42 - Oct 26 by itfc_statman |
As I said elsewhere but relevant here, it's not just the result.
I looked at it from a statistical point of view as I have done every game this season and realistically there was only going to be one winner.
They created 4.1 xG vs our 1.30 xG
It's been a worrying trend all season. I know some don't like the stats side of the game but you can guarantee the analytical team will be looking at this and be hugely concerned.
What stats don't tell you is heart and desire. We show a lot of that but that doesn't keep you in this division. |
That xg has to be bullox
Apart from their goals. What else did they create that we didn't? | |
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| Ignore all the noise and pundits who only see the result on 23:46 - Oct 26 with 1908 views | jasondozzell |
| Ignore all the noise and pundits who only see the result on 23:42 - Oct 26 by itfc_statman |
As I said elsewhere but relevant here, it's not just the result.
I looked at it from a statistical point of view as I have done every game this season and realistically there was only going to be one winner.
They created 4.1 xG vs our 1.30 xG
It's been a worrying trend all season. I know some don't like the stats side of the game but you can guarantee the analytical team will be looking at this and be hugely concerned.
What stats don't tell you is heart and desire. We show a lot of that but that doesn't keep you in this division. |
I understand the importance of data in the game nowadays but don't agree on that today. We could have gone in at HT 3-0 up and it wouldn't have flattered us.
Better teams than us will go down to ten men against worse sides than Brentford and fold. We didn't.
We cause teams trouble and we can score. We are not last year's Burnley. | | | |
| Ignore all the noise and pundits who only see the result on 00:12 - Oct 27 with 1767 views | itfc_statman |
| Ignore all the noise and pundits who only see the result on 23:46 - Oct 26 by jasondozzell |
I understand the importance of data in the game nowadays but don't agree on that today. We could have gone in at HT 3-0 up and it wouldn't have flattered us.
Better teams than us will go down to ten men against worse sides than Brentford and fold. We didn't.
We cause teams trouble and we can score. We are not last year's Burnley. |
3-0 would have been unlikely, based on xG. Which you have to understand is the likelihood of that chance resulting in a goal.
They created 7 "big chances" to our 4. It would have been pretty criminal had Brentford not won that game, although we'd all have taken it.
It was actually only the Villa game in this entire season so far where we've had a higher xG than our opponents.
Again, this stat doesn't mean everything but no team has stayed up with our xG difference extrapolated.
As to how it compares to the rest of the league, you can sort the Prem Table by xGD (if you're interested) on fbref: https://fbref.com/en/comps/9/Premier-League-Stats
It's not yet updated to include todays game but we are bottom of the Premier league and the only team to be in negative double digits for xGD.
Again, for those interested, our xGD per 90 is -1.35
The worst out of any team last season was Sheffield United with -1.01
There is a huge amount of work to do. | | | |
| Ignore all the noise and pundits who only see the result on 00:16 - Oct 27 with 1734 views | jasondozzell |
| Ignore all the noise and pundits who only see the result on 00:12 - Oct 27 by itfc_statman |
3-0 would have been unlikely, based on xG. Which you have to understand is the likelihood of that chance resulting in a goal.
They created 7 "big chances" to our 4. It would have been pretty criminal had Brentford not won that game, although we'd all have taken it.
It was actually only the Villa game in this entire season so far where we've had a higher xG than our opponents.
Again, this stat doesn't mean everything but no team has stayed up with our xG difference extrapolated.
As to how it compares to the rest of the league, you can sort the Prem Table by xGD (if you're interested) on fbref: https://fbref.com/en/comps/9/Premier-League-Stats
It's not yet updated to include todays game but we are bottom of the Premier league and the only team to be in negative double digits for xGD.
Again, for those interested, our xGD per 90 is -1.35
The worst out of any team last season was Sheffield United with -1.01
There is a huge amount of work to do. |
I take your points and it is hard to argue with raw figures. But there's surely room for the eye alongside the data.
We played well today. Players are bedding in. We create chances.
In the end the only number that will matter is the points total in May. With fight like that I think it will be good enough. | | | |
| Ignore all the noise and pundits who only see the result on 01:06 - Oct 27 with 1490 views | Kievthegreat |
| Ignore all the noise and pundits who only see the result on 00:12 - Oct 27 by itfc_statman |
3-0 would have been unlikely, based on xG. Which you have to understand is the likelihood of that chance resulting in a goal.
They created 7 "big chances" to our 4. It would have been pretty criminal had Brentford not won that game, although we'd all have taken it.
It was actually only the Villa game in this entire season so far where we've had a higher xG than our opponents.
Again, this stat doesn't mean everything but no team has stayed up with our xG difference extrapolated.
As to how it compares to the rest of the league, you can sort the Prem Table by xGD (if you're interested) on fbref: https://fbref.com/en/comps/9/Premier-League-Stats
It's not yet updated to include todays game but we are bottom of the Premier league and the only team to be in negative double digits for xGD.
Again, for those interested, our xGD per 90 is -1.35
The worst out of any team last season was Sheffield United with -1.01
There is a huge amount of work to do. |
From 2-0 up, we notched another 0.5 xG before half time. It's not unlikely that we pick up that third goal. |  | | |
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| Ignore all the noise and pundits who only see the result on 01:47 - Oct 27 with 1570 views | Ryorry |
| Ignore all the noise and pundits who only see the result on 00:12 - Oct 27 by itfc_statman |
3-0 would have been unlikely, based on xG. Which you have to understand is the likelihood of that chance resulting in a goal.
They created 7 "big chances" to our 4. It would have been pretty criminal had Brentford not won that game, although we'd all have taken it.
It was actually only the Villa game in this entire season so far where we've had a higher xG than our opponents.
Again, this stat doesn't mean everything but no team has stayed up with our xG difference extrapolated.
As to how it compares to the rest of the league, you can sort the Prem Table by xGD (if you're interested) on fbref: https://fbref.com/en/comps/9/Premier-League-Stats
It's not yet updated to include todays game but we are bottom of the Premier league and the only team to be in negative double digits for xGD.
Again, for those interested, our xGD per 90 is -1.35
The worst out of any team last season was Sheffield United with -1.01
There is a huge amount of work to do. |
That completely ignores the teams we’ve played against incl Citeh, ‘pool, Villa; 5 away games; a huge injury list (including to key players) which continues to disrupt any possibility of a settled side that can get to know each other and a system etc.
Stats don’t tell you everything.
We may well strengthen come January, as we have done before. [Post edited 27 Oct 2024 1:50]
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| Ignore all the noise and pundits who only see the result on 01:59 - Oct 27 with 1529 views | Perublue |
| Ignore all the noise and pundits who only see the result on 01:47 - Oct 27 by Ryorry |
That completely ignores the teams we’ve played against incl Citeh, ‘pool, Villa; 5 away games; a huge injury list (including to key players) which continues to disrupt any possibility of a settled side that can get to know each other and a system etc.
Stats don’t tell you everything.
We may well strengthen come January, as we have done before. [Post edited 27 Oct 2024 1:50]
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The never say die attitude we have shown the last 2 seasons IS still there..we Ipswich'd so many teams the last few seasons...and keep running off at half time boys it really worries the oppo especially after a hard thought and physical 1st half. [Post edited 27 Oct 2024 1:00]
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| Ignore all the noise and pundits who only see the result on 14:17 - Oct 28 with 1088 views | itfc_statman |
| Ignore all the noise and pundits who only see the result on 01:47 - Oct 27 by Ryorry |
That completely ignores the teams we’ve played against incl Citeh, ‘pool, Villa; 5 away games; a huge injury list (including to key players) which continues to disrupt any possibility of a settled side that can get to know each other and a system etc.
Stats don’t tell you everything.
We may well strengthen come January, as we have done before. [Post edited 27 Oct 2024 1:50]
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Yep, I'd never argue, stats require context etc but you normally take a 10 game spell as a decent "sample size" to see where we're at.
And for every metric really we're bottom of the league. Of course, it doesn't show the fight and desire and things like that - which we still show and demonstrate well, it's just not enough at this level.
With the updated data from the weekend, We have an xGD of -13.6
It equates to a -1.51 xGD per game
For context on just how bad that is, like, really bad, is Sheffield United's the season before was -1.01 and they conceded 104 goals and attained 16 points.
Or go back to Norwich's last embarrassing attempt, they were -1.14 and only got 22 points.
And whilst stats don't tell the story, the xGD table very rarely gets the bottom 3 wrong on a projection. | | | |
| Ignore all the noise and pundits who only see the result on 14:54 - Oct 28 with 966 views | Vic |
| Ignore all the noise and pundits who only see the result on 23:29 - Oct 26 by FrimleyBlue |
As I said earlier. I just hope KM learns from that game.
Stick hutch on the right next week with oshea. Unless jounson is back.
Jack clarke is a finisher defo not one from the start. The cover szmodics gave davis was excellent from the first minute. Jack hasn't done that when he has played from the start.
Hirst has to start
Phillips and cajuste will be an epic cm partnership. It had to be given time to flourish
Drop the keeper [Post edited 26 Oct 2024 23:30]
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Frimmers, I agree with you about how Szmodders tracks back better than Clarke. Bring young Jack on later. The right hand side spot is not so clear cut. Results were better last season when Burns was playing so i'd leave him there and let Hutch drift out there when necessary to keep the oppo defenders honest.
Was very impressed with Cajuste - but bet he knackered himself and won;t be fit for this weekend. Muric needs to stay in - one poor throw and a poor effort for the 4th goal (but how much of that was down to a shout from O'Shea? His save from the 1v1 immediately before Clarke's OG has been forgotten in the pain of what followed. He's doing OK in my book. |  |
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| Ignore all the noise and pundits who only see the result on 14:59 - Oct 28 with 945 views | Vaughan8 |
| Ignore all the noise and pundits who only see the result on 23:42 - Oct 26 by itfc_statman |
As I said elsewhere but relevant here, it's not just the result.
I looked at it from a statistical point of view as I have done every game this season and realistically there was only going to be one winner.
They created 4.1 xG vs our 1.30 xG
It's been a worrying trend all season. I know some don't like the stats side of the game but you can guarantee the analytical team will be looking at this and be hugely concerned.
What stats don't tell you is heart and desire. We show a lot of that but that doesn't keep you in this division. |
This seems to be in line with what was said on the radio Saturday as I was listening to the updates on 5live/Talksport.
I think at 3-2, Brentford had a few good chances to "finish it off". From the sounds of it they had 6 or 7 good chances.
Stats can sometimes be misleading but certainly we must be the most error prone and the give teams the most easiest chances.
We can't have had many "good" goals scored against us this season. | | | |
| Ignore all the noise and pundits who only see the result on 15:00 - Oct 28 with 945 views | Vic |
| Ignore all the noise and pundits who only see the result on 14:17 - Oct 28 by itfc_statman |
Yep, I'd never argue, stats require context etc but you normally take a 10 game spell as a decent "sample size" to see where we're at.
And for every metric really we're bottom of the league. Of course, it doesn't show the fight and desire and things like that - which we still show and demonstrate well, it's just not enough at this level.
With the updated data from the weekend, We have an xGD of -13.6
It equates to a -1.51 xGD per game
For context on just how bad that is, like, really bad, is Sheffield United's the season before was -1.01 and they conceded 104 goals and attained 16 points.
Or go back to Norwich's last embarrassing attempt, they were -1.14 and only got 22 points.
And whilst stats don't tell the story, the xGD table very rarely gets the bottom 3 wrong on a projection. |
They are not the sort of stats we're used to seeing and really, really need to pick up. We can excuse them for now as we're new in the league, we've got a young team, we're ravaged with injuries, etc, etc - but if they don;t pick up we will be in big trouble. It's going to be interesting to see just how KM navigates through this and if he can bring about the upturn we all hope for. | |
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| Ignore all the noise and pundits who only see the result on 15:02 - Oct 28 with 937 views | victorysquad |
| Ignore all the noise and pundits who only see the result on 14:17 - Oct 28 by itfc_statman |
Yep, I'd never argue, stats require context etc but you normally take a 10 game spell as a decent "sample size" to see where we're at.
And for every metric really we're bottom of the league. Of course, it doesn't show the fight and desire and things like that - which we still show and demonstrate well, it's just not enough at this level.
With the updated data from the weekend, We have an xGD of -13.6
It equates to a -1.51 xGD per game
For context on just how bad that is, like, really bad, is Sheffield United's the season before was -1.01 and they conceded 104 goals and attained 16 points.
Or go back to Norwich's last embarrassing attempt, they were -1.14 and only got 22 points.
And whilst stats don't tell the story, the xGD table very rarely gets the bottom 3 wrong on a projection. |
Whilst I don't dispute the xGD table usually correctly identifies the bottom three. I do think we have a very strong hierarchy running through the club now, and a very joined up club. Therefore, there is zero chance McKenna, Ashton and ORG are just looking at these stats thinking, "oh, I wonder what we can do, we are screwed". They must know what it takes to move us up to above the relegation places in terms of xGD. Whether it can be done through coaching + extra players in Jan, it is not impossible, this is just a game of football, we just need to come out the right side of games a few more times in the remaining 3/4 of the season. It is not unreasonable to expect us to be better after 9 games of adjustment either.
We need to convert one of our losses into a win (ie. either Brentford or Everton) and one of our draws into a win (probably Villa) and we would be in the right place.
btw - I think you are right to take a data driven view in your analysis but I am sure the club will be as well.
When we have Greaves + Axel back, I think we will start to see what the maximum this side can be, I think now certain players have settled in, we have perhaps worked out the best way to get the most of the players, this will mean we can perform at a level that keeps us just above the relegation zone. But I would still expect to see another 2 or 3 lined up for January to strengthen us further. | |
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