| Assad gone 07:57 - Dec 8 with 8221 views | Guthrum |
Hopefully the Syrian rebels stick to their moderate line, can cooperate and the future is brighter for that nation. |  |
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| Assad gone on 08:05 - Dec 8 with 3801 views | homer_123 |
Given HTS's violent past I fear that it won't be the case. |  |
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| Assad gone on 08:10 - Dec 8 with 3786 views | Guthrum |
| Assad gone on 08:05 - Dec 8 by homer_123 |
Given HTS's violent past I fear that it won't be the case. |
Tho they have been working for some years to distance themselves from al Qaeda. All the rhetoric - including overnight - has been very moderate and inclusive.
But they are islamists, so it may not be entirely liberal by Western standards. | |
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| Assad gone on 08:16 - Dec 8 with 3759 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
Yeah right - leopard and spots. It’s just a rebranding of the same violent people:-
https://www.hrw.org/news/2024/12/04/syria-civilians-risk-amid-renewed-hostilitie
“In 2019, Human Rights Watch documented that HTS had arbitrarily arrested scores of residents in areas under their control in Idlib, Hama, and Aleppo governorates, apparently because of their peaceful work documenting abuses or protesting the group’s rule. Six former detainees told Human Rights Watch that they were tortured while in HTS custody.
In February 2024, large protests led by civilian activists erupted in HTS-controlled areas, demanding detainee releases, governance reforms, and the removal of al-Jolani. According to the UN-mandated Syria Commission of Inquiry’s September 2024 report, protests, which continued sporadically for months thereafter, followed arrest campaigns targeting HTS members, rival groups, political parties, and civilians, including women and children as young as 7. It reported that detainees were subjected to torture and ill-treatment.”
Sure Assad is gone, but it’s unlikely a bunch of warring factions and Islamic extremists is going to bring peace to the country. |  | | |
| Assad gone on 08:22 - Dec 8 with 3714 views | noggin |
I'm at work, with a Syrian refugee (now Norwegian citizen) He's walking around with the biggest smile on his face today. His parents and siblings are living in a camp in Jordan. Their dream is to return home to Damascus. I hope, one day soon, he can be reunited with his family. |  |
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| Assad gone on 08:29 - Dec 8 with 3682 views | BloomBlue |
Trouble is there is more than one group of rebels in Syria, more likely to be like Libya and become a constant civil war |  | | |
| Assad gone on 08:30 - Dec 8 with 3665 views | Guthrum |
| Assad gone on 08:16 - Dec 8 by SuperKieranMcKenna |
Yeah right - leopard and spots. It’s just a rebranding of the same violent people:-
https://www.hrw.org/news/2024/12/04/syria-civilians-risk-amid-renewed-hostilitie
“In 2019, Human Rights Watch documented that HTS had arbitrarily arrested scores of residents in areas under their control in Idlib, Hama, and Aleppo governorates, apparently because of their peaceful work documenting abuses or protesting the group’s rule. Six former detainees told Human Rights Watch that they were tortured while in HTS custody.
In February 2024, large protests led by civilian activists erupted in HTS-controlled areas, demanding detainee releases, governance reforms, and the removal of al-Jolani. According to the UN-mandated Syria Commission of Inquiry’s September 2024 report, protests, which continued sporadically for months thereafter, followed arrest campaigns targeting HTS members, rival groups, political parties, and civilians, including women and children as young as 7. It reported that detainees were subjected to torture and ill-treatment.”
Sure Assad is gone, but it’s unlikely a bunch of warring factions and Islamic extremists is going to bring peace to the country. |
Depends how clever they are. There's a big wave of public goodwill to ride.
The biggest problems are economic, which will take a lot ot overcome. | |
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| Assad gone on 08:33 - Dec 8 with 3649 views | Guthrum |
| Assad gone on 08:29 - Dec 8 by BloomBlue |
Trouble is there is more than one group of rebels in Syria, more likely to be like Libya and become a constant civil war |
The Turks are more of an issue. Whether the factions they control continue to attack the Kurds. | |
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| Assad gone on 08:47 - Dec 8 with 3604 views | DJR |
| Assad gone on 08:16 - Dec 8 by SuperKieranMcKenna |
Yeah right - leopard and spots. It’s just a rebranding of the same violent people:-
https://www.hrw.org/news/2024/12/04/syria-civilians-risk-amid-renewed-hostilitie
“In 2019, Human Rights Watch documented that HTS had arbitrarily arrested scores of residents in areas under their control in Idlib, Hama, and Aleppo governorates, apparently because of their peaceful work documenting abuses or protesting the group’s rule. Six former detainees told Human Rights Watch that they were tortured while in HTS custody.
In February 2024, large protests led by civilian activists erupted in HTS-controlled areas, demanding detainee releases, governance reforms, and the removal of al-Jolani. According to the UN-mandated Syria Commission of Inquiry’s September 2024 report, protests, which continued sporadically for months thereafter, followed arrest campaigns targeting HTS members, rival groups, political parties, and civilians, including women and children as young as 7. It reported that detainees were subjected to torture and ill-treatment.”
Sure Assad is gone, but it’s unlikely a bunch of warring factions and Islamic extremists is going to bring peace to the country. |
That link had a link to the following link which I posted on another thread.
https://www.uscirf.gov/sites/default/files/2022-11/2022%20Factsheet%20-%20HTS-Sy
Here are some extracts that I posted on that thread.
"Although HTS has cut formal ties with al-Qaeda, engaged in self-promotional
interviews with international media, and attempted to rebrand itself as a legitimate
civic authority, it remains a potent source of a Salafi-jihadism that restricts the
religious freedom of non-conforming Sunni Muslims and threatens the property,
safety, and existence of religious minority groups such as Alawites, Christians, and
Druze. Further, HTS’s cultivation of a mutually and politically expedient relationship
with Turkey—which itself represents a distinct threat to vulnerable religious minority
groups via its military incursions in northern Syria—compounds the perilous religious
freedom conditions in and near Idlib."
"In 2021 and 2022, HTS has continued to perpetrate some
of the same human rights abuses—including torture,
forced disappearance, rape and other sexual violence,
and killing in detention—that the United Nations’
Independent International Commission of Inquiry on
Syria documented for the organization and its predecessors
through 2020. Having taken over government prisons
and established additional jails, HTS has used sectarian
motivated detention and related abduction and demands
for ransom against members of minority groups.
"Religious minorities, including non-Sunni Muslims and
Druze—both longstanding targets of Sunni rebel groups’
discrimination, harassment, and compelled Sunnism—
have converted to Sunni Islam or fled HTS territories, and
those who remain are not represented in the official bodies
governing the area." |  | | |
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| Assad gone on 08:49 - Dec 8 with 3597 views | Illinoisblue |
Give it Warnock end of year |  |
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| Assad gone on 09:10 - Dec 8 with 3495 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
| Assad gone on 08:47 - Dec 8 by DJR |
That link had a link to the following link which I posted on another thread.
https://www.uscirf.gov/sites/default/files/2022-11/2022%20Factsheet%20-%20HTS-Sy
Here are some extracts that I posted on that thread.
"Although HTS has cut formal ties with al-Qaeda, engaged in self-promotional
interviews with international media, and attempted to rebrand itself as a legitimate
civic authority, it remains a potent source of a Salafi-jihadism that restricts the
religious freedom of non-conforming Sunni Muslims and threatens the property,
safety, and existence of religious minority groups such as Alawites, Christians, and
Druze. Further, HTS’s cultivation of a mutually and politically expedient relationship
with Turkey—which itself represents a distinct threat to vulnerable religious minority
groups via its military incursions in northern Syria—compounds the perilous religious
freedom conditions in and near Idlib."
"In 2021 and 2022, HTS has continued to perpetrate some
of the same human rights abuses—including torture,
forced disappearance, rape and other sexual violence,
and killing in detention—that the United Nations’
Independent International Commission of Inquiry on
Syria documented for the organization and its predecessors
through 2020. Having taken over government prisons
and established additional jails, HTS has used sectarian
motivated detention and related abduction and demands
for ransom against members of minority groups.
"Religious minorities, including non-Sunni Muslims and
Druze—both longstanding targets of Sunni rebel groups’
discrimination, harassment, and compelled Sunnism—
have converted to Sunni Islam or fled HTS territories, and
those who remain are not represented in the official bodies
governing the area." |
Indeed. I’m not sure economic development is going to be high on their list of priorities. If recent history has shown us one throng, regime change in the Middle East rarely results in stability and prosperity. Not that Assad wasn’t a monster (he’s a genocidal maniac), I’m just not convinced what has followed won’t be even worse still. | | | |
| Assad gone on 09:15 - Dec 8 with 3483 views | DJR |
Leaving aside minorities, the other group one has to fear for is women to the extent that Islamist measures impact on all or large parts of the Syria. | | | |
| Assad gone on 09:22 - Dec 8 with 3448 views | BlueBadger |
| Assad gone on 08:22 - Dec 8 by noggin |
I'm at work, with a Syrian refugee (now Norwegian citizen) He's walking around with the biggest smile on his face today. His parents and siblings are living in a camp in Jordan. Their dream is to return home to Damascus. I hope, one day soon, he can be reunited with his family. |
That can't be right. Great minds around here have said that all they want is steal our jobs and claim unemployment whilst fondling all our wives. |  |
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| Assad gone on 09:25 - Dec 8 with 3434 views | Swansea_Blue |
Frying pans and fires spring to mind. But I don’t know which faction is which. |  |
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| Assad gone on 09:27 - Dec 8 with 3422 views | bluelagos |
Was thinking this morning of the likelihood of a peaceful future rather than a fractured and violent one...
Any recent examples of a violent oppressive regime being forced out and then replaced by peaceful democracies? A few in the Eastern block and South Africa are the two that jump out to me.
Edit: Would add Liberia - the civil war had unimaginably barbaric yet they have managed to establish a peaceful setting since. [Post edited 8 Dec 2024 9:31]
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| Assad gone on 09:29 - Dec 8 with 3405 views | Radlett_blue |
| Assad gone on 09:10 - Dec 8 by SuperKieranMcKenna |
Indeed. I’m not sure economic development is going to be high on their list of priorities. If recent history has shown us one throng, regime change in the Middle East rarely results in stability and prosperity. Not that Assad wasn’t a monster (he’s a genocidal maniac), I’m just not convinced what has followed won’t be even worse still. |
Iraq is the poster child for this one. Syria, like Iraq, was only held together by a brutal dictator (Assad Snr) & Jnr hasn't been quite as successful as Dad. Whatever replaces him, it certainly won't be a Western style democracy & it could well become another failed state like Libya. |  |
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| Assad gone on 09:34 - Dec 8 with 3388 views | bluelagos |
| Assad gone on 09:29 - Dec 8 by Radlett_blue |
Iraq is the poster child for this one. Syria, like Iraq, was only held together by a brutal dictator (Assad Snr) & Jnr hasn't been quite as successful as Dad. Whatever replaces him, it certainly won't be a Western style democracy & it could well become another failed state like Libya. |
Surely Syria already is a failed state to all intents and purposes?
Agree the future is far from certain and could get worse, but am struggling to see how the removal of Assad can be a bad thing in the long run. | |
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| Assad gone on 09:36 - Dec 8 with 3360 views | noggin |
| Assad gone on 09:22 - Dec 8 by BlueBadger |
That can't be right. Great minds around here have said that all they want is steal our jobs and claim unemployment whilst fondling all our wives. |
At least it might solve the housing crisis, when they leave and sell the properties they were given when they stepped off the boats. | |
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| Assad gone on 09:40 - Dec 8 with 3350 views | Guthrum |
| Assad gone on 09:29 - Dec 8 by Radlett_blue |
Iraq is the poster child for this one. Syria, like Iraq, was only held together by a brutal dictator (Assad Snr) & Jnr hasn't been quite as successful as Dad. Whatever replaces him, it certainly won't be a Western style democracy & it could well become another failed state like Libya. |
Part of the problem is the obsession with retaining national borders which are relatively recent and drawn more with an eye to colonial (or colonial withdrawal) convenience than socio-ethnic realities on the ground. Added to that is the primacy of resource extraction in their economies, of which each grouping naturally wants to take the largest possible share for themselves. | |
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| Assad gone on 10:10 - Dec 8 with 3282 views | Guthrum |
| Assad gone on 09:27 - Dec 8 by bluelagos |
Was thinking this morning of the likelihood of a peaceful future rather than a fractured and violent one...
Any recent examples of a violent oppressive regime being forced out and then replaced by peaceful democracies? A few in the Eastern block and South Africa are the two that jump out to me.
Edit: Would add Liberia - the civil war had unimaginably barbaric yet they have managed to establish a peaceful setting since. [Post edited 8 Dec 2024 9:31]
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The outcome will also depend upon what other powers do, both regional (Iran, Turkey, Israel, Iraq) and global (Russia, the USA). All have been meddling in the country over the last 14 years and have their desires and agendas for the country. | |
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| Assad gone on 10:22 - Dec 8 with 3223 views | Radlett_blue |
| Assad gone on 09:34 - Dec 8 by bluelagos |
Surely Syria already is a failed state to all intents and purposes?
Agree the future is far from certain and could get worse, but am struggling to see how the removal of Assad can be a bad thing in the long run. |
Be careful what you wish for. Could be like sacking Paul Hurst & replacing him with Paul Lambert.
Western, especially American, intervention in the Middle East has rarely had positive results. As others have commented, some leader seem obsesses with maintaining national boundaries that were drawn up by Britain, France & the USA 100 or so years ago & which don't respect ethnic, tribal or religious divisions. They also seem obsessed with elections, until these produce a majority for Islamic fundamentalists, which often represent the only large cohesive entities in these parts. | |
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| Assad gone on 10:31 - Dec 8 with 3192 views | Pendejo |
Is this a sign that Russia could no longer provide the support they needed?
If so, is this good or bad news for Ukraine?
What other states were Russia propping up?
There's at least one on Africa isn't there?
What does it mean for them? |  |
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| Assad gone on 10:45 - Dec 8 with 3127 views | Guthrum |
| Assad gone on 10:31 - Dec 8 by Pendejo |
Is this a sign that Russia could no longer provide the support they needed?
If so, is this good or bad news for Ukraine?
What other states were Russia propping up?
There's at least one on Africa isn't there?
What does it mean for them? |
Probably a case of can't rather than won't. Most of their "mercenaries" are currently in Africa (the supply line for whom is now effectively cut). The regular forces are tied up in Ukraine. They simply do not have the reserves to cover all bases adequately*, relying upon ally Iran and their Hezbollah proxies (both of which have taken a serious beating themselves).
* Including protection their vastly long southern border, sensitive areas in the Far East and the Arctic. | |
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| Assad gone on 10:54 - Dec 8 with 3064 views | Guthrum |
| Assad gone on 10:22 - Dec 8 by Radlett_blue |
Be careful what you wish for. Could be like sacking Paul Hurst & replacing him with Paul Lambert.
Western, especially American, intervention in the Middle East has rarely had positive results. As others have commented, some leader seem obsesses with maintaining national boundaries that were drawn up by Britain, France & the USA 100 or so years ago & which don't respect ethnic, tribal or religious divisions. They also seem obsessed with elections, until these produce a majority for Islamic fundamentalists, which often represent the only large cohesive entities in these parts. |
The Middle East has always been a volatile region, due to its strategic importance as the crossroads between continents and frequently a boundary between superpowers.
Even the Ottoman Empire's apparent peace masked unrest, secession and violence, from oppression of the Arabs to the Armenian Massacres. | |
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| Assad gone on 11:38 - Dec 8 with 2957 views | BlueBadger |
| Assad gone on 09:36 - Dec 8 by noggin |
At least it might solve the housing crisis, when they leave and sell the properties they were given when they stepped off the boats. |
Probably mean the arse is going to fall out of the market for flatscreen tellies as well. You'll be able to buy them for a fiver a go. | |
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| Assad gone on 11:42 - Dec 8 with 2930 views | ArnoldMoorhen |
| Assad gone on 08:49 - Dec 8 by Illinoisblue |
Give it Warnock end of year |
I'm hearing that Alan Curbishley has a home near Aleppo. | | | |
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