| The sad gulf in quality between the leagues 13:59 - Jan 20 with 2172 views | TractorFrog |
If you rank the 2023/2024 Ipswich Town squad in order of how many championship games they started that year, the top 11 goes:
Hladky, Davis, Chaplin, Morsy, Woolfenden, Burgess, Luongo, Burns, Broadhead, Clarke, Hirst.
10/11 of those started in the league one promotion game against Exeter in 2022/2023. The other being Hladky who was on the bench.
Effectively, the same team that got promoted from league one with 98 points got promoted from the championship with 96 points. That shows a very small difference between those leagues.
Of course, I am cheating a lot with those stats. The lineup against Exeter wasn't the one that had the most starts across 2022/2023; that would have Donacien, Ladapo, Harness and Evans filling places 8-11 with the four January signings just behind. The Exeter team was undoubtably our best 11 of that season. They played seven times in that exact combination and won all seven, just one short of the record, I believe, and they are the only 11 players still in the squad now. Had we had that team all season, we would have won the league with well above 100 points, perhaps above 120. They were by far the best team in the league, no matter what the Plymouth fans say.
Also, the team improved significantly during the time even though it was the same players, and new signings like Hutchinson, Tuanzebe and Moore also made a huge impact and being far better alternate options than their predecessors. Note that approximately one year after drawing 2-2 against Sheffield Wednesday at Portman Road while battling them for promotion, Ipswich beat Wednesday 6-0, now at opposite ends of the championship table.
But the best form of that season came at the start when it was still the league one team playing. And the four January signings of that league one season ranked 7,9,10,11 in terms of games started in the championship. The crux of the team; the outfield players who made the most starts in both seasons, were Woolfenden, Burgess, Davis, Morsy, Chaplin, Burns. These players were rewarded for playing almost every game in a league one promotion season, by playing almost every game in the championship, and were able to compete, as it should be. In this case, they got another promotion, which is very unusual and I wouldn't expect to be the norm as this Ipswich team was a very special one, but a position in the top half was expected even before the season.
This is a long-winded and waffly way of saying that nearly the same team that scored 98 points in league one was then able to score 96 points in the championship, with all the caveats mentioned above to show why it's not quite that simple, but still that is demonstrating not a huge difference between those leagues. The teams that get promoted from league one to the championship can very much compete without a whole host of signings. It was nice to still be able to support the same players who got us to the championship for another season.
However, the gulf in quality between the Championship and the Premier League is so huge that the same can't be said this year. The 11 players with the most starts so far this season includes just three of those mentioned above (Morsy, Davis, Burns), as well as Hutchinson of course who was number 12 last season. We have spent 120 million on effectively a whole new starting 11, and yet are still in the relegation zone. It is nice that all the 11 players from the Exeter game have played in a few matches this year, but generally they are almost all second-choice in each of their positions now, and the first choice players are new. Maybe this causes the fans to get more annoyed because the players who are losing games are ones who don't have the same credit in the bank as the ones who got us here, yet the new signings are mostly upgrades.
So the teams that finish top of the Championship are a long way from the level required in the Premier League, which is a real shame because it means most players in a championship promotion squad are not entirely fighting for their own position in the Premier League. I know that this Ipswich team is a bit of an unusual example because they were punching above their weight, and it was more than the sum of its parts in the championship. But even so, it doesn't seem right.
In short, the gulf in quality between the Championship and the Premier League is so great that our second-string 11 is good enough to finish second in the championship on 96 points, but our first 11 which cost £120 million is perhaps not quite good enough to escape relegation from the Premier League. That is crazy, and I think a bit of a sad indictment on English football. |  |
| They'd all laugh at me if they knew what I was trying to do. To create a new strain of super-wine in half-an-hour with a fraction of nature's resources and a FOOL for an assistant. 'Bernard Black, he's mad,' they'd say, 'he's insane, he's dangerous.' Well I'll show them! I'll show them all! | | Poll: | Who should start in CM with Cajuste? |
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| The sad gulf in quality between the leagues on 14:12 - Jan 20 with 2086 views | Illinoisblue |
City can bring on a 100m player in Grealish just for him to run around for a bit and offer nothing. But the real problem we’re up against is what used to be top league bottom fodder are now so so so much better and loaded with genuine quality. The evolution of those clubs makes it even harder for promoted teams now, especially one like us who rose rapidly.
If Sheff Utd and Burnley come back up there’s nothing to suggest they won’t embarrass themselves again. And it’ll be the same for us should we go done and bounce back. |  |
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| The sad gulf in quality between the leagues on 14:13 - Jan 20 with 2069 views | Marshalls_Mullet |
I think ditching so many of last years players in favour of expensive but often unproven signings has had an effect.
We've looked far more cohesive when we've had more of last seasons players in the team.
Tricky balance. |  |
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| The sad gulf in quality between the leagues on 14:18 - Jan 20 with 2039 views | TractorFrog |
| The sad gulf in quality between the leagues on 14:13 - Jan 20 by Marshalls_Mullet |
I think ditching so many of last years players in favour of expensive but often unproven signings has had an effect.
We've looked far more cohesive when we've had more of last seasons players in the team.
Tricky balance. |
That's true. In both the Chelsea and Wolves wins, we had six from the league one side in the starting eleven, and nine in total who were in one of those two games (Davis, Morsy, Burns played both. Chaplin, Burgess, Clarke played against Wolves. Walton, Woolfenden, Broadhead played against Chelsea). | |
| They'd all laugh at me if they knew what I was trying to do. To create a new strain of super-wine in half-an-hour with a fraction of nature's resources and a FOOL for an assistant. 'Bernard Black, he's mad,' they'd say, 'he's insane, he's dangerous.' Well I'll show them! I'll show them all! | | Poll: | Who should start in CM with Cajuste? |
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| The sad gulf in quality between the leagues on 14:23 - Jan 20 with 1965 views | OldFart71 |
It all comes down to money I'm afraid. That doesn't mean it's impossible to pick a gem for a few million quid. But to pick 11 gems is impossible. Town have bought and loaned what they can afford which is a mixture of players out of favour with Premier clubs or the best of the Championship. If that's not good enough then so be it. They have tried. It appears harder and harder for a club to be promoted to the Premier League and stay there . Not impossible but going on this and last season it does appear the task is certainly not getting any easier. Life in general seems to be going that way in that the rich have got far richer in the past twenty years whilst the amount struggling just keeps increasing year on year. |  | | |
| The sad gulf in quality between the leagues on 14:29 - Jan 20 with 1908 views | only_one_sir_bobby |
The gap will only get bigger should the three promoted sides all get relegated for the second season in a row.
It will soon become virtually impossible for promoted sides to survive. | | | |
| The sad gulf in quality between the leagues on 15:50 - Jan 20 with 1653 views | bsw72 |
| The sad gulf in quality between the leagues on 14:18 - Jan 20 by TractorFrog |
That's true. In both the Chelsea and Wolves wins, we had six from the league one side in the starting eleven, and nine in total who were in one of those two games (Davis, Morsy, Burns played both. Chaplin, Burgess, Clarke played against Wolves. Walton, Woolfenden, Broadhead played against Chelsea). |
Didn't we also have significant numbers from L1 and Champ against the likes of Liverpool, Man City away, Bournemouth home, Forest away, Newcastle home all of which we lost. |  | | |
| The sad gulf in quality between the leagues on 15:59 - Jan 20 with 1613 views | Dubtractor |
| The sad gulf in quality between the leagues on 15:50 - Jan 20 by bsw72 |
Didn't we also have significant numbers from L1 and Champ against the likes of Liverpool, Man City away, Bournemouth home, Forest away, Newcastle home all of which we lost. |
Yeah, its a bit selective to say we had some of the league one players in the games we won, but to ignore all the games we've lost with them.
The reality is we're third bottom with a mix of players, with even the new additions not allowing us to compete as well as we'd like.
It's not just about us though, Southampton and Leicester came up with stronger squads than us, both adding new signings too (especially saints), and both gave found it even tougher than we have.
Illy's point about the mid table and lower teams is the kicker. You can grudgingly accept that we're miles off the big guns, but the squad quality of teams like Brentford, Brighton, Palace, Bournemouth etc is just light years from us, having been built up over a number of years.
Those teams can buy a player and spend a season getting them up to speed, we've needed everyone to hit the ground running. [Post edited 20 Jan 16:00]
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| The sad gulf in quality between the leagues on 18:06 - Jan 20 with 1419 views | TractorFrog |
| The sad gulf in quality between the leagues on 15:50 - Jan 20 by bsw72 |
Didn't we also have significant numbers from L1 and Champ against the likes of Liverpool, Man City away, Bournemouth home, Forest away, Newcastle home all of which we lost. |
Overall the linear regression line with (league 1 players per game) on the x-axis and (points per game) on the y-axis, has the equation y=0.056098x+0.492683. As the gradient is positive, we average slightly more points per game with more players from the league 1 team than without it (so the predicted PPG is around 0.661 with three players compared with 0.829 with six). But the R-value (showing how close the results are to this line of best fit) is tiny so it's not enough to be significant. And this method also tells me that Ipswich score more goals, and concede more goals, the more league 1 players are in the team.
The point of the post wasn't really about having more league one players improving the team, however. It was more about wishing that it could be realistic for a team that finishes second in the Championship with 96 points to compete in the Premier League, as right now it isn't. We had to spend £120 million on signings and are still struggling to stay up. [Post edited 20 Jan 18:13]
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| They'd all laugh at me if they knew what I was trying to do. To create a new strain of super-wine in half-an-hour with a fraction of nature's resources and a FOOL for an assistant. 'Bernard Black, he's mad,' they'd say, 'he's insane, he's dangerous.' Well I'll show them! I'll show them all! | | Poll: | Who should start in CM with Cajuste? |
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| The sad gulf in quality between the leagues on 18:18 - Jan 20 with 1369 views | MK1 |
It's a tough ask for us, as we rose so quickly. If you can build in the Championship for a few seasons and hold on to your best players, then you have a good crack at staying up. We had to invest in the squad, whether we have done that correctly is subjective, but needed and will continue to be needed. I would have liked more of a mix of younger trading players and those with slightly older heads that we have lacked at this level this season. Easy to sit in front of my keypad to say that this and that should be done, but I still hope we can get some experienced heads in this window. We have signed 4 or 5 trade players, so a few stalwart, PL hardened players would be helpful in our quest to stay up. |  |
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| The sad gulf in quality between the leagues on 19:29 - Jan 20 with 1270 views | Swansea_Blue |
| The sad gulf in quality between the leagues on 14:13 - Jan 20 by Marshalls_Mullet |
I think ditching so many of last years players in favour of expensive but often unproven signings has had an effect.
We've looked far more cohesive when we've had more of last seasons players in the team.
Tricky balance. |
It does make you wonder how we’d have got on with only a few changes to the starting 11 |  |
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| The sad gulf in quality between the leagues on 19:34 - Jan 20 with 1251 views | ArnieM |
I keep saying the squad this season is essentially still the League One squad.... doing bloody well they are too. Not thst those f wits on Sky or MOTD will give us any real credit. We're ABOVE two clubs with supposed Plastic League squads! |  |
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| The sad gulf in quality between the leagues on 19:57 - Jan 20 with 1212 views | bournemouthblue |
| The sad gulf in quality between the leagues on 14:12 - Jan 20 by Illinoisblue |
City can bring on a 100m player in Grealish just for him to run around for a bit and offer nothing. But the real problem we’re up against is what used to be top league bottom fodder are now so so so much better and loaded with genuine quality. The evolution of those clubs makes it even harder for promoted teams now, especially one like us who rose rapidly.
If Sheff Utd and Burnley come back up there’s nothing to suggest they won’t embarrass themselves again. And it’ll be the same for us should we go done and bounce back. |
It's a real problem if the promoted three keep coming straight back down
You have 17 sides all with several years of that £100 million every year to trade up |  |
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| The sad gulf in quality between the leagues on 20:53 - Jan 20 with 1067 views | wischip |
Does the same thing happen in the Italian, Spanish & German leagues ? I don't know myself, I just notice the same clubs from those nations always seem to be in the Champions League year after year so I assume they have 4-6 clubs who have built up a much higher quality squad than the rest of their leagues and clubs getting promoted yoyo like in England unable to close the gap which becomes wider with each year of this system. |  | | |
| The sad gulf in quality between the leagues on 21:30 - Jan 20 with 964 views | LA_Tractor_Boy |
| The sad gulf in quality between the leagues on 19:57 - Jan 20 by bournemouthblue |
It's a real problem if the promoted three keep coming straight back down
You have 17 sides all with several years of that £100 million every year to trade up |
Also shows how relegation for an established PL team can set them back years.
Leicester finished top half for 7 seasons, were relegated and promoted but are now cannon fodder. Same with Soton who were an established PL team who never really flirted with relegation, but are now a Championship team in waiting. | | | |
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