| Incredible story 21:12 - Mar 16 with 4384 views | itfcjoe |
The UK only realised "in the last few days" that attempts to "mitigate" the coronavirus pandemic would not work, and that it needed to shift to a strategy to "suppress", according to a report by a team of experts who have been advising the government
https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/coronavirus-uk-strategy-deaths |  |
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| Incredible story on 21:16 - Mar 16 with 2845 views | sparks |
One scientist disagrees with another. Thats basically the story. |  |
| The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to the presence of those who think they've found it.
(Sir Terry Pratchett) | | Poll: | Is Fred drunk this morning? |
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| Incredible story on 21:19 - Mar 16 with 2827 views | itfcjoe |
| Incredible story on 21:16 - Mar 16 by sparks |
One scientist disagrees with another. Thats basically the story. |
Is it not scientists advising Govt change mind and now think what they previously thought is now wrong | |
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| Incredible story on 21:23 - Mar 16 with 2788 views | Guthrum |
Presumably the experts considered it feasible up to the point numbers really started to balloon (the number of known cases has almost tripled since Friday) when they realised it wasn't going to work, so changed tack. Seems fairly sensible to me. |  |
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| Incredible story on 21:23 - Mar 16 with 2786 views | DanTheMan |
I'm slightly concerned this might be life for the next 18 months.
If that's true, going to have to cancel my wedding which is a bit of a bummer. |  |
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| Incredible story on 21:24 - Mar 16 with 2778 views | Trequartista |
Why would we need to lockdown for 12-18 months when China is now opening things up 3 months later, with a trickle of new cases? |  |
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| Incredible story on 21:25 - Mar 16 with 2761 views | Guthrum |
| Incredible story on 21:23 - Mar 16 by DanTheMan |
I'm slightly concerned this might be life for the next 18 months.
If that's true, going to have to cancel my wedding which is a bit of a bummer. |
Unfortunately, there may have to be a lot of that. But don't cancel it just yet - the situation is very fluid and scenarios being presented are often worst-case. | |
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| Incredible story on 21:27 - Mar 16 with 2733 views | Guthrum |
| Incredible story on 21:24 - Mar 16 by Trequartista |
Why would we need to lockdown for 12-18 months when China is now opening things up 3 months later, with a trickle of new cases? |
There may yet be a second wave in China once they release the lockdown - if they really are. | |
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| Incredible story on 21:28 - Mar 16 with 2713 views | homer_123 |
| Incredible story on 21:27 - Mar 16 by Guthrum |
There may yet be a second wave in China once they release the lockdown - if they really are. |
No sign of the lockdown easing there and...I suspect you are right. A second wave more likely. |  |
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| Incredible story on 21:31 - Mar 16 with 2667 views | Swansea_Blue |
| Incredible story on 21:23 - Mar 16 by Guthrum |
Presumably the experts considered it feasible up to the point numbers really started to balloon (the number of known cases has almost tripled since Friday) when they realised it wasn't going to work, so changed tack. Seems fairly sensible to me. |
I can’t foresee any scenario where they wouldn’t have been aware of infection rates from other countries and from knowledge about viruses in general. No way have the modellers been caught out in that way; not a chance. If they have they aren’t experts and shouldn’t be anywhere near the process. |  |
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| Incredible story on 21:45 - Mar 16 with 2586 views | Guthrum |
| Incredible story on 21:31 - Mar 16 by Swansea_Blue |
I can’t foresee any scenario where they wouldn’t have been aware of infection rates from other countries and from knowledge about viruses in general. No way have the modellers been caught out in that way; not a chance. If they have they aren’t experts and shouldn’t be anywhere near the process. |
I didn't say caught out. More they thought they could strike a slightly easier balance (for a while at least) between disease control and the economy, but time ran out and they had to switch (phase change rather than radical reversal). Perhaps things kicked off in earnest a bit sooner than our experts hoped. After all, nobody really knows exactly where the UK is on the Covid-19 timeline and parts of the country are in different places anyway. | |
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| Incredible story on 21:47 - Mar 16 with 2565 views | Guthrum |
So they are restarting the factories for economic reasons, having declared the outbreak over. This being the same government who tried to cover up that the outbreak was happening for several weeks. | |
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| Incredible story on 21:50 - Mar 16 with 2550 views | Trequartista |
| Incredible story on 21:47 - Mar 16 by Guthrum |
So they are restarting the factories for economic reasons, having declared the outbreak over. This being the same government who tried to cover up that the outbreak was happening for several weeks. |
Let's see what happens there. I read somewhere that a second wave is not inevitable because that is the assumption based on flu epidemics, and this is not flu. | |
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| Incredible story on 22:17 - Mar 16 with 2409 views | Guthrum |
| Incredible story on 21:50 - Mar 16 by Trequartista |
Let's see what happens there. I read somewhere that a second wave is not inevitable because that is the assumption based on flu epidemics, and this is not flu. |
Indeed about the danger of drawing too many parallels with 'Flu. But, on the other hand, the basic mechanics of infection work in certain ways. | |
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| Incredible story on 22:17 - Mar 16 with 2410 views | pointofblue |
| Incredible story on 21:50 - Mar 16 by Trequartista |
Let's see what happens there. I read somewhere that a second wave is not inevitable because that is the assumption based on flu epidemics, and this is not flu. |
Though it is the same family.
I think there was a logic behind the approach taken; it clearly hasn’t been as successful as they hoped - probably due to those who are asymptomatic inadvertently spreading the virus. Oddly the number of positive tests has declined over the past couple of days but I wonder whether we’ll see a leap in tomorrow’s figures, hence the change in tactics. |  |
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| Incredible story on 23:11 - Mar 16 with 2300 views | Trequartista |
| Incredible story on 22:17 - Mar 16 by pointofblue |
Though it is the same family.
I think there was a logic behind the approach taken; it clearly hasn’t been as successful as they hoped - probably due to those who are asymptomatic inadvertently spreading the virus. Oddly the number of positive tests has declined over the past couple of days but I wonder whether we’ll see a leap in tomorrow’s figures, hence the change in tactics. |
Positive tests mean little now because we are now not testing people who think they may have it - only the death figures are accurate. To be blunt, i think the UK experts overthought it and made a serious mistake, which they are now rowing back on. The WHO, who i've previously mocked for stating the obvious, are saying get the draconian measures in asap to contain it, following the examples, if not of China, then Japan and South Korea.
We should have locked down 2 weeks ago, at least in London, whereas in Suffolk we're getting the measures at the right time.
Japan now have half as many deaths as the UK and they got this way before us. It is not quite as densely populated as the UK but there's no big death rate in Tokyo or other big cities. South Korea is more densely populated than the UK and we will easily outstrip their death toll soon. [Post edited 16 Mar 2020 23:18]
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| Incredible story on 23:16 - Mar 16 with 2259 views | monytowbray |
| Incredible story on 21:16 - Mar 16 by sparks |
One scientist disagrees with another. Thats basically the story. |
How much are you making being on the Conservative’s payroll right now? |  |
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| Incredible story on 23:18 - Mar 16 with 2246 views | monytowbray |
| Incredible story on 23:11 - Mar 16 by Trequartista |
Positive tests mean little now because we are now not testing people who think they may have it - only the death figures are accurate. To be blunt, i think the UK experts overthought it and made a serious mistake, which they are now rowing back on. The WHO, who i've previously mocked for stating the obvious, are saying get the draconian measures in asap to contain it, following the examples, if not of China, then Japan and South Korea.
We should have locked down 2 weeks ago, at least in London, whereas in Suffolk we're getting the measures at the right time.
Japan now have half as many deaths as the UK and they got this way before us. It is not quite as densely populated as the UK but there's no big death rate in Tokyo or other big cities. South Korea is more densely populated than the UK and we will easily outstrip their death toll soon. [Post edited 16 Mar 2020 23:18]
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You’ve gone up in my estimates this week. | |
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| Incredible story on 23:20 - Mar 16 with 2230 views | Coco |
| Incredible story on 23:11 - Mar 16 by Trequartista |
Positive tests mean little now because we are now not testing people who think they may have it - only the death figures are accurate. To be blunt, i think the UK experts overthought it and made a serious mistake, which they are now rowing back on. The WHO, who i've previously mocked for stating the obvious, are saying get the draconian measures in asap to contain it, following the examples, if not of China, then Japan and South Korea.
We should have locked down 2 weeks ago, at least in London, whereas in Suffolk we're getting the measures at the right time.
Japan now have half as many deaths as the UK and they got this way before us. It is not quite as densely populated as the UK but there's no big death rate in Tokyo or other big cities. South Korea is more densely populated than the UK and we will easily outstrip their death toll soon. [Post edited 16 Mar 2020 23:18]
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why the feck are you not advising the government and WHO themselves??? |  |
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| Incredible story on 23:22 - Mar 16 with 2212 views | monytowbray |
| Incredible story on 23:20 - Mar 16 by Coco |
why the feck are you not advising the government and WHO themselves??? |
All he’s done is read all the evidence, from experts on both sides, including what other nations have proven to work, and concluded from that.
You don’t need a scientific background to see common sense. | |
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| Incredible story on 23:27 - Mar 16 with 2182 views | Trequartista |
| Incredible story on 23:20 - Mar 16 by Coco |
why the feck are you not advising the government and WHO themselves??? |
Not sure if that's a dig or a compliment, but in either event, i'm a mere anxious citizen. | |
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| Incredible story on 23:29 - Mar 16 with 2169 views | ElderGrizzly |
The fact they appear shocked that so many people might die under their plans. Everyone saw it except them? |  | | |
| Incredible story on 23:42 - Mar 16 with 2127 views | Trequartista |
| Incredible story on 23:18 - Mar 16 by monytowbray |
You’ve gone up in my estimates this week. |
I will strive to maintain that when there are topics we disagree on. Look after yourself. | |
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| Incredible story on 23:43 - Mar 16 with 2118 views | monytowbray |
| Incredible story on 23:42 - Mar 16 by Trequartista |
I will strive to maintain that when there are topics we disagree on. Look after yourself. |
Well we can both agree ITFC are sh1t now at least. | |
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| Incredible story on 00:03 - Mar 17 with 2064 views | pointofblue |
| Incredible story on 23:22 - Mar 16 by monytowbray |
All he’s done is read all the evidence, from experts on both sides, including what other nations have proven to work, and concluded from that.
You don’t need a scientific background to see common sense. |
Other nations have proven something in the short term which may not work in the long. Will those countries manage to cope with a second wave? Will we? 18 months before a vaccine can be mass produced... | |
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