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First of all, I want to start off by stating that I’m not one for conspiracy theories etc.
I have been reading a lot of reports on social media, some coming from close-to-home real people I know; stating that causes of deaths are being put down as Covid when they haven’t been tested, or shown any signs of this.
Trying to get my head around, in what possible way would this benefit anybody? - I’ve seen online somebody tragically died from a heart attack, but this was reported as a Covid death.
Anyone more clued up on this subject able to completely deny this, or explain any rationale behind it?
You are moving too fast and in a non sceptical way.
You have read some reports. You then ask people to explain a rationale for the thing reported. That (1) leaps from a random report, to assumption that it might be true with no good reason; and (2) puts the onus on you or others to provide a rationale, if the conclusion is to be rejected- which is back to front and reverses the burden of proof.
The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to the presence of those who think they've found it.
(Sir Terry Pratchett)
You are moving too fast and in a non sceptical way.
You have read some reports. You then ask people to explain a rationale for the thing reported. That (1) leaps from a random report, to assumption that it might be true with no good reason; and (2) puts the onus on you or others to provide a rationale, if the conclusion is to be rejected- which is back to front and reverses the burden of proof.
I’m on a forum asking for further thoughts and opinions to something which I have read on multiple occasions, it’s not much more than that.
If they've died while suffering strongly Covid-type symptoms and 'Flu has been ruled out, it's possible that it may be mentioned on the death certificate. Otherwise, it wouldn't be.
Also bear in mind that more than one cause of death may be recorded, for example heart failure brought on by other illnesses or conditions (e.g. hypertension).
They'll want an inkling of Covid cases confirmed or suspected so that they can feed that into the modelling in somewhat real-time. And dying from Covid-19 and dying with Covid-19 can be subjective anyway. But it'll be the analysis of the excess mortality totals afterwards that show the truer extent.
BTW I don't think individual death are being linked with Covid-19 with no indication of it being present. Are you perhaps thinking of the excess mortality that you can link statistically?
They'll want an inkling of Covid cases confirmed or suspected so that they can feed that into the modelling in somewhat real-time. And dying from Covid-19 and dying with Covid-19 can be subjective anyway. But it'll be the analysis of the excess mortality totals afterwards that show the truer extent.
BTW I don't think individual death are being linked with Covid-19 with no indication of it being present. Are you perhaps thinking of the excess mortality that you can link statistically?
Thanks, that make sense.
So, I have read a few things online; one of which was somebody I know of had a relative die from a heart attack, but this was listed as a Covid death on reports. - Note, I do not know this person well enough to start querying if they had any symptoms etc.
Furthermore to the above, several things on Twitter claiming that people have died in nursing homes where there have been no reported Covid cases and these have been reported also.
Again, I must note none of these stories are set-in-stone as I thankfully haven’t witnessed anything myself, I was just raising it for discussion.
If they've died while suffering strongly Covid-type symptoms and 'Flu has been ruled out, it's possible that it may be mentioned on the death certificate. Otherwise, it wouldn't be.
Also bear in mind that more than one cause of death may be recorded, for example heart failure brought on by other illnesses or conditions (e.g. hypertension).
Thanks Guthrum, sounds so simple, but not something I had thought about regarding multiple causes of deaths.
So, I have read a few things online; one of which was somebody I know of had a relative die from a heart attack, but this was listed as a Covid death on reports. - Note, I do not know this person well enough to start querying if they had any symptoms etc.
Furthermore to the above, several things on Twitter claiming that people have died in nursing homes where there have been no reported Covid cases and these have been reported also.
Again, I must note none of these stories are set-in-stone as I thankfully haven’t witnessed anything myself, I was just raising it for discussion.
[Post edited 11 May 2020 11:14]
As far as I'm aware, it cannot be on the death certificate without it having a positive test.
EDIT: Above is wrong! Guidance is linked further down
So, I have read a few things online; one of which was somebody I know of had a relative die from a heart attack, but this was listed as a Covid death on reports. - Note, I do not know this person well enough to start querying if they had any symptoms etc.
Furthermore to the above, several things on Twitter claiming that people have died in nursing homes where there have been no reported Covid cases and these have been reported also.
Again, I must note none of these stories are set-in-stone as I thankfully haven’t witnessed anything myself, I was just raising it for discussion.
[Post edited 11 May 2020 11:14]
I'm sure there'll be certain deaths that will be misdiagnosed but difficult without details. And we haven't had the capacity to test every single death so symptoms come into play too.
What we do know is that there are many thousands of excess mortality deaths on top of the "Covid deaths" so we can generally lean towards cases being under-reported rather than over-reported. Last week at least, excess mortality in care homes is double the official figure of Covid-19 deaths so another 5,000 on top of what's been reported.
There are a number of misconceptions about the misinformation being put out regarding deaths due to corona virus.
The first is that xyz deaths on a particular day relate to that particular day - they do not, they are merely the number of deaths registered on that day... we are now in mid may and todays death announcement could conceivably include a few from march as well as loads from april. Slowing the rate of death regisgtration allows the curve to be flattened... but creates its own problems which are being seen now.
The other is that a cause of death has to be put down - and that is down to the doctor signing the death certificate... inevitably that will be what the underlying health condition was... eg dementia or heart failure in a home where covid has not been diagnosed or proven. Because our testing has been so applalingly inadequate a covid diagnosis is not possible outside of hospital and the very few care homes where testing has occured.
The only sensible way to measure the morbidity of this virus is to see the 'excess deaths' over the norm, which can only be best guessed at for some time to come. At present this figure is advancing rather quickly towards 60,000.... somewhat different to current government propaganda.
As far as I'm aware, it cannot be on the death certificate without it having a positive test.
EDIT: Above is wrong! Guidance is linked further down
[Post edited 11 May 2020 13:26]
Not so, and I genuinely can't elaborate but I can guarantee you GP's are signing of deaths as Covid just due to circumstance.
This is latest guidelines.
Guidance for doctors completing Medical Certificates of Cause of Death in England and Wales FOR USE DURING THE EMERGENCY PERIOD ONLY
Medical practitioners are required to certify causes of death “to the best of their knowledge and belief”. Without diagnostic proof, if appropriate and to avoid delay, medical practitioners can circle ‘2’ in the MCCD (“information from post-mortem may be available later”) or tick Box B on the reverse of the MCCD for ante-mortem investigations. For example, if before death the patient had symptoms typical of COVID19 infection, but the test result has not been received, it would be satisfactory to give ‘COVID-19’ as the cause of death, tick Box B and then share the test result when it becomes available.
In the circumstances of there being no swab, it is satisfactory to apply clinical judgement.
“Hello, I'm your MP. Actually I'm not. I'm your candidate. Gosh.”
Boris Johnson canvassing in Henley, 2005.
Not so, and I genuinely can't elaborate but I can guarantee you GP's are signing of deaths as Covid just due to circumstance.
This is latest guidelines.
Guidance for doctors completing Medical Certificates of Cause of Death in England and Wales FOR USE DURING THE EMERGENCY PERIOD ONLY
Medical practitioners are required to certify causes of death “to the best of their knowledge and belief”. Without diagnostic proof, if appropriate and to avoid delay, medical practitioners can circle ‘2’ in the MCCD (“information from post-mortem may be available later”) or tick Box B on the reverse of the MCCD for ante-mortem investigations. For example, if before death the patient had symptoms typical of COVID19 infection, but the test result has not been received, it would be satisfactory to give ‘COVID-19’ as the cause of death, tick Box B and then share the test result when it becomes available.
In the circumstances of there being no swab, it is satisfactory to apply clinical judgement.
Indeed, I did say later that I had misread a couple of sentences. One was talking about reported cases (which will have required a test) whereas reported deaths only need to have it mentioned on the death certificate.
There are a number of misconceptions about the misinformation being put out regarding deaths due to corona virus.
The first is that xyz deaths on a particular day relate to that particular day - they do not, they are merely the number of deaths registered on that day... we are now in mid may and todays death announcement could conceivably include a few from march as well as loads from april. Slowing the rate of death regisgtration allows the curve to be flattened... but creates its own problems which are being seen now.
The other is that a cause of death has to be put down - and that is down to the doctor signing the death certificate... inevitably that will be what the underlying health condition was... eg dementia or heart failure in a home where covid has not been diagnosed or proven. Because our testing has been so applalingly inadequate a covid diagnosis is not possible outside of hospital and the very few care homes where testing has occured.
The only sensible way to measure the morbidity of this virus is to see the 'excess deaths' over the norm, which can only be best guessed at for some time to come. At present this figure is advancing rather quickly towards 60,000.... somewhat different to current government propaganda.
"The first is that xyz deaths on a particular day relate to that particular day - they do not, they are merely the number of deaths registered on that day... we are now in mid may and todays death announcement could conceivably include a few from march as well as loads from april. "
Indeed, I did say later that I had misread a couple of sentences. One was talking about reported cases (which will have required a test) whereas reported deaths only need to have it mentioned on the death certificate.
I think that excerpt is in the PDF I posted.
Yes it is same same.
I didn't see your follow on post.
As Bloots allures to, I think you can take all the death reports in the world with a pinch of salt
Deaths per million
UK 469 China 3 Belgium 751 Germany 90 Pakistan 3
Tests per million
UK 27k China No data Belgium 51k Germany 33k Pakistan 1.5k
Interestingly despite Belgium testing 50% more per million than Germany they have a death rate per million x 9 fold
“Hello, I'm your MP. Actually I'm not. I'm your candidate. Gosh.”
Boris Johnson canvassing in Henley, 2005.
The cause of death on a death certificate does not need diagnostic confirmation, that can come later, doctors only need to give the cause of death to the best of their knowledge and belief, typically if you have covid19 symptoms then it will go on the certificate.
The death certificate includes direct and underlying causes of death, and also contributory causes. The direct cause is the thing that finally caused death, the underlying causes are considered more important from a public health perspective being the reasons why someone was on death's door in the first place. Contributory causes being other conditions that might not have directly led to death but contributed to it.
If covid-19 appears anywhere on the certificate, as cause of death, underlying cause of death, or as a contributory reason, then it will be included in the statistics for coronavirus deaths.
Anyone admitted to hospital is tested for Covid19. The deaths reported for hospitals are for those testing positive for C-19.
Badger will correct me if this is incorrect.
All positive covid tests will be featured on the death certificate as a part II if for example, the cause of death was a massive heart attack.
In layman's terms, this means 'may be a contributing factor, maybe not' - in the context of heart attack it's potentially a factor given the effects it can have on blood clotting.
[Post edited 11 May 2020 13:17]
I'm one of the people who was blamed for getting Paul Cook sacked. PM for the full post.
Anyone admitted to hospital is tested for Covid19. The deaths reported for hospitals are for those testing positive for C-19.
Badger will correct me if this is incorrect.
Appears not. Not sure what the implications of this are. Do they go back and test retrospectively or once its on the death certificate it stays there whatever even if its incorrect?
All men and women are created, by the, you know the, you know the thing.
Appears not. Not sure what the implications of this are. Do they go back and test retrospectively or once its on the death certificate it stays there whatever even if its incorrect?
Tests are not fully reliable. Clinical picture and history often is. So it'll go down on a certificate then.
I'm one of the people who was blamed for getting Paul Cook sacked. PM for the full post.