| My man Ambrose has just informed me 14:28 - Apr 27 with 2661 views | giant_stow |
that France and Italy are about re-open too soon and risk another wave in the summer. He makes the point that to some over there, our own re-openning was staged and careful in comparrison.
This was an emailed article so I assume that means its free to share?
Europe is frighteningly close to another Covid blunder
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard,
WORLD ECONOMY EDITOR
If Boris Johnson really did say “let the bodies pile up in their thousands” in a moment of exasperation, this was not in fact Government policy.
Bar the language, it is the current policy of France, Italy, and several other EU states, and a number of impatient German Länder as well. While it is a different story in every country, and none are callous, Europe tolerated the “pile up” of 3,000 bodies a day during the peak of the third wave earlier this month.
The region mostly refused to follow the UK into another full lockdown earlier this year even though it had weeks of prior warning and the British experience of the B117 variant before its eyes. It acted too late. Now one country after another is reopening in a rush, against scientific advice, before cases are under control.
Professor Andrea Crisanti from Padova University, the epidemiologist behind the vaunted Veneto containment last year, foretold what would happen in Italy this spring if the country dropped its guard, and he is now warning that decisions are being made that threaten the summer as well. The underlying picture is scarcely different in France, or Spain. “Reopening is an epic stupidity. The numbers are not low enough to open safely,” he said.
If he is broadly right, Europe’s second tourism season is in the balance and full recovery may be pushed out for several more months, with an ever rising risk of economic scarring and pent-up insolvencies, including sovereign distress.
Prof Crisanti contrasts the careful step-by-step reopening in the UK with the headlong dash in parts of Europe where intensive care units in hospitals are still near breaking point. The daily death toll is running at an Airbus A320 crash every day in several countries.
“Look at Great Britain. It has relaxed restrictive measures in a similar way to Italy, with the difference that England has 30 deaths a day, cases are down to 2,000, and 70pc of the (adult) population is vaccinated. We have vaccinated 15pc, with protection at around 12pc. May we ask, which government has shown greater respect for health?” he told the L’aria che tira TV programme.
This is not to say that Europe’s leaders are necessarily wrong in principle. France’s Emmanuel Macron took an explicit decision last January to reject the demand of the French scientific council for an immediate lockdown, and more broadly to reject zero-Covid ideology tout court. “France is not governed by scientists” was the Jupiterian word from the Élysée Palace.
Events forced him into a partial lockdown anyway. But he was weighing up the conflicting variables: the collateral damage to body and mind; the loss of education; the economic damage; and the insidious effect of allowing the suspension of civil liberties to become routine.
He knew that pandemic fatigue was undermining social consent for lockdowns and that curbs were becoming unenforceable. Like his technocrat twin, Italian premier Mario Draghi, he is now gambling that rising vaccination and immunity will pull down the death trajectory and vindicate his latest decision just in time.
What is striking is how many commentators in France regard this as a legitimate policy choice based on a subtle intertemporal reading of forward-looking curves. But while I agree with them that a zero-death policy in a large Western European country is posturing and intellectual infantilism, I think Mr Macron, Mr Draghi, and others, are jumping the gun by several weeks and making an unforced error that will do further economic and social damage. It is their credibility as clever technocrats that is on the line.
Europe ought to be poised for a V-shaped economy. Fiscal relief is coming and the huge transatlantic gap in stimulus is narrowing. Mr Draghi is cashing in his immense (but perishable) prestige to launch a spending and investment blitz that would never have been tolerated by Brussels or the markets if it had come from any political party in Italy.
He is pushing the budget deficit to almost 12pc of GDP, higher than last year and the highest since the creation of the modern Italian republic. This too is a gamble, or a Hail Mary throw as they say in American football. It assumes that targeted investment will pay for itself with a leveraged multiplier, bringing down the debt ratio over time rather than driving it up, as occurred with the austerity shoved down Italy’s throat during the Trichet-Schauble Lost Decade.
Mario Draghi is betting on a €220bn stimulus package to revive Italy's ailing economy
Germany is opening the spigot. The deficit will jump to 9pc this year. The Netherlands has abandoned its earlier plans for premature tightening. Some €500bn of excess savings is pent-up and ready to go in the eurozone. All the stars are aligned for an imminent boomlet, even if it is weaker than the roaring recoveries in the US and the UK.
But for the reopening gamble to pay off, European states must first control the virus. A chorus of scientists has been warning in Gothic tones that to let rip now is to risk a repeat of the last three cycles of botched Covid management.
“It is much too soon. There are not enough people vaccinated to stop the virus,” said Prof Catherine Hill, doyenne of French epidemiologists. “We’ve passed the case peak of the second wave and we’re at 300 deaths a day, and now they’re lifting the controls. It’s a catastrophe.”
Covid patients in intensive care in France have been hovering near 6,000, and even risen slightly over the last two days. She disputed that there can be any plausible trade-off between health and the economy. “We will lose on both,” she said.
Premier Jean Castex said on Sunday that the Brazilian and South African variants were scarce and in “regression”. He was ill-advised. These P1 strains are surging in greater Paris, rising from 4pc to 9pc of all cases over the last two weeks. The rise has been exponential in the Creuse (21pc) and Haute-Saône (23pc), see chart below.
The figures may be higher by now because France does less genomic sequencing than Wales. While alarmism over new variants can be overdone — there is still T-cell immunity from vaccines and past infections, even if antibodies fall off — it is courting fate to let them spread unchecked. Judging by the spontaneous rave party at the Parc des Buttes-Chaumont in Paris over the weekend, spread they will.
The French scientific council has called for stockpiling of the Moderna vaccine — seemingly the best so far for these strains — warning that cases could get out of hand over the summer. Prof Mahmoud Zureik from the University of Versailles said the French government is making up policy on the hoof and is “in denial” in lifting curbs at a time when critical care demand exceeds capacity in 60 French departments.
So is Mr Draghi, who opened up on Monday across 15 of Italy’s 21 regions taking what he called a calculated risk. “Unfortunately, as I have to keep repeating: the virus doesn’t negotiate,” said Professor Massimo Galli from Milan’s Sacco Hospital. Prof Crisanti is harsher, accusing Italy’s leader of dilettantism.
Premature reopening is particularly hazardous in Italy because large numbers over 80 years old have still not been vaccinated. The former Conte government steered the doses to front-line workers instead, a valid choice had they been able to control who really was on the front-line. Instead doses went to friends of friends in their forties and thirties.
Angela Merkel’s Germany is pulling in the opposite direction to the Club Med bloc, activating the country’s “emergency brake”. It is tightening measures with a clear goal of pulling the seven-day incidence rate below 100 new infections per 100,000 people. Germany is effectively biting the bullet through to the end of June and deferring recovery until the second half.
I suspect that Chancellor Merkel will be rewarded with a better economic outcome as a result. It is Mr Macron, Mr Draghi, and euro-technocrats who may have some explaining to do if their calculated bet goes awry.
As for Boris Johnson’s loose tongue, one thing I have learned over 40 years in journalism is never pay much attention to what people say. Watch what they do.
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| My man Ambrose has just informed me on 14:54 - Apr 27 with 2506 views | Darth_Koont |
You’re on a Telegraph mailing list ...
Well, there’s a surprise. |  |
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| My man Ambrose has just informed me on 14:56 - Apr 27 with 2491 views | StokieBlue |
| My man Ambrose has just informed me on 14:54 - Apr 27 by Darth_Koont |
You’re on a Telegraph mailing list ...
Well, there’s a surprise. |
Without reading the article (I may do later on if time allows), France had the most people in their ICU's with C19 yesterday for 2021. It does seem a bit early to be opening up with that being the case, especially when coupled with the SA variant there and a large about of vaccine hesitancy.
SB |  | | |
| My man Ambrose has just informed me on 14:58 - Apr 27 with 2479 views | giant_stow |
| My man Ambrose has just informed me on 14:54 - Apr 27 by Darth_Koont |
You’re on a Telegraph mailing list ...
Well, there’s a surprise. |
Did you think it a poor quality article then? | |
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| My man Ambrose has just informed me on 14:58 - Apr 27 with 2488 views | clive_baker |
"As for Boris Johnson’s loose tongue, one thing I have learned over 40 years in journalism is never pay much attention to what people say. Watch what they do".
Lol. OK, he's still a c**t then? |  |
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| My man Ambrose has just informed me on 15:04 - Apr 27 with 2449 views | giant_stow |
| My man Ambrose has just informed me on 14:58 - Apr 27 by clive_baker |
"As for Boris Johnson’s loose tongue, one thing I have learned over 40 years in journalism is never pay much attention to what people say. Watch what they do".
Lol. OK, he's still a c**t then? |
Yeah he's definately still a c**t. | |
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| My man Ambrose has just informed me on 15:06 - Apr 27 with 2426 views | clive_baker |
| My man Ambrose has just informed me on 15:04 - Apr 27 by giant_stow |
Yeah he's definately still a c**t. |
Has 70% of the adult population really been vaccinated over here? Surprised to hear its so high. | |
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| My man Ambrose has just informed me on 15:08 - Apr 27 with 2416 views | J2BLUE |
| My man Ambrose has just informed me on 14:58 - Apr 27 by giant_stow |
Did you think it a poor quality article then? |
You tell him Ullaa. After all, you read far worse  |  |
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| My man Ambrose has just informed me on 15:11 - Apr 27 with 2388 views | giant_stow |
| My man Ambrose has just informed me on 15:06 - Apr 27 by clive_baker |
Has 70% of the adult population really been vaccinated over here? Surprised to hear its so high. |
that one sounds a bit high to me too, but I havent' checked recently, so who knows. | |
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| My man Ambrose has just informed me on 15:12 - Apr 27 with 2379 views | giant_stow |
| My man Ambrose has just informed me on 15:08 - Apr 27 by J2BLUE |
You tell him Ullaa. After all, you read far worse |
My subscription to train maps monthly brings me joy. | |
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| My man Ambrose has just informed me on 15:13 - Apr 27 with 2367 views | Darth_Koont |
| My man Ambrose has just informed me on 14:58 - Apr 27 by giant_stow |
Did you think it a poor quality article then? |
It’s alright. But making political points about fundamentally different situations.
I wonder what he was saying about UK lockdowns last October/November. | |
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| My man Ambrose has just informed me on 15:16 - Apr 27 with 2337 views | hype313 |
| My man Ambrose has just informed me on 15:11 - Apr 27 by giant_stow |
that one sounds a bit high to me too, but I havent' checked recently, so who knows. |
Presume they are talking about when we fully open up the 70%? |  |
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| My man Ambrose has just informed me on 15:20 - Apr 27 with 2303 views | WD19 |
| My man Ambrose has just informed me on 15:06 - Apr 27 by clive_baker |
Has 70% of the adult population really been vaccinated over here? Surprised to hear its so high. |
Its about 34m 1st doses done out of a population of 67m. About 15m kids, so we have 1st jabbed 34m out of 52m roughly. c.65% |  | | |
| My man Ambrose has just informed me on 15:26 - Apr 27 with 2252 views | Pinewoodblue |
| My man Ambrose has just informed me on 14:56 - Apr 27 by StokieBlue |
Without reading the article (I may do later on if time allows), France had the most people in their ICU's with C19 yesterday for 2021. It does seem a bit early to be opening up with that being the case, especially when coupled with the SA variant there and a large about of vaccine hesitancy.
SB |
There are over 6,000 in French hospitals in a serious condition, compared with less than 250 in the UK.
When looking at number of cases in the last 7 days per million of population across Europe only Gibraltar, Isle of Man and Faroe Islands have fewer cases than UK.
UK figure is is 237 while France is over 3,100
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table |  |
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| My man Ambrose has just informed me on 15:51 - Apr 27 with 2148 views | BarcaBlue |
I'm not convinced in the validity of articles like this, seems there's more uk political cheerleading than real life analysis. Spain is only mentioned briefly, lumped with other mediterranean countries but ignores policy has been set at regional level with tighter restrictions than were ever imposed in the UK.
In Catalunya for example there has been some loosening of restrictions in the last month eg terrace bars can open from 7.30 to 5.30, non-essential retail now open but the 10pm curfew which started in October and mandatory mask wearing (since April) show no signs of being reversed.
From where I am there's no comparison to be made regarding what's happening in the UK and the loosening of restrictions here. I'm not following what's happening in France or Italy so can't comment there other than I bet it's more nuanced than the article suggests. [Post edited 27 Apr 2021 16:13]
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| My man Ambrose has just informed me on 16:19 - Apr 27 with 2041 views | giant_stow |
| My man Ambrose has just informed me on 15:51 - Apr 27 by BarcaBlue |
I'm not convinced in the validity of articles like this, seems there's more uk political cheerleading than real life analysis. Spain is only mentioned briefly, lumped with other mediterranean countries but ignores policy has been set at regional level with tighter restrictions than were ever imposed in the UK.
In Catalunya for example there has been some loosening of restrictions in the last month eg terrace bars can open from 7.30 to 5.30, non-essential retail now open but the 10pm curfew which started in October and mandatory mask wearing (since April) show no signs of being reversed.
From where I am there's no comparison to be made regarding what's happening in the UK and the loosening of restrictions here. I'm not following what's happening in France or Italy so can't comment there other than I bet it's more nuanced than the article suggests. [Post edited 27 Apr 2021 16:13]
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In some ways I think thats fair (there's definately a strong hint of cheerleading from the telegraph in their coverage, just as the Guardian finds it hard to praise anything the british govt has done).
On the other hand, he's explicit about the situation being different in all countries or German regions and the article isn't really about Spain, so think you're a little harsh there.
How is Spain looking infections wise? On the mend I hope? | |
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| My man Ambrose has just informed me on 16:39 - Apr 27 with 1996 views | BarcaBlue |
| My man Ambrose has just informed me on 16:19 - Apr 27 by giant_stow |
In some ways I think thats fair (there's definately a strong hint of cheerleading from the telegraph in their coverage, just as the Guardian finds it hard to praise anything the british govt has done).
On the other hand, he's explicit about the situation being different in all countries or German regions and the article isn't really about Spain, so think you're a little harsh there.
How is Spain looking infections wise? On the mend I hope? |
Vaccination progress is still painfully slow here, around 23% have had at least one dose. Infections have been pretty stable for the last month but far lower than France or Italy (despite the quote from the article). There's also no sign of an immediate reopening of the country / economy. It was only on Monday this week that we could travel out of our local area and still not outside Catalunya. | | | |
| My man Ambrose has just informed me on 17:07 - Apr 27 with 1935 views | giant_stow |
| My man Ambrose has just informed me on 16:39 - Apr 27 by BarcaBlue |
Vaccination progress is still painfully slow here, around 23% have had at least one dose. Infections have been pretty stable for the last month but far lower than France or Italy (despite the quote from the article). There's also no sign of an immediate reopening of the country / economy. It was only on Monday this week that we could travel out of our local area and still not outside Catalunya. |
Good that infections are stable and low. Love your area of the world. | |
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| My man Ambrose has just informed me on 17:25 - Apr 27 with 1902 views | earlsgreenblue |
| My man Ambrose has just informed me on 15:51 - Apr 27 by BarcaBlue |
I'm not convinced in the validity of articles like this, seems there's more uk political cheerleading than real life analysis. Spain is only mentioned briefly, lumped with other mediterranean countries but ignores policy has been set at regional level with tighter restrictions than were ever imposed in the UK.
In Catalunya for example there has been some loosening of restrictions in the last month eg terrace bars can open from 7.30 to 5.30, non-essential retail now open but the 10pm curfew which started in October and mandatory mask wearing (since April) show no signs of being reversed.
From where I am there's no comparison to be made regarding what's happening in the UK and the loosening of restrictions here. I'm not following what's happening in France or Italy so can't comment there other than I bet it's more nuanced than the article suggests. [Post edited 27 Apr 2021 16:13]
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My “two pennies worth” I’m still in a 19.00hrs midweek & 18.00hrs weekend curfew, face mask have to be worn at all times (loosely observed) numbers of Covid here are constant, our Senior politician has said mass testing shall start immediately, vaccinations are underway (slowly) but increasing daily , targets are surpassed daily.
Bottom line, foreigners here look at the U.K. model in awe.......that’s not political posturing it’s fact, the slow take up of vaccinations in parts of Europe has & will cost thousands of lives, it’s not rocket science, as another “twtd’er who lives here said “ simply, vaccines save lives” an historic fact!
Stay safe U.K. & don’t belittle everything the government (whoever they are) do, in this case they’ve learned & now got it right. |  | | |
| My man Ambrose has just informed me on 20:36 - Apr 27 with 1704 views | factual_blue |
From the title, I thought this was about your valet. [Post edited 27 Apr 2021 20:36]
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