| Why is it always 9th? 06:03 - May 31 with 2170 views | Kropotkin123 |
The dust has settled. McKenna has signed his contract. Relief, hope, and an array of other emotions have unfolded. You start to get back to your normal routine. You look for your nemesis on TWTD to begin a pointless argument that only you and your nemesis care about. But there is something gnawing away at you, at the back of your mind, stopping you from your quest in life. In a moment of cutting clarity you hear it again “9th!”. You look around… "where the #### did that come from?".
A few hours later, there it is again… “9th!”... why is it always 9th? Fear not, I’m here to plug the gap between McKenna’s contract and the next lazily linked player. I’m here to answer this question that is bugging you!
Since the 95-96 season we’ve had 86 promoted sides . As you’d expect, the most popular finishing positions are 20th (14 times), 19th (13), and 18th (12). And then we have 9th (8). 9th? Yep, 9th. Here’s the full list:
It's expected that many promoted teams struggle to compete and get relegated, hence the high frequencies for 18th, 19th, and 20th positions.
9th position being the next most common suggests that a certain number of promoted teams not only avoid relegation but perform significantly well to finish in the top half of the table. Here are some possible reasons and how we stack up.
Quality
Some promoted teams go up with significant quality, for example Vardy or Grealish. Others go up with great collective output.
We have been promoted playing excellent team football. Some of the goals we scored this season were frankly ridiculous. We have strong team cohesion and morale, having gone through two successive promotions together. Our players have a winning mentality and resilience that will be hard to break. They have only lost 10 league games in 2 seasons, and this will count for something.
Investment and Management
The effective use of promotion funds and smart management decisions can significantly impact a promoted team's success.
I can’t think of anyone I’d rather have leading the club than Ashton and McKenna in the transfer market. You know we will strengthen and you know we will do it in a way that brings current players along and is respectful. No huge disruption, measured improvement. With the huge financial boost and their ability in the transfer market, we are in an excellent position. Furthermore, McKenna is arguably the best young manager in the country and he will be able to make adjustments on the pitch that others can’t. He will likely win us points that other managers can’t.
Mid-table Parity
The competition in the mid-table of the Premiership can be relatively even, offering opportunities for well-prepared promoted teams, such as ourselves, to secure higher finishes.
We could well be a team that takes the division by storm and skips over the mid quality teams that don’t have the same drive and momentum as us. While the big teams like Man City and Arsenal might smash us, we can be competitive against the others, as we demonstrated against Wolves.
Style of Play
A promoted team's style of play can greatly influence their ability to compete in the Premiership.
I think our defence is underrated. Away from home in the Championship we showed we can be robust. We had the second best defence in the league away from home. We are excellent on the counter attack and teams that come to dominate us possession-wise won’t have an easy time. McKenna has demonstrated he can be adaptable, and he will likely have more tricks up his sleeve to refine us in an out of possession.
So… while the modal data shows a clear trend of promoted teams struggling, the significant frequency of 9th place finishes highlights that a subset of promoted teams can perform quite well, avoiding the relegation battle and securing respectable mid-table positions. I believe we can emerge from the summer break as one of those teams and so do you, which is why 9th keeps popping up in your head.
Note: If you want access to the Google Sheet, DM me and I'll add you. |  |
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| Why is it always 9th? on 06:47 - May 31 with 1968 views | Churchman |
Thanks for this. Interesting. I particularly agree with your lat Style of Play paragraph. |  | | |
| Why is it always 9th? on 07:11 - May 31 with 1876 views | NthQldITFC |
Thanks, that's some really encouraging info. 9th is inspirational and maybe we can get somewhere close to that. Who knows?
But look at that chart again and there's a 5th! A 5th! Bloody hell that's stratospheric. Who was that club? Cor! I wonder if we can come close to emulating a club like that? |  |
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| Why is it always 9th? on 07:29 - May 31 with 1776 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
Isn't there someone you could have been arguing with instead of doing this! |  |
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| Why is it always 9th? on 07:35 - May 31 with 1754 views | Herbivore |
Interesting analysis, thanks for sharing. Would love it if we could somehow manage a season of comfortable midtable fun but I suspect it's going to be a real fight just to stay in the division. Be interesting to see what our transfer business is like, with the right signings perhaps we can do more than just survive. |  |
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| Why is it always 9th? on 09:21 - May 31 with 1504 views | Swansea_Blue |
Cor, that team who stands alone in achieving 5th must have been good. Who was it?
You’ve not helped my sanity much. It’s good to see data, but I’d have assumed more clubs survived than seems to be the case. I think we’ll be ok though, based on nothing but blind faith that we have a smart cookie with a great team leading us.
I’m glad we’ve got the distraction of the Euros this summer, or I’d be a wreck by August. |  |
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| Why is it always 9th? on 09:24 - May 31 with 1469 views | Herbivore |
| Why is it always 9th? on 09:21 - May 31 by Swansea_Blue |
Cor, that team who stands alone in achieving 5th must have been good. Who was it?
You’ve not helped my sanity much. It’s good to see data, but I’d have assumed more clubs survived than seems to be the case. I think we’ll be ok though, based on nothing but blind faith that we have a smart cookie with a great team leading us.
I’m glad we’ve got the distraction of the Euros this summer, or I’d be a wreck by August. |
Over that period, it's fewer than half of the sides that have finished bottom three so it's not too horrific. That said, I imagine over the last 10 years there's been more promoted sides going back down than in the 20 years previous. | |
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| Why is it always 9th? on 09:28 - May 31 with 1441 views | Ryorry |
Nah, not having it. The first four places are looking a bit lonely - let’s break the mould and go for third :)
Be fun to finish above ManU too, who must be rueing the day they let KM leave.
Great post btw 👍 |  |
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| Why is it always 9th? on 09:33 - May 31 with 1406 views | victorysquad |
| Why is it always 9th? on 07:35 - May 31 by Herbivore |
Interesting analysis, thanks for sharing. Would love it if we could somehow manage a season of comfortable midtable fun but I suspect it's going to be a real fight just to stay in the division. Be interesting to see what our transfer business is like, with the right signings perhaps we can do more than just survive. |
Yes it would be interesting to see last 10 years vs previous 10 years to see how the trend has changed. |  |
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| Why is it always 9th? on 20:35 - May 31 with 1075 views | Kropotkin123 |
| Why is it always 9th? on 09:24 - May 31 by Herbivore |
Over that period, it's fewer than half of the sides that have finished bottom three so it's not too horrific. That said, I imagine over the last 10 years there's been more promoted sides going back down than in the 20 years previous. |
Miss read the original message... Here's the stats from the past 10 years
2013-14 to 2023-24
Relegated = 16
Survived = 17
1995-96 to 2023-24
Relegated = 39
Survived = 47
You have 3 Norwich sides going straight back down between 2013-14 to 2023-24, so is it fair to count them?
Promoted teams positions 2013-14 to 2023-24
7 Wolverhampton Wanderers
9 Leeds United
9 Sheffield United
10 Fulham
10 Newcastle United
11 Crystal Palace
13 Brentford
13 Watford
14 Leicester City
15 Brighton & Hove Albion
15 Bournemouth
16 Bournemouth
16 Burnley
16 Nottingham Forest
16 Hull City
16 Huddersfield Town
17 Aston Villa
18 Cardiff City
18 Hull City
18 Fulham
18 Luton Town
19 Norwich City
19 Burnley
19 Middlesbrough
19 West Bromwich Albion
19 Fulham
19 Burnley
19 Watford
20 Queens Park Rangers
20 Cardiff City
20 Norwich City
20 Norwich City
20 Sheffield United [Post edited 31 May 2024 20:39]
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