| Should the semi finals be played on the same day? 00:15 - Jul 15 with 1081 views | rkc123 |
I have always thought it a bit unfair that in the big international tournaments the team winning the first semi final gets an entire extra day to rest and recover in time for the final (4 days off compared with 3 in this tournament), and thought I would look if this actually correlated in any way with who goes on to win the final.
From a quick check it seems that over the last 20 years, 4 out of 5 world cups have been won by the team who played in the first semi final. If you expand this out to the Euros and Copa America (I didn't include AFCON as they normally play their semi finals on the same day), it is 4 out of 5 for the Euros, and 5 out of 7 for the Copa America. So in total that is 13 out of 17 international tournaments in the past 20 years where the team winning the first semi final goes on to win the final.
That seems like quite a strong correlation, and while I get it obviously isn't as good for broadcasting, it does feel as though the semi finals should both be played on the same day to ensure an even playing field in the final. [Post edited 15 Jul 0:20]
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| Should the semi finals be played on the same day? on 06:57 - Jul 15 with 853 views | You_Bloo_Right |
And yet the (so far) only time we have won this competition we played our semi-final the day after the West Germans.
Then again, perhaps with an extra day's rest we'd have won the game in normal time.  |  |
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| Should the semi finals be played on the same day? on 07:00 - Jul 15 with 841 views | NthQldITFC |
Interesting. Less than 2% chance of that being random. |  |
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| Should the semi finals be played on the same day? on 07:26 - Jul 15 with 788 views | Wacko |
This is scientifically fallacious. To make it valid, you need to include all the rounds, not just the final. Spain beat France after playing their QF later and having one fewer day to recover. | |
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| Should the semi finals be played on the same day? on 08:08 - Jul 15 with 735 views | Kievthegreat |
| Should the semi finals be played on the same day? on 07:26 - Jul 15 by Wacko |
This is scientifically fallacious. To make it valid, you need to include all the rounds, not just the final. Spain beat France after playing their QF later and having one fewer day to recover. |
At the previous 6 world cups, up until the semi finals, no team have had an extra days rest between games. I.e, for each semi final tie, the teams played their quarter final on the same day. In previous world cups this only becomes an issue at the semi-final to final stage. So there is no previous data to look back on.
If you want to include the extra data from earlier rounds this year:
Round of 16- 5 games, 4 won by the team with 1 days less rest.
Quarters - 0 games with different amounts of rest
Semi's - 1 game, won by the team with 1 days less rest.
The issue is that there is a much bigger discrepancy between teams in those earlier rounds. Those rounds are explicitly designed to pitch the better teams against the weaker teams as reward for performance in the group phase. The only standout game is Norway Brazil which Norway won with a days less rest as the lowest ranked team. In every other tie, the highest ranked team won.
If there is one potential issue with the initial assessment its that it didn't look at rankings. In all but 1 world cup finals going back to 2002, the winner of the final has been the higher ranked of those teams going into the tournament. In my data for games when teams had different amounts of rest, all but 1 were won by the highest ranked team. |  | | |
| Should the semi finals be played on the same day? on 08:27 - Jul 15 with 676 views | NedPlimpton |
| Should the semi finals be played on the same day? on 08:08 - Jul 15 by Kievthegreat |
At the previous 6 world cups, up until the semi finals, no team have had an extra days rest between games. I.e, for each semi final tie, the teams played their quarter final on the same day. In previous world cups this only becomes an issue at the semi-final to final stage. So there is no previous data to look back on.
If you want to include the extra data from earlier rounds this year:
Round of 16- 5 games, 4 won by the team with 1 days less rest.
Quarters - 0 games with different amounts of rest
Semi's - 1 game, won by the team with 1 days less rest.
The issue is that there is a much bigger discrepancy between teams in those earlier rounds. Those rounds are explicitly designed to pitch the better teams against the weaker teams as reward for performance in the group phase. The only standout game is Norway Brazil which Norway won with a days less rest as the lowest ranked team. In every other tie, the highest ranked team won.
If there is one potential issue with the initial assessment its that it didn't look at rankings. In all but 1 world cup finals going back to 2002, the winner of the final has been the higher ranked of those teams going into the tournament. In my data for games when teams had different amounts of rest, all but 1 were won by the highest ranked team. |
So what you're saying is that *if* we get through to the final we're screwed on both rankings and Spain having an extra days rest  |  | | |
| Should the semi finals be played on the same day? on 08:42 - Jul 15 with 636 views | itfcjoe |
In 13 of the past 14 finals across men’s and women’s World Cups and European Championships, the side that played their semi-final a day earlier won the final.
In the other game, both semis were on the same day. |  |
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| Ouch (n/t) on 08:47 - Jul 15 with 607 views | unstableblue |
| Should the semi finals be played on the same day? on 08:42 - Jul 15 by itfcjoe |
In 13 of the past 14 finals across men’s and women’s World Cups and European Championships, the side that played their semi-final a day earlier won the final.
In the other game, both semis were on the same day. |
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| Should the semi finals be played on the same day? on 08:48 - Jul 15 with 603 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Should the semi finals be played on the same day? on 08:42 - Jul 15 by itfcjoe |
In 13 of the past 14 finals across men’s and women’s World Cups and European Championships, the side that played their semi-final a day earlier won the final.
In the other game, both semis were on the same day. |
I think it will come down to how tonight’s game plays out. Spain had a relatively trouble free game last night. Dine and dusted in 90 minutes.
If we play extra time and penalties then we will definitely be at a disadvantage.
But I’ve seen Ipswich lose games against teams who have had mid week cup Agnes whist we were refreshed. Sheffield a United springs to mind. So I’m nit sure if it really matters. |  |
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| Should the semi finals be played on the same day? on 09:03 - Jul 15 with 533 views | bsw72 |
Makes little to no difference if the match is 72 hours after the game.
Full recovery after football takes 48 to 72 hours for professional players. Glycogen drops ~40% during a 90-minute match. Muscle force stays reduced for 48+ hours. Generally pros will be fir for their next match after 72 hours.
Main problem will be players who pick up niggles etc |  | | |
| Should the semi finals be played on the same day? on 09:05 - Jul 15 with 513 views | Wacko |
| Should the semi finals be played on the same day? on 08:08 - Jul 15 by Kievthegreat |
At the previous 6 world cups, up until the semi finals, no team have had an extra days rest between games. I.e, for each semi final tie, the teams played their quarter final on the same day. In previous world cups this only becomes an issue at the semi-final to final stage. So there is no previous data to look back on.
If you want to include the extra data from earlier rounds this year:
Round of 16- 5 games, 4 won by the team with 1 days less rest.
Quarters - 0 games with different amounts of rest
Semi's - 1 game, won by the team with 1 days less rest.
The issue is that there is a much bigger discrepancy between teams in those earlier rounds. Those rounds are explicitly designed to pitch the better teams against the weaker teams as reward for performance in the group phase. The only standout game is Norway Brazil which Norway won with a days less rest as the lowest ranked team. In every other tie, the highest ranked team won.
If there is one potential issue with the initial assessment its that it didn't look at rankings. In all but 1 world cup finals going back to 2002, the winner of the final has been the higher ranked of those teams going into the tournament. In my data for games when teams had different amounts of rest, all but 1 were won by the highest ranked team. |
My real point is that there are loads of factors that need to be taken into account, you can't just focus on one. For example, what percentage of players play in both the SF and Final, how many minutes they play etc etc.
Essentially I'm arguing against the pointlessness of most football statistics. The obsession with them is ruining the game in my opinion | |
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| Should the semi finals be played on the same day? on 09:12 - Jul 15 with 489 views | Churchman |
| Should the semi finals be played on the same day? on 08:48 - Jul 15 by GlasgowBlue |
I think it will come down to how tonight’s game plays out. Spain had a relatively trouble free game last night. Dine and dusted in 90 minutes.
If we play extra time and penalties then we will definitely be at a disadvantage.
But I’ve seen Ipswich lose games against teams who have had mid week cup Agnes whist we were refreshed. Sheffield a United springs to mind. So I’m nit sure if it really matters. |
I think you could give England or Argentina two weeks off, including a week in Ayia Napa, massages and ‘dentists chair’ included, and they’d struggle to beat Spain.
But the point is an interesting one. I think both Semi Finals should be played on the same day. |  | | |
| Should the semi finals be played on the same day? on 10:02 - Jul 15 with 383 views | rkc123 |
| Should the semi finals be played on the same day? on 07:26 - Jul 15 by Wacko |
This is scientifically fallacious. To make it valid, you need to include all the rounds, not just the final. Spain beat France after playing their QF later and having one fewer day to recover. |
I pointed out a correlation based on a thought I had following the semi final last night, I didn't claim there was a causal relationship. I just thought it interesting that given the sports science of optimising recovery has got to the point where you see players being given recovery supplements while still on the pitch after full time, then maybe having an entire extra day/night to recover might increase a teams chances of winning. I see another poster pointed out that the difference in terms of the bodies recovery after 72 hours makes little difference, so as you say there likely are a range of factors contributing to the correlation. I would argue though that the correlation alone (an even more clear one when you include the women's finals as Joe did) is enough to suggest they should maybe just play the semi finals on the same day.
Also in response to your later post, it seems a bit odd to argue against the pointlessness of modern statistics by saying I need to add more statistics into my statistics. [Post edited 15 Jul 10:05]
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