| Coronavirus 07:30 - Mar 11 with 9901 views | Swailsey |
I’m aware there’s been loads of threads on this, but I was hoping to strip it back to basics if possible.
As someone with mad OCD and who is prone to hypochondria, I’ve been trying to avoid reading too much and just continuing with my standard hand washing/general OTT (by usual standards) hygiene methods. I feel as though I’m teetering on hyper-analysis on how I’m feeling every second of the day, which is ironically making me feel ill.
Can someone explain why this is being treated with such urgency, compared to say the standard flu? I’m not coming from a conspiracy angle, but to me it seems:
1) Fewer people have been infected than with the usual flu
2) Fewer people have died than with the usual flu
3) It seems to be the vulnerable (as with flu) who are dying
Have we just become complacent with the normal winter flu problem, or is it because:
1) It’s a new virus
2) It’s spreading so fast
3) There is the fear of mutation
Would be interested to hear the thoughts of people closer to it, as it’s hard for me to get an objective view.
I don’t remember this type of mass panic with swine flu or other things before. Is it social media? False rumours circulating? *
*Again, not insinuating at all that anything untoward is happening. [Post edited 11 Mar 2020 7:34]
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| Who said: "Colin Healy made Cesc Fabregas look like Colin Healy"? | We miss you TLA |
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| Coronavirus on 08:37 - Mar 11 with 3062 views | DanTheMan |
| Coronavirus on 08:34 - Mar 11 by ElephantintheRoom |
You wont get a balanced answer on this one because it all depends how you define mortality due to flu.
The 10,000 - 15,000 figure is disputed right across the medical profession as those don't die from flu - rather from underlying and other conditions by and large. They could have died 'with flu' rather than because of it.
Those who talk up the danger of flu are perhaps doing so because of a vested interest... and the market for a corona virus vaccine will be huge - and probably largely ineffectuial, just as the flu vaccines can only protect you against strains that a few worthies think might occur as opposed to the ones that do occur.
But your underlying point is a good one... at least 10,000 people have died every year since the first world war from flu... and seemingly nobody cares overmuch |
Mortality for disease is fairly well defined, even with underlying health conditions.
I honestly don't know what you're talking about, and people really need to stop comparing this with flu. |  |
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| Coronavirus on 08:42 - Mar 11 with 3048 views | HARRY10 |
| Coronavirus on 08:34 - Mar 11 by ElephantintheRoom |
You wont get a balanced answer on this one because it all depends how you define mortality due to flu.
The 10,000 - 15,000 figure is disputed right across the medical profession as those don't die from flu - rather from underlying and other conditions by and large. They could have died 'with flu' rather than because of it.
Those who talk up the danger of flu are perhaps doing so because of a vested interest... and the market for a corona virus vaccine will be huge - and probably largely ineffectuial, just as the flu vaccines can only protect you against strains that a few worthies think might occur as opposed to the ones that do occur.
But your underlying point is a good one... at least 10,000 people have died every year since the first world war from flu... and seemingly nobody cares overmuch |
Becaua moat folk willm panic when they are told to and respond how they think is sociably acceptable.
People are being killed in Yemen yet not a peep. Put on some charity gig and the populace with be sporting tokens of their care and sneering at those who do not join in.
This is basic physcology and will usually provoke a harsh response from those whose sheep like reactions have been exposed as that.
I wonder how many have died in sub Sahara Africa because of malaria. |  | | |
| Coronavirus on 08:44 - Mar 11 with 3044 views | DanTheMan |
| Coronavirus on 08:42 - Mar 11 by HARRY10 |
Becaua moat folk willm panic when they are told to and respond how they think is sociably acceptable.
People are being killed in Yemen yet not a peep. Put on some charity gig and the populace with be sporting tokens of their care and sneering at those who do not join in.
This is basic physcology and will usually provoke a harsh response from those whose sheep like reactions have been exposed as that.
I wonder how many have died in sub Sahara Africa because of malaria. |
"I wonder how many have died in sub Sahara Africa because of malaria".
So people die of other things so... what? We just should ignore this?
I'm sure the health workers will be very happy when they run out of ventilators, knowing that it's OK because people get other diseases. | |
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| Coronavirus on 08:44 - Mar 11 with 3040 views | StokieBlue |
| Coronavirus on 08:42 - Mar 11 by HARRY10 |
Becaua moat folk willm panic when they are told to and respond how they think is sociably acceptable.
People are being killed in Yemen yet not a peep. Put on some charity gig and the populace with be sporting tokens of their care and sneering at those who do not join in.
This is basic physcology and will usually provoke a harsh response from those whose sheep like reactions have been exposed as that.
I wonder how many have died in sub Sahara Africa because of malaria. |
This is just all whatabouterry.
SB |  | | |
| Coronavirus on 08:51 - Mar 11 with 3026 views | jeera |
| Coronavirus on 08:37 - Mar 11 by DanTheMan |
Mortality for disease is fairly well defined, even with underlying health conditions.
I honestly don't know what you're talking about, and people really need to stop comparing this with flu. |
And with traffic accidents.
There's this determination to make false comparisons which is really strange.
I don't know if it's attention seeking, some kind of denial, just being a jerk...
"More people die on the roads so there's no need to worry about knife crime."
It's bollox. |  |
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| Coronavirus on 08:53 - Mar 11 with 3019 views | HARRY10 |
| Coronavirus on 08:44 - Mar 11 by StokieBlue |
This is just all whatabouterry.
SB |
No that is just you lying again.
Now any chance of a quote where I supposedly said hand washing was inneffective, as claimed by you.
The quote or an apology will do | | | |
| Coronavirus on 08:56 - Mar 11 with 3013 views | StokieBlue |
| Coronavirus on 08:53 - Mar 11 by HARRY10 |
No that is just you lying again.
Now any chance of a quote where I supposedly said hand washing was inneffective, as claimed by you.
The quote or an apology will do |
Of course it's whatabouterry. Why on earth would you malaria? Lots is being done about that and happy to discuss but it's got literally nothing to do with covid 19. Absolutely nothing.
The quote has been posted, you've been called out as a liar. You seem to be having some meltdown, at this rate I'll be surprised if you're still here this evening.
I'll accept your apology for calling me a liar now.
SB | | | |
| Coronavirus on 08:57 - Mar 11 with 3009 views | Guthrum |
| Coronavirus on 07:46 - Mar 11 by StokieBlue |
On my phone so can't go into too much depth:
1). Fewer people have been infected as it's a new disease and measures have been put into place. It's r0 (how many people are infected by each infected person) and mortally rate (percentage who die) is higher than flu (much higher in some areas and cohorts).
2). This is simply a function of less people getting it. If the same number got it as flu then far more people would die than with flu.
3). Does that matter? It's bad if anyone dies but you are right, it's worse amongst the older population.
The issue is the potential. If it gets as big as the flu the number of deaths will be large and the knock-on effects to the health services would be enormous. All the action is geared to stopping it being as big as the flu given its a more deadly disease.
Comparing it to the flu isn't helpful though, it's tending to be used to dismiss the virus when it's actually not a great comparison. For instance the mortality rate in Italy is x60 that of flu.
The best thing to do is wash your hands and follow the government advice and try not to worry about it.
SB |
Another aspect is the severity of the symptoms. As far as they understand it at this stage (from what I've been told), a mild case of Covid-19 is about the same as a moderate dose of 'Flu. Will definitely put you in bed and probably in hospital if there are complications.
With the higher infection rate, it could put a sizeable proportion of the population out of action, needing care, at the same time (with the carers extremely vulnerable, too, not only to being put out of action, but becoming transmissors themselves). This could destroy our capability to deal with the situation, overwhelming medical facilities and leading to a much higher proportion of deaths. That is, to some extent, what happened in Northern Italy, in Iran and in the early stages in Wuhan. |  |
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| Coronavirus on 08:59 - Mar 11 with 3002 views | DanTheMan |
| Coronavirus on 08:57 - Mar 11 by Guthrum |
Another aspect is the severity of the symptoms. As far as they understand it at this stage (from what I've been told), a mild case of Covid-19 is about the same as a moderate dose of 'Flu. Will definitely put you in bed and probably in hospital if there are complications.
With the higher infection rate, it could put a sizeable proportion of the population out of action, needing care, at the same time (with the carers extremely vulnerable, too, not only to being put out of action, but becoming transmissors themselves). This could destroy our capability to deal with the situation, overwhelming medical facilities and leading to a much higher proportion of deaths. That is, to some extent, what happened in Northern Italy, in Iran and in the early stages in Wuhan. |
"With the higher infection rate, it could put a sizeable proportion of the population out of action, needing care, at the same time (with the carers extremely vulnerable, too, not only to being put out of action, but becoming transmissors themselves). This could destroy our capability to deal with the situation, overwhelming medical facilities and leading to a much higher proportion of deaths. That is, to some extent, what happened in Northern Italy, in Iran and in the early stages in Wuhan."
This is the biggest problem. The NHS already runs at or over capacity for serious cases.
You then throw this into the mix and they have to start making some pretty horrible decisions over which patient gets the equipment and expertise. | |
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| Coronavirus on 09:06 - Mar 11 with 2993 views | Guthrum |
| Coronavirus on 08:07 - Mar 11 by BloomBlue |
Social media is certainly adding to the problem especially with fake news.
In simple terms it's a new virus which we dont have a cure for yet.
However we have to balance that with the fact we have cure for the common flu and that still kills 1000s every year. Most of those deaths are of people who already existing conditions and it seems the same with Corona.
There is definitely panic, more people are killed on the roads in China than from Corona but you dont see governments shutting down large areas of a country to prevent road deaths.
The difference with Corona is no cure yet and the feasibility it could mutate. But we've faced bigger virus dangers than this Spanish flu the perfect example.
Different Countries are trying different things nothing 100% is working 100% yet. China locked down and their rates of infection are slowing. Italy locked down the north and some experts said they locked down too early and that initial lock down didnt work and now they have had to lock down the whole country. I guess some would argue maybe they didnt lock down early enough.
But how do you completely lock down a country?
But basically based on previous viruses like SARS good personal hygiene like washing hands with help prevent the spread, it appears some locking down of people helps, but like the flu it will spread. Remember that's life our bodies are constantly fighting viruses and building up our defences it's how the human body is built and survives.
Don't panic, remember 70% of what you read on the internet is fake and listen to the NHS experts advising the Gov. As someone said on the TV at the weekend those NHS experts (chief medical advisor) "is the adult in the room" |
The 1918 'Flu Epidemic was a very different scenario.
It was before the era of widespread antibiotics, making treatment of secondary complications (such as pneumonia) much more difficult and thus survival rates much lower.
The developed world was dislocated by an ongoing major war, inhibiting governmental responses to the situation.
The vast majority of deaths were in China and India, regions which were then largely underdeveloped and without particularly functional healthcare systems. | |
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| Coronavirus on 09:09 - Mar 11 with 2984 views | StokieBlue |
| Coronavirus on 09:06 - Mar 11 by Guthrum |
The 1918 'Flu Epidemic was a very different scenario.
It was before the era of widespread antibiotics, making treatment of secondary complications (such as pneumonia) much more difficult and thus survival rates much lower.
The developed world was dislocated by an ongoing major war, inhibiting governmental responses to the situation.
The vast majority of deaths were in China and India, regions which were then largely underdeveloped and without particularly functional healthcare systems. |
Both the r0 and mortality rate of the 1918 flu were lower than covid 19.
Obviously very different scenarios though as you point out.
SB | | | |
| Coronavirus on 09:10 - Mar 11 with 2980 views | Guthrum |
| Coronavirus on 08:05 - Mar 11 by DanTheMan |
"Re. your point about treating the symptoms, is it as simple as if you’re relatively healthy, you could have it without even knowing (ie thinking it’s a bad cold) but if you’re at risk, then your symptoms are worse/potentially fatal?"
Correct. You could show very mild symptoms and pass it on. That's one of the issues with this.
"Surely that makes it incredibly hard to treat as you’d need to test everyone."
Correct. Testing is a big issue.
"For example, I had a horrendous virus at the start of Feb, completely laid me out. That was before the urgency was intensified. If that had happened now, I presumably would have to go for tests, even though I’m sure it can’t have been that?"
Given you're fairly young (I think!) you'd either be tested or just asked to quarantine. I'm not sure how they are choosing who to test here. |
Currently concentrating on testing those who have been to a known hotspot region and those who have been in contact with a confirmed case.
In Australia, the medical authorities had to ask random sufferers of respiratory illnesses not to demand testing, as in almost all cases it is not C-19 and is overwhelming the system. | |
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| Coronavirus on 09:16 - Mar 11 with 2975 views | Guthrum |
On a slightly encouraging note, known cases still represent only 0.0006% of the total UK population. Things are not out of control yet. | |
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| Coronavirus on 09:19 - Mar 11 with 2966 views | monytowbray |
Exactly my thoughts/questions in the OP so good thread.
I cleared my throat this morning as a woman went to sit down next to me on the tube (not on purpose) and she quickly got up again mid-sitting down and went to the other side of the carriage. Made me laugh. It's just a smoker's cough. |  |
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| Coronavirus on 09:22 - Mar 11 with 2955 views | Swansea_Blue |
| Coronavirus on 09:16 - Mar 11 by Guthrum |
On a slightly encouraging note, known cases still represent only 0.0006% of the total UK population. Things are not out of control yet. |
Well that was all nice and reassuring, until you added the word "yet" 
Some interesting posts on here summarising what we know - a decent double act by Dan and Stokie. |  |
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| Coronavirus on 09:30 - Mar 11 with 2931 views | Herbivore |
| Coronavirus on 08:42 - Mar 11 by HARRY10 |
Becaua moat folk willm panic when they are told to and respond how they think is sociably acceptable.
People are being killed in Yemen yet not a peep. Put on some charity gig and the populace with be sporting tokens of their care and sneering at those who do not join in.
This is basic physcology and will usually provoke a harsh response from those whose sheep like reactions have been exposed as that.
I wonder how many have died in sub Sahara Africa because of malaria. |
If you're going to talk about psychology you could at least know how to spell it. |  |
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| Coronavirus on 09:31 - Mar 11 with 2926 views | NthQldITFC |
| Coronavirus on 09:19 - Mar 11 by monytowbray |
Exactly my thoughts/questions in the OP so good thread.
I cleared my throat this morning as a woman went to sit down next to me on the tube (not on purpose) and she quickly got up again mid-sitting down and went to the other side of the carriage. Made me laugh. It's just a smoker's cough. |
Is it worth me getting back on the fags? |  |
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| Coronavirus on 09:31 - Mar 11 with 2931 views | StokieBlue |
| Coronavirus on 09:16 - Mar 11 by Guthrum |
On a slightly encouraging note, known cases still represent only 0.0006% of the total UK population. Things are not out of control yet. |
However, to caveat that, we are only testing ~350 people per million and the figures don't include people self-isolating.
In reality I don't think anyone knows the numbers.
SB | | | |
| Coronavirus on 09:38 - Mar 11 with 2922 views | Guthrum |
| Coronavirus on 09:31 - Mar 11 by StokieBlue |
However, to caveat that, we are only testing ~350 people per million and the figures don't include people self-isolating.
In reality I don't think anyone knows the numbers.
SB |
Even limiting it to tested individuals, confirmed cases are only at about 1.5%. Bearing in mind that for someone to have a test, they need to be in a higher exposure risk category, which weights that statistic. | |
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| Coronavirus on 09:41 - Mar 11 with 2928 views | Marshalls_Mullet |
| Coronavirus on 09:31 - Mar 11 by StokieBlue |
However, to caveat that, we are only testing ~350 people per million and the figures don't include people self-isolating.
In reality I don't think anyone knows the numbers.
SB |
But we do know the number of deaths.
So if the number of cases is under estimated, that means the fatality rate is currently over estimated.
...which is a good thing. |  |
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| Coronavirus on 09:58 - Mar 11 with 2895 views | homer_123 |
| Coronavirus on 09:41 - Mar 11 by Marshalls_Mullet |
But we do know the number of deaths.
So if the number of cases is under estimated, that means the fatality rate is currently over estimated.
...which is a good thing. |
Again, the mortality rate isn't the issue (I'm not saying that people dying isn't bad, it very clearly is), the issue lies with the potential strain on our Health and Social Care services - we are not close the peak yet. |  |
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| Coronavirus on 09:59 - Mar 11 with 2900 views | Marshalls_Mullet |
| Coronavirus on 09:58 - Mar 11 by homer_123 |
Again, the mortality rate isn't the issue (I'm not saying that people dying isn't bad, it very clearly is), the issue lies with the potential strain on our Health and Social Care services - we are not close the peak yet. |
The mortality rate indicates the severity of the virus, the vast majority of people won't need to use the health service.
We are ALL well aware that we are not close to the peak yet. | |
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| Coronavirus on 10:03 - Mar 11 with 2890 views | homer_123 |
| Coronavirus on 09:59 - Mar 11 by Marshalls_Mullet |
The mortality rate indicates the severity of the virus, the vast majority of people won't need to use the health service.
We are ALL well aware that we are not close to the peak yet. |
The vast majority won't need the health service - again, not the point. The point is 'more' people will need than we can cope for - otherwise the Gov would not be attempting to flatten the curve. Our health service cannot cope with Winter pressures as is.
The fact the this Virus spreads quicker and there are more cases than SARS (for example), means more people will die. | |
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| Coronavirus on 10:04 - Mar 11 with 2887 views | homer_123 |
| Coronavirus on 08:18 - Mar 11 by StokieBlue |
That's why it's so hard to stop, by the time you show symptoms you might have been passing it on for up to two weeks.
That's why Greece has closed schools with only 89 cases. Very proactive attempt to stop it.
At the moment though, there is still a lot we don't know.
SB |
We can't stop it in the short term - this is all about mitigation. | |
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| Coronavirus on 10:07 - Mar 11 with 2880 views | Marshalls_Mullet |
| Coronavirus on 10:03 - Mar 11 by homer_123 |
The vast majority won't need the health service - again, not the point. The point is 'more' people will need than we can cope for - otherwise the Gov would not be attempting to flatten the curve. Our health service cannot cope with Winter pressures as is.
The fact the this Virus spreads quicker and there are more cases than SARS (for example), means more people will die. |
None of us really know yet. | |
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