| Look at these figures for those in the 60 and above category 11:42 - Mar 17 with 5256 views | homer_123 |
Figures published yesterday by Imperial College....this is the reality, fecking hell!!!! Now you can see why Health Services have been and are going to be utterly overwhelmed. This is surreal and scary as sh*t.
In short:
Over 60's 16% require hospitilisation, 27% critical care and 2.2% fatality
Over 70's 24% require hospitilisation, 43% critical care and 5.1% fatality
Over 80's 27% require hospitilisation, 70% critical care and 9.3% fatality
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowsh |  |
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| Look at these figures for those in the 60 and above category on 13:36 - Mar 17 with 1074 views | giant_stow |
| Look at these figures for those in the 60 and above category on 13:35 - Mar 17 by BlueBadger |
Some fine-tuning at the end of yesterday had us in a better position at the end of the day than at the beginning, but it's difficult to say. I tend to get critical care involved with 'sickies' sooner rather than later(and ideally in the hours of daylight) as generally, it's better to nip incipient critical illness in the bud and have a clear plan of 'escalation' than it is to 'firefight' later(invariably at night).
It's better for all parties concerned. [Post edited 17 Mar 2020 13:43]
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Blimey, thanks for being straight and all the best to the woman. |  |
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| Look at these figures for those in the 60 and above category on 13:39 - Mar 17 with 1071 views | HighgateBlue |
| Look at these figures for those in the 60 and above category on 11:52 - Mar 17 by NthQldITFC |
I know it's obvious, but probably worth pointing out that the critical care column is percentage of those hospitalised requiring critical care (rather than percentage of population in that age range requiring critical care).
Adjusted for that:
Over 60's 16% require hospitalisation, 5% critical care and 2.2% fatality
Over 70's 24% require hospitalisation, 11% critical care and 5.1% fatality
Over 80's 27% require hospitalisation, 19% critical care and 9.3% fatality
EDIT: for clarification (thanks to HighgateBlue)
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The figures on each line represent SYMPTOMATIC CASES, not the entire age group.
In the adjusted figures above, the figures for critical care represent the percentage of each age group predicted to require critical care IF THEY DEVELOP THE SYMPTOMS.
The original figures from the ICL report show what percentage of those who have ALREADY BEEN HOSPITALISED go on to require critical care.
Just a different (and possibly slightly less scary) way of looking at it. [Post edited 17 Mar 2020 14:15]
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Just to be clear, the table in the report (page 5 of 20) makes it clear that the first column is "% symptomatic cases requiring hospitalisation", so it's not saying that 16% of those between the ages of 60 and 69 will require hospitalisation. It's saying that 16% of those between 60 and 69 who have a symptomatic case of the virus will require hospitalisation.
Similarly the third column in the report (page 5 of 20) is "Infection Fatality Ratio" (also referred to as Infection Fatality Rate). That does not mean that 2.2% of all those between 60 and 69 will die. The 2.2% figure is out of a cohort of people who have the virus (or probably, more accurately, out of a cohort of people with symptomatic cases).
Yes, the numbers are really quite scary, but please let's understand what we're (a) reading, and (b) propagating. |  | | |
| Look at these figures for those in the 60 and above category on 13:53 - Mar 17 with 1047 views | bournemouthblue |
| Look at these figures for those in the 60 and above category on 13:35 - Mar 17 by Ryorry |
"I thought the guidance was the weekend onwards for this extended isolation period?".
It was. Also for London residents to take more care early doors, as that's where CoroV is taking off fastest (inevitably).
Think it partly depends where you live - out here in the sticks, where the nearest *confirmed* case is 10 miles away (albeit who knows who else is walking around transmitting of course), I'll feel relatively safe driving to the village co-op & picking up medication towards the end of this week, taking due precautions obviously. |
Agreed, our inferior infrastructure in the East actually has a benefit here
Frankly as long as we are washing our hands properly, washing things down properly and not touching everybody we meet, the spread will be slowed
If you're fortunate to be in the safer group, you have little to worry about. We all probably get it at some point.
The government should be giving guidance to the people to be sensible.
Like anything, it will be a small minority who spoil it for the sensible majority. These are the one's we need to be reigning in. [Post edited 17 Mar 2020 13:54]
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| Look at these figures for those in the 60 and above category on 13:56 - Mar 17 with 1039 views | NthQldITFC |
| Look at these figures for those in the 60 and above category on 13:39 - Mar 17 by HighgateBlue |
Just to be clear, the table in the report (page 5 of 20) makes it clear that the first column is "% symptomatic cases requiring hospitalisation", so it's not saying that 16% of those between the ages of 60 and 69 will require hospitalisation. It's saying that 16% of those between 60 and 69 who have a symptomatic case of the virus will require hospitalisation.
Similarly the third column in the report (page 5 of 20) is "Infection Fatality Ratio" (also referred to as Infection Fatality Rate). That does not mean that 2.2% of all those between 60 and 69 will die. The 2.2% figure is out of a cohort of people who have the virus (or probably, more accurately, out of a cohort of people with symptomatic cases).
Yes, the numbers are really quite scary, but please let's understand what we're (a) reading, and (b) propagating. |
Thank you for your clarification. So that effectively means that if we assumed (for the sake of an example) that 50% of the population became symptomatic, then those figures would effectively be halved? |  |
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| Look at these figures for those in the 60 and above category on 14:28 - Mar 17 with 1012 views | Guthrum |
| Look at these figures for those in the 60 and above category on 13:12 - Mar 17 by footers |
Given the number of over-60s I've just seen out and about, it looks like many aren't taking this too seriously, which is a shame. |
Remember, a lot of over 70s have just been told they are expected to quarantine for three whole months. Not surprising they want to pop down the supermarket for a few supplies before shutting themselves away. They may be unprepared and might have missed out on (or due to) the panic buying over recent days. [Post edited 17 Mar 2020 14:28]
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| Look at these figures for those in the 60 and above category on 14:34 - Mar 17 with 1004 views | Ryorry |
| Look at these figures for those in the 60 and above category on 14:28 - Mar 17 by Guthrum |
Remember, a lot of over 70s have just been told they are expected to quarantine for three whole months. Not surprising they want to pop down the supermarket for a few supplies before shutting themselves away. They may be unprepared and might have missed out on (or due to) the panic buying over recent days. [Post edited 17 Mar 2020 14:28]
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Quite! And the supermarket sites I've been on are now booked up 3 weeks ahead for deliveries. 70+s in shops now looking to perfectly legitimately stock up, are faced with empty loo-roll etc shelves because of the panic-buying earlier of those not in high-risk groups.
(Edit - sorry, hadn't seen your edit when I posted!). [Post edited 17 Mar 2020 14:35]
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| Look at these figures for those in the 60 and above category on 14:47 - Mar 17 with 989 views | Guthrum |
| Look at these figures for those in the 60 and above category on 14:34 - Mar 17 by Ryorry |
Quite! And the supermarket sites I've been on are now booked up 3 weeks ahead for deliveries. 70+s in shops now looking to perfectly legitimately stock up, are faced with empty loo-roll etc shelves because of the panic-buying earlier of those not in high-risk groups.
(Edit - sorry, hadn't seen your edit when I posted!). [Post edited 17 Mar 2020 14:35]
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Not only loo roll. Was in Sainsbury's before lunch, there was virtually no fresh meat, fish, sausages, milk, bread, tins, biscuits or cereal. The loo roll aisle was empty apart from a solitary pot plant sitting on a shelf. | |
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| Look at these figures for those in the 60 and above category on 14:52 - Mar 17 with 967 views | SpruceMoose |
| Look at these figures for those in the 60 and above category on 14:47 - Mar 17 by Guthrum |
Not only loo roll. Was in Sainsbury's before lunch, there was virtually no fresh meat, fish, sausages, milk, bread, tins, biscuits or cereal. The loo roll aisle was empty apart from a solitary pot plant sitting on a shelf. |
Hopefully something with broad leaves as opposed to a cactus... |  |
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| Look at these figures for those in the 60 and above category on 15:17 - Mar 17 with 952 views | jeera |
| Look at these figures for those in the 60 and above category on 13:20 - Mar 17 by BloomBlue |
Probably the remaining games on my Town season ticket |
Even I don't deserve that. |  |
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| Look at these figures for those in the 60 and above category on 17:40 - Mar 17 with 931 views | Ryorry |
| Look at these figures for those in the 60 and above category on 14:52 - Mar 17 by SpruceMoose |
Hopefully something with broad leaves as opposed to a cactus... |
I've been longingly scanning all the trees in the woods, hoping for some sign of leaves emerging, whilst walking my dog.
*I'm now somewhat fearful of the euphemisms this post might generate! Time to head off to walk him whilst there's still daylight now I think of it ... | |
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| Look at these figures for those in the 60 and above category on 17:45 - Mar 17 with 919 views | badadski |
| Look at these figures for those in the 60 and above category on 13:35 - Mar 17 by Ryorry |
"I thought the guidance was the weekend onwards for this extended isolation period?".
It was. Also for London residents to take more care early doors, as that's where CoroV is taking off fastest (inevitably).
Think it partly depends where you live - out here in the sticks, where the nearest *confirmed* case is 10 miles away (albeit who knows who else is walking around transmitting of course), I'll feel relatively safe driving to the village co-op & picking up medication towards the end of this week, taking due precautions obviously. |
Flu has a big mortality rate but they said this Coronavirus is massively more infectious as we can now tell from what’s going on.
I was dismissive at start like most but have an elderly grandfather that has lived through 2nd world war and would rather not pass away due to some poxy virus. |  | | |
| Look at these figures for those in the 60 and above category on 17:47 - Mar 17 with 916 views | Ryorry |
| Look at these figures for those in the 60 and above category on 17:45 - Mar 17 by badadski |
Flu has a big mortality rate but they said this Coronavirus is massively more infectious as we can now tell from what’s going on.
I was dismissive at start like most but have an elderly grandfather that has lived through 2nd world war and would rather not pass away due to some poxy virus. |
Did you reply to wrong post maybe? 🤔 | |
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| Look at these figures for those in the 60 and above category on 18:03 - Mar 17 with 906 views | strikalite |
| Look at these figures for those in the 60 and above category on 13:06 - Mar 17 by Ryorry |
I've said on another thread that a vaccine, even if one can be developed - and developed within 12-18 months - can only offer *some* degree of protection - look how 'flu & cold viruses mutate every year, and how having a flu jab hasn't been enough to stop many people dying from 'flu annually.
The best thing people can do to protect themselves, apart from isolation early doors, is to *boost their immune systems* - eat more fruit & veg, still plentiful in the shops, eggs, vits & mins - esp D, take a supplement, the majority of UK citizens are well below threshold when tested - sleep more, relax more, laugh & listen to music more, use other relaxation/meditation techniques if you don't already. |
Agree, a vit d3 supp will really help, most people are deficient, 3000iu should do it..
Omega3's too, nearly all of us have an out of whack 3's to 6 balance..
It's nearly impossible to get enough d3 through food alone, it's a fairly cheap supp too. |  | | |
| Look at these figures for those in the 60 and above category on 21:04 - Mar 17 with 861 views | syntaxerror |
| Look at these figures for those in the 60 and above category on 14:28 - Mar 17 by Guthrum |
Remember, a lot of over 70s have just been told they are expected to quarantine for three whole months. Not surprising they want to pop down the supermarket for a few supplies before shutting themselves away. They may be unprepared and might have missed out on (or due to) the panic buying over recent days. [Post edited 17 Mar 2020 14:28]
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Bay area California has just introduced shopping hours for over 70s. They get the first 2 hours in grocery and pharmacy stores.
We should do the same.
My wife manages a large chain health and beauty store in Sussex, and has over 70s in tears when they arrive too late for the daily deliveries of essentials like hand sanitisers, and that is despite a ration of 2 per person.
There were queues outside the shop this morning before opening hours.
People buying their items, and then rejoining the queue with sunglasses on, trying to disguise themselves was her high/low point today. [Post edited 17 Mar 2020 21:13]
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