| 20k Deaths in UK a good outcome from coronavirus. 23:58 - Mar 19 with 4358 views | Girthyguy |
I'm sure it's been talked about but seeing Boris come out and say we can 'turn the tide' in 12 weeks is utter cr@p. China have have had this virus for well over 3 months and have 3000 plus deaths. Italy today surpassed China's death toll today. But we are expecting 20000 deaths as a great result. We have just over 140 so far. How on earth we will be turning the tide in 12 weeks is beyond me. Our slow and awful approach to this makes me and I'm sure a lot of others believe we are going to lose so many more lives because of our half assed approach. |  | | |  |
| 20k Deaths in UK a good outcome from coronavirus. on 00:11 - Mar 20 with 3612 views | monytowbray |
Nothing he has said all week has been consistent bar the catchy slogans and the bumbling between the few words he manages. |  |
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| 20k Deaths in UK a good outcome from coronavirus. on 00:30 - Mar 20 with 3591 views | Churchman |
I can’t see the ‘tide’ turning in 12 weeks. If he promises to resign if it doesn’t I might believe him. But then tub o lard keeps telling us there is no food shortages. Where I live the shelves are stripped bare. End of. Of course there is a food shortage. I suspect they’re scared to admit it.
We are told they want to keep companies going and people in employment, but clearly from this message board alone, people are already losing their jobs. This will worsen as supply chains collapse. Words, promises as nothing tangible.
A week a go I thought BJ had a good grip on things. I was wrong. He, wingnut and the rest have no idea and tbh, I’m not sure the so called experts have either, given how often they keep telling us hthat this is a new virus bla blah blah. They are chasing the problem and resorting to palliative comments like 12 weeks. |  | | |
| 20k Deaths in UK a good outcome from coronavirus. on 01:06 - Mar 20 with 3559 views | Oldsmoker |
There does seem to be a disconnect in government from actual reality.
The food chain and how food gets to the supermarket shelves is one of them. Food does not magically appear and package itself. It needs people to do that, lots of them.
Think about what goes into making flour for bread.
Someone has to grind the wheat and package it.
That means you have a machine that needs to be cleaned and maintained.
Someone has to produce the bags it goes into so thats another factory with machines that need to be maintained. The unfilled bags and the filled bags have to be transported from one place to another. You need drivers who need diesel for their trucks and those trucks have to be maintained. If they aren't maintained then they'll break down and that means a garage and its breakdown truck is required.
I'm sure we can all see the endless chain of links that have to be in place for it all to work. A system is as strong as its weakest link. I don't think the current cabinet gets this at all.
If they want to lock down London then it's factories outside London that will have to supply it with food. The rest of the country can't lock down or Londoners will starve. |  |
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| 20k Deaths in UK a good outcome from coronavirus. on 01:23 - Mar 20 with 3521 views | Doctor_Earman |
Didn't know you were a scientist mate? | | | |
| 20k Deaths in UK a good outcome from coronavirus. on 01:34 - Mar 20 with 3518 views | Darth_Koont |
That needs some context.
Say it takes a year for a vaccine to be developed. In a normal year, 500,0000 people die in the UK and 90% of those from old age and the underlying health conditions that come with it.
20k is a lot but it’s only a 4% increase among people who are generally on their last legs within the next few years. These are the people who die from the flu even today and even with the flu vaccine.
That’s not to minimize the general threat of Covid-19 or to say 20,000 people’s lives shortened (some greatly) can be dismissed as a small percentage. But important to see the bigger picture too. |  |
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| 20k Deaths in UK a good outcome from coronavirus. on 01:52 - Mar 20 with 3474 views | monytowbray |
| 20k Deaths in UK a good outcome from coronavirus. on 01:23 - Mar 20 by Doctor_Earman |
Didn't know you were a scientist mate? |
I think you’ve confused Science with basic Maths. | |
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| 20k Deaths in UK a good outcome from coronavirus. on 02:01 - Mar 20 with 3458 views | Girthyguy |
| 20k Deaths in UK a good outcome from coronavirus. on 01:23 - Mar 20 by Doctor_Earman |
Didn't know you were a scientist mate? |
No I am not but I'm sure you will enlighten me with your expert analysis rather than just a one sentence cocky c**t answer. | | | |
| 20k Deaths in UK a good outcome from coronavirus. on 04:01 - Mar 20 with 3408 views | Churchman |
| 20k Deaths in UK a good outcome from coronavirus. on 01:34 - Mar 20 by Darth_Koont |
That needs some context.
Say it takes a year for a vaccine to be developed. In a normal year, 500,0000 people die in the UK and 90% of those from old age and the underlying health conditions that come with it.
20k is a lot but it’s only a 4% increase among people who are generally on their last legs within the next few years. These are the people who die from the flu even today and even with the flu vaccine.
That’s not to minimize the general threat of Covid-19 or to say 20,000 people’s lives shortened (some greatly) can be dismissed as a small percentage. But important to see the bigger picture too. |
According to an article for ITV news early Feb, Public Health England said: "The number of flu cases and deaths due to flu-related complications varies each flu season."The average number of deaths in England for the last five seasons, 2014/15 to 2018/19, was 17,000 deaths annually."This ranged from 1,692 deaths last season, 2018/19, to 28,330 deaths in 2014/15’
That surprised me and while 20k for Coronavirus is a large number and awful given this is peoples lives and not to be dismissed lightly, you are right in that understanding context re fatalities is important. | | | |
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| 20k Deaths in UK a good outcome from coronavirus. on 06:41 - Mar 20 with 3296 views | Ely_Blue |
| 20k Deaths in UK a good outcome from coronavirus. on 01:06 - Mar 20 by Oldsmoker |
There does seem to be a disconnect in government from actual reality.
The food chain and how food gets to the supermarket shelves is one of them. Food does not magically appear and package itself. It needs people to do that, lots of them.
Think about what goes into making flour for bread.
Someone has to grind the wheat and package it.
That means you have a machine that needs to be cleaned and maintained.
Someone has to produce the bags it goes into so thats another factory with machines that need to be maintained. The unfilled bags and the filled bags have to be transported from one place to another. You need drivers who need diesel for their trucks and those trucks have to be maintained. If they aren't maintained then they'll break down and that means a garage and its breakdown truck is required.
I'm sure we can all see the endless chain of links that have to be in place for it all to work. A system is as strong as its weakest link. I don't think the current cabinet gets this at all.
If they want to lock down London then it's factories outside London that will have to supply it with food. The rest of the country can't lock down or Londoners will starve. |
As somebody who works in the food manufacturing business you have some things factually correct about what it takes to produce the food we eat and the links in the chain, however there is a different reason that our supermarkets are struggling and it’s not down to them not getting supplies.
If you think even about yourself and your normal weekly/monthly routine when you go to the office every day or you meet you friends etc, how many times per week/month would you normally have an “out of home dining experience”? That doesn’t have to be a Michelin star restaurant, it could be a coffee and cake at Starbucks, a burger from McDonald’s, a sandwich from your local deli etc etc. All those meal occasions are being taken out of the hospitality sector and retail is expected to suddenly pick this all up.
One QSR has noticed this and is trying to do something about these 3 things, helping their staff and supply chain not lose their jobs, help feed the country, making sure that what we have is going to use.
I wonder how long before more chains can do this or can divert their supplies or attentions towards the retail sector |  |
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| 20k Deaths in UK a good outcome from coronavirus. on 08:29 - Mar 20 with 3242 views | Guthrum |
If the figures are reliable, China 'turned the tide' back in mid-February when overall numbers of those with the disease began to drop, as recoveries (plus deaths, but they were only a small proportion) started exceeding new cases. |  |
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| 20k Deaths in UK a good outcome from coronavirus. on 08:35 - Mar 20 with 3223 views | ElephantintheRoom |
I am not sure you can blame government - apart from the decades-long strategy of cutting healthcare and care in the community which leaves us so utterly vulnerable to something way beyond the norm. Nobody seems to have responded to what they saw with their own eyes happening in China.
Ridiculously we dont even have protective equipment for the inadequate number of medics, carers, cleaners etc in the now virtually empty hospitals awaiting armageddon.
This is a Chernobyl moment that hopefully people react to. People voting Tory last time need their heads examined. Watching people die needlessly because of tax cuts and pointless cuts might wake some people up and make a diiference at the next general election - which will hopefully be something like the mood swing after WW2. | |
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| 20k Deaths in UK a good outcome from coronavirus. on 08:59 - Mar 20 with 3198 views | noggin |
| 20k Deaths in UK a good outcome from coronavirus. on 00:30 - Mar 20 by Churchman |
I can’t see the ‘tide’ turning in 12 weeks. If he promises to resign if it doesn’t I might believe him. But then tub o lard keeps telling us there is no food shortages. Where I live the shelves are stripped bare. End of. Of course there is a food shortage. I suspect they’re scared to admit it.
We are told they want to keep companies going and people in employment, but clearly from this message board alone, people are already losing their jobs. This will worsen as supply chains collapse. Words, promises as nothing tangible.
A week a go I thought BJ had a good grip on things. I was wrong. He, wingnut and the rest have no idea and tbh, I’m not sure the so called experts have either, given how often they keep telling us hthat this is a new virus bla blah blah. They are chasing the problem and resorting to palliative comments like 12 weeks. |
There is enough food but people are buying more than they need. Government and/or supermarkets need to start rationing. |  |
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| 20k Deaths in UK a good outcome from coronavirus. on 09:40 - Mar 20 with 3153 views | Darth_Koont |
| 20k Deaths in UK a good outcome from coronavirus. on 04:01 - Mar 20 by Churchman |
According to an article for ITV news early Feb, Public Health England said: "The number of flu cases and deaths due to flu-related complications varies each flu season."The average number of deaths in England for the last five seasons, 2014/15 to 2018/19, was 17,000 deaths annually."This ranged from 1,692 deaths last season, 2018/19, to 28,330 deaths in 2014/15’
That surprised me and while 20k for Coronavirus is a large number and awful given this is peoples lives and not to be dismissed lightly, you are right in that understanding context re fatalities is important. |
Yes, I was surprised by that flu deaths figure of 28k in 2014/15. Not sure that ever made much news at the time.
We're right to take Covid-19 seriously as there are still many unknowns about how it's spread and how much it could affect the population. But it also shows that we've a tendency to downplay or ignore everyday stuff and exaggerate the new stuff even if the underlying data shows a similar level of risk. | |
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| 20k Deaths in UK a good outcome from coronavirus. on 09:46 - Mar 20 with 3143 views | StokieBlue |
| 20k Deaths in UK a good outcome from coronavirus. on 00:11 - Mar 20 by monytowbray |
Nothing he has said all week has been consistent bar the catchy slogans and the bumbling between the few words he manages. |
I think you are being rather unfair. The response hasn't been perfect and communication could certainly have been better but that has been the same for virtually every country in the Western world.
It's a fluid situation which changes daily, it's hard to be consistent given that.
Certainly him and the government could have done better in some areas but they are also following the advice they are given.
It almost feels that it's gotten to the point that regardless of what the government does you'll criticise it.
SB |  |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| 20k Deaths in UK a good outcome from coronavirus. on 09:50 - Mar 20 with 3131 views | StokieBlue |
| 20k Deaths in UK a good outcome from coronavirus. on 04:01 - Mar 20 by Churchman |
According to an article for ITV news early Feb, Public Health England said: "The number of flu cases and deaths due to flu-related complications varies each flu season."The average number of deaths in England for the last five seasons, 2014/15 to 2018/19, was 17,000 deaths annually."This ranged from 1,692 deaths last season, 2018/19, to 28,330 deaths in 2014/15’
That surprised me and while 20k for Coronavirus is a large number and awful given this is peoples lives and not to be dismissed lightly, you are right in that understanding context re fatalities is important. |
Can we stop comparing C-19 to the flu please?
Given the same number of infections the deaths will be vastly more under C-19. That is what every government in the world is trying to prevent.
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| 20k Deaths in UK a good outcome from coronavirus. on 09:51 - Mar 20 with 3126 views | monytowbray |
| 20k Deaths in UK a good outcome from coronavirus. on 09:46 - Mar 20 by StokieBlue |
I think you are being rather unfair. The response hasn't been perfect and communication could certainly have been better but that has been the same for virtually every country in the Western world.
It's a fluid situation which changes daily, it's hard to be consistent given that.
Certainly him and the government could have done better in some areas but they are also following the advice they are given.
It almost feels that it's gotten to the point that regardless of what the government does you'll criticise it.
SB |
The rest of the world are looking at us like we’re mad. Because we are. | |
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| 20k Deaths in UK a good outcome from coronavirus. on 09:59 - Mar 20 with 3104 views | Darth_Koont |
| 20k Deaths in UK a good outcome from coronavirus. on 09:50 - Mar 20 by StokieBlue |
Can we stop comparing C-19 to the flu please?
Given the same number of infections the deaths will be vastly more under C-19. That is what every government in the world is trying to prevent.
SB |
To be fair, this is giving 20,000 deaths context. Not sure anyone's comparing this to the flu here.
Clearly, minimizing the deaths of Covid-19 to "flu-like" levels will need us to handle it vastly differently and take transmission/infection risk much more seriously. | |
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| 20k Deaths in UK a good outcome from coronavirus. on 10:03 - Mar 20 with 3091 views | StokieBlue |
| 20k Deaths in UK a good outcome from coronavirus. on 09:51 - Mar 20 by monytowbray |
The rest of the world are looking at us like we’re mad. Because we are. |
Do you think the French are mad? They have done 11,000 tests in total - we did 6,800 yesterday alone and are ramping up to 10,000 then 25,000.
You made a big point about testing which wasn't really reflected in the reality of the numbers - an example of you criticising the government regardless of what they do.
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| 20k Deaths in UK a good outcome from coronavirus. on 10:08 - Mar 20 with 3075 views | monytowbray |
| 20k Deaths in UK a good outcome from coronavirus. on 10:03 - Mar 20 by StokieBlue |
Do you think the French are mad? They have done 11,000 tests in total - we did 6,800 yesterday alone and are ramping up to 10,000 then 25,000.
You made a big point about testing which wasn't really reflected in the reality of the numbers - an example of you criticising the government regardless of what they do.
SB |
I’m amazed at this point, based on the fact we have no information or half decent explanation of this model we’re following, how you are still falling for the idea they’re not making it up as they go along.
It’s like watching someone stuck in an abusive relationship. | |
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| 20k Deaths in UK a good outcome from coronavirus. on 10:20 - Mar 20 with 3022 views | StokieBlue |
| 20k Deaths in UK a good outcome from coronavirus. on 10:08 - Mar 20 by monytowbray |
I’m amazed at this point, based on the fact we have no information or half decent explanation of this model we’re following, how you are still falling for the idea they’re not making it up as they go along.
It’s like watching someone stuck in an abusive relationship. |
It would be nice if you occasionally answered questions put to you.
Are the French mad? Do you concede your posts about testing were unfair and driven by the fact you just want to criticise the government?
The general public aren't qualified to interpret the esoterics of the modelling and cast a judgement. It would just be used as another stick to beat them with. They are clearly changing plans as the situation develops, that is not the same as making it up as they go along. I hope they do publish the model soon along with a simple explanation. They do have a lot on their plates at the moment.
I've said multiple times what things they could have done better and what they need to improve - I agree there are plenty of things they can improve on. However your attitude of constantly criticising everything then not rolling back when presented with evidence to the contrary really isn't helping things.
Not sure I like your last line to be honest.
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| 20k Deaths in UK a good outcome from coronavirus. on 10:29 - Mar 20 with 3002 views | Ely_Blue |
| 20k Deaths in UK a good outcome from coronavirus. on 08:59 - Mar 20 by noggin |
There is enough food but people are buying more than they need. Government and/or supermarkets need to start rationing. |
Or maybe we need to realise what I posted in the thread about 2 posts up from this one | |
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| 20k Deaths in UK a good outcome from coronavirus. on 11:08 - Mar 20 with 2974 views | MarinerisGod |
For perspective 94,000 at least will die of cancer in the country alone.
There are approx 100,000 with HIV in the UK and about 4000 new cases a year. The daeth rate yearly is about 10%. Still all of these stats are higher than COVID19.
It is not top trumps for diseases, but the media frenzy to panic people is disproportionate at this point. |  |
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| 20k Deaths in UK a good outcome from coronavirus. on 11:12 - Mar 20 with 2963 views | Ely_Blue |
| 20k Deaths in UK a good outcome from coronavirus. on 11:08 - Mar 20 by MarinerisGod |
For perspective 94,000 at least will die of cancer in the country alone.
There are approx 100,000 with HIV in the UK and about 4000 new cases a year. The daeth rate yearly is about 10%. Still all of these stats are higher than COVID19.
It is not top trumps for diseases, but the media frenzy to panic people is disproportionate at this point. |
The difference being that you cannot catch Cancer or HIV by just sitting next to the bloke in the pub or by opening the newsagents shop door!
Just a little thing to show you some more disproportionate information! | |
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| 20k Deaths in UK a good outcome from coronavirus. on 11:13 - Mar 20 with 2962 views | eireblue |
| 20k Deaths in UK a good outcome from coronavirus. on 11:08 - Mar 20 by MarinerisGod |
For perspective 94,000 at least will die of cancer in the country alone.
There are approx 100,000 with HIV in the UK and about 4000 new cases a year. The daeth rate yearly is about 10%. Still all of these stats are higher than COVID19.
It is not top trumps for diseases, but the media frenzy to panic people is disproportionate at this point. |
I think you may find the concern is not the current numbers.
But the speed and how easy it is for the virus to spread.
Without intervention, what would be the death rate, and absolute numbers of death in the UK?
When you have considered that, then what would you suggest is a proportionate amount of media coverage to help ensure the worst case scenario is prevented? |  | | |
| 20k Deaths in UK a good outcome from coronavirus. on 11:23 - Mar 20 with 2932 views | eireblue |
| 20k Deaths in UK a good outcome from coronavirus. on 10:20 - Mar 20 by StokieBlue |
It would be nice if you occasionally answered questions put to you.
Are the French mad? Do you concede your posts about testing were unfair and driven by the fact you just want to criticise the government?
The general public aren't qualified to interpret the esoterics of the modelling and cast a judgement. It would just be used as another stick to beat them with. They are clearly changing plans as the situation develops, that is not the same as making it up as they go along. I hope they do publish the model soon along with a simple explanation. They do have a lot on their plates at the moment.
I've said multiple times what things they could have done better and what they need to improve - I agree there are plenty of things they can improve on. However your attitude of constantly criticising everything then not rolling back when presented with evidence to the contrary really isn't helping things.
Not sure I like your last line to be honest.
SB |
To be somewhat fair, an element of what the government is doing is informed by experts.
But they are also balancing other factors, and deciding what are the best methods.
Some of these are political.
For example, I have heard from the PM and Matt Hancock, repeated use of phrases along the lines of, if people follow our advice, then things will get better quicker.
The advice being, do distancing, don’t do anything unnecessary.
If all people followed that advice, which is optimal, then there would be no customers in pubs.
A more optimal way to get to the same place quicker, is to close pubs.
I think that logic is sound.
Therefore some people may feel it worth wondering or questioning, certain government decisions.
Especially since the medical experts, don’t provide qualification, what they say is explicit. The sooner transmission of the virus is slowed down, the more likely a better outcome will happen.
The government can make choices on how to implement policies to drive that outcome. | | | |
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