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Altho they do have data on how many people are being hospitalised with C-19 symptoms, how many of those are testing positive and how many of those subsequently die. That is still a pretty good guide to the current severity of the outbreak and general trends (increasing, stable or decreasing).
With the lack of a quick, 100% reliable test for whether you actually have the illness (the current one is difficult to take a good sample, requiring a swab of a particular location at the very back of the nasal passage in the hope of picking up some of the virus if it is present and then takes a couple of days to process), or the existence of an effective post-infection/antigen test, that is the best anybody has to go on. Apart from tiny countries like Iceland (who've still only managed 10%), nobody has tested a significant proportion of their poulation, there simply aren't that many kits available.
So they just have to wait for the hospital infection numbers to come down and make a judgment from there. The hopeful thing is that some other countries further ahead of us in the progress of the disease have looked at their numbers and made the decision to start relaxing restrictions. All eyes on Wuhan and Austria to see what happens over the next couple of weeks.
The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 08:41 - Apr 17 by Steve_M
The lack of testing and the lack of checks at airports make it difficult to see that the government has got an exit strategy. Sit tight and wait for a vaccine just might not cut it.
As ever with this government though, this seems to a be a news management crisis than a public health one.
Once a country has the virus, the potential for increases in infection being brought in by people on incoming flights is infinitesimally small. It makes good PR, that's all.
The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 09:10 - Apr 17 by lowhouseblue
the mistrust of science and experts continues unabated i see.
i can't think of another example in uk government when politics and politicians have been so completely secondary to expert scientific advice. and yet twtd still knows better.
Not sure this is fair. Complaints on this thread arent anti-science - they're questionning why our scientific advice is so different from that which other countries are recieving. Countries which appear to be copinf better that we are. Is it not ok to look around you and see what we can learn from others?
Has anyone ever looked at their own postings for last day or so? Oh my... so sorry. Was Ullaa
The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 09:38 - Apr 17 by giant_stow
Not sure this is fair. Complaints on this thread arent anti-science - they're questionning why our scientific advice is so different from that which other countries are recieving. Countries which appear to be copinf better that we are. Is it not ok to look around you and see what we can learn from others?
The U-Turn on "herd immunity" after being torn apart by the wider scientific and health community definitely happened, didn't it?
There's no Tory gaslighting going on at all, right?
The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 09:38 - Apr 17 by giant_stow
Not sure this is fair. Complaints on this thread arent anti-science - they're questionning why our scientific advice is so different from that which other countries are recieving. Countries which appear to be copinf better that we are. Is it not ok to look around you and see what we can learn from others?
Like Sweden
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The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 09:43 - Apr 17 with 585 views
The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 09:38 - Apr 17 by giant_stow
Not sure this is fair. Complaints on this thread arent anti-science - they're questionning why our scientific advice is so different from that which other countries are recieving. Countries which appear to be copinf better that we are. Is it not ok to look around you and see what we can learn from others?
Which countries have significantly different scientific advice?
And do we know if it takes into account the specifics of that country's geogrpahy, demography and infrastructure?
The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to the presence of those who think they've found it.
(Sir Terry Pratchett)
The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 09:10 - Apr 17 by lowhouseblue
the mistrust of science and experts continues unabated i see.
i can't think of another example in uk government when politics and politicians have been so completely secondary to expert scientific advice. and yet twtd still knows better.
There are plenty of scientists on TWTD. In general the approach of the UK government until they changed tack was at odds with the approach recommended by the WHO and probably a majority of epidemiologists.
e.g.
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The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 09:45 - Apr 17 with 576 views
The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 09:43 - Apr 17 by gordon
There are plenty of scientists on TWTD. In general the approach of the UK government until they changed tack was at odds with the approach recommended by the WHO and probably a majority of epidemiologists.
e.g.
In what way?
They intended social distancing - implemented it, but said they didnt want to go to early for fear of fatigue setting in too early.
The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to the presence of those who think they've found it.
(Sir Terry Pratchett)
The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 09:34 - Apr 17 by Guthrum
Altho they do have data on how many people are being hospitalised with C-19 symptoms, how many of those are testing positive and how many of those subsequently die. That is still a pretty good guide to the current severity of the outbreak and general trends (increasing, stable or decreasing).
With the lack of a quick, 100% reliable test for whether you actually have the illness (the current one is difficult to take a good sample, requiring a swab of a particular location at the very back of the nasal passage in the hope of picking up some of the virus if it is present and then takes a couple of days to process), or the existence of an effective post-infection/antigen test, that is the best anybody has to go on. Apart from tiny countries like Iceland (who've still only managed 10%), nobody has tested a significant proportion of their poulation, there simply aren't that many kits available.
So they just have to wait for the hospital infection numbers to come down and make a judgment from there. The hopeful thing is that some other countries further ahead of us in the progress of the disease have looked at their numbers and made the decision to start relaxing restrictions. All eyes on Wuhan and Austria to see what happens over the next couple of weeks.
I never thought in a million years I would say this, but I actually thought Raab was spot on yesterday in his comms. The simple answer is, we don't know when such measures will have worked sufficiently that it's safe to lift some of the restrictions. We simply don't know, nobody does. It would be highly irresponsible to start putting dates on it at this stage.
I found Laura Kuenssberg's questioning most moronic. It was like she hadn't bothered to listen to the previous 30 minutes and Raab rightly put her back in her box.
As others have said, there's lots of things to challenge the govt. on IMO, but this isn't one of them.
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The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 09:46 - Apr 17 with 568 views
The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 09:45 - Apr 17 by ITFC_Forever
Not sure I would trust any data from Wuhan....
That is a significant problem. But if there is another major outbreak, they won't be able to keep it completely covered up. The Chinese public is thoroughly into social media and, like in many authoritarian countries, they have ways of conveying information in a manner designed to evade official censorship. All the world's intelligence agancies are watching closely, too.
Plus, if caught out, the Chinese regime would have serious egg on its face. Not sure they can afford that, after the initial obfustication.
The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 09:46 - Apr 17 by Chutney
I never thought in a million years I would say this, but I actually thought Raab was spot on yesterday in his comms. The simple answer is, we don't know when such measures will have worked sufficiently that it's safe to lift some of the restrictions. We simply don't know, nobody does. It would be highly irresponsible to start putting dates on it at this stage.
I found Laura Kuenssberg's questioning most moronic. It was like she hadn't bothered to listen to the previous 30 minutes and Raab rightly put her back in her box.
As others have said, there's lots of things to challenge the govt. on IMO, but this isn't one of them.
Laura K challenging the Tories, even if moronic, is promising though.
The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 09:43 - Apr 17 by sparks
Which countries have significantly different scientific advice?
And do we know if it takes into account the specifics of that country's geogrpahy, demography and infrastructure?
Someone was using France as a an example of setting an exit strategy recently. If testing is the be all and end all then I don’t know how they’re going to do It as they’re testing even less than we are!
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The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 09:55 - Apr 17 with 517 views
The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 09:50 - Apr 17 by Guthrum
That is a significant problem. But if there is another major outbreak, they won't be able to keep it completely covered up. The Chinese public is thoroughly into social media and, like in many authoritarian countries, they have ways of conveying information in a manner designed to evade official censorship. All the world's intelligence agancies are watching closely, too.
Plus, if caught out, the Chinese regime would have serious egg on its face. Not sure they can afford that, after the initial obfustication.
If the Chinese don't co operate they'll end up with a tanked economy or we all end up with WWIII so let's home it's the former.
The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 09:02 - Apr 17 by homer_123
Which government has an idea on this?
There are many governments who have managed this so much better than us. I have some sympathy for Italy and Spain who only had recent, Chinese data to go on. Despite UK having several additional weeks to plan and prepare, we have ended up with stats that are even worse than Italy or Spain (at the equivalent stage).
Oh, and why are we told to isolate to 7 days once symptoms appear, when WHO advice is to isolate for 14 days once symptoms stop?
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The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 09:56 - Apr 17 with 518 views
Have any other country got the answers either though? Not really. There is no cure/vaccine. There are no real answers as to where anyone goes next. Its no good the government making any statements as no one knows. No country has the answer. Im not sure what they can say. The social distancing will last a long long time. With no vaccine no one is immune even when lockdown is eased. No government in the world has the answer to any of this. Its going to be years before things get back to anywhere near normal.
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The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 09:57 - Apr 17 with 512 views
The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 09:36 - Apr 17 by Radlett_blue
Once a country has the virus, the potential for increases in infection being brought in by people on incoming flights is infinitesimally small. It makes good PR, that's all.
Or, it is one measure that, combined with a number of other measures, works to reduce infections and spread of infections. Germany is a good example.
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The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 09:58 - Apr 17 with 507 views
The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 09:55 - Apr 17 by monytowbray
If the Chinese don't co operate they'll end up with a tanked economy or we all end up with WWIII so let's home it's the former.
Their economy is already pretty much stuffed. Worst results since the upheaval of the Cultural Revolution and their main market places are liable to be in deep recession for some time.
Fortunately, I don't think anybody can afford a major war at the moment.
The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 09:50 - Apr 17 by Guthrum
That is a significant problem. But if there is another major outbreak, they won't be able to keep it completely covered up. The Chinese public is thoroughly into social media and, like in many authoritarian countries, they have ways of conveying information in a manner designed to evade official censorship. All the world's intelligence agancies are watching closely, too.
Plus, if caught out, the Chinese regime would have serious egg on its face. Not sure they can afford that, after the initial obfustication.
'The Chinese public is thoroughly into social media'? You do realise the Chinese government totally controls what they can see on social media don't know ? It's not like here, you maybe be able to type in www.bbc.co.uk and see everything but you do realise the Chinese Government will block stop content for Chinese people? The reason why Wechat was invented was because Chinese people couldn't gain access to other apps like WhatsApp, plus all activity on Wechat is monitored the Chinese Gov use it for state monitoring.
The Chinese Gov wouldn't care about being caught, if they did care they would have come clean when CV first broke, they really aren't interested
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The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 10:00 - Apr 17 with 505 views
The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 09:43 - Apr 17 by sparks
Which countries have significantly different scientific advice?
And do we know if it takes into account the specifics of that country's geogrpahy, demography and infrastructure?
There are big differences in scientific advice around the globe! You don't really need me to tell you that some are putting more emphasis on testing, others on earlier lockdowns, others on less lockdown, others on contact tracing. Why are our scientists right and others wrong?
Has anyone ever looked at their own postings for last day or so? Oh my... so sorry. Was Ullaa
The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 09:36 - Apr 17 by Radlett_blue
Once a country has the virus, the potential for increases in infection being brought in by people on incoming flights is infinitesimally small. It makes good PR, that's all.
Now maybe, but look at China - they're getting over their home-grown infections, but left with a problem of imported infections, albeit at a lower level.
Has anyone ever looked at their own postings for last day or so? Oh my... so sorry. Was Ullaa
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