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The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 09:46 - Apr 17 by Chutney
I never thought in a million years I would say this, but I actually thought Raab was spot on yesterday in his comms. The simple answer is, we don't know when such measures will have worked sufficiently that it's safe to lift some of the restrictions. We simply don't know, nobody does. It would be highly irresponsible to start putting dates on it at this stage.
I found Laura Kuenssberg's questioning most moronic. It was like she hadn't bothered to listen to the previous 30 minutes and Raab rightly put her back in her box.
As others have said, there's lots of things to challenge the govt. on IMO, but this isn't one of them.
Laura K never listens. She just asks the most obvious questions all the time. Whatever is said before she butts in, she just asks what has just been said. The most annoying presenter on tv.
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The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 10:04 - Apr 17 with 500 views
The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 09:58 - Apr 17 by BloomBlue
'The Chinese public is thoroughly into social media'? You do realise the Chinese government totally controls what they can see on social media don't know ? It's not like here, you maybe be able to type in www.bbc.co.uk and see everything but you do realise the Chinese Government will block stop content for Chinese people? The reason why Wechat was invented was because Chinese people couldn't gain access to other apps like WhatsApp, plus all activity on Wechat is monitored the Chinese Gov use it for state monitoring.
The Chinese Gov wouldn't care about being caught, if they did care they would have come clean when CV first broke, they really aren't interested
You can use whatsapp and get onto Google and BBC with a VPN. The Chinese are the most ingenious of people, a 13 year old could do more on a pooter than most people on TWTD.
The problem is when they turn everything off.
“Hello, I'm your MP. Actually I'm not. I'm your candidate. Gosh.”
Boris Johnson canvassing in Henley, 2005.
The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 09:43 - Apr 17 by gordon
There are plenty of scientists on TWTD. In general the approach of the UK government until they changed tack was at odds with the approach recommended by the WHO and probably a majority of epidemiologists.
e.g.
Not sure there are plenty of scientists on twtd. There are definitely lots of so called experts, who really have no clue but think they do because they read this or that. No one currently has the answer and that includes the real experts.
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The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 10:07 - Apr 17 with 495 views
The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 09:50 - Apr 17 by Guthrum
That is a significant problem. But if there is another major outbreak, they won't be able to keep it completely covered up. The Chinese public is thoroughly into social media and, like in many authoritarian countries, they have ways of conveying information in a manner designed to evade official censorship. All the world's intelligence agancies are watching closely, too.
Plus, if caught out, the Chinese regime would have serious egg on its face. Not sure they can afford that, after the initial obfustication.
Number of reported deaths in China increased today by over 1,000 but only 300 new cases reported. *
You can’t trust any statistic coming out of China.
The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 09:58 - Apr 17 by BloomBlue
'The Chinese public is thoroughly into social media'? You do realise the Chinese government totally controls what they can see on social media don't know ? It's not like here, you maybe be able to type in www.bbc.co.uk and see everything but you do realise the Chinese Government will block stop content for Chinese people? The reason why Wechat was invented was because Chinese people couldn't gain access to other apps like WhatsApp, plus all activity on Wechat is monitored the Chinese Gov use it for state monitoring.
The Chinese Gov wouldn't care about being caught, if they did care they would have come clean when CV first broke, they really aren't interested
Wechat is basically what would happen if FB/Google/Twitter/Amazon/Uber/Just Eat/Etc all combined data. In fact the reason China has one SUPERAPP for all this is because it was a later emerging tech app.
Has convenience pros for the user and at a time like this can be useful, but the privacy issues are HUGE when it comes to government surveillance.
The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 09:45 - Apr 17 by ITFC_Forever
Not sure I would trust any data from Wuhan....
I don't trust data from a single country on the planet.
I glanced at a report earlier saying that the infection and or death rate in Brazil is 15 times what the official figures are.
I absolutely trust nothing with regards to figures and I also think that current testing devices are so inadequate and unreliable that this is a reason why many countries including our own are not buying the bloody things.
“Hello, I'm your MP. Actually I'm not. I'm your candidate. Gosh.”
Boris Johnson canvassing in Henley, 2005.
The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 09:45 - Apr 17 by sparks
In what way?
They intended social distancing - implemented it, but said they didnt want to go to early for fear of fatigue setting in too early.
It's generally accepted that the lockdown will have to be longer because of that delay at the start, for example.
Some countries used the lockdown early to buy time to put in place the test, trace, isolate policy that is widely accepted as the way to deal with viral epidemics. Those countries will see lower total deaths and also less economic disruption in the long run.
Because we waited to lockdown while the infection rate was quadrupling each week, we're dealing with a much, much higher peak, which will take much longer to go fall back to a safe level where we could consider lifting the lockdown.
The delaying of the lockdown based on: 'we can't lockdown too early because people will get bored' was an enormous risk, and was based on the hope that the virus was much more widespread than it actually appears to be, such that an extra week of spread might take us from e.g. 30% to 60% infection in the community, and thus hasten the end of the epidemic.
But this wasn't based on any community testing or evidence, it was just a judgement, which looks likely to be wrong. It seems likely we're at less than 10% spread in the community still, so all those excess deaths are as a result of an assumption which looks likely to be proven quite significantly incorrect.
We are also still some way from accepting an aggressive 'test, trace, isolate' policy, because this would be an an admission that our initial approach was wrong - if you were planning to do 'test, trace' isolate' to try to suppress, why would you allow such widespread transmission by delaying lockdown?
I appreciate they aren't saying this at the briefings, but the idea that there isn't a political aspect to the briefings, and to what the scientists can and can't say is a bit naive.
I'm not saying anything that is controversial amongst epidemiologists/scientists. I work in a Biosciences Dept. of a University involved in some bits the response (I study birds though, not viruses!).
[Post edited 17 Apr 2020 10:10]
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The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 10:12 - Apr 17 with 481 views
The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 09:58 - Apr 17 by BloomBlue
'The Chinese public is thoroughly into social media'? You do realise the Chinese government totally controls what they can see on social media don't know ? It's not like here, you maybe be able to type in www.bbc.co.uk and see everything but you do realise the Chinese Government will block stop content for Chinese people? The reason why Wechat was invented was because Chinese people couldn't gain access to other apps like WhatsApp, plus all activity on Wechat is monitored the Chinese Gov use it for state monitoring.
The Chinese Gov wouldn't care about being caught, if they did care they would have come clean when CV first broke, they really aren't interested
I meant people being able to convey to the outside world things they are seeing with their eyes. In the early days of the Wuhan lockdown people started using codes based on emojis and punning references to words in the Chinese language to evade censorship.
If the authorities cut off the whole internet, then that will immediately set off alarm bells for observers.
They do care about losing face. You only have to look at the fierce defence of their actions. The initial coverup was when the regional authorities thought they could keep the whole thing contained and under wraps (also were unaware of what they were really dealing with). But it lasted considerably less time than with the SARS outbreak.
Chinese growth was already being dented by the US trade war. An increase in that, plus possibly sanctions and seizure of assets, will make things worse. Xi Jin Ping keeps the people happy with a degree of prosperity and international prestige. Without those, he is in severe danger of losing credibility and perhaps facing unrest. Even if the regime is not overthrown, he personally may fall from power, via an internal Party coup.
The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 10:10 - Apr 17 by gordon
It's generally accepted that the lockdown will have to be longer because of that delay at the start, for example.
Some countries used the lockdown early to buy time to put in place the test, trace, isolate policy that is widely accepted as the way to deal with viral epidemics. Those countries will see lower total deaths and also less economic disruption in the long run.
Because we waited to lockdown while the infection rate was quadrupling each week, we're dealing with a much, much higher peak, which will take much longer to go fall back to a safe level where we could consider lifting the lockdown.
The delaying of the lockdown based on: 'we can't lockdown too early because people will get bored' was an enormous risk, and was based on the hope that the virus was much more widespread than it actually appears to be, such that an extra week of spread might take us from e.g. 30% to 60% infection in the community, and thus hasten the end of the epidemic.
But this wasn't based on any community testing or evidence, it was just a judgement, which looks likely to be wrong. It seems likely we're at less than 10% spread in the community still, so all those excess deaths are as a result of an assumption which looks likely to be proven quite significantly incorrect.
We are also still some way from accepting an aggressive 'test, trace, isolate' policy, because this would be an an admission that our initial approach was wrong - if you were planning to do 'test, trace' isolate' to try to suppress, why would you allow such widespread transmission by delaying lockdown?
I appreciate they aren't saying this at the briefings, but the idea that there isn't a political aspect to the briefings, and to what the scientists can and can't say is a bit naive.
I'm not saying anything that is controversial amongst epidemiologists/scientists. I work in a Biosciences Dept. of a University involved in some bits the response (I study birds though, not viruses!).
[Post edited 17 Apr 2020 10:10]
All makes sense to my non-scientific mind.
I think people are getting a little institutionalised, where to even ask a question is unacceptable or disloyal.
Has anyone ever looked at their own postings for last day or so? Oh my... so sorry. Was Ullaa
The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 10:07 - Apr 17 by Pinewoodblue
Number of reported deaths in China increased today by over 1,000 but only 300 new cases reported. *
You can’t trust any statistic coming out of China.
* today’s figure is probably misreported.
Tho that was because of a revised mortality figure covering the main period of the outbreak in Wuhan. The additional 1,290 coming from 'patients who had died at home before reaching hospital, as well as late and inaccurate reporting'.
The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 09:36 - Apr 17 by Radlett_blue
Once a country has the virus, the potential for increases in infection being brought in by people on incoming flights is infinitesimally small. It makes good PR, that's all.
That's true at this stage but what happens once it is under control in Europe but a major problem in India and parts of Africa? Flights carrying on as normal are going to spread multiple waves of infections, so there would need to be some form of control there - difficult without shutting down international travel of course.
The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 10:17 - Apr 17 by Steve_M
That's true at this stage but what happens once it is under control in Europe but a major problem in India and parts of Africa? Flights carrying on as normal are going to spread multiple waves of infections, so there would need to be some form of control there - difficult without shutting down international travel of course.
It's possible to bring the spread of the virus down to manageable level, which is what the various lock-downs are doing. However, you won't eliminate it, for a time which goes well beyond a time during which it is sensible to maintain lockdown. So the difficult thing is managing the process of relaxation of lockdown, so that some economic activity can take place, without a surge in infection & those needing hospital treatment. This is a very difficult balancing act.
The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 10:10 - Apr 17 by gordon
It's generally accepted that the lockdown will have to be longer because of that delay at the start, for example.
Some countries used the lockdown early to buy time to put in place the test, trace, isolate policy that is widely accepted as the way to deal with viral epidemics. Those countries will see lower total deaths and also less economic disruption in the long run.
Because we waited to lockdown while the infection rate was quadrupling each week, we're dealing with a much, much higher peak, which will take much longer to go fall back to a safe level where we could consider lifting the lockdown.
The delaying of the lockdown based on: 'we can't lockdown too early because people will get bored' was an enormous risk, and was based on the hope that the virus was much more widespread than it actually appears to be, such that an extra week of spread might take us from e.g. 30% to 60% infection in the community, and thus hasten the end of the epidemic.
But this wasn't based on any community testing or evidence, it was just a judgement, which looks likely to be wrong. It seems likely we're at less than 10% spread in the community still, so all those excess deaths are as a result of an assumption which looks likely to be proven quite significantly incorrect.
We are also still some way from accepting an aggressive 'test, trace, isolate' policy, because this would be an an admission that our initial approach was wrong - if you were planning to do 'test, trace' isolate' to try to suppress, why would you allow such widespread transmission by delaying lockdown?
I appreciate they aren't saying this at the briefings, but the idea that there isn't a political aspect to the briefings, and to what the scientists can and can't say is a bit naive.
I'm not saying anything that is controversial amongst epidemiologists/scientists. I work in a Biosciences Dept. of a University involved in some bits the response (I study birds though, not viruses!).
[Post edited 17 Apr 2020 10:10]
When you say it is generally accepted- do you have any basis for saying that is the consensus among informed medical experts?
Even if you do- do you have any evidence that the decisions taken were manifestly wrong a tthe time they were taken? And if so, do you have any basis for saying that is a governmental issue rather than a reasonable professional opinion by experts, whcih turned out, with hindsight, to be less than ideal?
The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to the presence of those who think they've found it.
(Sir Terry Pratchett)
The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 10:15 - Apr 17 by giant_stow
All makes sense to my non-scientific mind.
I think people are getting a little institutionalised, where to even ask a question is unacceptable or disloyal.
Yes - I think the Government have pulled quite a nice trick in repeating over and over and over: 'we are following the science.'
I don't know if this is part of a comms strategy, but it's given people the idea that there is one scientific position, and their policy is simply a vessel for this one scientific position.
Science is messy and complicated and there are excellent scientists who take competing, contradictory positions on things we've known an awful lot about for many, many years.
The idea that 'the science' could be a singular, unitary thing for a new virus after a couple of months is thoroughly absurd, belittling and designed to make questioning their position seem 'unscientific.'
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The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 10:28 - Apr 17 with 447 views
The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 10:09 - Apr 17 by Lord_Lucan
I don't trust data from a single country on the planet.
I glanced at a report earlier saying that the infection and or death rate in Brazil is 15 times what the official figures are.
I absolutely trust nothing with regards to figures and I also think that current testing devices are so inadequate and unreliable that this is a reason why many countries including our own are not buying the bloody things.
Mind you, Brazil is a particularly egregious example, as President Bolsonaro still does not really believe in Covid-19 and yesterday sacked his health minister for pushing too hard for precaustions and preparations to deal with the outbreak in a country which has huge cities surrounded by crushingly poor slums.
The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 10:04 - Apr 17 by Lord_Lucan
You can use whatsapp and get onto Google and BBC with a VPN. The Chinese are the most ingenious of people, a 13 year old could do more on a pooter than most people on TWTD.
The problem is when they turn everything off.
Tho in that case the sudden communications black hole is obvious to external observers and would cause questions to be asked.
The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 10:27 - Apr 17 by gordon
Yes - I think the Government have pulled quite a nice trick in repeating over and over and over: 'we are following the science.'
I don't know if this is part of a comms strategy, but it's given people the idea that there is one scientific position, and their policy is simply a vessel for this one scientific position.
Science is messy and complicated and there are excellent scientists who take competing, contradictory positions on things we've known an awful lot about for many, many years.
The idea that 'the science' could be a singular, unitary thing for a new virus after a couple of months is thoroughly absurd, belittling and designed to make questioning their position seem 'unscientific.'
Are you now suggesting that the government have independently chosen a policy and then chosen specific scientific opinions to back it up? And are you saying that the CMO etc are privy to this, or just that (by enormous coincidence) the government's chosen course is theirs as well?
Innuendo really isnt helpful.
The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to the presence of those who think they've found it.
(Sir Terry Pratchett)
The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 10:15 - Apr 17 by giant_stow
All makes sense to my non-scientific mind.
I think people are getting a little institutionalised, where to even ask a question is unacceptable or disloyal.
I don't think that is the case, questioning is important. The problem is when some people are doing their best to twist things to find fault and revelling when they find bad news.
People on here and other social media platforms should realise that they don't know all the ins and outs (and I very much include me) and while they are sitting around in their pants there are a lot of people working like bastards trying to do the best they can in a situation no one in their life has come across before.
“Hello, I'm your MP. Actually I'm not. I'm your candidate. Gosh.”
Boris Johnson canvassing in Henley, 2005.
The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 09:46 - Apr 17 by Chutney
I never thought in a million years I would say this, but I actually thought Raab was spot on yesterday in his comms. The simple answer is, we don't know when such measures will have worked sufficiently that it's safe to lift some of the restrictions. We simply don't know, nobody does. It would be highly irresponsible to start putting dates on it at this stage.
I found Laura Kuenssberg's questioning most moronic. It was like she hadn't bothered to listen to the previous 30 minutes and Raab rightly put her back in her box.
As others have said, there's lots of things to challenge the govt. on IMO, but this isn't one of them.
I find most of the questions quite ridiculous.
Especially when for example they ask about the economy on a day when the Chancellor isn't leading the Press Conference. Raab or whoever easily push the question away by saying that's one for the Chancellor.
You would think professional journalists would be a little cuter than that
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The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 10:52 - Apr 17 with 404 views
The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 10:37 - Apr 17 by sparks
Are you now suggesting that the government have independently chosen a policy and then chosen specific scientific opinions to back it up? And are you saying that the CMO etc are privy to this, or just that (by enormous coincidence) the government's chosen course is theirs as well?
Innuendo really isnt helpful.
No, none of that, not sure where you've got any of that from.
I just think that understandably, people struggle to understand the limits to scientific knowledge/evidence in these situations (I'm saying that as a scientist), and at times the government are using this to shield themselves from criticism.
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The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 10:57 - Apr 17 with 395 views
The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 10:37 - Apr 17 by sparks
Are you now suggesting that the government have independently chosen a policy and then chosen specific scientific opinions to back it up? And are you saying that the CMO etc are privy to this, or just that (by enormous coincidence) the government's chosen course is theirs as well?
Innuendo really isnt helpful.
The number of evidence, links, posts and news you’d have to swerve to keep up this angle is insanity.
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