| The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... 08:34 - Apr 17 with 5427 views | ITFC_Forever |
....as they have no idea who has / hasn't got / has had the virus, and won't have for weeks, if not months. |  |
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| The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 15:21 - Apr 17 with 924 views | Pinewoodblue |
| The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 13:43 - Apr 17 by gordon |
There is a lot of dissent within the scientific community around the UK's strategy, so for the Government to say that they are following 'the science' as if 'the science' is a single entity is not justified. That's the extent of my point.
As a scientist, this is a really straightforward and obvious thing to point out - it isn't innuendo, I'm not making any insinuation or accusing anyone of lying, I'm just stating a rather obvious fact about the public discourse around coronavirus. Chris Witty and Patrick Vallance would agree with me on this, trust me! |
Interesting article on C-19 figures in Catalonia. The Spanish government however has no intention of changing their reported figures.
https://www.catalannews.com/society-science/item/coronavirus-in-catalonia-daily- |  |
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| The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 15:31 - Apr 17 with 891 views | lowhouseblue |
| The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 13:22 - Apr 17 by gordon |
Here's a professor of public health at Imperial College London:
"It’s now clear that so many people have died, and so many more are desperately ill, simply because our politicians refused to listen to and act on advice. Scientists like us said lock down earlier; we said test, trace, isolate. But they decided they knew better."
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/15/uk-government-coronavirus- |
they followed the advice of the scientists who are advising them. that does not imply, and no one has suggested, that all scientists agree.
they didn't decide they knew better they decided to rely upon the advice of the chief medical officer et al. |  |
| And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show |
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| The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 15:38 - Apr 17 with 880 views | gordon |
| The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 15:31 - Apr 17 by lowhouseblue |
they followed the advice of the scientists who are advising them. that does not imply, and no one has suggested, that all scientists agree.
they didn't decide they knew better they decided to rely upon the advice of the chief medical officer et al. |
So to be clear, you think that this expert in her field, who is at the heart of the decision-making process, is wrong? What qualifies you to say that? |  | | |
| The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 15:40 - Apr 17 with 872 views | lowhouseblue |
| The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 15:38 - Apr 17 by gordon |
So to be clear, you think that this expert in her field, who is at the heart of the decision-making process, is wrong? What qualifies you to say that? |
and where did i say that? do stop being silly. | |
| And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show |
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| The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 15:49 - Apr 17 with 857 views | gordon |
| The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 15:40 - Apr 17 by lowhouseblue |
and where did i say that? do stop being silly. |
You said: 'they didn't know better...' and the expert said: 'they did know better.' | | | |
| The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 15:54 - Apr 17 with 842 views | lowhouseblue |
| The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 15:49 - Apr 17 by gordon |
You said: 'they didn't know better...' and the expert said: 'they did know better.' |
err, are you playing some sort of game of non-sequiturs? i'll leave you to it. | |
| And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show |
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| The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 15:54 - Apr 17 with 844 views | TractorWood |
| The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 13:43 - Apr 17 by gordon |
There is a lot of dissent within the scientific community around the UK's strategy, so for the Government to say that they are following 'the science' as if 'the science' is a single entity is not justified. That's the extent of my point.
As a scientist, this is a really straightforward and obvious thing to point out - it isn't innuendo, I'm not making any insinuation or accusing anyone of lying, I'm just stating a rather obvious fact about the public discourse around coronavirus. Chris Witty and Patrick Vallance would agree with me on this, trust me! |
Exactly. The Government have the ability to make the science whatever they want by listening to whoever they like.
There is not one single scientist in some Ivory tower in Cambridge giving their opinion that they are following to the letter.
I see testing was up to the dizzying heights of 18,500 yesterday. Definitely some revisionism inbound on that one from Hancock. 'When I said 100k, I actually meant [exactly the most recent number]' he could go with the classic Tory denial though. Be interesting to see his response. |  |
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| The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 15:55 - Apr 17 with 844 views | sparks |
| The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 14:39 - Apr 17 by Pinewoodblue |
The government isn’t reliant of the opinion of individual experts but on a consensus. There will always be experts who disagree, some will want stricter measures while others will consider the restriction imposed are too severe.
Leave it to the experts to give appropriate advice. |
Governments dont generally even understand scientific consensus- thats what you go to experts for... |  |
| The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to the presence of those who think they've found it.
(Sir Terry Pratchett) | | Poll: | Is Fred drunk this morning? |
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| The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 15:55 - Apr 17 with 841 views | sparks |
| The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 14:55 - Apr 17 by gordon |
We can't say whether they are following the advice from SAGE because their advice or minutes from their meetings isn't being published, and it isn't made public who is present at SAGE meetings. |
They say they have follwoed advice. The CMO and others have shared a stand and given no hint to the contrary. Are they lying?
Saying "well its not innuendo, but the minutes arent published so..." is innuendo! | |
| The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to the presence of those who think they've found it.
(Sir Terry Pratchett) | | Poll: | Is Fred drunk this morning? |
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| The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 16:12 - Apr 17 with 812 views | Radlett_blue |
| The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 15:55 - Apr 17 by sparks |
They say they have follwoed advice. The CMO and others have shared a stand and given no hint to the contrary. Are they lying?
Saying "well its not innuendo, but the minutes arent published so..." is innuendo! |
I think the one thing this thread does prove is what a bad idea it would be to have all the options for easing the lock-down discussed in public over the next 3 weeks. |  |
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| The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 16:15 - Apr 17 with 805 views | gordon |
| The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 16:12 - Apr 17 by Radlett_blue |
I think the one thing this thread does prove is what a bad idea it would be to have all the options for easing the lock-down discussed in public over the next 3 weeks. |
Because external experts might comment on shortcomings in the governments plans, thus improving them? | | | |
| The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 16:27 - Apr 17 with 791 views | Radlett_blue |
| The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 16:15 - Apr 17 by gordon |
Because external experts might comment on shortcomings in the governments plans, thus improving them? |
No, because no-one can agree on anything. | |
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| The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 16:29 - Apr 17 with 788 views | Pinewoodblue |
| The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 16:15 - Apr 17 by gordon |
Because external experts might comment on shortcomings in the governments plans, thus improving them? |
Clearly they are only experts if they share your opinion. | |
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| The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 16:31 - Apr 17 with 787 views | longtimefan |
| The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 16:15 - Apr 17 by gordon |
Because external experts might comment on shortcomings in the governments plans, thus improving them? |
What they view as shortcomings might be shortcomings, but might just be a different viewpoint. You don’t go around canvassing the whole scientific community, as you’d never reach a consensus as there will always be a whole host of dissenting views. It is literally the job of the CMO to cut through this and define the advice to the Government. |  | | |
| The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 16:34 - Apr 17 with 782 views | giant_stow |
| The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 16:29 - Apr 17 by Pinewoodblue |
Clearly they are only experts if they share your opinion. |
Not fair. |  |
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| The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 17:27 - Apr 17 with 765 views | eireblue |
| The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 15:55 - Apr 17 by sparks |
They say they have follwoed advice. The CMO and others have shared a stand and given no hint to the contrary. Are they lying?
Saying "well its not innuendo, but the minutes arent published so..." is innuendo! |
Some of the scientific advise published gives estimates and a range of outcomes.
Some of the scientific input is based on “behavioural science”
And I think during this discussion, it has been acknowledged that there can be a range of views expressed by different scientists.
And I think people accept that advisors advise, politicians decide.
As was alluded to earlier, Matt Hancock pointed out in an interview that a scientist within SAGE wouldn’t know what is happening in government, since the scientist isn’t in government.
It seems straightforward to therefore see how a minister can be using scientific advice, but there is a disagreement with a specific scientist. E.g. an epidemiologist may say, lock this stuff down now, a behavioural scientist may suggest a nudge approach seems sufficient given the projection of X infections.
A minister with a bias can easily go with a particular option, and even the dissenting epidemiologist or behaviour scientist will concede he was following scientific advice. [Post edited 17 Apr 2020 18:23]
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| The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 17:43 - Apr 17 with 755 views | gordon |
| The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 17:27 - Apr 17 by eireblue |
Some of the scientific advise published gives estimates and a range of outcomes.
Some of the scientific input is based on “behavioural science”
And I think during this discussion, it has been acknowledged that there can be a range of views expressed by different scientists.
And I think people accept that advisors advise, politicians decide.
As was alluded to earlier, Matt Hancock pointed out in an interview that a scientist within SAGE wouldn’t know what is happening in government, since the scientist isn’t in government.
It seems straightforward to therefore see how a minister can be using scientific advice, but there is a disagreement with a specific scientist. E.g. an epidemiologist may say, lock this stuff down now, a behavioural scientist may suggest a nudge approach seems sufficient given the projection of X infections.
A minister with a bias can easily go with a particular option, and even the dissenting epidemiologist or behaviour scientist will concede he was following scientific advice. [Post edited 17 Apr 2020 18:23]
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Yes, I'd understood that the epidemiologists were critical of the weight given to behavioural scientists who had argued that the lockdown should be delayed - but obviously the delay now means we have to be locked down for a longer period anyway. | | | |
| The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 19:45 - Apr 17 with 716 views | sparks |
| The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 17:27 - Apr 17 by eireblue |
Some of the scientific advise published gives estimates and a range of outcomes.
Some of the scientific input is based on “behavioural science”
And I think during this discussion, it has been acknowledged that there can be a range of views expressed by different scientists.
And I think people accept that advisors advise, politicians decide.
As was alluded to earlier, Matt Hancock pointed out in an interview that a scientist within SAGE wouldn’t know what is happening in government, since the scientist isn’t in government.
It seems straightforward to therefore see how a minister can be using scientific advice, but there is a disagreement with a specific scientist. E.g. an epidemiologist may say, lock this stuff down now, a behavioural scientist may suggest a nudge approach seems sufficient given the projection of X infections.
A minister with a bias can easily go with a particular option, and even the dissenting epidemiologist or behaviour scientist will concede he was following scientific advice. [Post edited 17 Apr 2020 18:23]
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You still seem to be evading the point. They say they have followed the advice of their senior experts.
Thats either true or not. You keep hinting at it being untrue- but wont say it because you know you have no evidence for it. | |
| The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to the presence of those who think they've found it.
(Sir Terry Pratchett) | | Poll: | Is Fred drunk this morning? |
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| The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 19:47 - Apr 17 with 713 views | monytowbray |
| The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 16:29 - Apr 17 by Pinewoodblue |
Clearly they are only experts if they share your opinion. |
They say jump you say “how high?” |  |
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| The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 19:49 - Apr 17 with 710 views | monytowbray |
| The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 14:31 - Apr 17 by sparks |
So what is it you are saying?!!!
When asked, you keep saying that you are just making the point that there is diverse opinion. Which is entirely obvious to most of us.
But then you come back with suggestions that advice has not been heeded or governments are doing their own thing. .. |
Love a good Sparks SWERVE where he changes the point to a non-existent one. | |
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| The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 19:51 - Apr 17 with 706 views | monytowbray |
Bloody Political Point Scorers. | |
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| The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 20:15 - Apr 17 with 692 views | eireblue |
| The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 19:45 - Apr 17 by sparks |
You still seem to be evading the point. They say they have followed the advice of their senior experts.
Thats either true or not. You keep hinting at it being untrue- but wont say it because you know you have no evidence for it. |
That was my first post in this thread.
The point of that post was to show it is possible to say you are following scientific advice.
There is evidence for my post. It is the SAGE advice, itself.
It includes a range of possible outcomes, based on estimates of spread given certain parameters.
As is input from behaviour scientists.
Matt Hancock explicitly stated a SAGE scientist wasn’t part of what happens in government.
And if you read the SAGE advice, not all of it was followed.
Stating, “we are following expert opinion”, includes following behavioural science advice.
I have already said, in other threads, that I think it is perfectly plausible that a degree of political bias and group think and reliance on behavioural science and nudge theory is a reason the U.K. shut down in the manner it did.
Prior to the shutdown, I also suggested it was ineffective to ask people not to go to pubs, for example, since if people obeyed, the pubs would shut anyway. The most effective way to stop people going to pubs, is to have a lockdown.
I haven’t evaded the point at all. I have been fairly consistent. | | | |
| The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 20:17 - Apr 17 with 690 views | monytowbray |
| The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 20:15 - Apr 17 by eireblue |
That was my first post in this thread.
The point of that post was to show it is possible to say you are following scientific advice.
There is evidence for my post. It is the SAGE advice, itself.
It includes a range of possible outcomes, based on estimates of spread given certain parameters.
As is input from behaviour scientists.
Matt Hancock explicitly stated a SAGE scientist wasn’t part of what happens in government.
And if you read the SAGE advice, not all of it was followed.
Stating, “we are following expert opinion”, includes following behavioural science advice.
I have already said, in other threads, that I think it is perfectly plausible that a degree of political bias and group think and reliance on behavioural science and nudge theory is a reason the U.K. shut down in the manner it did.
Prior to the shutdown, I also suggested it was ineffective to ask people not to go to pubs, for example, since if people obeyed, the pubs would shut anyway. The most effective way to stop people going to pubs, is to have a lockdown.
I haven’t evaded the point at all. I have been fairly consistent. |
You’re about to get a lesson in mental gymnastics by a lawyer who doesn’t like being wrong.
I’ve got my popcorn ready. Usually I’m on the receiving end of this nonsense but I think he’s Div listed me. | |
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| The Government have no idea when the lockdown will finish.... on 20:42 - Apr 17 with 669 views | hype313 |
How can you pin a date to an end of a pandemic? Week Tuesday at 11.30? |  |
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