| What is your ill-educated theory about Covid-19 13:48 - Apr 24 with 2874 views | NotSure |
Mine is that it has gone away for the summer. Rhino and Corona viruses are always more prevalent during Winter and we should open up completely between May and September.
It will then come back (and possibly mutate to something much worse) and there will be complete lockdown between October and February.
It's not just this football season that is stuffed! |  | | |  |
| What is your ill-educated theory about Covid-19 on 15:35 - Apr 24 with 538 views | factual_blue |
It's spread by pasta.
DO NOT BUY ANY MORE PASTA. TELL ALL YOUR FRIENDS THIS, ESPECIALLY THOSE WHO SHOP IN WAITROSE, BURY ST EDMUNDS. [Post edited 24 Apr 2020 15:46]
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| What is your ill-educated theory about Covid-19 on 15:36 - Apr 24 with 532 views | monytowbray |
| What is your ill-educated theory about Covid-19 on 15:31 - Apr 24 by Guthrum |
Not as early as October. Doctors noticed the first unusual pneumonia cases at the start of December. So the origin is not going to be more than a week or so before that. Tho it will have existed in bats (and possibly pangolin) for a very long time before that.
Evolution - a single genetic mutation - happens in just one generation. Which isn't long for a virus. What can take time is that then spreading through the population. But, again, rapid reproduction helps. Part of the reason viruses can be so dangerous. |
A lot of GPs are now saying in hindsight they may have seen cases as early as December though. Yet our peak didn’t arrive until April. Hence my amateur theory. |  |
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| What is your ill-educated theory about Covid-19 on 15:46 - Apr 24 with 515 views | NthQldITFC |
| What is your ill-educated theory about Covid-19 on 15:19 - Apr 24 by blueprint |
I’m with you there. |
Well he doesn't want you with him, so push off! |  |
| # WE ARE STEALING THE FUTURE FROM OUR CHILDREN --- WE MUST CHANGE COURSE # | | Poll: | It's driving me nuts |
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| What is your ill-educated theory about Covid-19 on 16:09 - Apr 24 with 501 views | Guthrum |
| What is your ill-educated theory about Covid-19 on 15:36 - Apr 24 by monytowbray |
A lot of GPs are now saying in hindsight they may have seen cases as early as December though. Yet our peak didn’t arrive until April. Hence my amateur theory. |
It could certainly have spread to the UK sooner than we thought. All it needs is one infected person flying in from Wuhan. Tho it's also the case that symptoms for a fair number of other things are similar to C-19.
However a slow start could be explained by - and here's my pet theory - Covid transmitting through the populace a lot slower than the experts have been modelling. The Austrian and German large-sample experiments, along with a smaller one in the UK, suggest a very low percentage of the population have the disease, between 0.7 and just over 3%. Thus the chances of encountering somebody with it (unless you work in a hospital) are relatively low. So, consequently, are the chances of catching it, especially during lockdown.
I don't believe the studies predicting that up to 80% of us have had C-19. They simply don't match the evidence.
Which also means it may die out (or at least down) at some point due to the lack of fresh hosts. |  |
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| What is your ill-educated theory about Covid-19 on 16:16 - Apr 24 with 492 views | BlueBadger |
| What is your ill-educated theory about Covid-19 on 14:00 - Apr 24 by Lord_Lucan |
My theory is that we haven't seen anything yet. |
My money is on the Nightingale(current occupancy:16) coming more into its own when we start opening up again and a 'second wave' hits. |  |
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| What is your ill-educated theory about Covid-19 on 16:20 - Apr 24 with 480 views | monytowbray |
| What is your ill-educated theory about Covid-19 on 16:09 - Apr 24 by Guthrum |
It could certainly have spread to the UK sooner than we thought. All it needs is one infected person flying in from Wuhan. Tho it's also the case that symptoms for a fair number of other things are similar to C-19.
However a slow start could be explained by - and here's my pet theory - Covid transmitting through the populace a lot slower than the experts have been modelling. The Austrian and German large-sample experiments, along with a smaller one in the UK, suggest a very low percentage of the population have the disease, between 0.7 and just over 3%. Thus the chances of encountering somebody with it (unless you work in a hospital) are relatively low. So, consequently, are the chances of catching it, especially during lockdown.
I don't believe the studies predicting that up to 80% of us have had C-19. They simply don't match the evidence.
Which also means it may die out (or at least down) at some point due to the lack of fresh hosts. |
The 80% theory if true would be part of what I'd be banking on. I do find it hard to believe with international travel being what it is though that this illness kicked off in one part of China in November meaning it all kicked off in December/January, yet the rest of the world have had their peaks at different times. I mean, how did Northern Italy go so mad whilst India, Africa and Russia were much delayed? Stuff still does not add up for me. I'm confident science will find the answer in the near future, but for now there are too many unknowns. The best theory we have, scientists have even stressed, is the most likely based on current evidence but they can't say for sure. | |
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| What is your ill-educated theory about Covid-19 on 16:45 - Apr 24 with 449 views | C_HealyIsAPleasure |
| What is your ill-educated theory about Covid-19 on 16:16 - Apr 24 by BlueBadger |
My money is on the Nightingale(current occupancy:16) coming more into its own when we start opening up again and a 'second wave' hits. |
The nightingale facilities are probably the opposite side of my ‘decisions that look terrible now may not be so bad in time’ coin
I think even the biggest government basher would consider the quick construction one of them few successes (well actually they’ll probably credit the army but still), and yet they could feasibly prove to be largely pointless |  |
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| What is your ill-educated theory about Covid-19 on 17:10 - Apr 24 with 428 views | NotSure |
| What is your ill-educated theory about Covid-19 on 16:09 - Apr 24 by Guthrum |
It could certainly have spread to the UK sooner than we thought. All it needs is one infected person flying in from Wuhan. Tho it's also the case that symptoms for a fair number of other things are similar to C-19.
However a slow start could be explained by - and here's my pet theory - Covid transmitting through the populace a lot slower than the experts have been modelling. The Austrian and German large-sample experiments, along with a smaller one in the UK, suggest a very low percentage of the population have the disease, between 0.7 and just over 3%. Thus the chances of encountering somebody with it (unless you work in a hospital) are relatively low. So, consequently, are the chances of catching it, especially during lockdown.
I don't believe the studies predicting that up to 80% of us have had C-19. They simply don't match the evidence.
Which also means it may die out (or at least down) at some point due to the lack of fresh hosts. |
This an ill-educated thread. It appears you are over-qualified for it. | | | |
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| What is your ill-educated theory about Covid-19 on 17:11 - Apr 24 with 421 views | Swansea_Blue |
| What is your ill-educated theory about Covid-19 on 14:34 - Apr 24 by J2BLUE |
You can cherry pick news stories to prove everything is rapidly improving or we are all fooked. The only real answer we have at the moment is no one knows. |
I do. Not telling though, it would spoil the fun. |  |
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| What is your ill-educated theory about Covid-19 on 17:25 - Apr 24 with 415 views | Guthrum |
| What is your ill-educated theory about Covid-19 on 16:20 - Apr 24 by monytowbray |
The 80% theory if true would be part of what I'd be banking on. I do find it hard to believe with international travel being what it is though that this illness kicked off in one part of China in November meaning it all kicked off in December/January, yet the rest of the world have had their peaks at different times. I mean, how did Northern Italy go so mad whilst India, Africa and Russia were much delayed? Stuff still does not add up for me. I'm confident science will find the answer in the near future, but for now there are too many unknowns. The best theory we have, scientists have even stressed, is the most likely based on current evidence but they can't say for sure. |
Hmm. I think the 80% theory was just a statistical excercise designed to generate some good headlines and boost the markets a bit. We don't even know if immunity works (let alone the herd variety). So having a small enough penetration that we could potentially starve the disease of new hosts and force it into abeyance might be a better option. Would certainly follow the pattern of China and South Korea, plus possibly Australia and NZ, where the virus died down pretty much of its own accord without most of the population (apparently) having caught it. Quicker than developing and testing a vaccine, too.
It takes time for diseases to travel around. After all, someone has to have it, then, before they get very ill, travel to another location. The people they infect (if they do) then take five days for any symptoms to show. From there, it depends how extensive the networks of those new cases are and how many they pass it on to for how quickly the new domestic outbreak develops. This process can be slowed by quarantine and closed borders, as well as tracing and containment measures.
Plus some of these countries being very large and perhaps very rural, it takes time to spread around them and the infection rates to take off.
Also, luck plays a part. In Italy, there was one case misdiagnosed, a 38 year old man, who went on to infect a large number of people before finally being hospitalised, where he spread the disease further. Once it had got into the hospitals, it caused major problems, with staff falling sick or having to isolate. Lombardy is also by some way the most populous region of Italy, with pretty much joint highest population density. | |
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| What is your ill-educated theory about Covid-19 on 17:32 - Apr 24 with 406 views | vapour_trail |
| What is your ill-educated theory about Covid-19 on 14:56 - Apr 24 by giant_stow |
Mrs ulla listens to podcast by a bloke called Sam Harris, who apparently is well-known. Anyway, he reckons that this isn't even the 'big one' pandemic and that Covid should be a seen as a dry-run for that.
Not mine, but spicey. |
FFS, how many times Ulla, nobody here is interested in what your sister does in her spare time |  |
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| What is your ill-educated theory about Covid-19 on 18:02 - Apr 24 with 396 views | BarcaBlue |
My theory was that early reports of the virus originating in pangolins was an attempt by the wwf or similar to stop their slaughter and consumption. I predict the next outbreak to put rhinos under suspicion, then maybe sharks. |  | | |
| What is your ill-educated theory about Covid-19 on 18:15 - Apr 24 with 383 views | Swansea_Blue |
| What is your ill-educated theory about Covid-19 on 17:32 - Apr 24 by vapour_trail |
FFS, how many times Ulla, nobody here is interested in what your sister does in her spare time |
I'm half tempted to vote for Ullaa as POTY at the end of this year. He must have the patience of a saint to put up with half a dozen incest jokes each time he posts, but at least he can count them on one hand... | |
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| What is your ill-educated theory about Covid-19 on 19:23 - Apr 24 with 340 views | lowhouseblue |
| What is your ill-educated theory about Covid-19 on 13:58 - Apr 24 by Swansea_Blue |
Alcohol is supposed to be effective at killing the cells, so it stands to reason that we should all remain thoroughly pissed until they find a vaccine. Def info. |
alcohol is a disinfectant so donald trump is entirely right |  |
| And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show |
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