| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 10:03 - Apr 28 with 2307 views | StokieBlue |
Really not good.
The fact he even still has to reference that it's not a flu is worrying, people really should understand this by now but I guess some still push the equivalence.
There is also the worry that the infection levels of the population could actually be quite low. It was cited on here yesterday that the government are working on rates between 2% and 5% of the population having been infected thus far which isn't too far from the German study. At the moment we simply don't know though.
If that is the case then the deaths are from a relatively small number of infections. More data is needed.
SB |  | |  |
| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 10:04 - Apr 28 with 2268 views | Bluefish |
If the virus went away today it would be interesting to see the impact on an annual average. Many of the care home ones might not have lasted the year and monthly figures might be less than the normal average for the rest of the year plus less RTAs deaths at work etc. |  |
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| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 10:12 - Apr 28 with 2231 views | homer_123 |
| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 10:03 - Apr 28 by StokieBlue |
Really not good.
The fact he even still has to reference that it's not a flu is worrying, people really should understand this by now but I guess some still push the equivalence.
There is also the worry that the infection levels of the population could actually be quite low. It was cited on here yesterday that the government are working on rates between 2% and 5% of the population having been infected thus far which isn't too far from the German study. At the moment we simply don't know though.
If that is the case then the deaths are from a relatively small number of infections. More data is needed.
SB |
Without wanting to be overtly negative.
My sense is that it feels like we are gearing up for a significant re-bound when restrictions are lifted.
I note that New Zealand are talking positively about their situation and the numbers from China are still very 'positive' (if one can trust such figures). But given the huge levels of uncertainty and knowledge around the virus - I do fear a significant bounce not just here but elsewhere.
We appear to be neither trying to wipe it out with a total lockdown nor fully looking at herd immunity.
I'm very likely to be wrong but that's my sense. |  |
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| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 10:13 - Apr 28 with 2216 views | gordon |
| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 10:03 - Apr 28 by StokieBlue |
Really not good.
The fact he even still has to reference that it's not a flu is worrying, people really should understand this by now but I guess some still push the equivalence.
There is also the worry that the infection levels of the population could actually be quite low. It was cited on here yesterday that the government are working on rates between 2% and 5% of the population having been infected thus far which isn't too far from the German study. At the moment we simply don't know though.
If that is the case then the deaths are from a relatively small number of infections. More data is needed.
SB |
The reference to flu is a nod to the fact that SAGE/Government were basing decision-making on an influenza pandemic model for too long, which is why our early decision-making looks odd now. |  | | |
| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 10:22 - Apr 28 with 2173 views | NotSure |
So looking at the spreadsheet …
11,854 extra deaths in week ending 17th April.
8,758 Deaths where Covid-19 mentioned on the death certificate (And 86% where Covid-19 was underlying cause).
Which leaves us with 3,096 extra unexplained deaths when comparing against the 5 year average.
And it's the 3.096 which worries me the most.
It appears the current lock down is causing extra deaths. |  | | |
| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 10:25 - Apr 28 with 2141 views | BlueBadger |
| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 10:22 - Apr 28 by NotSure |
So looking at the spreadsheet …
11,854 extra deaths in week ending 17th April.
8,758 Deaths where Covid-19 mentioned on the death certificate (And 86% where Covid-19 was underlying cause).
Which leaves us with 3,096 extra unexplained deaths when comparing against the 5 year average.
And it's the 3.096 which worries me the most.
It appears the current lock down is causing extra deaths. |
Just out of interest, which member of your household is going to give up their life for you in order that you can go to the pub? |  |
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| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 10:26 - Apr 28 with 2132 views | gordon |
| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 10:12 - Apr 28 by homer_123 |
Without wanting to be overtly negative.
My sense is that it feels like we are gearing up for a significant re-bound when restrictions are lifted.
I note that New Zealand are talking positively about their situation and the numbers from China are still very 'positive' (if one can trust such figures). But given the huge levels of uncertainty and knowledge around the virus - I do fear a significant bounce not just here but elsewhere.
We appear to be neither trying to wipe it out with a total lockdown nor fully looking at herd immunity.
I'm very likely to be wrong but that's my sense. |
We are stuck between the knowledge that our initial strategy allowed infection rates to spread much higher than was necessary, but IF* the penetration is now less than say 15%, then the initial plan that we could let the virus pass through the population while protecting the vulnerable is not feasible.
But, to pivot from allowing controlled spread to a strategy of aggressively trying to go after the virus and suppress every infection/cluster is going to be very tough now, because we've let infections spread to a level that it will be a long time before the lockdown gets numbers down to a level that we could realistically track and isolate each and every case.
Negativity about the situation is entirely rational, in my opinion, it's a cock-up of pretty significant proportions. | | | |
| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 10:27 - Apr 28 with 2118 views | sparks |
| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 10:22 - Apr 28 by NotSure |
So looking at the spreadsheet …
11,854 extra deaths in week ending 17th April.
8,758 Deaths where Covid-19 mentioned on the death certificate (And 86% where Covid-19 was underlying cause).
Which leaves us with 3,096 extra unexplained deaths when comparing against the 5 year average.
And it's the 3.096 which worries me the most.
It appears the current lock down is causing extra deaths. |
Argument from ignorance fallacy. |  |
| The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to the presence of those who think they've found it.
(Sir Terry Pratchett) | | Poll: | Is Fred drunk this morning? |
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| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 10:29 - Apr 28 with 2106 views | BlueBadger |
| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 10:22 - Apr 28 by NotSure |
So looking at the spreadsheet …
11,854 extra deaths in week ending 17th April.
8,758 Deaths where Covid-19 mentioned on the death certificate (And 86% where Covid-19 was underlying cause).
Which leaves us with 3,096 extra unexplained deaths when comparing against the 5 year average.
And it's the 3.096 which worries me the most.
It appears the current lock down is causing extra deaths. |
You'd likely have a much, much, much higher covid-attributed deaths figure though.
But hey, you'd be able to go to the pub. | |
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| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 10:30 - Apr 28 with 2095 views | WeWereZombies |
| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 10:12 - Apr 28 by homer_123 |
Without wanting to be overtly negative.
My sense is that it feels like we are gearing up for a significant re-bound when restrictions are lifted.
I note that New Zealand are talking positively about their situation and the numbers from China are still very 'positive' (if one can trust such figures). But given the huge levels of uncertainty and knowledge around the virus - I do fear a significant bounce not just here but elsewhere.
We appear to be neither trying to wipe it out with a total lockdown nor fully looking at herd immunity.
I'm very likely to be wrong but that's my sense. |
'the numbers from China are still very 'positive' (if one can trust such figures).'
Or if we can get our heads around how other nations do things differently. Not about China, but this morning's BBC article on India cites their apparent lower infection and death rate as having a lack of notification as a factor:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-52435463
'"A lot of people get some medical attention over time, return and die at home in India," says Dr Jha.'
'Many of India's dead are cremated in the open in large swathes of the countryside. Funeral services cater only to a small sliver of the population.'
There are World Health Organisation professionals working in China and India so there is not a complete lack of visibility. We must be careful not to dismiss data out of hand but getting an even playing field on these numbers may never happen. |  |
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| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 10:30 - Apr 28 with 2094 views | NotSure |
| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 10:25 - Apr 28 by BlueBadger |
Just out of interest, which member of your household is going to give up their life for you in order that you can go to the pub? |
I don't want to go to the pub. They are currently correctly closed.
What a strange question. | | | |
| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 10:31 - Apr 28 with 2092 views | footers |
So having looked at the numbers, what I've surmised is that it's probably OK to flaunt the lockdown and invite people round so long as they sit in the garden. Is that correct? |  |
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| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 10:31 - Apr 28 with 2083 views | NotSure |
| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 10:27 - Apr 28 by sparks |
Argument from ignorance fallacy. |
Really, are you going to explain the extra deaths to me or are we all just making pointless replies that add nothing. | | | |
| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 10:34 - Apr 28 with 2051 views | BlueBadger |
| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 10:31 - Apr 28 by NotSure |
Really, are you going to explain the extra deaths to me or are we all just making pointless replies that add nothing. |
An awful lot are likely to be untested suspected covids - people living alone who are unwell, care home residents, people's vulnerable relatives. You know, the ones you were happy to sacrifice so you could go and get a big mac. | |
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| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 10:37 - Apr 28 with 2023 views | NotSure |
| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 10:34 - Apr 28 by BlueBadger |
An awful lot are likely to be untested suspected covids - people living alone who are unwell, care home residents, people's vulnerable relatives. You know, the ones you were happy to sacrifice so you could go and get a big mac. |
Again a good start to your argument and you make some good points.
I'm assuming coroners are overworked at present and Covid-19 cases will be missed.
But you just couldn't help yourself at the end and made up another lie about me. | | | |
| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 10:39 - Apr 28 with 2012 views | factual_blue |
| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 10:30 - Apr 28 by NotSure |
I don't want to go to the pub. They are currently correctly closed.
What a strange question. |
It's not a strange question to ask somebody who posts this
This pressure to end the lockdown by NotSure 27 Apr 2020 9:28You talk of ten of thousands of deaths.
I know this is unpleasant to say but the vast majority of these people who died were economically inactive. Every death is a tragedy but this disease is currently not killing many young people.
My household doesn't care about this lockdown anymore and just like my neighbours on either side we are going out when we want and accepting visitors.
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| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 10:40 - Apr 28 with 2004 views | BlueBadger |
| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 10:37 - Apr 28 by NotSure |
Again a good start to your argument and you make some good points.
I'm assuming coroners are overworked at present and Covid-19 cases will be missed.
But you just couldn't help yourself at the end and made up another lie about me. |
Sorry, I've re-read what you said and I should have said 'people you were happy to sacrifice so your mates could come round to play'. | |
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| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 10:45 - Apr 28 with 1961 views | factual_blue |
| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 10:31 - Apr 28 by footers |
So having looked at the numbers, what I've surmised is that it's probably OK to flaunt the lockdown and invite people round so long as they sit in the garden. Is that correct? |
I'm on my way. Fire up the BBQ. | |
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| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 10:49 - Apr 28 with 1940 views | NotSure |
| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 10:40 - Apr 28 by BlueBadger |
Sorry, I've re-read what you said and I should have said 'people you were happy to sacrifice so your mates could come round to play'. |
That's better. Apology accepted. | | | |
| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 10:51 - Apr 28 with 1937 views | StokieBlue |
| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 10:22 - Apr 28 by NotSure |
So looking at the spreadsheet …
11,854 extra deaths in week ending 17th April.
8,758 Deaths where Covid-19 mentioned on the death certificate (And 86% where Covid-19 was underlying cause).
Which leaves us with 3,096 extra unexplained deaths when comparing against the 5 year average.
And it's the 3.096 which worries me the most.
It appears the current lock down is causing extra deaths. |
The continual attempts to justify your selfish decision to ignore the lockdown are pathetic.
Just follow the rules you numpty.
SB [Post edited 28 Apr 2020 10:52]
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| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 10:53 - Apr 28 with 1912 views | BlueBadger |
| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 10:51 - Apr 28 by StokieBlue |
The continual attempts to justify your selfish decision to ignore the lockdown are pathetic.
Just follow the rules you numpty.
SB [Post edited 28 Apr 2020 10:52]
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It's almost admirable that a tiny proportion of dickheads STILL persist in trying this one in a desperate attempt to look edgy. Even Banksy's largely given up.
The sad thing is, none of these CIL tribute acts have have the level of articulacy and literacy that she did. | |
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| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 10:56 - Apr 28 with 1903 views | factual_blue |
| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 10:25 - Apr 28 by BlueBadger |
Just out of interest, which member of your household is going to give up their life for you in order that you can go to the pub? |
Greater love hath no man than this, that a man lay down his life for his relative to go to the pub. | |
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| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 10:56 - Apr 28 with 1899 views | footers |
| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 10:45 - Apr 28 by factual_blue |
I'm on my way. Fire up the BBQ. |
Perfect weather for it too. I'll save you a soggy sausage. Don't forget to bring Mrs Facters and the neighbours as well. | |
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| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 10:58 - Apr 28 with 1891 views | factual_blue |
| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 10:56 - Apr 28 by footers |
Perfect weather for it too. I'll save you a soggy sausage. Don't forget to bring Mrs Facters and the neighbours as well. |
I look forward to your soggy sausage. | |
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| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 11:00 - Apr 28 with 1885 views | sparks |
| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 10:31 - Apr 28 by NotSure |
Really, are you going to explain the extra deaths to me or are we all just making pointless replies that add nothing. |
That is also an argument from ignorance fallacy.
When you say "here is something. I dont know of another explanation, so it must be this" you are committing one of the most obvious fallacies imaginable. It is not for others to offer you explanations. | |
| The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to the presence of those who think they've found it.
(Sir Terry Pratchett) | | Poll: | Is Fred drunk this morning? |
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