| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 14:46 - Apr 28 with 645 views | Bluesquid |
| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 14:08 - Apr 28 by StokieBlue |
It's a false equivalence as you well know. I remember your posts a few months ago saying C19 was overblown and no worse than flu. Since then you've attempted to use mortality rates to justify that viewpoint without factoring in the r0.
They don't speak for themselves because:
- The r0 rate of seasonal flu is lower than C19
- The mortality rate of seasonal flu is lower than C19
- Those numbers are with everyone going about their daily life as normal
- If there had been no restrictions then the deaths from C19 would be massively higher than what you are citing as an equivalence
- There is no evidence this is seasonal at the moment
- The final figures for recent months are likely to change
Essentially you are deliberately comparing two things as equivalent which aren't and you've been doing it for months. I've asked why and you've never answered.
I think everyone is pretty sick of you downplaying things with virtually every post. What is the endgame? What is your actual point?
SB [Post edited 28 Apr 2020 14:09]
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We all know how this will end Stokie, you will fabricate something and then attack me based on your fabrication and the exchange will end with you posting something to me along the lines of - "You're disingenuous and pathetic."
Just look at this thread where i stated quite clearly "possible VAP and HAP" but that didn't stop you from making stuff up.
UK could be worst hit in Europe by Herbivore 12 Apr 2020 13:12In terms of Covid-19 fatalities: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52261859
Hard to see this as scaremongering given successive days of 900+ fatalities and a higher daily fatality rate on our worst day than on the worst days in China, Italy and Spain. Bear in mind that we looked on in horror at what was happening in those countries just a few weeks ago.
Considering it started to hit here later than in the rest of mainland Europe, in theory giving us time to prepare and mitigate, that's pretty scandalous. The inquest will come in some months' time but I struggle to see how anyone can think this has been handled competently.
No Stokie, i've been in too many exchanges with you to know that you don't play fair and often rely on fitting someone up in order to then attack them (sometimes i wonder if you are actually unaware that you are doing it).
lol and the amount of times you have to bring in other posters on the board to back you up is just insane and you've just gone and done it again, idk, and i don't think i'm the only poster on the board who has noticed it either.  |  | |  |
| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 14:49 - Apr 28 with 638 views | sparks |
| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 14:46 - Apr 28 by Bluesquid |
We all know how this will end Stokie, you will fabricate something and then attack me based on your fabrication and the exchange will end with you posting something to me along the lines of - "You're disingenuous and pathetic."
Just look at this thread where i stated quite clearly "possible VAP and HAP" but that didn't stop you from making stuff up.
UK could be worst hit in Europe by Herbivore 12 Apr 2020 13:12In terms of Covid-19 fatalities: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52261859
Hard to see this as scaremongering given successive days of 900+ fatalities and a higher daily fatality rate on our worst day than on the worst days in China, Italy and Spain. Bear in mind that we looked on in horror at what was happening in those countries just a few weeks ago.
Considering it started to hit here later than in the rest of mainland Europe, in theory giving us time to prepare and mitigate, that's pretty scandalous. The inquest will come in some months' time but I struggle to see how anyone can think this has been handled competently.
No Stokie, i've been in too many exchanges with you to know that you don't play fair and often rely on fitting someone up in order to then attack them (sometimes i wonder if you are actually unaware that you are doing it).
lol and the amount of times you have to bring in other posters on the board to back you up is just insane and you've just gone and done it again, idk, and i don't think i'm the only poster on the board who has noticed it either. |
So you are not going to address the very simple and clear query abotu the point you seek to make then? Surprise. |  |
| The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to the presence of those who think they've found it.
(Sir Terry Pratchett) | | Poll: | Is Fred drunk this morning? |
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| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 14:57 - Apr 28 with 617 views | manchego |
| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 10:31 - Apr 28 by NotSure |
Really, are you going to explain the extra deaths to me or are we all just making pointless replies that add nothing. |
No he doesn't have to explain those deaths to you.
The point is that the conclusion you reached was a fallacy. |  | | |
| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 15:03 - Apr 28 with 600 views | StokieBlue |
| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 14:46 - Apr 28 by Bluesquid |
We all know how this will end Stokie, you will fabricate something and then attack me based on your fabrication and the exchange will end with you posting something to me along the lines of - "You're disingenuous and pathetic."
Just look at this thread where i stated quite clearly "possible VAP and HAP" but that didn't stop you from making stuff up.
UK could be worst hit in Europe by Herbivore 12 Apr 2020 13:12In terms of Covid-19 fatalities: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52261859
Hard to see this as scaremongering given successive days of 900+ fatalities and a higher daily fatality rate on our worst day than on the worst days in China, Italy and Spain. Bear in mind that we looked on in horror at what was happening in those countries just a few weeks ago.
Considering it started to hit here later than in the rest of mainland Europe, in theory giving us time to prepare and mitigate, that's pretty scandalous. The inquest will come in some months' time but I struggle to see how anyone can think this has been handled competently.
No Stokie, i've been in too many exchanges with you to know that you don't play fair and often rely on fitting someone up in order to then attack them (sometimes i wonder if you are actually unaware that you are doing it).
lol and the amount of times you have to bring in other posters on the board to back you up is just insane and you've just gone and done it again, idk, and i don't think i'm the only poster on the board who has noticed it either. |
I am getting rather fed up with a few posters who are unable to debate sensibly accusing me of this. It's making the board an unpleasant place to be to have to defend myself against posters talking absolute nonsense.
I hope people do go read the thread you've linked as I've not done as you've accused and other have called you out on the same thing in that thread.
What other posters have I asked to back me up? It was a statement of fact proven by the fact a number of posters have replied to you.
And you've still not answered the question. Making up stuff about "playing fair" is just a way to try and not have to answer.
SB [Post edited 28 Apr 2020 15:06]
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| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 15:06 - Apr 28 with 579 views | Bluesquid |
| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 14:49 - Apr 28 by sparks |
So you are not going to address the very simple and clear query abotu the point you seek to make then? Surprise. |
Well the OP suggests "ONS chart shows this is no flu" and you probably knew but I was unsure if other posters were aware or not that very high levels of flu were seen in 1999/00, when there were 48,000 excess winter deaths. | | | |
| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 15:08 - Apr 28 with 579 views | DanTheMan |
| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 15:03 - Apr 28 by StokieBlue |
I am getting rather fed up with a few posters who are unable to debate sensibly accusing me of this. It's making the board an unpleasant place to be to have to defend myself against posters talking absolute nonsense.
I hope people do go read the thread you've linked as I've not done as you've accused and other have called you out on the same thing in that thread.
What other posters have I asked to back me up? It was a statement of fact proven by the fact a number of posters have replied to you.
And you've still not answered the question. Making up stuff about "playing fair" is just a way to try and not have to answer.
SB [Post edited 28 Apr 2020 15:06]
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Obviously you get your Stokie signal out and call us to be big meanies and respond to posts on a public forum with you.
And not just that a few of us get annoyed by the same waffle from the conspiracy theorists pushing their always credible contrarian view. |  |
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| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 15:21 - Apr 28 with 551 views | sparks |
| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 15:06 - Apr 28 by Bluesquid |
Well the OP suggests "ONS chart shows this is no flu" and you probably knew but I was unsure if other posters were aware or not that very high levels of flu were seen in 1999/00, when there were 48,000 excess winter deaths. |
And why do you say that compairson is relevant or important. Or that this "fact" of yours needs to be raised here? | |
| The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to the presence of those who think they've found it.
(Sir Terry Pratchett) | | Poll: | Is Fred drunk this morning? |
| |
| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 15:23 - Apr 28 with 536 views | lowhouseblue |
| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 15:06 - Apr 28 by Bluesquid |
Well the OP suggests "ONS chart shows this is no flu" and you probably knew but I was unsure if other posters were aware or not that very high levels of flu were seen in 1999/00, when there were 48,000 excess winter deaths. |
how are 'excess winter deaths' defined in your chart? given that in no year is the 'excess' less than 20,000, that implies that it must be excess over some other season? summer?
but all the covid-19 death data is seasonally adjusted already - the current excess is the number over the 5 year average for the same week. so you're not comparing the same things. [Post edited 28 Apr 2020 15:24]
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| And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show |
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| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 15:28 - Apr 28 with 503 views | Bluesquid |
| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 15:21 - Apr 28 by sparks |
And why do you say that compairson is relevant or important. Or that this "fact" of yours needs to be raised here? |
It's not my "fact" though is it? It's from the ONS.
Because perhaps many are not aware just how dangerous the flu is and unaware just how many it kills.
I was pretty shocked tbh to see that very high levels of flu were seen in 1999/00 with 48,000 excess winter deaths and that is the reason why i posted. | | | |
| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 15:39 - Apr 28 with 479 views | manchego |
| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 15:28 - Apr 28 by Bluesquid |
It's not my "fact" though is it? It's from the ONS.
Because perhaps many are not aware just how dangerous the flu is and unaware just how many it kills.
I was pretty shocked tbh to see that very high levels of flu were seen in 1999/00 with 48,000 excess winter deaths and that is the reason why i posted. |
https://www.nursinginpractice.com/covid-19/mythbuster-%E2%80%98covid-19-just-sea
TL:DR
· Covid-19 and flu share some similar symptoms. Flu symptoms usually present in a shorter time.
· Covid-19 is more likely to cause severe illness or death.
· Both viruses can be caught from others who have the illnesses. The viruses spread via droplets from the nose or mouth produced when a person coughs or exhales.
· Effective hand washing and suitable PPE can help reduce the spread of both viruses.
· Flu is a much older virus, and several effective antiviral treatments and vaccines are available. There are no treatments or vaccines yet available for Covid-19. | | | |
| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 15:44 - Apr 28 with 464 views | Bluesquid |
| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 15:39 - Apr 28 by manchego |
https://www.nursinginpractice.com/covid-19/mythbuster-%E2%80%98covid-19-just-sea
TL:DR
· Covid-19 and flu share some similar symptoms. Flu symptoms usually present in a shorter time.
· Covid-19 is more likely to cause severe illness or death.
· Both viruses can be caught from others who have the illnesses. The viruses spread via droplets from the nose or mouth produced when a person coughs or exhales.
· Effective hand washing and suitable PPE can help reduce the spread of both viruses.
· Flu is a much older virus, and several effective antiviral treatments and vaccines are available. There are no treatments or vaccines yet available for Covid-19. |
Yes and i agree with all of that, my post was in regard to the excess deaths in 1999/00 which certainly took me by surprise. | | | |
| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 15:46 - Apr 28 with 464 views | eireblue |
| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 15:28 - Apr 28 by Bluesquid |
It's not my "fact" though is it? It's from the ONS.
Because perhaps many are not aware just how dangerous the flu is and unaware just how many it kills.
I was pretty shocked tbh to see that very high levels of flu were seen in 1999/00 with 48,000 excess winter deaths and that is the reason why i posted. |
Hmmmm, maybe you and NotSure can team up and just do a daily thread.
Bluesquid: Here is something un-related to Covid, that I was previously ignorant about.
NotSure: Here is something related to Covid that I am currently ignorant about.
Then take it from there between you. People can jump in if interested. |  | | |
| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 15:47 - Apr 28 with 448 views | GlasgowBlue |
| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 14:46 - Apr 28 by Bluesquid |
We all know how this will end Stokie, you will fabricate something and then attack me based on your fabrication and the exchange will end with you posting something to me along the lines of - "You're disingenuous and pathetic."
Just look at this thread where i stated quite clearly "possible VAP and HAP" but that didn't stop you from making stuff up.
UK could be worst hit in Europe by Herbivore 12 Apr 2020 13:12In terms of Covid-19 fatalities: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52261859
Hard to see this as scaremongering given successive days of 900+ fatalities and a higher daily fatality rate on our worst day than on the worst days in China, Italy and Spain. Bear in mind that we looked on in horror at what was happening in those countries just a few weeks ago.
Considering it started to hit here later than in the rest of mainland Europe, in theory giving us time to prepare and mitigate, that's pretty scandalous. The inquest will come in some months' time but I struggle to see how anyone can think this has been handled competently.
No Stokie, i've been in too many exchanges with you to know that you don't play fair and often rely on fitting someone up in order to then attack them (sometimes i wonder if you are actually unaware that you are doing it).
lol and the amount of times you have to bring in other posters on the board to back you up is just insane and you've just gone and done it again, idk, and i don't think i'm the only poster on the board who has noticed it either. |
Who your lone upvoter is tells you all you need to know about the nonsense you are posting. |  |
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| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 15:50 - Apr 28 with 448 views | footers |
| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 15:47 - Apr 28 by GlasgowBlue |
Who your lone upvoter is tells you all you need to know about the nonsense you are posting. |
Might be an idea to stop poking callis on multiple threads, no matter your views on his recent posts. Just a thought. |  |
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| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 15:52 - Apr 28 with 435 views | Bluesquid |
| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 15:46 - Apr 28 by eireblue |
Hmmmm, maybe you and NotSure can team up and just do a daily thread.
Bluesquid: Here is something un-related to Covid, that I was previously ignorant about.
NotSure: Here is something related to Covid that I am currently ignorant about.
Then take it from there between you. People can jump in if interested. |
You're disputing the data presented by the Office Of National Statistics? | | | |
| You have to make this assumption really..... on 15:59 - Apr 28 with 413 views | NotSure |
| You have to make this assumption really..... on 11:51 - Apr 28 by Bloots |
….particularly given his username/avatar but it's really not a subject to be trolling about.
Surprised his "views", whether they are trolling or not, are allowed to remain really.
There's some very strange people about. |
I know my avatar can make people think I'm a troll but I'm perfectly serious.
I even quoted statistics from the ONS and people still think I'm trolling.
Disagreeing with someone's opinion (even if that is government advice) is allowed.
I agreed with the lockdown originally but, as referenced in the below article, coronaviruses are not detected in summer months. So why not release the lockdown now and have some freedom before the next lockdown.
https://jcm.asm.org/content/48/8/2940.abstract?utm_source=TrendMDJClinMicrobiol& |  | | |
| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 16:03 - Apr 28 with 396 views | GlasgowBlue |
| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 15:50 - Apr 28 by footers |
Might be an idea to stop poking callis on multiple threads, no matter your views on his recent posts. Just a thought. |
And perhaps Callis should stop up-voting posts that are having a pop at Stokie just because he's has his own personal beef with him. Just a thought.
Anyway, I'm getting back to stripping my staircase. Only popped on here for five minuters to see the same people having the same pops at posters. | |
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| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 16:03 - Apr 28 with 401 views | sparks |
| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 15:28 - Apr 28 by Bluesquid |
It's not my "fact" though is it? It's from the ONS.
Because perhaps many are not aware just how dangerous the flu is and unaware just how many it kills.
I was pretty shocked tbh to see that very high levels of flu were seen in 1999/00 with 48,000 excess winter deaths and that is the reason why i posted. |
The question, as you well know, is your purpose for raising it in the context of this thread- and the point you are thinly veiling behind it but wont be drawn on. Its pathetic and, given current circumstances, just obnoxious.
P1ss off. | |
| The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to the presence of those who think they've found it.
(Sir Terry Pratchett) | | Poll: | Is Fred drunk this morning? |
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| You have to make this assumption really..... on 16:04 - Apr 28 with 398 views | jeera |
| You have to make this assumption really..... on 15:59 - Apr 28 by NotSure |
I know my avatar can make people think I'm a troll but I'm perfectly serious.
I even quoted statistics from the ONS and people still think I'm trolling.
Disagreeing with someone's opinion (even if that is government advice) is allowed.
I agreed with the lockdown originally but, as referenced in the below article, coronaviruses are not detected in summer months. So why not release the lockdown now and have some freedom before the next lockdown.
https://jcm.asm.org/content/48/8/2940.abstract?utm_source=TrendMDJClinMicrobiol& |
1: That's 10 years old and not necessarily relevant to this particular Covid.
2: How on earth can this not be detected through this summer when it's rife right now?
"So why not release the lockdown now and have some freedom before the next lockdown."
Because you'll kill people? |  |
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| You have to make this assumption really..... on 16:06 - Apr 28 with 393 views | sparks |
| You have to make this assumption really..... on 15:59 - Apr 28 by NotSure |
I know my avatar can make people think I'm a troll but I'm perfectly serious.
I even quoted statistics from the ONS and people still think I'm trolling.
Disagreeing with someone's opinion (even if that is government advice) is allowed.
I agreed with the lockdown originally but, as referenced in the below article, coronaviruses are not detected in summer months. So why not release the lockdown now and have some freedom before the next lockdown.
https://jcm.asm.org/content/48/8/2940.abstract?utm_source=TrendMDJClinMicrobiol& |
You are either a troll (which is appallingly bad taste in the circumstances- people reading this board will be losing people close to them or will be genuinely affected).
Or you are genuinely ignorant and so proud of it, you will not even engage honestly and properly with the corrections and points that are put to you.
Either way, just fecking stop. | |
| The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to the presence of those who think they've found it.
(Sir Terry Pratchett) | | Poll: | Is Fred drunk this morning? |
| |
| You have to make this assumption really..... on 16:10 - Apr 28 with 386 views | NotSure |
| You have to make this assumption really..... on 16:04 - Apr 28 by jeera |
1: That's 10 years old and not necessarily relevant to this particular Covid.
2: How on earth can this not be detected through this summer when it's rife right now?
"So why not release the lockdown now and have some freedom before the next lockdown."
Because you'll kill people? |
1. You have proof that this strain of coronavirus will be different to all of the others.
2. Because it's spring and April.
And how do you know it will kill people?
We should certainly still support the old and vulnerable who want to isolate. | | | |
| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 16:12 - Apr 28 with 376 views | ElephantintheRoom |
| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 15:52 - Apr 28 by Bluesquid |
You're disputing the data presented by the Office Of National Statistics? |
I think anyone with a modicum of interest would question the data...it shows just how difficult it is to put a death down to covid as doctors in the community have been denied the ability to test and confirm ..therefore people die with it their medical opinion, not because of it....although the figures suggest thousands more have died because of it than officlly with it so to speak.
And these figures themselves are lagged. It can take weeks and weeks to certify a death...the real numbers are still much higher.
There is a second scandal bubbling along beneath these figures that the media will latch on to in due course...wheh the government panicked and emptied every hospital they condemned hundreds of thousands of unfortunates who usually fill hospitals to overflowing at the best of times to a months and years of worry, extra pain... and death. Something like 1.5 million appointments and operations have been cancelled already.... j cancer patients benefitting from early diagnosis and treatment (which we are hopeless at because of the low number of hospital doctors in this country) will now die prematurely.....it will take years to rectify... because of covid (and this government)
So yes... these figures are misleading - and alas still way too low. | |
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| You have to make this assumption really..... on 16:12 - Apr 28 with 376 views | jeera |
| You have to make this assumption really..... on 16:10 - Apr 28 by NotSure |
1. You have proof that this strain of coronavirus will be different to all of the others.
2. Because it's spring and April.
And how do you know it will kill people?
We should certainly still support the old and vulnerable who want to isolate. |
1. What are you talking about?
2. You think it will know the date and suddenly disappear then? The weather's been summer-like for a while.
How do I know it will kill people?
Are you some kind of idiot? | |
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| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 16:12 - Apr 28 with 373 views | lowhouseblue |
| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 15:52 - Apr 28 by Bluesquid |
You're disputing the data presented by the Office Of National Statistics? |
i'll dispute your interpretation of them. more people die during the winter for various reasons. excess winter deaths is the additional number of people dying from December to March relative to an average across the previous 4 months and the following 4 months. your data shows that each year that excess number varies form approx 20,000 to approx 50,000 in a very bad year. but that excess is over a 4 month period. so take the worst year in your sample which shows winter excess deaths as 50,000 over the 4 month winter period - i.e. 12,500 a month. (note, even in a good winter 5,000 more people die each month than in the rest of the year).
so the worst year in your data has nowhere near as bad a monthly excess death rate as we are seeing at present. the comparison doesn't hold. | |
| And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show |
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| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 16:12 - Apr 28 with 374 views | footers |
| ONS numbers are out, they're not good on 16:03 - Apr 28 by GlasgowBlue |
And perhaps Callis should stop up-voting posts that are having a pop at Stokie just because he's has his own personal beef with him. Just a thought.
Anyway, I'm getting back to stripping my staircase. Only popped on here for five minuters to see the same people having the same pops at posters. |
How grown-up of you. Enjoy your sandpapering. | |
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