| Maybe I'm thick 17:37 - May 6 with 5346 views | longtimefan |
.... but how can there be any sense in any relaxation of the lockdown when there seems to be no significant reduction in the daily new cases of infection. The rolling 7 day average is still around 5000 cases, not dissimilar to where it was on 9th April.
*The first part of question is rhetorical- I am! |  | | |  |
| Maybe I'm thick on 18:15 - May 6 with 823 views | SpruceMoose |
| Maybe I'm thick on 18:14 - May 6 by jeera |
Appreciate it. |
Look at you, showing off and upgrading from a simple 'thank you'! |  |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| Maybe I'm thick on 18:17 - May 6 with 818 views | jeera |
| Maybe I'm thick on 18:15 - May 6 by SpruceMoose |
Look at you, showing off and upgrading from a simple 'thank you'! |
Yeah, I'm actually starting to feel a bit offended. |  |
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| Maybe I'm thick on 18:17 - May 6 with 839 views | r2d2 |
| Maybe I'm thick on 18:08 - May 6 by BlueBadger |
Be fair, I suspect he struggles to understand a Dulux colour chart. |
I struggle with people who really have banged on and on for weeks, with a new assumption every few days on here. For the most part its the same few. On another note, l see the tin of spam is about again. |  | | |
| Maybe I'm thick on 18:18 - May 6 with 851 views | Trequartista |
On the 9th of April we were only testing 10,000 people per day, mainly in hospitals, now we're testing 70,000 per day so if new cases are going down, this may not be represented in the new cases detected going down. [Post edited 6 May 2020 18:20]
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| Maybe I'm thick on 18:20 - May 6 with 828 views | BlueBadger |
| Maybe I'm thick on 18:17 - May 6 by r2d2 |
I struggle with people who really have banged on and on for weeks, with a new assumption every few days on here. For the most part its the same few. On another note, l see the tin of spam is about again. |
Yeah, imagine being the sort of tedious bore with nothing to add but the same old meaningless carping and lac of insight.
#leftiebumfest |  |
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| Maybe I'm thick on 18:21 - May 6 with 812 views | jeera |
| Maybe I'm thick on 18:17 - May 6 by r2d2 |
I struggle with people who really have banged on and on for weeks, with a new assumption every few days on here. For the most part its the same few. On another note, l see the tin of spam is about again. |
The biggest problem here is that you only seem to comment on some posts to insult people.
Then you have the cheek to complain.
I don't get it - it doesn't make sense.
All posters have to do is be nice, it's not hard is it. | |
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| Maybe I'm thick on 18:28 - May 6 with 800 views | Pecker |
It would be madness to relax the lockdown. |  | | |
| Maybe I'm thick on 18:31 - May 6 with 789 views | footers |
| Maybe I'm thick on 18:28 - May 6 by Pecker |
It would be madness to relax the lockdown. |
Well said, mate. |  |
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| Maybe I'm thick on 18:39 - May 6 with 772 views | r2d2 |
| Maybe I'm thick on 18:20 - May 6 by BlueBadger |
Yeah, imagine being the sort of tedious bore with nothing to add but the same old meaningless carping and lac of insight.
#leftiebumfest |
I like the way your post is left up having a pop at me, yet mine is taken down having a pop at you. Strange that. | | | |
| Maybe I'm thick on 18:44 - May 6 with 754 views | SpruceMoose |
| Maybe I'm thick on 18:39 - May 6 by r2d2 |
I like the way your post is left up having a pop at me, yet mine is taken down having a pop at you. Strange that. |
It's almost as if the independent moderator thought you were the one being a jerk!
Ponder it. | |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| Maybe I'm thick on 18:45 - May 6 with 760 views | monytowbray |
| Maybe I'm thick on 18:17 - May 6 by r2d2 |
I struggle with people who really have banged on and on for weeks, with a new assumption every few days on here. For the most part its the same few. On another note, l see the tin of spam is about again. |
By “new assumptions” do you mean “More evidence that almost certainly proves what anyone with half a brain could figure out”? |  |
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| Maybe I'm thick on 18:48 - May 6 with 747 views | jeera |
| Maybe I'm thick on 18:45 - May 6 by monytowbray |
By “new assumptions” do you mean “More evidence that almost certainly proves what anyone with half a brain could figure out”? |
Bloomin' reading things.
Boo. | |
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| Maybe I'm thick on 19:06 - May 6 with 733 views | jaykay |
| Maybe I'm thick on 18:11 - May 6 by r2d2 |
We should have been stricter with the lockdown. People shouldnt have been out and about like they were. It hasnt helped the situation. B&Q opened up, everyone neeed a bag of nails, people queued around the block, that was ridiculous. Costa opened up everyone queued up for a blo0dy cup of coffee, absolutely ridiculous and quite sad if you cant make a cup of coffee at home. People in this country really dont understand priorities. |
they must do, they voted tory and brexit |  |
| forensic experts say footers and spruces fingerprints were not found at the scene after the weekends rows |
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| Maybe I'm thick on 19:07 - May 6 with 728 views | Ewan_Oozami |
| Maybe I'm thick on 18:08 - May 6 by BlueBadger |
Be fair, I suspect he struggles to understand a Dulux colour chart. |
Especially if the vertical axis is exponential.. |  |
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| Maybe I'm thick on 19:21 - May 6 with 727 views | pointofblue |
| Maybe I'm thick on 18:18 - May 6 by Trequartista |
On the 9th of April we were only testing 10,000 people per day, mainly in hospitals, now we're testing 70,000 per day so if new cases are going down, this may not be represented in the new cases detected going down. [Post edited 6 May 2020 18:20]
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This is exactly it. I think a (rare) sensible journalist asked whether there could be a percentage graph alongside the rest because of the tests going up, so we could make a comparison. I don’t think this has been done, possibly because the Government think people might breach lockdown further if it appears as though it’s under control.
To put it bluntly though, on 6th April we had 4143 positive cases off the back of 13,313 tests; today we had 6111 positive cases off the back of 57,006 tests. | |
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| Maybe I'm thick on 19:35 - May 6 with 696 views | Leaky |
| Maybe I'm thick on 17:59 - May 6 by monytowbray |
Boots glorious Booooots. |
WTF ? you been on the disco biscuits |  | | |
| Maybe I'm thick on 19:52 - May 6 with 677 views | gordon |
| Maybe I'm thick on 19:21 - May 6 by pointofblue |
This is exactly it. I think a (rare) sensible journalist asked whether there could be a percentage graph alongside the rest because of the tests going up, so we could make a comparison. I don’t think this has been done, possibly because the Government think people might breach lockdown further if it appears as though it’s under control.
To put it bluntly though, on 6th April we had 4143 positive cases off the back of 13,313 tests; today we had 6111 positive cases off the back of 57,006 tests. |
The difference is that now we're not interested in questions like how close we are to the peak, what's the rate of increase etc. And comparisons to the start of the epidemic aren't that useful now, either.
The question now is whether Matt H and our Deloitte testing set-up, SERCO call centres and Dom's mate's dodgy App are going to be able to suppress the virus to R < 1 from when we start to release lockdown.
On my judgement, letting the lockdown wane at 6,000 daily cases (whether that's most of the total, or a fraction thereof) is going to be a struggle for that lot. |  | | |
| Maybe I'm thick on 19:58 - May 6 with 661 views | gordon |
| Maybe I'm thick on 17:58 - May 6 by r2d2 |
Well, one thing is for sure there are plenty of experts on here. Before this l never knew we had so many scientists and professors with expert knowledge on all this on this site. Just shows what being shut up for 6 weeks turns some people into. Even the real experts would be shocked at the true knowledge of some Town fans on here, they are all wasted at their office desks on a daily basis it would seem. |
I presume your meta-analysis of TWTD scientific expertise has been submitted for peer review? Will look forward to reading it. | | | |
| Maybe I'm thick on 20:29 - May 6 with 636 views | TractorWood |
| Maybe I'm thick on 17:57 - May 6 by Leaky |
Probably media pressure. The government need to ignore the press they seem to be trying to take over the agenda. They started pressuring the government to increase testing, then it was care homes now its the death rate. At the end of the day, PPE as with other essential items was ordered on just in time deliveries just like the rest of the world. When the whole world decides they want it now supplies are going to stretched. Its the same with testing equipment. Plus we are a very densely populated country. |
Go to Tokyo or Singapore if you want densely populated. There are regions of dense population but the majority of the UK remains pretty rural. |  |
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| Maybe I'm thick on 20:34 - May 6 with 631 views | Trequartista |
| Maybe I'm thick on 18:28 - May 6 by Pecker |
It would be madness to relax the lockdown. |
It would be bad manners to relax the lockdown. | |
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| Maybe I'm thick on 20:42 - May 6 with 628 views | jeera |
| Maybe I'm thick on 20:34 - May 6 by Trequartista |
It would be bad manners to relax the lockdown. |
It can get to you though admittedly.
Everyday when i say, that i'm not gona take anymore.
I have to check myself and carry on. | |
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| Maybe I'm thick on 20:44 - May 6 with 628 views | stonojnr |
| Maybe I'm thick on 19:21 - May 6 by pointofblue |
This is exactly it. I think a (rare) sensible journalist asked whether there could be a percentage graph alongside the rest because of the tests going up, so we could make a comparison. I don’t think this has been done, possibly because the Government think people might breach lockdown further if it appears as though it’s under control.
To put it bluntly though, on 6th April we had 4143 positive cases off the back of 13,313 tests; today we had 6111 positive cases off the back of 57,006 tests. |
but that doesnt help as you dont know if the number of positive tests are because the positive tests are finding clusters, or not finding clusters, whether the overall number of tests is an even spread of all cases, truly random or focussed on those self referring more often because they believe they have it or simply are in a line of work that forces them to do it. Basically you dont know what you sample size is because you dont know the extent of data set yet.
theres a tenet in software design & testing about how measuring code quality by bug report numbers & testing numbers, can be a bad idea as you inevitably focus on the wrong areas (more tests/less bugs) and draw the wrong conclusions from the data (less bugs means good code,not you are just looking in the wrong place)
and turning it into a percentage just obfuscates it further as the numbers arent meaningfully comparable as the testing spreads into new areas, 10,000 tests in Ipswich is no way the same thing as 10,000 tests in London, and unfortunately humans are near pre conditioned to see patterns in things that arent there and like to correlate disparate things as causes.
so just take the 6th April number, as a number, and take todays number as a different number, and thats it, any proper statistical analysis of them and what they mean in relation to each other will probably take months or years maybe decades to truly understand what the full picture is or was by then. | | | |
| Maybe I'm thick on 21:42 - May 6 with 595 views | Guthrum |
The 5-day average on 9th April stretched back into the period when the rate was considerably increasing. The current one covers a period of slow decline, plus it includes care homes (which were not being tested/included in early April) and, as Treq says, between five and eight times the number of tests per day. |  |
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| Maybe I'm thick on 21:54 - May 6 with 578 views | Guthrum |
| Maybe I'm thick on 19:21 - May 6 by pointofblue |
This is exactly it. I think a (rare) sensible journalist asked whether there could be a percentage graph alongside the rest because of the tests going up, so we could make a comparison. I don’t think this has been done, possibly because the Government think people might breach lockdown further if it appears as though it’s under control.
To put it bluntly though, on 6th April we had 4143 positive cases off the back of 13,313 tests; today we had 6111 positive cases off the back of 57,006 tests. |
On 9th April, it was rising through 40.6% new cases from individuals teated on its way to a peak of 65.8% the following day. There was a dip, then a second peak (52.0%) on 13th April, then it quickly declined to a steady range of between 35% and and just over 40% for 10 days.
When testing numbers were really ramped up, there was a sharp drop in positive returns, to under 20%. 10.7% in the 24 hours up to 9am today, but 6.3% for the preceding two days, between 7.6% and 8.3% for the three before that. | |
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| Maybe I'm thick on 22:09 - May 6 with 572 views | grecko |
| Maybe I'm thick on 18:01 - May 6 by SpruceMoose |
You're right. There are plenty of knowledgeable posters on here, with plenty of expertise and insight. You could learn from them if you made a genuine attempt to read what they say and made fewer snidey remarks. |
Priceless! The King of snide gets snidey at someone being snidey. | | | |
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