| 55 deaths today 19:41 - Jun 8 with 15891 views | itfcjoe |
A much better number to hear.
With all the caveats of reporting etc. |  |
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| 55 deaths today on 13:01 - Jun 9 with 2576 views | gordon |
| 55 deaths today on 12:48 - Jun 9 by Bluesquid |
Now give this a big squeeze -
"The huge number of unexplained extra deaths in homes and care homes is extraordinary. When we look back . . . this rise in non-covid extra deaths outside the hospital is something I hope will be given really severe attention.”
One more time, that's NON-COVID EXTRA DEATHS. |
I'm pretty sure the research is pending on this and the language in that article is a bit presumptory.
COVID won't have caused all these excess deaths, but it would be very difficult to exclude COVID as a contributory factor in most cases.
If upon further investigation the pattern of excess deaths of unknown cause follows the pattern of deaths known to be associated with COVID, which I think it is likely largely to do, then COVID will be simplest explanation and therefore the most likely. |  | | |
| 55 deaths today on 13:02 - Jun 9 with 2569 views | Herbivore |
| 55 deaths today on 12:48 - Jun 9 by Bluesquid |
Now give this a big squeeze -
"The huge number of unexplained extra deaths in homes and care homes is extraordinary. When we look back . . . this rise in non-covid extra deaths outside the hospital is something I hope will be given really severe attention.”
One more time, that's NON-COVID EXTRA DEATHS. |
Sure, there will have been non Covid excess deaths because of lockdown. Nobody has said otherwise.
Have you looked at the source paper by the way? It's not especially thorough, in fact it's not really research in any meaningful sense. I'm hoping there's more to come from them. Essentially so far they've looked at there being 30k excess deaths and only 10k having Covid on the death certificate. There's no analysis of the cause of death in the other 20k cases. They acknowledge some might be undiagnosed Covid deaths and that some might have been saved had they gone to hospital, but they acknowledge they don't know.
You've taken the most headline grabbing line, that isn't well supported by the data, and chosen to run with it. The individual giving you that headline grabbing line ought to have been much more careful with his choice of words. [Post edited 9 Jun 2020 13:05]
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| 55 deaths today on 13:05 - Jun 9 with 2542 views | Bluesquid |
| 55 deaths today on 12:53 - Jun 9 by linhdi |
And non-covid deaths include undiagnosed deaths at home due to covid, plus many thousands of dementia people in care homes (who are unable to articulate their symptoms even under interrogation). That is per a highly useful ONS report last weekend. |
As you well know the ONS includes suspected Covid cases. |  | | |
| 55 deaths today on 13:08 - Jun 9 with 2531 views | Bluesquid |
| 55 deaths today on 13:02 - Jun 9 by Herbivore |
Sure, there will have been non Covid excess deaths because of lockdown. Nobody has said otherwise.
Have you looked at the source paper by the way? It's not especially thorough, in fact it's not really research in any meaningful sense. I'm hoping there's more to come from them. Essentially so far they've looked at there being 30k excess deaths and only 10k having Covid on the death certificate. There's no analysis of the cause of death in the other 20k cases. They acknowledge some might be undiagnosed Covid deaths and that some might have been saved had they gone to hospital, but they acknowledge they don't know.
You've taken the most headline grabbing line, that isn't well supported by the data, and chosen to run with it. The individual giving you that headline grabbing line ought to have been much more careful with his choice of words. [Post edited 9 Jun 2020 13:05]
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"Sure, there will have been non Covid excess deaths because of lockdown. Nobody has said otherwise."
You must have missed "huge" and "extraordinary". | | | |
| 55 deaths today on 13:10 - Jun 9 with 2522 views | Herbivore |
| 55 deaths today on 13:08 - Jun 9 by Bluesquid |
"Sure, there will have been non Covid excess deaths because of lockdown. Nobody has said otherwise."
You must have missed "huge" and "extraordinary". |
Can you point me to the data that supports that claim please? The data, not what one person said. | |
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| 55 deaths today on 13:12 - Jun 9 with 2514 views | Libero |
| 55 deaths today on 13:10 - Jun 9 by Herbivore |
Can you point me to the data that supports that claim please? The data, not what one person said. |
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| 55 deaths today on 13:21 - Jun 9 with 2494 views | Herbivore |
The article explicitly says deaths where Covid is recorded in the death certificate accounted for 10k of the 30k excess deaths. Covid not being on the death certificate does not mean that Covid was not either the cause of death or a contributing factor in all those other cases. | |
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| 55 deaths today on 13:26 - Jun 9 with 2476 views | Bluesquid |
| 55 deaths today on 13:21 - Jun 9 by Herbivore |
The article explicitly says deaths where Covid is recorded in the death certificate accounted for 10k of the 30k excess deaths. Covid not being on the death certificate does not mean that Covid was not either the cause of death or a contributing factor in all those other cases. |
Deaths that involved Covid were about 33 percent in that period meaning that deaths that didn't involve Covid made up the remainder.
Those deaths INVOLVED Covid which covers your description because involving does not necessarily mean that Covid was the main cause of death but that it was involved, so that's about 33 percent that involved Covid. [Post edited 9 Jun 2020 13:29]
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| 55 deaths today on 13:29 - Jun 9 with 2471 views | Herbivore |
| 55 deaths today on 13:26 - Jun 9 by Bluesquid |
Deaths that involved Covid were about 33 percent in that period meaning that deaths that didn't involve Covid made up the remainder.
Those deaths INVOLVED Covid which covers your description because involving does not necessarily mean that Covid was the main cause of death but that it was involved, so that's about 33 percent that involved Covid. [Post edited 9 Jun 2020 13:29]
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The article you cited talks about excess deaths. You are now using all deaths and posting different links. You need to make your mind up. You aren't presenting a very coherent argument here. | |
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| 55 deaths today on 13:32 - Jun 9 with 2460 views | StokieBlue |
| 55 deaths today on 12:52 - Jun 9 by Libero |
Essentially he's trying (and failing) to link data to his belief that the government are exaggerating the spread of and deadly nature of Covid-19. [Post edited 9 Jun 2020 12:52]
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It's a line he's been pushing for 3 months now.
SB |  |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| 55 deaths today on 13:33 - Jun 9 with 2455 views | Bluesquid |
| 55 deaths today on 13:29 - Jun 9 by Herbivore |
The article you cited talks about excess deaths. You are now using all deaths and posting different links. You need to make your mind up. You aren't presenting a very coherent argument here. |
Was the data link from the BMJ article that you requested, it's a shame that you have chosen to dismiss it. | | | |
| 55 deaths today on 13:35 - Jun 9 with 2449 views | Bluesquid |
| 55 deaths today on 13:32 - Jun 9 by StokieBlue |
It's a line he's been pushing for 3 months now.
SB |
nt [Post edited 9 Jun 2020 13:36]
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| 55 deaths today on 13:35 - Jun 9 with 2451 views | StokieBlue |
| 55 deaths today on 12:39 - Jun 9 by blueconscience |
True, But I only use MatPlotLib, Seaborn, Power BI and various other data analysis and reporting tools, so probably thinking too simplistically. |
The ability to open a maths package doesn't equate to the ability to be able to use it. It also doesn't correct for the bias of the modeller or the legitimacy of the data being fed to the model.
It looks like a rather pathetic attempt to push your own intelligence whilst belittling others.
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| 55 deaths today on 13:35 - Jun 9 with 2450 views | Herbivore |
| 55 deaths today on 13:33 - Jun 9 by Bluesquid |
Was the data link from the BMJ article that you requested, it's a shame that you have chosen to dismiss it. |
So are we talking about total deaths here or excess deaths? You're not being at all clear. Your initial link said only a third of excess deaths - those above the 5 year average - recorded Covid on the death certificate. You are now saying Covid is the cause of death in a third of deaths full stop. Which is it? Both can't be true. Either you're posting the wrong data or the article you initially cited has misinterpreted the data. Either way there's a real problem with the statistics you're putting forward here. | |
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| 55 deaths today on 13:38 - Jun 9 with 2444 views | StokieBlue |
| 55 deaths today on 13:35 - Jun 9 by Bluesquid |
nt [Post edited 9 Jun 2020 13:36]
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Excellent response.
You've been called out on this since day 1. You've used various lines of opaque reasoning to push your narrative (yes I said it, narrative) and always revert to a single statement when presented with differing and varied counter-evidence.
You're real talent though is to post something which clearly means X but allows you to roll back and say it meant Y whilst still everyone knowing you actually meant X.
It's a gift.
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| 55 deaths today on 13:40 - Jun 9 with 2437 views | Libero |
| 55 deaths today on 13:32 - Jun 9 by StokieBlue |
It's a line he's been pushing for 3 months now.
SB |
I've lost all patience with it, yesterday I was willing to give them the benefit of the doubt and run through how and why they'd formed their beliefs in the hope of finding middle ground or opening their minds somewhat, but not today.
It's just complete and utter b0llocks. [Post edited 9 Jun 2020 13:43]
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| 55 deaths today on 13:46 - Jun 9 with 2419 views | Bluesquid |
| 55 deaths today on 13:35 - Jun 9 by Herbivore |
So are we talking about total deaths here or excess deaths? You're not being at all clear. Your initial link said only a third of excess deaths - those above the 5 year average - recorded Covid on the death certificate. You are now saying Covid is the cause of death in a third of deaths full stop. Which is it? Both can't be true. Either you're posting the wrong data or the article you initially cited has misinterpreted the data. Either way there's a real problem with the statistics you're putting forward here. |
Excess deaths, 46k.
"However, between Weeks 13 and 18, 108,345 deaths were registered, which was 46,494 more than the five-year average." | | | |
| 55 deaths today on 13:47 - Jun 9 with 2416 views | Bluesquid |
| 55 deaths today on 13:38 - Jun 9 by StokieBlue |
Excellent response.
You've been called out on this since day 1. You've used various lines of opaque reasoning to push your narrative (yes I said it, narrative) and always revert to a single statement when presented with differing and varied counter-evidence.
You're real talent though is to post something which clearly means X but allows you to roll back and say it meant Y whilst still everyone knowing you actually meant X.
It's a gift.
SB |
Oh so you was referring to me, and i was just about to apologize too.
Stand down Office Dibble. | | | |
| 55 deaths today on 13:49 - Jun 9 with 2413 views | Herbivore |
| 55 deaths today on 13:46 - Jun 9 by Bluesquid |
Excess deaths, 46k.
"However, between Weeks 13 and 18, 108,345 deaths were registered, which was 46,494 more than the five-year average." |
The article you linked to initially said 30k excess deaths? Your figures are all over the place. [Post edited 9 Jun 2020 13:49]
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| 55 deaths today on 13:50 - Jun 9 with 2403 views | Bluesquid |
| 55 deaths today on 13:49 - Jun 9 by Herbivore |
The article you linked to initially said 30k excess deaths? Your figures are all over the place. [Post edited 9 Jun 2020 13:49]
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Referring to deaths in homes and care homes. | | | |
| 55 deaths today on 13:55 - Jun 9 with 2392 views | Herbivore |
| 55 deaths today on 13:50 - Jun 9 by Bluesquid |
Referring to deaths in homes and care homes. |
But is the figure of excess deaths 30k or 46k? And is Covid the cause in a third of the 30k figure or the 108k figure? You are using two different sets of figures referring to two different statistics. I think the problem here is that you're using data without really understanding it first. | |
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| 55 deaths today on 13:58 - Jun 9 with 2380 views | Bluesquid |
| 55 deaths today on 13:55 - Jun 9 by Herbivore |
But is the figure of excess deaths 30k or 46k? And is Covid the cause in a third of the 30k figure or the 108k figure? You are using two different sets of figures referring to two different statistics. I think the problem here is that you're using data without really understanding it first. |
The 46k figure is overall for that period, regarding the 30k figure for care homes it is stated quite clearly here -
"At a briefing hosted by the Science Media Centre on 12 May he explained that, over the past five weeks, care homes and other community settings had had to deal with a “staggering burden” of 30 000 more deaths than would normally be expected, as patients were moved out of hospitals that were anticipating high demand for beds." | | | |
| 55 deaths today on 14:00 - Jun 9 with 2375 views | Parky |
| 55 deaths today on 19:43 - Jun 8 by ElderGrizzly |
Weekend lag, but agree it is positive.
Experts are saying there are now around 9,400 new cases a day, which is over 5x the official Govt figure and an increase on last week. |
Let me be surprised you’re turning a positive post into a negative. | | | |
| 55 deaths today on 14:04 - Jun 9 with 2362 views | Herbivore |
| 55 deaths today on 13:58 - Jun 9 by Bluesquid |
The 46k figure is overall for that period, regarding the 30k figure for care homes it is stated quite clearly here -
"At a briefing hosted by the Science Media Centre on 12 May he explained that, over the past five weeks, care homes and other community settings had had to deal with a “staggering burden” of 30 000 more deaths than would normally be expected, as patients were moved out of hospitals that were anticipating high demand for beds." |
46k figure is overall what? You aren't making much sense here. I don't think you understand the data. You are using one set of data for excess deaths that doesn't tally up with another set of data you are using that refers to overall deaths.
Being precise matters here. Based on the latter statistics you've posted, if there are 46k excess deaths from a total of 108k deaths and a third of the overall deaths are from Covid then that means Covid accounts for around 36k of the 46k excess deaths, i.e. just over three quarters of them. Compare that with your earlier link which says there are 30k excess deaths and only 10k - just one third - are from Covid. Those figures don't tally up, in fact there's a massive discrepancy there. | |
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