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Fair enough, the 500,000 estimation was without a lockdown. But he also claimed Sweden would have 100,000 deaths by June without a lockdown and they are under 5,000.
Hope you are not too heart broken about being placed in the snob group on here. Maybe it was a little hasty on my part.
Pretty sure all those worst case estimates were with the assumption that the public didn't change their behaviour and their was no policy intervention. I'm also surprised that he (Ferguson) would make predictions regarding Swedish deaths, do you have a link?
I am not trying to be an expert, but I think (not trying to present it as a fact) it will disappear by late July.
I just look at the inflated numbers presented to us every day on the news and don’t see the original estimated deaths, or any of these spikes everyone keeps saying will happen.
Your last sentence is what I would expect from the forum snobs.
[Post edited 8 Jun 2020 20:56]
Mate, I’m not a “snob” I’m just taking the p1ss out of your baseless assumptions and odd insinuations.
I’ve had the virus, I’m 31 years old and play 2/3 games of football a week and it absolutely knocked the sh1t out of me. If you think the figures are exaggerated or that in some way this virus isn’t as deadly as it is then I suggest you construct a compelling argument and we can have a sensible discussion.
Just stating that you think something is going to happen on a date with no reason or rhyme behind it is worthy of p1ss taking, especially when you’ve got the cheek to question the authenticity of the views of experts and Scientists.
Mate, I’m not a “snob” I’m just taking the p1ss out of your baseless assumptions and odd insinuations.
I’ve had the virus, I’m 31 years old and play 2/3 games of football a week and it absolutely knocked the sh1t out of me. If you think the figures are exaggerated or that in some way this virus isn’t as deadly as it is then I suggest you construct a compelling argument and we can have a sensible discussion.
Just stating that you think something is going to happen on a date with no reason or rhyme behind it is worthy of p1ss taking, especially when you’ve got the cheek to question the authenticity of the views of experts and Scientists.
They are still adding deaths from April to the daily numbers, how about adding them to the chart on the dates they actually died?
I apologise for having a different opinion, and good to see you survived the virus.
I am not trying to be an expert, but I think (not trying to present it as a fact) it will disappear by late July.
I just look at the inflated numbers presented to us every day on the news and don’t see the original estimated deaths, or any of these spikes everyone keeps saying will happen.
Your last sentence is what I would expect from the forum snobs.
[Post edited 8 Jun 2020 20:56]
the prediction of 510,000 excess deaths over 24 months (think that's right) is disproved because we've had about 60,000 excess deaths in the first 3 months?
Not saying we will have 510,000 excess deaths - just curious as to how you've reached this conclusion.
There are reasons the two countries' rates are not comparable.
Also the treating of this as some competition is quite tasteless.
Yes well i'd say it's fair to compare Sweden to Belgium actually as both country's have a similar population size and a similar percentage of over 65's.
FULL lockdown Belgium with a 83.7 death rate nearly double that of Sweden with 47.1.
Yes well i'd say it's fair to compare Sweden to Belgium actually as both country's have a similar population size and a similar percentage of over 65's.
FULL lockdown Belgium with a 83.7 death rate nearly double that of Sweden with 47.1.
That's still too simplistic.
To make valid comparisons, even if you wanted to, that would involve looking more in depth than that.
Housing for example. Sweden apparently has a high number of singletons who live alone etc.
But for anyone to even try to claim that it's not more difficult to catch something from people you don't see, than to catch it from those you hang out with, should be obviously ridiculous to anyone.
To make valid comparisons, even if you wanted to, that would involve looking more in depth than that.
Housing for example. Sweden apparently has a high number of singletons who live alone etc.
But for anyone to even try to claim that it's not more difficult to catch something from people you don't see, than to catch it from those you hang out with, should be obviously ridiculous to anyone.
“ Lockdowns had a dramatic impact on the spread of coronavirus in Europe with strict controls on people’s movements preventing an estimated 3.1m deaths by the beginning of May, with 470,000 deaths averted in the UK alone, researchers say.
Outbreak modellers at Imperial College London said that lockdown slashed the average number of people that contagious individuals infected by 81% and lowered the reproduction number, R, of the epidemic below 1 in all countries they observed.
When R is less than 1 the epidemic is in decline because on average, each infected person transmits the infection to less than one other. As countries ease out of their lockdown, scientists are watching R closely: if it rises and remains above 1, the epidemic will grow exponentially.
The Imperial team pooled data on Covid-19 deaths from 11 European countries including the UK, Italy, France, Spain and Germany, and worked backwards to calculate the extent of transmission several weeks earlier, to account for the time lag between infections and deaths. Lockdown at the end of March reduced the reproductive number of the UK epidemic from 3.8 to 0.63, they calculate”
To make valid comparisons, even if you wanted to, that would involve looking more in depth than that.
Housing for example. Sweden apparently has a high number of singletons who live alone etc.
But for anyone to even try to claim that it's not more difficult to catch something from people you don't see, than to catch it from those you hang out with, should be obviously ridiculous to anyone.
And Sweden is 15 times larger than Belgium.
So not what you suggested at all.
The differences are quite clear there.
*If I put that in an edit it would go unnoticed. .
“ NHS England announced 115 new deaths of people who tested positive for Covid-19, bringing the total number of confirmed reported deaths in hospitals in England to 27,159.
Of the new deaths announced on Thursday, 24 had occurred on June 3, 49 on June 2 while nine patients who had test positive for Covid-19 on June 1.
The figures also show 25 of the new deaths took place in May, seven occurred in April, and the remaining one death took place on March 20”
“ Lockdowns had a dramatic impact on the spread of coronavirus in Europe with strict controls on people’s movements preventing an estimated 3.1m deaths by the beginning of May, with 470,000 deaths averted in the UK alone, researchers say.
Outbreak modellers at Imperial College London said that lockdown slashed the average number of people that contagious individuals infected by 81% and lowered the reproduction number, R, of the epidemic below 1 in all countries they observed.
When R is less than 1 the epidemic is in decline because on average, each infected person transmits the infection to less than one other. As countries ease out of their lockdown, scientists are watching R closely: if it rises and remains above 1, the epidemic will grow exponentially.
The Imperial team pooled data on Covid-19 deaths from 11 European countries including the UK, Italy, France, Spain and Germany, and worked backwards to calculate the extent of transmission several weeks earlier, to account for the time lag between infections and deaths. Lockdown at the end of March reduced the reproductive number of the UK epidemic from 3.8 to 0.63, they calculate”
[Post edited 8 Jun 2020 21:23]
As previously stated, it is my opinion that lockdown reduces the spread, and we locked down London and Midlands two weeks too late.
All I am saying is that despite Neil "200 million could die from bird flu" Ferguson and his Imperial College mates playing with their spreadsheets, there is no proof yet for the effect of lockdown, as no-one can yet explain the different death rates across different countries with different lockdown strategies.
To make valid comparisons, even if you wanted to, that would involve looking more in depth than that.
Housing for example. Sweden apparently has a high number of singletons who live alone etc.
But for anyone to even try to claim that it's not more difficult to catch something from people you don't see, than to catch it from those you hang out with, should be obviously ridiculous to anyone.
Well i'll leave you to ponder over this chart regarding Denmarks 9,500 Covid patients and perhaps it explains why the Danish Health Authority "continues to consider that Covid-19 cannot be described as a generally dangerous disease, as it does not have either a usually serious course or a high mortality rate".
Well i'll leave you to ponder over this chart regarding Denmarks 9,500 Covid patients and perhaps it explains why the Danish Health Authority "continues to consider that Covid-19 cannot be described as a generally dangerous disease, as it does not have either a usually serious course or a high mortality rate".
To make valid comparisons, even if you wanted to, that would involve looking more in depth than that.
Housing for example. Sweden apparently has a high number of singletons who live alone etc.
But for anyone to even try to claim that it's not more difficult to catch something from people you don't see, than to catch it from those you hang out with, should be obviously ridiculous to anyone.
I am in agreement that there are unknown variables to apply to each country before we can make any sense of the figures, but the rate is nearly double and i'm not convinced singletons living alone makes up that gap.
Also Sweden has a high urban population - 87% (compared to UK, not Belgium which is astronomical)
Belarus 3.19 deaths per million. And they are fighting coronavirus by drinking vodka.
Clearly they are undereporting deaths, but by 1800% ?
By drinking vodka and playing football but not in that order of course.
I'm still trying to get my head around this...178.
"The total number of reported deaths in London hospitals of patients who tested positive for COVID-19 is now 6,026. The total number of deaths where COVID-19 mentioned on the death certificate is 178."
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