| 55 deaths today 19:41 - Jun 8 with 15894 views | itfcjoe |
A much better number to hear.
With all the caveats of reporting etc. |  |
| |  |
| 55 deaths today on 21:51 - Jun 8 with 2091 views | Guthrum |
| 55 deaths today on 20:20 - Jun 8 by Bluesquid |
Now check this out and don't shoot the messenger, ok?
It's from gov.uk regarding stats for London.
"The total number of reported deaths in London hospitals of patients who tested positive for COVID-19 is now 6,026. The total number of deaths where COVID-19 mentioned on the death certificate is 178."
https://www.london.gov.uk/coronavirus/coronavirus-numbers-london |
Does that not mean where it's reported on the death certificate but the deceased had not been tested, i.e. in addition to the first figure, not a subset of it? |  |
| |
| 55 deaths today on 21:59 - Jun 8 with 2055 views | Bluesquid |
| 55 deaths today on 21:26 - Jun 8 by jeera |
And Sweden is 15 times larger than Belgium.
So not what you suggested at all.
The differences are quite clear there.
*If I put that in an edit it would go unnoticed. . |
Well Japan has about 10 times the population of Belgium but a similar population density and it also has a large elderly population.
Japan did not fully lock down and has to date had 916 deaths. |  | | |
| 55 deaths today on 21:59 - Jun 8 with 2070 views | Guthrum |
| 55 deaths today on 21:48 - Jun 8 by Trequartista |
I am in agreement that there are unknown variables to apply to each country before we can make any sense of the figures, but the rate is nearly double and i'm not convinced singletons living alone makes up that gap.
Also Sweden has a high urban population - 87% (compared to UK, not Belgium which is astronomical) [Post edited 8 Jun 2020 21:51]
|
There may be variations within the disease itself. We know there are a number of different strains and patterns of spread*. What if Germany, Scandinavia and Eastern Europe had a less lethal one than us, France, Spain and Italy? Would explain the difference in mortality rates without recourse to minor variations in population density.
* About two-thirds of the way down this article: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/26/us-coronavirus-patient-zero-100000 | |
| |
| 55 deaths today on 22:01 - Jun 8 with 2064 views | Trequartista |
| 55 deaths today on 21:50 - Jun 8 by Bluesquid |
By drinking vodka and playing football but not in that order of course.
I'm still trying to get my head around this...178.
"The total number of reported deaths in London hospitals of patients who tested positive for COVID-19 is now 6,026. The total number of deaths where COVID-19 mentioned on the death certificate is 178."
Surely that must be an error!?
https://www.london.gov.uk/coronavirus/coronavirus-numbers-london |
I am no expert but i would think it is complications from covid e.g. pneumonia. Someone can probably correct me on that. I don't think there is any conspiracy here, the excess deaths figure is big enough to know what was the essential cause. |  |
| |
| 55 deaths today on 22:03 - Jun 8 with 2058 views | Trequartista |
| 55 deaths today on 21:59 - Jun 8 by Guthrum |
There may be variations within the disease itself. We know there are a number of different strains and patterns of spread*. What if Germany, Scandinavia and Eastern Europe had a less lethal one than us, France, Spain and Italy? Would explain the difference in mortality rates without recourse to minor variations in population density.
* About two-thirds of the way down this article: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/26/us-coronavirus-patient-zero-100000 |
Well absoutely, we won't know the full picture for a long time. I think i read today that in Singapore they are reporting only 50% of infections are showing symptoms pointing to perhaps a milder strain there. | |
| |
| 55 deaths today on 22:08 - Jun 8 with 2034 views | Bluesquid |
| 55 deaths today on 21:51 - Jun 8 by Guthrum |
Does that not mean where it's reported on the death certificate but the deceased had not been tested, i.e. in addition to the first figure, not a subset of it? |
Possibly, would be good if some journos could question the government and request a clarification. | | | |
| 55 deaths today on 22:45 - Jun 8 with 1988 views | reusersfreekicks |
| 55 deaths today on 20:48 - Jun 8 by blueconscience |
I am not trying to be an expert, but I think (not trying to present it as a fact) it will disappear by late July.
I just look at the inflated numbers presented to us every day on the news and don’t see the original estimated deaths, or any of these spikes everyone keeps saying will happen.
Your last sentence is what I would expect from the forum snobs. [Post edited 8 Jun 2020 20:56]
|
Strewth you talk b0ll0x |  | | |
| 55 deaths today on 22:46 - Jun 8 with 1984 views | blueconscience |
See my earlier posts explaining it to Libero.
And I hope you are doing well this fine evening. [Post edited 8 Jun 2020 22:48]
|  |
| |
Login to get fewer ads
| 55 deaths today on 22:53 - Jun 8 with 1969 views | Swansea_Blue |
| 55 deaths today on 22:46 - Jun 8 by blueconscience |
See my earlier posts explaining it to Libero.
And I hope you are doing well this fine evening. [Post edited 8 Jun 2020 22:48]
|
"don’t see the original estimated deaths".
A good outcome was defined by the CMO as 20,000 deaths. |  |
| |
| 55 deaths today on 22:54 - Jun 8 with 1965 views | blueconscience |
| 55 deaths today on 22:53 - Jun 8 by Swansea_Blue |
"don’t see the original estimated deaths".
A good outcome was defined by the CMO as 20,000 deaths. |
I only posted the estimates that got a man fired.
Edit: lead to resigning in embarrassment, sorry [Post edited 8 Jun 2020 23:15]
| |
| |
| 55 deaths today on 22:56 - Jun 8 with 1959 views | jeera |
| 55 deaths today on 22:53 - Jun 8 by Swansea_Blue |
"don’t see the original estimated deaths".
A good outcome was defined by the CMO as 20,000 deaths. |
Exactly.
Taking into consideration of lockdown measures too.
Double that now so far.
This has not been a successful effort on any level. |  |
| |
| 55 deaths today on 23:26 - Jun 8 with 1906 views | Swansea_Blue |
| 55 deaths today on 22:54 - Jun 8 by blueconscience |
I only posted the estimates that got a man fired.
Edit: lead to resigning in embarrassment, sorry [Post edited 8 Jun 2020 23:15]
|
His resignation had nothing to do with his work. He does have a history of being pessimistic in his numbers though, and he’s faced criticisms from other scientists before. I’ve no idea if those criticisms are valid as I don’t know his model and wouldn’t understand it if I did.
Point is there’s a lot to it. He alone isn’t ‘the science’, yet it sounds like he was relied on (too much?). At the time the government did face criticism for relying too much on modelling and ignoring other relevant areas of specialisation (Cummings is a fan of modelling apparently).The guy hasn’t got a crystal ball though, he was providing estimates based on assumptions that may or may not come true. Those assumptions were what we knew at the time, which was very little.
Let’s see what happens. We may edge ever nearer his predictions if we have wave in the early winter coinciding with the flu season. That’s what they’re worried about. | |
| |
| 55 deaths today on 00:02 - Jun 9 with 1884 views | jeera |
| 55 deaths today on 21:59 - Jun 8 by Bluesquid |
Well Japan has about 10 times the population of Belgium but a similar population density and it also has a large elderly population.
Japan did not fully lock down and has to date had 916 deaths. |
Right, so you're dropping Sweden now and going with Japan.
You're going to work your way around the world trying to make some point.
They had their own approach and implemented some measures early on. There are all sorts of cultural possibilities at play too; possibly individual discipline being a key factor.
The point you repeatedly miss is the one about here, the UK.
We have lost over 40,000 human beings. Without the measures that were taken, many say too late as it was, that number would have been horrifically higher.
I repeat. To suggest that uninfected people are as likely to catch something by keeping away from infected as they would if they mixed with them is too stupid to reason with.
I don't know why some nations appear to have 'got off' more lightly than others, but I will say that is something to pleased about.
I thought India might be in serious bother but so far it's not as bad as feared - so far.
That is to be celebrated and not to be used as some point scoring exercise.
I don't want to risk more people lives to make some point.
You've pushed the same narrative all along and it makes no decent sense. What's to be gained by wishing more people had mixed in this country? No good would have come from that. Not if you give a sh1t anyway.
Edit: to add to that, maybe Japan would have saved more if they'd locked down for a while too, same goes for Sweden. [Post edited 9 Jun 2020 0:04]
| |
| |
| 55 deaths today on 00:03 - Jun 9 with 1875 views | Bluesquid |
| 55 deaths today on 23:26 - Jun 8 by Swansea_Blue |
His resignation had nothing to do with his work. He does have a history of being pessimistic in his numbers though, and he’s faced criticisms from other scientists before. I’ve no idea if those criticisms are valid as I don’t know his model and wouldn’t understand it if I did.
Point is there’s a lot to it. He alone isn’t ‘the science’, yet it sounds like he was relied on (too much?). At the time the government did face criticism for relying too much on modelling and ignoring other relevant areas of specialisation (Cummings is a fan of modelling apparently).The guy hasn’t got a crystal ball though, he was providing estimates based on assumptions that may or may not come true. Those assumptions were what we knew at the time, which was very little.
Let’s see what happens. We may edge ever nearer his predictions if we have wave in the early winter coinciding with the flu season. That’s what they’re worried about. |
"if we have wave in the early winter coinciding with the flu season. That’s what they’re worried about."
So you don't think we'll have a wave between now and then (winter as you stated)?
I thought they we're all worried about the second wave!?
Has that somehow now disappeared then?
Seems mighty odd considering thousands have been flouting the regulations for weeks plus the demos and then suddenly it goes rather quiet on the Covid front only for it to pop up again in the winter. | | | |
| 55 deaths today on 00:22 - Jun 9 with 1864 views | Bluesquid |
| 55 deaths today on 00:02 - Jun 9 by jeera |
Right, so you're dropping Sweden now and going with Japan.
You're going to work your way around the world trying to make some point.
They had their own approach and implemented some measures early on. There are all sorts of cultural possibilities at play too; possibly individual discipline being a key factor.
The point you repeatedly miss is the one about here, the UK.
We have lost over 40,000 human beings. Without the measures that were taken, many say too late as it was, that number would have been horrifically higher.
I repeat. To suggest that uninfected people are as likely to catch something by keeping away from infected as they would if they mixed with them is too stupid to reason with.
I don't know why some nations appear to have 'got off' more lightly than others, but I will say that is something to pleased about.
I thought India might be in serious bother but so far it's not as bad as feared - so far.
That is to be celebrated and not to be used as some point scoring exercise.
I don't want to risk more people lives to make some point.
You've pushed the same narrative all along and it makes no decent sense. What's to be gained by wishing more people had mixed in this country? No good would have come from that. Not if you give a sh1t anyway.
Edit: to add to that, maybe Japan would have saved more if they'd locked down for a while too, same goes for Sweden. [Post edited 9 Jun 2020 0:04]
|
"They had their own approach and implemented some measures early on. There are all sorts of cultural possibilities at play too; possibly individual discipline being a key factor."
Well Japan did not enforce a shutdown or social distancing but i acknowledge your point re individual discipline which may have played a decisive part.
For a population of over 125 million similar in population density to Belgium and with their current count at 916 i do feel that we can learn much from their approach and actions. | | | |
| 55 deaths today on 07:34 - Jun 9 with 1801 views | ElderGrizzly |
| 55 deaths today on 00:22 - Jun 9 by Bluesquid |
"They had their own approach and implemented some measures early on. There are all sorts of cultural possibilities at play too; possibly individual discipline being a key factor."
Well Japan did not enforce a shutdown or social distancing but i acknowledge your point re individual discipline which may have played a decisive part.
For a population of over 125 million similar in population density to Belgium and with their current count at 916 i do feel that we can learn much from their approach and actions. |
Japan have had various rolling ‘lockdowns’, as some of my team are affected who live there. Managed through various States of Emergency in regions and loads of tracking and tracing
Culture does play a part in terms of conforming, but they also stopped a lot of unnecessary travel very early on too. Especially air travel. [Post edited 9 Jun 2020 7:38]
|  | | |
| 55 deaths today on 07:44 - Jun 9 with 1791 views | Herbivore |
| 55 deaths today on 21:51 - Jun 8 by Guthrum |
Does that not mean where it's reported on the death certificate but the deceased had not been tested, i.e. in addition to the first figure, not a subset of it? |
It's pretty clear they are in addition to the first group. It couldn't be much clearer in fact. What is also clear is how people seek to wilfully misinterpret and misrepresent evidence, or perhaps it's not wilful and they're just a bit thick. Having read the whole thread I think it's probably the latter, certainly in relation to a couple of the more vocal posters. The state of it. |  |
| |
| 55 deaths today on 09:34 - Jun 9 with 1724 views | Bluesquid |
| 55 deaths today on 07:44 - Jun 9 by Herbivore |
It's pretty clear they are in addition to the first group. It couldn't be much clearer in fact. What is also clear is how people seek to wilfully misinterpret and misrepresent evidence, or perhaps it's not wilful and they're just a bit thick. Having read the whole thread I think it's probably the latter, certainly in relation to a couple of the more vocal posters. The state of it. |
Yes the state of it. Just out of interest then what do you make of the statement made by the Danish Health Authority?
The authority's opinion that Covid-19 was not a sufficiently dangerous disease to permit the government to impose compulsory interventions on the public under Denmark's epidemic law.
"The Danish Health Authority continues to consider that covid-19 cannot be described as a generally dangerous disease, as it does not have either a usually serious course or a high mortality rate,".
https://www.thelocal.dk/20200529/leaked-emails-show-how-denmarks-pm-steam-roller | | | |
| 55 deaths today on 10:00 - Jun 9 with 1698 views | Herbivore |
| 55 deaths today on 09:34 - Jun 9 by Bluesquid |
Yes the state of it. Just out of interest then what do you make of the statement made by the Danish Health Authority?
The authority's opinion that Covid-19 was not a sufficiently dangerous disease to permit the government to impose compulsory interventions on the public under Denmark's epidemic law.
"The Danish Health Authority continues to consider that covid-19 cannot be described as a generally dangerous disease, as it does not have either a usually serious course or a high mortality rate,".
https://www.thelocal.dk/20200529/leaked-emails-show-how-denmarks-pm-steam-roller |
I don't really have an opinion on it either way. I would say, though, that 60k excess deaths in the UK looks pretty serious to me. [Post edited 9 Jun 2020 10:00]
| |
| |
| 55 deaths today on 10:10 - Jun 9 with 1697 views | Bluesquid |
| 55 deaths today on 10:00 - Jun 9 by Herbivore |
I don't really have an opinion on it either way. I would say, though, that 60k excess deaths in the UK looks pretty serious to me. [Post edited 9 Jun 2020 10:00]
|
Yep it's serious alright.
"Covid-19 only accounts for 10,000 of the 30,000 excess deaths"
"A new report published in the British Medical Journal titled Covid-19: “Staggering number” of extra deaths in community is not explained by covid-19″ has suggested that quarantine measures in the United Kingdom as a result of the new coronavirus may have already killed more UK seniors than the coronavirus has during the months of April and May."
"According to the data, Covid-19 only accounts for 10,000 of the 30,000 excess deaths that have been recorded in senior care facilities during the height of the pandemic. The article suggests and also quotes British Health officials stating that these unexplained deaths may have occurred because Quarantine measures have prevented seniors from accessing the health care that they need."
https://www.collective-evolution.com/2020/05/19/new-report-suggests-quarantine-m | | | |
| 55 deaths today on 10:21 - Jun 9 with 1680 views | StokieBlue |
| 55 deaths today on 20:50 - Jun 8 by Trequartista |
UK - Lockdown - 528 deaths per million,
Sweden - No Lockdown - 455 deaths per million.
No proof lockdown makes any difference yet, and I'm saying that as someone who believes it was correct. |
Study today saying lockdown may have saved up to 3m lives in Europe:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/coronavirus-europe-lockdowns-thr
This is the key result which shows why lockdown is important:
“In the absence of policy actions, we estimate that early infections of Covid-19 exhibit exponential growth rates of roughly 38% per day.”
SB |  |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
| |
| 55 deaths today on 10:24 - Jun 9 with 1669 views | Libero |
| 55 deaths today on 21:31 - Jun 8 by blueconscience |
For example, read this report for the numbers from June 4th.
https://www.itv.com/news/2020-06-04/coronavirus-deaths-thursday-4-june/
Extract below;
“ NHS England announced 115 new deaths of people who tested positive for Covid-19, bringing the total number of confirmed reported deaths in hospitals in England to 27,159.
Of the new deaths announced on Thursday, 24 had occurred on June 3, 49 on June 2 while nine patients who had test positive for Covid-19 on June 1.
The figures also show 25 of the new deaths took place in May, seven occurred in April, and the remaining one death took place on March 20” |
I'm still waiting for something to accurately illustrate your claim.
It's coming across like you don't really understand any of the data you're reading outside of isolation, yet you're splicing it here there and everywhere, taking 4 + 4 and getting 9. |  | | |
| 55 deaths today on 10:26 - Jun 9 with 1665 views | Libero |
I've tried giving him the benefit of the doubt but I've asked multiple times for him to justify his claim and errrrrr, he hasn't. | | | |
| 55 deaths today on 10:27 - Jun 9 with 1658 views | Libero |
| 55 deaths today on 07:44 - Jun 9 by Herbivore |
It's pretty clear they are in addition to the first group. It couldn't be much clearer in fact. What is also clear is how people seek to wilfully misinterpret and misrepresent evidence, or perhaps it's not wilful and they're just a bit thick. Having read the whole thread I think it's probably the latter, certainly in relation to a couple of the more vocal posters. The state of it. |
Essentially, this. | | | |
| |
By continuing to use the site, you agree to our use of cookies and to abide by our Terms and Conditions.
