| Can't be long before we follow suit here in England. on 23:49 - Oct 7 with 1713 views | StokieBlue |
| Can't be long before we follow suit here in England. on 23:47 - Oct 7 by pointofblue |
Though it doesn’t help when medical experts are turning around and saying “shield the vulnerable, let everyone else go” - it’s muddying the waters, confusing people and making it harder to implement any kind of strategy whatsoever (if we had one to start with). If and when the government try to tighten restrictions some will push back harder and now have expert advice to back them up. [Post edited 7 Oct 2020 23:49]
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A minority of medical experts are saying that. The vast majority are in favour of lockdowns.
I agree it doesn't make it easy though.
SB |  |
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| Can't be long before we follow suit here in England. on 23:56 - Oct 7 with 1711 views | pointofblue |
| Can't be long before we follow suit here in England. on 23:49 - Oct 7 by StokieBlue |
A minority of medical experts are saying that. The vast majority are in favour of lockdowns.
I agree it doesn't make it easy though.
SB |
From a mental health angle people are going to cling to any chink of light and hope. The experts who are advocating a shield and release approach are offering this and will have many flocking around their words than the warnings from Whitty and Vallance. Whilst it may be considered selfish, people are struggling to cope at the worse possible time and it’s unfortunately human nature to lash out - especially if no one in their own social circle has caught it.
This does sound blunt but I remember reading once about nature’s resources and a natural leveller if there’s a case of over-population - war, famine, drought or disease. Mother Nature isn’t going to let us off the hook that easily with this and it will be human nature which causes the damage. |  |
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| Can't be long before we follow suit here in England. on 00:16 - Oct 8 with 1699 views | pointofblue |
Just to emphasise the issue the government has, here’s an extract of tomorrow’s front pages:
Telegraph - Herd immunity ‘could have saved more lives than social distancing’
The Guardian - Four in five with Covid ‘show no symptoms’
Daily Mail - Major study reveals Covid rules may INCREASE deaths + 8 in 10 with virus have no symptoms + Tighter measures have NOT helped in 19 of 20 northern towns
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-54458296
This being spoon fed on a daily basis, people will just forget about the restrictions and go ahead firstly because they want to and secondly because they don’t feel they’re doing any harm - quite the contrary. | |
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| Can't be long before we follow suit here in England. on 00:54 - Oct 8 with 1681 views | JDB23 |
| Can't be long before we follow suit here in England. on 00:16 - Oct 8 by pointofblue |
Just to emphasise the issue the government has, here’s an extract of tomorrow’s front pages:
Telegraph - Herd immunity ‘could have saved more lives than social distancing’
The Guardian - Four in five with Covid ‘show no symptoms’
Daily Mail - Major study reveals Covid rules may INCREASE deaths + 8 in 10 with virus have no symptoms + Tighter measures have NOT helped in 19 of 20 northern towns
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-54458296
This being spoon fed on a daily basis, people will just forget about the restrictions and go ahead firstly because they want to and secondly because they don’t feel they’re doing any harm - quite the contrary. |
XR need to do their thing again. | | | |
| Can't be long before we follow suit here in England. on 01:00 - Oct 8 with 1680 views | ArnoldMoorhen |
| Can't be long before we follow suit here in England. on 23:56 - Oct 7 by pointofblue |
From a mental health angle people are going to cling to any chink of light and hope. The experts who are advocating a shield and release approach are offering this and will have many flocking around their words than the warnings from Whitty and Vallance. Whilst it may be considered selfish, people are struggling to cope at the worse possible time and it’s unfortunately human nature to lash out - especially if no one in their own social circle has caught it.
This does sound blunt but I remember reading once about nature’s resources and a natural leveller if there’s a case of over-population - war, famine, drought or disease. Mother Nature isn’t going to let us off the hook that easily with this and it will be human nature which causes the damage. |
Re your last paragraph: it was an idea put forward by the 18/19th century economist Thomas Malthus.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Robert_Malthus | | | |
| Can't be long before we follow suit here in England. on 01:21 - Oct 8 with 1671 views | pointofblue |
Thank you for that - couldn’t recall where I read it. | |
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| Can't be long before we follow suit here in England. on 03:07 - Oct 8 with 1658 views | jeera |
| Can't be long before we follow suit here in England. on 23:47 - Oct 7 by pointofblue |
Though it doesn’t help when medical experts are turning around and saying “shield the vulnerable, let everyone else go” - it’s muddying the waters, confusing people and making it harder to implement any kind of strategy whatsoever (if we had one to start with). If and when the government try to tighten restrictions some will push back harder and now have expert advice to back them up. [Post edited 7 Oct 2020 23:49]
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I started to read about that earlier on then saw that amongst the support for anti-lockdown were TV celebrity doctors.
That idiot Dr Hilary was responsible for spreading ridiculous false info on breakfast TV early in the outbreak by telling the viewers to wash it [the virus] away with salt water and garlic or something. How embarrassing that he had to then tweet an apology a few days after.
He should have been sacked, the prat.
*Hilary wasn't mentioned in the article I saw yesterday, just to be clear. |  |
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| Can't be long before we follow suit here in England. on 08:15 - Oct 8 with 1586 views | Herbivore |
| Can't be long before we follow suit here in England. on 00:16 - Oct 8 by pointofblue |
Just to emphasise the issue the government has, here’s an extract of tomorrow’s front pages:
Telegraph - Herd immunity ‘could have saved more lives than social distancing’
The Guardian - Four in five with Covid ‘show no symptoms’
Daily Mail - Major study reveals Covid rules may INCREASE deaths + 8 in 10 with virus have no symptoms + Tighter measures have NOT helped in 19 of 20 northern towns
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-54458296
This being spoon fed on a daily basis, people will just forget about the restrictions and go ahead firstly because they want to and secondly because they don’t feel they’re doing any harm - quite the contrary. |
This is why ultimately we'll end up with more punitive measures, because too many people won't willingly follow lighter restrictions. |  |
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| Can't be long before we follow suit here in England. on 09:13 - Oct 8 with 1567 views | StokieBlue |
Has it not been proven to be incorrect though? The human population has increased eight-fold since he came up with his hypothesis and it hasn't really transpired as the predicted.
Human intelligence, for better or worse, allows us to find away around these rules.
SB | |
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| Can't be long before we follow suit here in England. on 09:14 - Oct 8 with 1565 views | StokieBlue |
| Can't be long before we follow suit here in England. on 00:16 - Oct 8 by pointofblue |
Just to emphasise the issue the government has, here’s an extract of tomorrow’s front pages:
Telegraph - Herd immunity ‘could have saved more lives than social distancing’
The Guardian - Four in five with Covid ‘show no symptoms’
Daily Mail - Major study reveals Covid rules may INCREASE deaths + 8 in 10 with virus have no symptoms + Tighter measures have NOT helped in 19 of 20 northern towns
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-54458296
This being spoon fed on a daily basis, people will just forget about the restrictions and go ahead firstly because they want to and secondly because they don’t feel they’re doing any harm - quite the contrary. |
Pretty awful from the press there, no context to those headlines.
Isn't that solved by actually applying the fines which at the moment seem to be a last resort?
If the fine was 500 or 1000 for a first offence, like it was in Melbourne, then people would soon follow the rules. It's not what I want to happen but it seems one of the few viable choices remaining.
SB | |
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| Can't be long before we follow suit here in England. on 09:30 - Oct 8 with 1546 views | ArnieM |
| Can't be long before we follow suit here in England. on 15:19 - Oct 7 by Herbivore |
Moved up here at the wrong time! |
You’ve left Norwich then Herb ? |  |
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| Can't be long before we follow suit here in England. on 10:44 - Oct 8 with 1518 views | bluelagos |
| Can't be long before we follow suit here in England. on 09:13 - Oct 8 by StokieBlue |
Has it not been proven to be incorrect though? The human population has increased eight-fold since he came up with his hypothesis and it hasn't really transpired as the predicted.
Human intelligence, for better or worse, allows us to find away around these rules.
SB |
Studied Malthus at our first year at Uni. His theory is as simple (from what I recall) as population growth is exponential, our ability to increase food follows linear growth.
So unfair to say his theory is incorrect. What has happened is that for years we had famines when we were unable to feed the growing population. More recently we have continued to expand our food production, but population growth is much slower than previously - hence fewer famines.
So if we were to once again (unlikely given birth control) grow the population at previous growth rates, we'd soon be in the position where lack of food was once again a limiting factor in population growth.
Only taken 30 years for that nugget to be of use! |  |
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| Can't be long before we follow suit here in England. on 11:07 - Oct 8 with 1508 views | StokieBlue |
| Can't be long before we follow suit here in England. on 10:44 - Oct 8 by bluelagos |
Studied Malthus at our first year at Uni. His theory is as simple (from what I recall) as population growth is exponential, our ability to increase food follows linear growth.
So unfair to say his theory is incorrect. What has happened is that for years we had famines when we were unable to feed the growing population. More recently we have continued to expand our food production, but population growth is much slower than previously - hence fewer famines.
So if we were to once again (unlikely given birth control) grow the population at previous growth rates, we'd soon be in the position where lack of food was once again a limiting factor in population growth.
Only taken 30 years for that nugget to be of use! |
Interesting, thanks.
So in only holds true in the case where you allow uncontrolled growth of both variables.
As per my last answer, humans have taken themselves out of that equation as they can now control both variables so it's not as applicable now as it may have been in the 18th century.
Certainly an interesting discussion although I don't think it fits in with the context of C19 that the original poster was using which seemed more like an anthropomorphised Gaia theory.
SB | |
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| Can't be long before we follow suit here in England. on 11:54 - Oct 8 with 1494 views | Herbivore |
| Can't be long before we follow suit here in England. on 09:30 - Oct 8 by ArnieM |
You’ve left Norwich then Herb ? |
Yes mate, North of the border now. | |
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| Can't be long before we follow suit here in England. on 12:46 - Oct 8 with 1473 views | bluelagos |
| Can't be long before we follow suit here in England. on 11:07 - Oct 8 by StokieBlue |
Interesting, thanks.
So in only holds true in the case where you allow uncontrolled growth of both variables.
As per my last answer, humans have taken themselves out of that equation as they can now control both variables so it's not as applicable now as it may have been in the 18th century.
Certainly an interesting discussion although I don't think it fits in with the context of C19 that the original poster was using which seemed more like an anthropomorphised Gaia theory.
SB |
Had to look up Gaia theory!
The discussion point at Uni was that Malthus was correct - just that what has changed is the introduction of birth control - thus the rate of exponential growth is far lower than before. That population growth still follows an exponential model, just that the growth factor is far lower than previously.
The main driver for lower population growth is basically down to women working (rather than being baby machines) which is largely driven by children no longer working. In Victorian times in the UK kids were an economic asset - you knocked out 10 kids and they could provide for you. Once they became an economic liability (You have to feed them but they can't work) the whole dynamic changes.
Still see it in the developing world and one of the drivers to reducing population growth is ensuring kids go to school.
*All 30 years old so theory's may have moved on since. | |
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| Can't be long before we follow suit here in England. on 16:59 - Oct 8 with 1449 views | giant_stow |
Government Sage adviser calls for immediate 'circuit breaker' lockdown: 'I would rather we took the pain right now' :
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/health/sage-adviser-immediate-circuit-breaker-lo
"Prof Edmunds, dubbed the “Crown prince of modelling” by webinar host Professor Sir Simon Wessely, said it was “unquestionably” the decision of the UK to delay going into lockdown until March 23 that caused so many deaths in the pandemic’s first wave.
“That is unquestionably the primary reason why we had so many deaths, unfortunately,” he said. “I think we need to take action rapidly to avoid making the same mistake.
“I really want the Government to act decisively now, rather than waiting and being bounced into acting sometime later.”" |  |
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| Can't be long before we follow suit here in England. on 17:01 - Oct 8 with 1441 views | StokieBlue |
| Can't be long before we follow suit here in England. on 16:59 - Oct 8 by giant_stow |
Government Sage adviser calls for immediate 'circuit breaker' lockdown: 'I would rather we took the pain right now' :
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/health/sage-adviser-immediate-circuit-breaker-lo
"Prof Edmunds, dubbed the “Crown prince of modelling” by webinar host Professor Sir Simon Wessely, said it was “unquestionably” the decision of the UK to delay going into lockdown until March 23 that caused so many deaths in the pandemic’s first wave.
“That is unquestionably the primary reason why we had so many deaths, unfortunately,” he said. “I think we need to take action rapidly to avoid making the same mistake.
“I really want the Government to act decisively now, rather than waiting and being bounced into acting sometime later.”" |
That means lockdown but with schools open right?
SB | |
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| Can't be long before we follow suit here in England. on 17:08 - Oct 8 with 1440 views | SpruceMoose |
| Can't be long before we follow suit here in England. on 17:01 - Oct 8 by StokieBlue |
That means lockdown but with schools open right?
SB |
Not sure that would be a lockdown at all.
Coincidently, schools in my neighbourhood all closed immediately today. Every school has gone full remote.
People not doing the right thing be fooking it up for everyone. |  |
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"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| Can't be long before we follow suit here in England. on 19:09 - Oct 8 with 1414 views | giant_stow |
| Can't be long before we follow suit here in England. on 17:08 - Oct 8 by SpruceMoose |
Not sure that would be a lockdown at all.
Coincidently, schools in my neighbourhood all closed immediately today. Every school has gone full remote.
People not doing the right thing be fooking it up for everyone. |
Not sure Stokie.
Spruce, know what you mean: hardly any parent wears a mask at my son's school at pickup / drop off, which especially wierd as a couple of hundred people have to crowd into a tiny ally way while we wait. Bizarre really. | |
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| Can't be long before we follow suit here in England. on 19:15 - Oct 8 with 1406 views | ArnoldMoorhen |
| Can't be long before we follow suit here in England. on 09:13 - Oct 8 by StokieBlue |
Has it not been proven to be incorrect though? The human population has increased eight-fold since he came up with his hypothesis and it hasn't really transpired as the predicted.
Human intelligence, for better or worse, allows us to find away around these rules.
SB |
Not just incorrect, but most subsequent generations have slammed him as appallingly amoral. | | | |
| Can't be long before we follow suit here in England. on 19:30 - Oct 8 with 1397 views | ArnoldMoorhen |
| Can't be long before we follow suit here in England. on 11:07 - Oct 8 by StokieBlue |
Interesting, thanks.
So in only holds true in the case where you allow uncontrolled growth of both variables.
As per my last answer, humans have taken themselves out of that equation as they can now control both variables so it's not as applicable now as it may have been in the 18th century.
Certainly an interesting discussion although I don't think it fits in with the context of C19 that the original poster was using which seemed more like an anthropomorphised Gaia theory.
SB |
Lovelock's Gaia theory is pretty much anthropomorphised/mysticised, I would argue intentionally.
The key difference with Malthus is that Malthus is being purely utilitarian (he would argue "objectively distanced") and sees humans as distinct from the "system" of earth's resources.
Lovelock sees humans as only one branch of the tree of life, and the overall "life force" of our planet (the sum of all the organisms on earth) as being greater than humankind. It's very easy to anthropomorphise "it" (he gives "it" the name "Gaia") but the scientific basis is simply that humankind lives in a relatively closed system which has allowed humankind to flourish. If humankind alters that system beyond certain key parameters then humankind will no longer flourish.
To any millennial this will elicit a "Durr? Yeah!" but it was a paradigm shift in viewing our relationship to the world's resources, which big business (aided by science) had, up to that point, seen as effectively infinitely plunderable. This mentality still pervades many corporate cultures (and Government decision-making: see Pence last night re fracking) today. | | | |
| Can't be long before we follow suit here in England. on 19:32 - Oct 8 with 1395 views | ArnoldMoorhen |
| Can't be long before we follow suit here in England. on 19:09 - Oct 8 by giant_stow |
Not sure Stokie.
Spruce, know what you mean: hardly any parent wears a mask at my son's school at pickup / drop off, which especially wierd as a couple of hundred people have to crowd into a tiny ally way while we wait. Bizarre really. |
Yeah, but in Norfolk it's confusing as all one family bubble, innit? | | | |
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