| What's the TWTD thoughts on mask, lock-down and Covid being an over reaction 13:57 - Mar 22 with 3129 views | unstableblue |
.. and other such myths??
I have a small group of friends who have been in a bit of an echo chamber together and have gone very extreme in their views: 'the harmless virus', government control is out of control, the whole Covid-19 reaction is a farce, genuinely as much risk as typical winter flu, BBC are the worst and government controlled, masks invade civil liberties.
I should add these are very bright people, who claim much research, but they are going very 'gammon', consuming certain media channels, 'thought' leaders, and its now causing rifts with other friends. I've avoided it, but am wondering.
Yes I think the deaths have been overstated; and yes the damage to the economy is a VERY significant risk as compared to the impact of the virus; the wait list and deferred treatment is a VERY big concern....
BUt the position this group take seems just wrong. I go to reputable news outlets, and I get this?:
https://www.ft.com/video/0cd6f9f9-664e-40f9-bad4-dde59d7c746c
What are your views on Covid? do you have friends similarly extreme? are they lost and not worth continuing with? get them back to Portman Road so they've got something else to get worked up about? |  |
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| What's the TWTD thoughts on mask, lock-down and Covid being an over reaction on 17:00 - Mar 22 with 728 views | StokieBlue |
| What's the TWTD thoughts on mask, lock-down and Covid being an over reaction on 16:52 - Mar 22 by unstableblue |
Apologies - I was just referring to potential miss classification up or down of CV cases. Which I thought had some validity. See below.
Are the extra deaths all related to Covid-19, or are some of them the result of increases in mortality for other reasons?
During the first wave of the pandemic last Spring, there was a gap between the estimated extra deaths and the number of deaths where Covid-19 was mentioned on the death certificate, with Covid accounting for approximately three-quarters of the number of extra deaths.
The difference could reflect a number of different factors — both clinical and in the reporting.
The range of clinical presentations of Covid-19 is extremely varied, and it may not be apparent that the patient had the virus, particularly for older people who can present with different symptoms.
For patients who haven’t been tested, and more particularly if the patient has tested negatively for the coronavirus, doctors may have been reluctant to include the diagnosis on the death certificate, even though the clinical pattern suggests that Covid is a factor.
In terms of reporting, the ONS data includes any death where Covid-19 is mentioned on the death certificate — either directly, as an underlying cause or as a contributory cause. However, the guidance states that only illnesses that contributed to the death should be listed.
For patients who were already close to the end of their life, doctors may judge that the Covid-19 infection was not a significant factor. Even though the patient died with the disease, they didn’t die from it.
As the pandemic has progressed, changes in coding has closed the gap between deaths from Covid-19 and excess deaths, and towards the end of 2020 non-Covid deaths were below the five-year average. The understanding of how the disease affects different groups of patients has increased, and clinicians have much more experience in identifying and treating the disease. There is also more capacity to test patients for Covid-19, so it is likely to be identified at an earlier stage of their illness. In addition, rates of flu and other usual winter illnesses have been lower than in previous years, as a result of lockdown measures.
However, it remains the case that some of the extra deaths may occur as a result of people not seeking help for other illnesses, or because the NHS stopped planned treatment — which includes care for life-threatening conditions such as cancer, as well as routine check-ups.
In addition, the lockdown response to the pandemic will have affected the risk of death from other causes — from road traffic accidents through to falls and injuries, drug and alcohol related deaths, and suicide. The impact of these wider changes won’t be clear for some time. |
Thanks for the clarification.
So there are some valid points in there but you've also done a good job of highlighting exactly why excess deaths is the only realistic way of looking at the mortality from Covid.
Excess deaths are quoted as a rolling average (usually 5 years) as this has the effect of smoothing out specific things like the items cited in your post. If you think examine the actual excess deaths in the UK over the last year vs the 5 year rolling average you can pretty much safely assume that 90% of those deaths are directly due to C19 and probably 95% are due to pandemic related issues.
Think of it this way. If ITFC perform rubbish for 5 years but one year they got 15 points more than the others then you need to average out those 5 years to get a true picture of form before comparing it to the current season. It's not a perfect analogy but it shows how the effect of small items like the ones you've stated can be minimised using smoothing.
Now with regards to the classification of C19 deaths that all because much less relevant when excess deaths are looked at because the real driver for any difference versus the mean is going to be C19. It's also the only realistic way of comparing countries because every country has a different method of categorising a C19 death.
Given all this it's fairly clear that the deaths from C19 haven't been exaggerated and in fact when the analysis is done at some point in the future they will likely have been understated on a global level for the countries where excess deaths data is reliable.
SB |  | | |
| What's the TWTD thoughts on mask, lock-down and Covid being an over reaction on 17:24 - Mar 22 with 697 views | Sarge |
There are a lot of different things in there but most are just nonsense that shouldn’t be entertained.
It’s no secret that I utterly detest masks, horrible disgusting things that I shall take delight in burning when this is over and lockdowns are financially, socially and mentally destructive. I’ve posted before about how it’s taken me to the brink 20+ times and sometimes I don’t think this is a popular view because we’re supposed to put other people’s well-being ahead of our own.
But in the absence of a vaccine there really was no alternative, the number of deaths and chaos at the hospitals would have been catastrophic. This crap about it being fake, not dangerous, flu comparisons etc are demonstrably false and shouldn’t be tolerated. Anybody who believes in conspiracies like this is a f’ckin moron, no exceptions. Ditch these people. |  | | |
| What's the TWTD thoughts on mask, lock-down and Covid being an over reaction on 18:10 - Mar 22 with 647 views | SpruceMoose |
| What's the TWTD thoughts on mask, lock-down and Covid being an over reaction on 17:24 - Mar 22 by Sarge |
There are a lot of different things in there but most are just nonsense that shouldn’t be entertained.
It’s no secret that I utterly detest masks, horrible disgusting things that I shall take delight in burning when this is over and lockdowns are financially, socially and mentally destructive. I’ve posted before about how it’s taken me to the brink 20+ times and sometimes I don’t think this is a popular view because we’re supposed to put other people’s well-being ahead of our own.
But in the absence of a vaccine there really was no alternative, the number of deaths and chaos at the hospitals would have been catastrophic. This crap about it being fake, not dangerous, flu comparisons etc are demonstrably false and shouldn’t be tolerated. Anybody who believes in conspiracies like this is a f’ckin moron, no exceptions. Ditch these people. |
Sadly these people walk among us. I've even had a regular poster on here PM me ranting and raving about how Covid is a 'Plan-demic'.
Nutters. |  |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| What's the TWTD thoughts on mask, lock-down and Covid being an over reaction on 18:16 - Mar 22 with 634 views | m14_blue |
| What's the TWTD thoughts on mask, lock-down and Covid being an over reaction on 18:10 - Mar 22 by SpruceMoose |
Sadly these people walk among us. I've even had a regular poster on here PM me ranting and raving about how Covid is a 'Plan-demic'.
Nutters. |
Stokie? | | | |
| What's the TWTD thoughts on mask, lock-down and Covid being an over reaction on 18:17 - Mar 22 with 632 views | SpruceMoose |
| What's the TWTD thoughts on mask, lock-down and Covid being an over reaction on 18:16 - Mar 22 by m14_blue |
Stokie? |
Nah not him. He is a flat earther though. | |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| What's the TWTD thoughts on mask, lock-down and Covid being an over reaction on 18:18 - Mar 22 with 627 views | eireblue |
| What's the TWTD thoughts on mask, lock-down and Covid being an over reaction on 18:10 - Mar 22 by SpruceMoose |
Sadly these people walk among us. I've even had a regular poster on here PM me ranting and raving about how Covid is a 'Plan-demic'.
Nutters. |
Intriguing...hmmmm...... is that the correct spelling of “nutters”? |  | | |
| What's the TWTD thoughts on mask, lock-down and Covid being an over reaction on 18:20 - Mar 22 with 622 views | eireblue |
| What's the TWTD thoughts on mask, lock-down and Covid being an over reaction on 15:35 - Mar 22 by footers |
You can judge a man by the company he keeps. |
I am fu*cking awesome then.
A. Hermit | | | |
| What's the TWTD thoughts on mask, lock-down and Covid being an over reaction on 18:36 - Mar 22 with 600 views | Herbivore |
| What's the TWTD thoughts on mask, lock-down and Covid being an over reaction on 18:10 - Mar 22 by SpruceMoose |
Sadly these people walk among us. I've even had a regular poster on here PM me ranting and raving about how Covid is a 'Plan-demic'.
Nutters. |
First it was Morrissey, now this. That footers is a right berk. |  |
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| What's the TWTD thoughts on mask, lock-down and Covid being an over reaction on 18:41 - Mar 22 with 594 views | footers |
| What's the TWTD thoughts on mask, lock-down and Covid being an over reaction on 18:36 - Mar 22 by Herbivore |
First it was Morrissey, now this. That footers is a right berk. |
Not forgetting my several books on or by Noel Edmonds. Another supposed 'crime'. |  |
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| What's the TWTD thoughts on mask, lock-down and Covid being an over reaction on 10:09 - Mar 23 with 513 views | The_Flashing_Smile |
| What's the TWTD thoughts on mask, lock-down and Covid being an over reaction on 16:02 - Mar 22 by Herbivore |
Have you seen the flat earther documentary on Netflix? I genuinely think there's no real hope when it comes to conspiracy theorists. Our best bet is to sterilise them and hope their kind die out within a generation |
I did. It was a fascinating watch - for the people rather than their batsh!t theories. |  |
| Trust the process. Trust Phil. |
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