| Scottish Independence Referendum 19:02 - Jun 28 with 6326 views | unbelievablue |
Here's your job: convince me (English, lives in England, no ties to Scotland) that I should care and/or be annoyed about it.*
*I say this because, in the social groups of which I am a (integral, obviously) contributing member, there seems to be a fair deal of hand-wringing/anger/annoyance about the whole thing, and I really can't tell why. |  |
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| Scottish Independence Referendum on 11:11 - Jun 29 with 750 views | Darth_Koont |
| Scottish Independence Referendum on 10:58 - Jun 29 by leitrimblue |
Probably not the best negotiating technique but I have to confess my addiction to both products is so strong I will pay whatever independence surcharge is put on um to guarantee I receive my fix. |
We might have had this conversation before but my red line will be Tunnock’s Caramel Wafers.
How can something so heavy be so light and vice versa? I think this is dark matter in a wrapper. |  |
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| Scottish Independence Referendum on 11:19 - Jun 29 with 711 views | tractordownsouth |
| Scottish Independence Referendum on 10:51 - Jun 29 by Darth_Koont |
Just silly.
For example, do you think FDI in Scotland will go down as a result of being an independent nation? How exactly when they’d be able to tailor terms and FDI in Scotland is already very low and dwarfed by FDI in our nearest neighbours?
But keep using the facile Brexit comparisons by all means. It’ll show that the UK parties just don’t understand much about anything beyond their own bubble. |
FDI generally reduces during a period of economic upheaval, as it has done in the UK since 2016. If Scottish government was forced to "tailor terms" to keep investment in the country surely that would just involve cutting regulations and taxes for the wealthy? Given that your justification for independence is centred on ending Tory rule and replacing it with social democracy (one that I share even if I disagree on how it should be brought about), I don't see how such a policy would be compatible with that vision.
You may view the Brexit comparisons as "facile" but I see very little difference in the political and economic arguments. The two main pro-Brexit slogans of "take back control" and "project fear" were first used by the SNP in 2014 and are used to counter the negative economic projections by independent organisations like the IFS, just as they were by the likes of Johnson, Gove and Farage in 2016 when they were decrying experts.
And I saw another thread where you spoke about the transition to independence being difficult for Scotland - again, that has similarities with Rees-Mogg saying it might take 50 years to see the benefits of Brexit (even if granted, your timescale for independence may be a bit shorter.)
From what I can see, every argument boils down to the UK government being the problem, not the UK itself. And there are ways to solve that that don't have to involve trading disruptions, borders and neglecting public services to focus on years of negotiations. It's all well and good to cite Denmark or Ireland as examples of small countries with strong economies but that doesn't escape the fact that the overwhelming majority of studies show that Scotland would be worse off. And from the rest of the UK's perspective, a likely recession or reduction in economic performance for a near neighbour isn't good for us either. |  |
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| Scottish Independence Referendum on 11:20 - Jun 29 with 710 views | giant_stow |
| Scottish Independence Referendum on 11:09 - Jun 29 by Darth_Koont |
Just like Brexit, there are costs certainly in the short term but some even in the long term.
But unlike Brexit, there is no vague fantasy promise of sunny uplands and harnessing the ghost of empire. The upside is shown in reality: with all our similarly sized and even smaller neighbours in northwest Europe and Scandinavia who have developed far stronger and more diverse economies, better social and living standards and who do well within a union like the EU which allows smaller countries and regions to have a real say.
Costs will run into the billions, but the GDP gap from Scotland up to our similar-sized neighbours runs to the tens of billions with all the associated social benefits that brings. Scotland has so many natural and human resources plus the infrastructure and fledgling economy to take advantage of it. Rep. of Ireland has taken a different route without the same resources but even they’ve made it work by tailoring themselves to the world in a way that is completely impossible as part of the UK with the most centralised economy and one of the least-functioning democracies in the OECD. |
Sorry Darth, but to my jaded eyes, your talk of matching the standard of living in Denmark etc while glossing over enormous short term costs of leaving, really does read like Brexiteer spin.
Maybe its doable, but its just as possible (if not more so)( that an independent Scotland would sink under the the cost of supporting itself fully and that's just to maintain current standards of living. |  |
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| Scottish Independence Referendum on 11:20 - Jun 29 with 709 views | leitrimblue |
| Scottish Independence Referendum on 11:11 - Jun 29 by Darth_Koont |
We might have had this conversation before but my red line will be Tunnock’s Caramel Wafers.
How can something so heavy be so light and vice versa? I think this is dark matter in a wrapper. |
I don't mind a Tunnocks snowball, but it's the extra stability and crisp outer layer brought about by the introduction of a thin chocolate outer layer and the chocolate covered biscuit base that really make it Tunnocks stand out product. |  | | |
| Scottish Independence Referendum on 11:24 - Jun 29 with 698 views | tractordownsouth |
| Scottish Independence Referendum on 08:31 - Jun 29 by unbelievablue |
I understand the sentiment but highly doubt the Scottish breaking away from the Union would have a worse impact than Brexit. |
60% of Scotland's trade is with the UK, compared to the UK's trade with the EU being roughly 45%.
I get the identity issue of independence but I don't see how the UK breaking away from its nearest trading partner being a disaster is somehow an argument for Scotland to break away from its nearest trading partner. If anything, it's the opposite. | |
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| Scottish Independence Referendum on 11:29 - Jun 29 with 676 views | Darth_Koont |
| Scottish Independence Referendum on 11:20 - Jun 29 by giant_stow |
Sorry Darth, but to my jaded eyes, your talk of matching the standard of living in Denmark etc while glossing over enormous short term costs of leaving, really does read like Brexiteer spin.
Maybe its doable, but its just as possible (if not more so)( that an independent Scotland would sink under the the cost of supporting itself fully and that's just to maintain current standards of living. |
I’ve just shown you the sums.
Annual cost of leaving the UK — I’ll let you have 10 billion even though that’s ridiculous and certainly wouldn’t be that high over time.
Annual gap in GDP compared to our neighbours — I’ll give you a conservative 50 billion even though the potential step up to our neighbours is a lot higher than that.
What’s your reality-based scenario where a developed and independent country in northwestern Europe can’t match its neighbours or even come close? None of those countries need or want bailing out by UK central government either, which is where a non-independent Scotland currently is and stuck in an economy tailored to centralised power and finance 400 hundred miles away. | |
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| Scottish Independence Referendum on 11:31 - Jun 29 with 667 views | Darth_Koont |
| Scottish Independence Referendum on 11:24 - Jun 29 by tractordownsouth |
60% of Scotland's trade is with the UK, compared to the UK's trade with the EU being roughly 45%.
I get the identity issue of independence but I don't see how the UK breaking away from its nearest trading partner being a disaster is somehow an argument for Scotland to break away from its nearest trading partner. If anything, it's the opposite. |
It’s not like Brexit. The cost/benefits are completely different.
But keep banging that drum if it helps you cope. And please make it the new Better Together campaign.
In your trade balance world, Ireland should be looking to join the UK. But even a child can see they’re better off out of it and able to navigate their own way. [Post edited 29 Jun 2022 11:32]
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| Scottish Independence Referendum on 11:36 - Jun 29 with 643 views | Darth_Koont |
| Scottish Independence Referendum on 11:20 - Jun 29 by leitrimblue |
I don't mind a Tunnocks snowball, but it's the extra stability and crisp outer layer brought about by the introduction of a thin chocolate outer layer and the chocolate covered biscuit base that really make it Tunnocks stand out product. |
Indeed, even if the wafers are my favourite, the tea cakes are definitely impressive works of engineering, texture and taste. | |
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| Scottish Independence Referendum on 11:39 - Jun 29 with 636 views | giant_stow |
| Scottish Independence Referendum on 11:29 - Jun 29 by Darth_Koont |
I’ve just shown you the sums.
Annual cost of leaving the UK — I’ll let you have 10 billion even though that’s ridiculous and certainly wouldn’t be that high over time.
Annual gap in GDP compared to our neighbours — I’ll give you a conservative 50 billion even though the potential step up to our neighbours is a lot higher than that.
What’s your reality-based scenario where a developed and independent country in northwestern Europe can’t match its neighbours or even come close? None of those countries need or want bailing out by UK central government either, which is where a non-independent Scotland currently is and stuck in an economy tailored to centralised power and finance 400 hundred miles away. |
No time to get into a figures game, sadly and I'm certainly no economist in any case.
I'm sure Scotland could be independent financially - I just wish the SNP were honest about the likelihood of a rough ride, instead of fantasy talk of walking away from debts, sharing the pound or oil prices saving the economy, all while maintaining the standard of living. In fairness, maybe they've ditched some of that talk since the last time - not sure. | |
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| Scottish Independence Referendum on 11:40 - Jun 29 with 633 views | pointofblue |
| Scottish Independence Referendum on 11:09 - Jun 29 by Darth_Koont |
Just like Brexit, there are costs certainly in the short term but some even in the long term.
But unlike Brexit, there is no vague fantasy promise of sunny uplands and harnessing the ghost of empire. The upside is shown in reality: with all our similarly sized and even smaller neighbours in northwest Europe and Scandinavia who have developed far stronger and more diverse economies, better social and living standards and who do well within a union like the EU which allows smaller countries and regions to have a real say.
Costs will run into the billions, but the GDP gap from Scotland up to our similar-sized neighbours runs to the tens of billions with all the associated social benefits that brings. Scotland has so many natural and human resources plus the infrastructure and fledgling economy to take advantage of it. Rep. of Ireland has taken a different route without the same resources but even they’ve made it work by tailoring themselves to the world in a way that is completely impossible as part of the UK with the most centralised economy and one of the least-functioning democracies in the OECD. |
Thanks for the reply.
With the natural resources, is this where Scotland could run into trouble with the green agenda being pushed? Albeit I know there are a lot of wind farms in Scotland so perhaps the reliance on oil will become less as time goes on.
How easy do you think it will be to come to an agreement between Scotland and the rest of the U.K. in terms of trade, especially when it comes to standards? I assume the U.K. as a whole is each individual country’s strongest trading partner of sorts. If there are goods which meet rest of U.K. standards but not Scottish standards, could they be kept out of the country without a hard border? Especially if Scotland does rejoin the EU.
One of the understandable results of Brexit negotiations was the EU not giving an inch to the U.K., not wanting to show any ‘benefits’ of leaving the union. I assume there will be similar, sticky, negotiations should independence be won between Hollyrood and Westminster? |  |
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| Scottish Independence Referendum on 11:43 - Jun 29 with 631 views | giant_stow |
| Scottish Independence Referendum on 11:31 - Jun 29 by Darth_Koont |
It’s not like Brexit. The cost/benefits are completely different.
But keep banging that drum if it helps you cope. And please make it the new Better Together campaign.
In your trade balance world, Ireland should be looking to join the UK. But even a child can see they’re better off out of it and able to navigate their own way. [Post edited 29 Jun 2022 11:32]
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... but be honest about how Ireland does that: a low tax, low social support economy. | |
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| Scottish Independence Referendum (n/t) on 11:52 - Jun 29 with 619 views | tractordownsouth |
| Scottish Independence Referendum on 11:43 - Jun 29 by giant_stow |
... but be honest about how Ireland does that: a low tax, low social support economy. |
[Post edited 29 Jun 2022 13:06]
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| Scottish Independence Referendum on 11:52 - Jun 29 with 617 views | Darth_Koont |
| Scottish Independence Referendum on 11:43 - Jun 29 by giant_stow |
... but be honest about how Ireland does that: a low tax, low social support economy. |
Yes, because that’s how Ireland tailors itself for the global market and within the EU. Scotland doesn’t need to do that as we’re closer in development terms to Denmark. And with far more natural resources than either – not even including fossil fuels that we’d rightfully be transitioning away from. [Post edited 29 Jun 2022 12:20]
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| Scottish Independence Referendum on 12:03 - Jun 29 with 603 views | nodge_blue |
Its a big deal and a one way street. Once it happens its no going back.
So why should there be multiple votes on it until the SNP get their way?
Its a hugely divisive thing. As we've seen with divorcing the EU it leaves a lot of bitterness and arguments in its wake and going forward.
I don't want it for all those reasons.
But I ultimately don't care as much this time around. If it happens and Scotland wants to leave then so be it. It seems that it takes years to join the EU if thats what they want and I think they'll struggle for quite some time. Hence they've changed their proposed rules of divorce to include the UK paying their pensions for years to come (again more rows coming). [Post edited 29 Jun 2022 12:04]
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| Scottish Independence Referendum on 12:30 - Jun 29 with 565 views | Darth_Koont |
| Scottish Independence Referendum on 11:39 - Jun 29 by giant_stow |
No time to get into a figures game, sadly and I'm certainly no economist in any case.
I'm sure Scotland could be independent financially - I just wish the SNP were honest about the likelihood of a rough ride, instead of fantasy talk of walking away from debts, sharing the pound or oil prices saving the economy, all while maintaining the standard of living. In fairness, maybe they've ditched some of that talk since the last time - not sure. |
No time to get into a figures game, but you insist your figures show it’s too costly.
If you ignore even the conservative upside I’ve presented re: improving the Scottish GDP in line with our neighbours then of course it’s too costly.
When you get round to it show me your sums and presumably why the upside of all our neighbours can’t be taken into account. | |
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| Scottish Independence Referendum on 12:39 - Jun 29 with 538 views | leitrimblue |
| Scottish Independence Referendum on 11:43 - Jun 29 by giant_stow |
... but be honest about how Ireland does that: a low tax, low social support economy. |
Low tax, social support? Dole in Ireland for a single person is about 4 times that of the UK. I often pay 40% tax | | | |
| Scottish Independence Referendum on 12:41 - Jun 29 with 536 views | nodge_blue |
| Scottish Independence Referendum on 12:30 - Jun 29 by Darth_Koont |
No time to get into a figures game, but you insist your figures show it’s too costly.
If you ignore even the conservative upside I’ve presented re: improving the Scottish GDP in line with our neighbours then of course it’s too costly.
When you get round to it show me your sums and presumably why the upside of all our neighbours can’t be taken into account. |
David Smith - Economics editor at the Times did a piece about the economics of it. And the summary was that Scotland would be badly off. Im sure if you goggle it you could find it.
Hes a fair, unbiased economist.
Hence why the SNP are now trying to redraw the terms of divorce this time around. Simply because they know they have an issue.
I cant almost be bothered with it now. So many bad things happening in the world that this will just be another (relatively minor) one. | |
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| Scottish Independence Referendum on 12:42 - Jun 29 with 532 views | leitrimblue |
| Scottish Independence Referendum (n/t) on 11:52 - Jun 29 by tractordownsouth |
[Post edited 29 Jun 2022 13:06]
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You wanna explain this in greater detail? | | | |
| Scottish Independence Referendum on 12:47 - Jun 29 with 516 views | Darth_Koont |
| Scottish Independence Referendum on 12:39 - Jun 29 by leitrimblue |
Low tax, social support? Dole in Ireland for a single person is about 4 times that of the UK. I often pay 40% tax |
I took that as low corporation tax mainly. And it’s true that Ireland have made themselves very accommodating to business and foreign investment. But I think a good approach given Ireland was a relatively underdeveloped country with a pretty limited economy for a long time before the EU and globalisation gave it a shot at something else.
The difference in Ireland between when I first visited in the mid-80s and now is extraordinary. I think the challenge now is to take the right step for the greater good rather than the steps that are in the interests of their new-found wealth. You’ll know a lot more about that than me, but I get the feeling that in Ireland there’s still a healthy distrust of the establishment and their interests to prevent them from going full UK.
Never go full UK. | |
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| Scottish Independence Referendum on 12:49 - Jun 29 with 504 views | giant_stow |
| Scottish Independence Referendum on 12:39 - Jun 29 by leitrimblue |
Low tax, social support? Dole in Ireland for a single person is about 4 times that of the UK. I often pay 40% tax |
As a total of govt spending, its the lowest spender on social welfare in the EU, percentage wise, apparently. The low tax bit is corporation tax at least - must admit, I know nothing about personal taxes. [Post edited 29 Jun 2022 12:50]
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| Scottish Independence Referendum on 12:51 - Jun 29 with 497 views | nodge_blue |
| Scottish Independence Referendum on 12:03 - Jun 29 by nodge_blue |
Its a big deal and a one way street. Once it happens its no going back.
So why should there be multiple votes on it until the SNP get their way?
Its a hugely divisive thing. As we've seen with divorcing the EU it leaves a lot of bitterness and arguments in its wake and going forward.
I don't want it for all those reasons.
But I ultimately don't care as much this time around. If it happens and Scotland wants to leave then so be it. It seems that it takes years to join the EU if thats what they want and I think they'll struggle for quite some time. Hence they've changed their proposed rules of divorce to include the UK paying their pensions for years to come (again more rows coming). [Post edited 29 Jun 2022 12:04]
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The article is a behind a pay wall. And written in 2020 tbf, so maybe some aspects have changed.
But here's a copy:
these are heady days for supporters of Scottish independence. Fifteen polls in a row have shown net backing for independence among those likely to vote, with Ipsos Mori’s latest survey for STV showing 56% in favour of breaking free from the rest of the UK.
Support has risen as a result of the coronavirus crisis. It could have gone either way. Scotland’s death rate per million people from Covid-19 in recent weeks has been higher than in England, although its cumulative total is slightly less, and is also lower than in Wales, though higher than in Northern Ireland.
Scotland has benefited hugely from the UK’s ability to borrow vast sums to fund its crisis response, with the help of the Bank of England, and has gained massively from those UK schemes. As its own independent economic and fiscal forecaster said in September: “The largest increase in spending in Scotland has been through UK-wide schemes.” Separately, the Scottish budget has been boosted by 14% since the projections set out in February, “largely driven by extra funding from the UK government”.
Despite all this, support for independence has grown, because of the perception that Nicola Sturgeon, the Scottish first minister, has had a good crisis, while Boris Johnson has had a bad one. Even the leader of the Scottish Tories concedes that Sturgeon has the better communication skills. Johnson’s jovial old Etonian schtick does not work north of the border. He was toxic even before he described devolution as “a disaster”.
It is Sturgeon, however, who has again exposed the Achilles heel of independence: the economics of it. Her announcement of a £500 bonus for “Scotland’s life-savers and care-givers” – NHS and care home workers – together with her plea for the UK government to waive tax on it, has once more highlighted the weakness of Scotland’s public finances. The Scottish government describes the bonus as an “investment of around £180m”.
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Every country is borrowing hugely this year because of the pandemic. The official forecast for the UK budget deficit for 2020-21 is £394bn, 19% of gross domestic product. However, Scotland entered this crisis with a budget deficit of 8.6% of GDP, compared with 2.5% for the UK as a whole, according to its own “Gers” (government expenditure and revenue in Scotland) exercise, published in the summer.
Scotland’s budget deficit this year is likely to be a sky-high 26% to 28% of GDP, according to David Phillips of the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), and it will stay above 10% of GDP for years even when this crisis is over. This year’s deficit could be even higher, because of recent additions to spending. As the IFS pointed out: “Under full fiscal autonomy or independence, the deficit would be the Scottish government’s responsibility, and the need for tax rises or spending cuts would be starker.”
STB.DS.06.12.20
The arithmetic behind this is straightforward enough. Even leaving aside the £500 one-off bonus and this year’s budget boost, public spending per head in Scotland, £14,829 in 2019-20, was more than 12% higher than the UK average of £13,196. Taxation, meanwhile, brings in less per head in Scotland than in the UK as a whole, even including a geographical share of North Sea revenues, at £12,058 versus £12,367. You don’t have to be Mr Micawber to know that this is a recipe, if not for misery, then for a big budget deficit. Scotland’s budget deficit per head last year was more than three times the UK average.
Supporters of independence, though not yet the Scottish government or its fiscal watchdog, have tried various devices to escape from this economic and fiscal reality. Some say the country would not be obliged to assume its share of UK debt on independence and, indeed, the former SNP leader Alex Salmond said in the run-up to the 2014 referendum that Scotland would renege on its share of the debt if Westminster did not allow continued use of sterling. Some on the wilder wings of the independence movement advocate the adoption of modern monetary theory (MMT), dealt with here a few weeks ago. That is never going to happen.
SPONSORED
Independence supporters are fond of drawing a parallel between Scotland and successful smaller economies, particularly Scandinavian countries. A common feature of them is that they have higher levels of taxation, about 43% of GDP in Sweden and 46% for Denmark. That compares with a pre-crisis 37% for the UK as a whole and less than 35% of GDP for Scotland. If the Scottish people want fiscally credible independence and the public services they currently enjoy, they and their businesses will have to pay for it with higher taxes.
The public finances are not the only issue. The noted US economist Barry Eichengreen, who has taken a close interest in Scottish independence, writing recently, was happy to describe the prime minister’s EU negotiations as “shambolic” and a reason for rising support for a breakaway from the UK.
However, Eichengreen also lamented the lack of any plan for post-independence currency arrangements. This has become more, not less, difficult since the 2014 referendum, he pointed out. The plan suggested by some a few years ago, for a monetary union with the rest of the UK and continued use of the pound, would not work because Scotland wants to be a member of the EU. A country in a monetary union with a non-EU country cannot join the EU.
Scotland could try to start a currency from scratch, with its own central bank, but it would take time to establish the credibility of both in what Eichengreen described as a “politically charged environment”. Or, there could be continued use of sterling on a temporary basis. Either would be a staging post on the road to euro membership. None of the options is palatable, which is perhaps why we have not seen a currency plan. | |
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| Scottish Independence Referendum on 12:52 - Jun 29 with 494 views | giant_stow |
| Scottish Independence Referendum on 12:47 - Jun 29 by Darth_Koont |
I took that as low corporation tax mainly. And it’s true that Ireland have made themselves very accommodating to business and foreign investment. But I think a good approach given Ireland was a relatively underdeveloped country with a pretty limited economy for a long time before the EU and globalisation gave it a shot at something else.
The difference in Ireland between when I first visited in the mid-80s and now is extraordinary. I think the challenge now is to take the right step for the greater good rather than the steps that are in the interests of their new-found wealth. You’ll know a lot more about that than me, but I get the feeling that in Ireland there’s still a healthy distrust of the establishment and their interests to prevent them from going full UK.
Never go full UK. |
But that's the thing innit - some might say that Ireland's approach is hard-nosed neo-liberalism in successful action. Much more so than the UK and certainly not what the SNP is promising. | |
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| Scottish Independence Referendum on 12:56 - Jun 29 with 492 views | leitrimblue |
| Scottish Independence Referendum on 12:47 - Jun 29 by Darth_Koont |
I took that as low corporation tax mainly. And it’s true that Ireland have made themselves very accommodating to business and foreign investment. But I think a good approach given Ireland was a relatively underdeveloped country with a pretty limited economy for a long time before the EU and globalisation gave it a shot at something else.
The difference in Ireland between when I first visited in the mid-80s and now is extraordinary. I think the challenge now is to take the right step for the greater good rather than the steps that are in the interests of their new-found wealth. You’ll know a lot more about that than me, but I get the feeling that in Ireland there’s still a healthy distrust of the establishment and their interests to prevent them from going full UK.
Never go full UK. |
Ireland would never go full UK  . I find Ireland to be a much fairer society. The income support seems very good and very little stigma around it. We don't seem to have that everyone on the dole is a scrounger culture here. Sinn fein are on course to win the next election so probably more chance of making decisions for the greater good then in the UK for instance | | | |
| Scottish Independence Referendum on 12:56 - Jun 29 with 491 views | Darth_Koont |
| Scottish Independence Referendum on 12:41 - Jun 29 by nodge_blue |
David Smith - Economics editor at the Times did a piece about the economics of it. And the summary was that Scotland would be badly off. Im sure if you goggle it you could find it.
Hes a fair, unbiased economist.
Hence why the SNP are now trying to redraw the terms of divorce this time around. Simply because they know they have an issue.
I cant almost be bothered with it now. So many bad things happening in the world that this will just be another (relatively minor) one. |
I’m not sure being one of Murdoch’s chief economics editors for 30+ years is the badge of honour you think it is.
And I have seen next to nothing over the years from these mainstream and largely right-wing pundits that has ever addressed the better economic status of every single one of our neighbours. If they can’t handle the evidence that is available but need to shape a narrative that excludes that instead, then it doesn’t say a lot for what they’re talking about.
Also, these are the people shaping the debate on the UK economy too. How’s that been working out? | |
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| Scottish Independence Referendum on 12:58 - Jun 29 with 488 views | Darth_Koont |
| Scottish Independence Referendum on 12:56 - Jun 29 by leitrimblue |
Ireland would never go full UK . I find Ireland to be a much fairer society. The income support seems very good and very little stigma around it. We don't seem to have that everyone on the dole is a scrounger culture here. Sinn fein are on course to win the next election so probably more chance of making decisions for the greater good then in the UK for instance |
Glad to hear it.
Great country and great people who have, many times over, earned the chances they’re now getting. | |
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