| Scottish Independence Referendum 19:02 - Jun 28 with 6324 views | unbelievablue |
Here's your job: convince me (English, lives in England, no ties to Scotland) that I should care and/or be annoyed about it.*
*I say this because, in the social groups of which I am a (integral, obviously) contributing member, there seems to be a fair deal of hand-wringing/anger/annoyance about the whole thing, and I really can't tell why. |  |
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| Scottish Independence Referendum on 13:03 - Jun 29 with 617 views | nodge_blue |
| Scottish Independence Referendum on 12:56 - Jun 29 by Darth_Koont |
I’m not sure being one of Murdoch’s chief economics editors for 30+ years is the badge of honour you think it is.
And I have seen next to nothing over the years from these mainstream and largely right-wing pundits that has ever addressed the better economic status of every single one of our neighbours. If they can’t handle the evidence that is available but need to shape a narrative that excludes that instead, then it doesn’t say a lot for what they’re talking about.
Also, these are the people shaping the debate on the UK economy too. How’s that been working out? |
Well Ive copied out the article in another post.
Take it as you wish. But if the Scottish budget is forecast to be 10% over each year, then its doesn't matter whether a right wing, left wing, alien from outer space, is writing the article, the bottom line is that either taxes have to be raised or services cut.
Again, hence why this time around the SNP want the UK to carry on paying pensions. I mean thats going to go down well south of the border isn't it? |  |
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| Scottish Independence Referendum on 13:05 - Jun 29 with 608 views | leitrimblue |
| Scottish Independence Referendum on 13:03 - Jun 29 by nodge_blue |
Well Ive copied out the article in another post.
Take it as you wish. But if the Scottish budget is forecast to be 10% over each year, then its doesn't matter whether a right wing, left wing, alien from outer space, is writing the article, the bottom line is that either taxes have to be raised or services cut.
Again, hence why this time around the SNP want the UK to carry on paying pensions. I mean thats going to go down well south of the border isn't it? |
I like to think Scotland could leve off the reparation money England owes it for the first 50 years at least |  | | |
| Scottish Independence Referendum on 13:05 - Jun 29 with 606 views | tractordownsouth |
| Scottish Independence Referendum on 12:42 - Jun 29 by leitrimblue |
You wanna explain this in greater detail? |
Fair play - I've just looked at the data and house price to income ratio is actually better than the UK. Had been under the impression it was worse.
Duly amended. |  |
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| Scottish Independence Referendum on 13:07 - Jun 29 with 596 views | leitrimblue |
| Scottish Independence Referendum on 12:49 - Jun 29 by giant_stow |
As a total of govt spending, its the lowest spender on social welfare in the EU, percentage wise, apparently. The low tax bit is corporation tax at least - must admit, I know nothing about personal taxes. [Post edited 29 Jun 2022 12:50]
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Honestly Ull,s, I think you would be much happier being poor, old or unemployed etc in Ireland. | | | |
| Scottish Independence Referendum on 13:09 - Jun 29 with 587 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
| Scottish Independence Referendum on 11:09 - Jun 29 by Darth_Koont |
Just like Brexit, there are costs certainly in the short term but some even in the long term.
But unlike Brexit, there is no vague fantasy promise of sunny uplands and harnessing the ghost of empire. The upside is shown in reality: with all our similarly sized and even smaller neighbours in northwest Europe and Scandinavia who have developed far stronger and more diverse economies, better social and living standards and who do well within a union like the EU which allows smaller countries and regions to have a real say.
Costs will run into the billions, but the GDP gap from Scotland up to our similar-sized neighbours runs to the tens of billions with all the associated social benefits that brings. Scotland has so many natural and human resources plus the infrastructure and fledgling economy to take advantage of it. Rep. of Ireland has taken a different route without the same resources but even they’ve made it work by tailoring themselves to the world in a way that is completely impossible as part of the UK with the most centralised economy and one of the least-functioning democracies in the OECD. |
“Rep. of Ireland has taken a different route without the same resources but even”
I see, so what you are advocating is for Scotland to become an offshore tax haven for Headquarting multibillion dollar firms? |  | | |
| Scottish Independence Referendum on 13:10 - Jun 29 with 583 views | Darth_Koont |
| Scottish Independence Referendum on 13:03 - Jun 29 by nodge_blue |
Well Ive copied out the article in another post.
Take it as you wish. But if the Scottish budget is forecast to be 10% over each year, then its doesn't matter whether a right wing, left wing, alien from outer space, is writing the article, the bottom line is that either taxes have to be raised or services cut.
Again, hence why this time around the SNP want the UK to carry on paying pensions. I mean thats going to go down well south of the border isn't it? |
Why would the current economy be the same as an independent country? Surely, you’d look at the economies of other smaller countries in the same region and in the same position of independence within the EU?
I’m not pretending there aren’t costs or that the Scottish economy would transform overnight but that’s the value we’re talking about.
With the real context of Scotland looking more like a former Eastern bloc economy than a northwestern European one, the real question is can we afford to be chained to an increasingly rudderless UK that wasn’t helping Scotland keep up when things were supposedly good and the grownups were in charge? |  |
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| Scottish Independence Referendum on 13:11 - Jun 29 with 580 views | nodge_blue |
| Scottish Independence Referendum on 13:05 - Jun 29 by leitrimblue |
I like to think Scotland could leve off the reparation money England owes it for the first 50 years at least |
There is no Scotland or England in the context that you use it. There is currently a UK. No one "owes" anyone anything. | |
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| Scottish Independence Referendum on 13:11 - Jun 29 with 575 views | leitrimblue |
| Scottish Independence Referendum on 13:05 - Jun 29 by tractordownsouth |
Fair play - I've just looked at the data and house price to income ratio is actually better than the UK. Had been under the impression it was worse.
Duly amended. |
I bought a house in Leitrim ( possibly the cheapest and most rural area of ireland) a couple of years ago for €105, 000. Which is approximately 2 years income. Not sure that would be to easy in most parts of the uk | | | |
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| Scottish Independence Referendum on 13:12 - Jun 29 with 574 views | giant_stow |
| Scottish Independence Referendum on 13:07 - Jun 29 by leitrimblue |
Honestly Ull,s, I think you would be much happier being poor, old or unemployed etc in Ireland. |
I find that easy to believe, but reckon it's despite the fiscal conditions there. I guess Ireland never had Thatcher to destroy 'society'. Or maybe she's just an easy target to blame and we're all arseholes naturally?! |  |
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| Scottish Independence Referendum on 13:15 - Jun 29 with 565 views | Darth_Koont |
| Scottish Independence Referendum on 13:09 - Jun 29 by SuperKieranMcKenna |
“Rep. of Ireland has taken a different route without the same resources but even”
I see, so what you are advocating is for Scotland to become an offshore tax haven for Headquarting multibillion dollar firms? |
No. I literally said that Scotland wouldn’t have to do the same thing. Maybe with certain key industries needed to help diversify and develop the economy but it’s a different ball game for an independent Scotland than it was for Ireland. | |
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| Scottish Independence Referendum on 13:15 - Jun 29 with 564 views | nodge_blue |
| Scottish Independence Referendum on 13:10 - Jun 29 by Darth_Koont |
Why would the current economy be the same as an independent country? Surely, you’d look at the economies of other smaller countries in the same region and in the same position of independence within the EU?
I’m not pretending there aren’t costs or that the Scottish economy would transform overnight but that’s the value we’re talking about.
With the real context of Scotland looking more like a former Eastern bloc economy than a northwestern European one, the real question is can we afford to be chained to an increasingly rudderless UK that wasn’t helping Scotland keep up when things were supposedly good and the grownups were in charge? |
In the long run yes ti your first paragraph. Independence in the long run could be good for Scotland...who knows. In the short term the economy will still be the same. Thats not an unreasonable assumption. But minus being with the Uk and the barnet formula, minus being in the EU for x number of years and with a big budget deficit.
Final paragraph....Im not sure thats true. The barnet forumla seems to have been very fair and helped to pay for Scotland to run a bigger budget deficit than the rest of the UK. There are also many areas in England, Wales and NI that are pretty deprived too. On my visits to Scotland (a country I love) I haven't felt or seen much difference to the rest of the UK.
As that article said:
public spending per head in Scotland, £14,829 in 2019-20, was more than 12% higher than the UK average of £13,196. Taxation, meanwhile, brings in less per head in Scotland than in the UK as a whole, even including a geographical share of North Sea revenues, at £12,058 versus £12,367. You don’t have to be Mr Micawber to know that this is a recipe, if not for misery, then for a big budget deficit. [Post edited 29 Jun 2022 13:23]
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| Scottish Independence Referendum on 13:15 - Jun 29 with 562 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
| Scottish Independence Referendum on 13:09 - Jun 29 by SuperKieranMcKenna |
“Rep. of Ireland has taken a different route without the same resources but even”
I see, so what you are advocating is for Scotland to become an offshore tax haven for Headquarting multibillion dollar firms? |
Apologies- late to the party on that one.
I’m still yet to see why leaving a larger market would have commercial benefits to firms, or indeed not affect overseas investment (sounds familiar). If the referendum were to rejoin the EU I could see an argument but it isn’t. It will be a nation of 5m outside any major trading blocks. It’s another campaign of empty rhetoric. | | | |
| Scottish Independence Referendum on 13:25 - Jun 29 with 539 views | Darth_Koont |
| Scottish Independence Referendum on 13:15 - Jun 29 by nodge_blue |
In the long run yes ti your first paragraph. Independence in the long run could be good for Scotland...who knows. In the short term the economy will still be the same. Thats not an unreasonable assumption. But minus being with the Uk and the barnet formula, minus being in the EU for x number of years and with a big budget deficit.
Final paragraph....Im not sure thats true. The barnet forumla seems to have been very fair and helped to pay for Scotland to run a bigger budget deficit than the rest of the UK. There are also many areas in England, Wales and NI that are pretty deprived too. On my visits to Scotland (a country I love) I haven't felt or seen much difference to the rest of the UK.
As that article said:
public spending per head in Scotland, £14,829 in 2019-20, was more than 12% higher than the UK average of £13,196. Taxation, meanwhile, brings in less per head in Scotland than in the UK as a whole, even including a geographical share of North Sea revenues, at £12,058 versus £12,367. You don’t have to be Mr Micawber to know that this is a recipe, if not for misery, then for a big budget deficit. [Post edited 29 Jun 2022 13:23]
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In pure economic terms it’s absolutely true. Scotland’s economy is way below those of our neighbours and the Barnett formula doesn’t cover the discrepancy even half way.
There are no economic arguments for staying within the UK in its current shape and with its current value, unless you ignore the real world outside and Scotland’s actual position within it.
Again, another significant difference from the Brexiteer position that had to re-imagine the Empire and the Commonwealth of a bygone era. | |
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| Scottish Independence Referendum on 13:25 - Jun 29 with 538 views | Ely_Blue |
| Scottish Independence Referendum on 20:07 - Jun 28 by Cheltenham_Blue |
Not the Welsh so I'm repeatedly informed. But Scotland and NI seem destined to go.
Like having a bad tooth removed, its better to get it over and done with.
However, Sturgeon is lying to the Scottish populous about Europe in the same way Brexit was lied about, it certainly won't be easy to just 'rejoin' the EU, it will take anywhere from 12-15 years and she's not being honest about that.
I'm also intrigued as to how Scotland plans to import goods from the EU. Transporting by ship through the north sea is not ideal, and overland through England is out of the question. Overland through Ireland is possible, but anything through NI runs risks around the peace process.
Its not nearly as simple as she makes out. |
I’m more intrigued as to how their treasury will bring in enough money to cover the welfare, health and social care and all the other free stuff they get from subsidies that come out of Westminster |  |
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| Scottish Independence Referendum on 13:27 - Jun 29 with 525 views | Darth_Koont |
| Scottish Independence Referendum on 13:25 - Jun 29 by Ely_Blue |
I’m more intrigued as to how their treasury will bring in enough money to cover the welfare, health and social care and all the other free stuff they get from subsidies that come out of Westminster |
How does the UK pay for it plus anything else given the debt is almost always rising?
An independent nation isn’t like a household economy. | |
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| Scottish Independence Referendum on 13:31 - Jun 29 with 517 views | nodge_blue |
| Scottish Independence Referendum on 13:25 - Jun 29 by Darth_Koont |
In pure economic terms it’s absolutely true. Scotland’s economy is way below those of our neighbours and the Barnett formula doesn’t cover the discrepancy even half way.
There are no economic arguments for staying within the UK in its current shape and with its current value, unless you ignore the real world outside and Scotland’s actual position within it.
Again, another significant difference from the Brexiteer position that had to re-imagine the Empire and the Commonwealth of a bygone era. |
If you want to say I want independence and thats the bottom line. Then fair enough.
But in the short term lets face that there will be loads of bad feelings and division. Theres already someone here saying what England owes Scotland etc.
And then Scotland until it joins the EU will have economic challenges. And after it joins the EU will then have the NI issue of trade with the UK.
None of this seems worth it to me. We're mates...brothers and sisters.
And I wish we hadn't left the EU btw. | |
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| Scottish Independence Referendum on 13:34 - Jun 29 with 504 views | Ely_Blue |
| Scottish Independence Referendum on 13:27 - Jun 29 by Darth_Koont |
How does the UK pay for it plus anything else given the debt is almost always rising?
An independent nation isn’t like a household economy. |
Remind me of where the largest population concentration is in the UK nations?
England actually gets less free health and welfare benefits than the other countries of the UK such as prescriptions, free eye tests etc | |
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| Scottish Independence Referendum on 13:37 - Jun 29 with 497 views | leitrimblue |
| Scottish Independence Referendum on 13:11 - Jun 29 by nodge_blue |
There is no Scotland or England in the context that you use it. There is currently a UK. No one "owes" anyone anything. |
Really? You wanna explain ' there is no Scotland or England in this context'? | | | |
| Scottish Independence Referendum on 13:38 - Jun 29 with 491 views | nodge_blue |
| Scottish Independence Referendum on 13:37 - Jun 29 by leitrimblue |
Really? You wanna explain ' there is no Scotland or England in this context'? |
No I'll leave that to your intelligence. | |
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| Scottish Independence Referendum on 13:41 - Jun 29 with 479 views | Darth_Koont |
| Scottish Independence Referendum on 12:51 - Jun 29 by nodge_blue |
The article is a behind a pay wall. And written in 2020 tbf, so maybe some aspects have changed.
But here's a copy:
these are heady days for supporters of Scottish independence. Fifteen polls in a row have shown net backing for independence among those likely to vote, with Ipsos Mori’s latest survey for STV showing 56% in favour of breaking free from the rest of the UK.
Support has risen as a result of the coronavirus crisis. It could have gone either way. Scotland’s death rate per million people from Covid-19 in recent weeks has been higher than in England, although its cumulative total is slightly less, and is also lower than in Wales, though higher than in Northern Ireland.
Scotland has benefited hugely from the UK’s ability to borrow vast sums to fund its crisis response, with the help of the Bank of England, and has gained massively from those UK schemes. As its own independent economic and fiscal forecaster said in September: “The largest increase in spending in Scotland has been through UK-wide schemes.” Separately, the Scottish budget has been boosted by 14% since the projections set out in February, “largely driven by extra funding from the UK government”.
Despite all this, support for independence has grown, because of the perception that Nicola Sturgeon, the Scottish first minister, has had a good crisis, while Boris Johnson has had a bad one. Even the leader of the Scottish Tories concedes that Sturgeon has the better communication skills. Johnson’s jovial old Etonian schtick does not work north of the border. He was toxic even before he described devolution as “a disaster”.
It is Sturgeon, however, who has again exposed the Achilles heel of independence: the economics of it. Her announcement of a £500 bonus for “Scotland’s life-savers and care-givers” – NHS and care home workers – together with her plea for the UK government to waive tax on it, has once more highlighted the weakness of Scotland’s public finances. The Scottish government describes the bonus as an “investment of around £180m”.
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Every country is borrowing hugely this year because of the pandemic. The official forecast for the UK budget deficit for 2020-21 is £394bn, 19% of gross domestic product. However, Scotland entered this crisis with a budget deficit of 8.6% of GDP, compared with 2.5% for the UK as a whole, according to its own “Gers” (government expenditure and revenue in Scotland) exercise, published in the summer.
Scotland’s budget deficit this year is likely to be a sky-high 26% to 28% of GDP, according to David Phillips of the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), and it will stay above 10% of GDP for years even when this crisis is over. This year’s deficit could be even higher, because of recent additions to spending. As the IFS pointed out: “Under full fiscal autonomy or independence, the deficit would be the Scottish government’s responsibility, and the need for tax rises or spending cuts would be starker.”
STB.DS.06.12.20
The arithmetic behind this is straightforward enough. Even leaving aside the £500 one-off bonus and this year’s budget boost, public spending per head in Scotland, £14,829 in 2019-20, was more than 12% higher than the UK average of £13,196. Taxation, meanwhile, brings in less per head in Scotland than in the UK as a whole, even including a geographical share of North Sea revenues, at £12,058 versus £12,367. You don’t have to be Mr Micawber to know that this is a recipe, if not for misery, then for a big budget deficit. Scotland’s budget deficit per head last year was more than three times the UK average.
Supporters of independence, though not yet the Scottish government or its fiscal watchdog, have tried various devices to escape from this economic and fiscal reality. Some say the country would not be obliged to assume its share of UK debt on independence and, indeed, the former SNP leader Alex Salmond said in the run-up to the 2014 referendum that Scotland would renege on its share of the debt if Westminster did not allow continued use of sterling. Some on the wilder wings of the independence movement advocate the adoption of modern monetary theory (MMT), dealt with here a few weeks ago. That is never going to happen.
SPONSORED
Independence supporters are fond of drawing a parallel between Scotland and successful smaller economies, particularly Scandinavian countries. A common feature of them is that they have higher levels of taxation, about 43% of GDP in Sweden and 46% for Denmark. That compares with a pre-crisis 37% for the UK as a whole and less than 35% of GDP for Scotland. If the Scottish people want fiscally credible independence and the public services they currently enjoy, they and their businesses will have to pay for it with higher taxes.
The public finances are not the only issue. The noted US economist Barry Eichengreen, who has taken a close interest in Scottish independence, writing recently, was happy to describe the prime minister’s EU negotiations as “shambolic” and a reason for rising support for a breakaway from the UK.
However, Eichengreen also lamented the lack of any plan for post-independence currency arrangements. This has become more, not less, difficult since the 2014 referendum, he pointed out. The plan suggested by some a few years ago, for a monetary union with the rest of the UK and continued use of the pound, would not work because Scotland wants to be a member of the EU. A country in a monetary union with a non-EU country cannot join the EU.
Scotland could try to start a currency from scratch, with its own central bank, but it would take time to establish the credibility of both in what Eichengreen described as a “politically charged environment”. Or, there could be continued use of sterling on a temporary basis. Either would be a staging post on the road to euro membership. None of the options is palatable, which is perhaps why we have not seen a currency plan. |
Sorry – just saw this now.
But as predicted, he’s obsessed with the cost without even engaging in the economic upside of a smaller, more agile developed economy within the EU. His only reference to our neighbours are the cost implications of higher tax – totally ignoring how and why higher taxes work in Scandinavia due to a better performing economy and society responding and feeding off greater investment and security.
It’s all downside and cost with these people because it’s the only evidence that helps them and their narrow perspectives. Whereas I don’t have any problem recognising or addressing the downsides and costs – in the short and long term.
As I said, I’ll certainly listen to counter-arguments that address the upside too. But these need to be based in reality and evidence inside and outside the UK. Rather than a fantasy that must ignore why other similar and neighbouring countries are ALL doing an awful lot better for themselves and their citizens. | |
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| Scottish Independence Referendum on 13:43 - Jun 29 with 473 views | leitrimblue |
| Scottish Independence Referendum on 13:38 - Jun 29 by nodge_blue |
No I'll leave that to your intelligence. |
Guess that's a polite way of saying ' no, I can't explain what I was saying ' | | | |
| Scottish Independence Referendum on 13:48 - Jun 29 with 469 views | nodge_blue |
| Scottish Independence Referendum on 13:41 - Jun 29 by Darth_Koont |
Sorry – just saw this now.
But as predicted, he’s obsessed with the cost without even engaging in the economic upside of a smaller, more agile developed economy within the EU. His only reference to our neighbours are the cost implications of higher tax – totally ignoring how and why higher taxes work in Scandinavia due to a better performing economy and society responding and feeding off greater investment and security.
It’s all downside and cost with these people because it’s the only evidence that helps them and their narrow perspectives. Whereas I don’t have any problem recognising or addressing the downsides and costs – in the short and long term.
As I said, I’ll certainly listen to counter-arguments that address the upside too. But these need to be based in reality and evidence inside and outside the UK. Rather than a fantasy that must ignore why other similar and neighbouring countries are ALL doing an awful lot better for themselves and their citizens. |
look, you're set on independence. Fair enough. Like Ive said if its going to happen Id rather it just did. We cant keep revisiting this every 8 years. Divorces are bitter - EU has shown that. Theres bound to be a period when its a bit post Brexit and that really bubbles up over terms. Maybe a lot would like that, personally I find it depressing.
I felt last time "Brexit" stress without even having a vote!
I also hope one day we vote to rejoin the EU. | |
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| Scottish Independence Referendum on 13:49 - Jun 29 with 467 views | nodge_blue |
| Scottish Independence Referendum on 13:43 - Jun 29 by leitrimblue |
Guess that's a polite way of saying ' no, I can't explain what I was saying ' |
No. | |
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| Scottish Independence Referendum on 13:53 - Jun 29 with 462 views | Darth_Koont |
| Scottish Independence Referendum on 13:31 - Jun 29 by nodge_blue |
If you want to say I want independence and thats the bottom line. Then fair enough.
But in the short term lets face that there will be loads of bad feelings and division. Theres already someone here saying what England owes Scotland etc.
And then Scotland until it joins the EU will have economic challenges. And after it joins the EU will then have the NI issue of trade with the UK.
None of this seems worth it to me. We're mates...brothers and sisters.
And I wish we hadn't left the EU btw. |
We can still be mates and neighbours. We’d just like not to be tenants watching things fall into disrepair.
I believe Scotland and the UK as a whole need much more investment to make life better for ourselves. That’s a shift in priorities too rather than just spending more money. Far too much of the money we spend today seems to end up in the wrong pockets or greases the machine for delivering it to those pockets. | |
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