| 15 wins from the last 20 13:28 - Jan 15 with 5109 views | clive_baker |
Is it doable? Yes, but will be a big ask. Would leave us on 96 which typically would be enough to win a league, in all but 1 (2018) of the past 10 seasons would get you 2nd at least. Crazy that it might not even be enough at the current run rate of the top 2, but hopefully it would be.
We’re not in ‘must win’ territory yet and of course some wins are bigger than others (Wednesday at home for example), but we certainly need to find a way to win soon. Couple of big games before the FA cup break and can’t help but feel we need 6 points from them.
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| 15 wins from the last 20 on 21:29 - Jan 15 with 1425 views | clive_baker |
| 15 wins from the last 20 on 19:51 - Jan 15 by Guthrum |
In 2018, 96 points would have got you 2nd place as well (in fact did, for Blackburn), on the grounds 3rd only had 87. |
A team could’ve finished on 96 with a lesser goal difference and not made the top 2. | |
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| 15 wins from the last 20 on 22:18 - Jan 15 with 1354 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
| 15 wins from the last 20 on 18:02 - Jan 15 by ibbleobble |
I’m not saying it’s not within the team to do so, it just won’t happen. We need to turn around a bit of a ‘slump’, bed in and find the balance with the new signings, beat everyone in the bottom half of the table (9 teams) and beat 4 of the sides out of 10 placed in the top half.
This gives us 7 games leeway to not take maximum points. Stay tuned. We’ll continue this chat game-on-game as we go. |
"I’m not saying it’s not within the team to do so, it just won’t happen."
Which one of those two contradictory statements in the same sentence are you going for?
EDIT: Plus if we do beat everyone in the bottom half of the table (9 teams) is actually 10 teams:
Oxford, Morecambe, Cambridge, Forest Green, MK Dons, Burton, Accrington, Shrewsbury, Cheltenham, Fleetwood.
Just because Exeter (10th), Charlton (12th), Port Vale (11th), Peterborough (9th), Wycombe (7th), Barnsley (6th) and Bristol Rovers (8th) are top half, it doesn't mean we can't win any of those matches. Beating Sheff Wed at Portman Road would be a big win for us.
Between those fixtures, there are 13 wins we should be able to gain. Will we do so? Time will tell. Of course, anything can happen in any particular match. We could still beat Derby and/or Bolton on the same basis. [Post edited 15 Jan 2023 22:34]
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| 15 wins from the last 20 on 22:45 - Jan 15 with 1327 views | Guthrum |
| 15 wins from the last 20 on 21:10 - Jan 15 by NeedhamChris |
My worry here is that there's such a chasm between the top clubs and the rest of the league - that this season is ripe for being an exception to that.
A Peterborough fan in 2012/13 would have been pretty confident that 54 points would have kept them in the Championship.
Right now, we should be focused less on what we might need, and more on getting into the top two and then staying there. Over the last 10 games we've lost a little ground on Plymouth and performed much worse than Wednesday. We need to fix that soon, otherwise all of this is redundant. |
The two go hand-in-hand. Points equals position.
That "chasm" is really only a stretching out of the totals for 1st to 4th. Below that it's actually concentrated towards the centre. The bottom teams are currently stronger than last season, for example (on 15th Jan 2022 Gillingham and Doncaster were significantly behind the total Forest Green are on now).
With the bottom teams being not so weak, that gives fewer easy points for teams which are good but not supreme (the "chasing pack"). |  |
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| 15 wins from the last 20 on 23:05 - Jan 15 with 1292 views | Kievthegreat |
3 winnable games coming up in the league, with the knowledge that the Plymouth and Wednesday play each other so one or both will drop points and we can close the gap so long as we perform as we need to. Focus on getting those 9 points first before working out the rest of the season. |  | | |
| 15 wins from the last 20 on 09:04 - Jan 16 with 1167 views | ringwoodblue |
I’d love us to string some wins together first and then let’s see where that gets us.
Even though 15 out of 20 is not really realistic, even that won’t be enough if Plymouth and Wednesday also win 15 more games.
One game at a time and it starts at Oxford |  |
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| 15 wins from the last 20 on 09:10 - Jan 16 with 1149 views | itfcjoe |
| 15 wins from the last 20 on 16:05 - Jan 15 by clive_baker |
That’s not really the question. It’s more to do with what will actually likely be required for promotion from where we are now. Of course it’s guess work but 91 feels light, as ridiculous as that sounds |
SportsClubStats doing all it's caluclations has it like this re points required
Points - %age chance of top 2
85 - 20%
86 - 27%
87 - 37%
88 - 45%
89 - 55%
90 - 64%
91 - 73%
92 - 80%
93 - 86%
94 - 91%
95 - 94%
96 - 97%
97 - 98%
So looking at getting 90 points to basically give you a 2 in 3 chance of going up - that feels about right.
Need to hit that 92 mark really |  |
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| 15 wins from the last 20 on 09:19 - Jan 16 with 1134 views | SomethingBlue |
If we can win the next couple — and we really need to start winning again — then Wednesday & Plymouth play each other the day we're at Cambridge and it would feel like things are moving our way once more ... |  |
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| 15 wins from the last 20 on 09:52 - Jan 16 with 1098 views | clive_baker |
| 15 wins from the last 20 on 09:19 - Jan 16 by SomethingBlue |
If we can win the next couple — and we really need to start winning again — then Wednesday & Plymouth play each other the day we're at Cambridge and it would feel like things are moving our way once more ... |
Yep, agreed. 6 points before the FA Cup game ideally. Reluctant to say a 'must', but need to close that gap and get back to winning ways. | |
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| 15 wins from the last 20 on 10:53 - Jan 16 with 1058 views | FrimleyBlue |
| 15 wins from the last 20 on 15:18 - Jan 15 by Cheltenham_Blue |
if we end on 91 points, we've had an amazing season.
If the two promoted get more that that, then its got little to do with us. 91 should be more than enough to get a side up. |
It's got little to do with us?
Well taking 6 points off plymouth would have helped and still 1 game to go. But we dropped 2 against Wednesday.
Let's see how it ends up. But It's funny seeing people saying oh never mind if they beat us for points then nothing we can do about it. |  |
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| 15 wins from the last 20 on 11:02 - Jan 16 with 1051 views | clive_baker |
| 15 wins from the last 20 on 09:10 - Jan 16 by itfcjoe |
SportsClubStats doing all it's caluclations has it like this re points required
Points - %age chance of top 2
85 - 20%
86 - 27%
87 - 37%
88 - 45%
89 - 55%
90 - 64%
91 - 73%
92 - 80%
93 - 86%
94 - 91%
95 - 94%
96 - 97%
97 - 98%
So looking at getting 90 points to basically give you a 2 in 3 chance of going up - that feels about right.
Need to hit that 92 mark really |
Yeah these don't feel a million miles off, will be interesting to see at the end of the season what the magic number is. My 96 was based on a number that should all but guarantee it and leave little to chance rather than what it will necessarily be, but I can't see anything starting in an 8 being enough for 2nd place tbh. 6 points from the last 15 available is definitely a poor run of form by top 2 challenger standards, we need to get back to winning ways immediately.
6 from 6 before the FA Cup game would be massive, they're both very winnable and if we go into that FA Cup break (which is essentially a real free hit) on 57 points with 54 left to play for we'll certainly be in a good spot. We've got all the tools in our locker now, let's hope we can do ourselves justice. | |
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| 15 wins from the last 20 on 10:57 - Apr 21 with 591 views | clive_baker |
16 games on from this thread and 96 is still (at the moment) the magic number for me.
Purely on the basis that would now guarantee promotion barring a GD catastrophe (which simply wont happen). Of course it could come down as soon as tomorrow if Sheffield Wednesday don't beat Exeter. I would be a touch surprised if they win 3/3 in truth, given they look to me like a leggy side, and none of their fixtures are straight forward.
I wouldn't change the prediction at this juncture but actually I would now be surprised if 94 wasn't enough, perhaps 93 with our superior GD.
I would go as follows in terms of where we'll end up depending on points from these 4:
12 points: 100 points, Champions
11 points: N/A
10 points: 98 points. Champions
9 points: 97 points, Promoted
8 points: 96 points, Promoted
7 points: 95 points, Promoted
6 points: 94 points, Promoted
5 points: 93 points, Squeaky bums, but Promoted
4 points: 92 points, 3rd
3 points: 91 points, 3rd
2 points: 90 points, 4th
1 point: 89 points, 4th
0 points: 88 points, 4th | |
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