| FFP and the January window 13:21 - Nov 13 with 3652 views | burnbudgiesburn |
Thread inspired by the latest blue monday pod.
I personally think we are close to the limit of FFP and cannot 'splash the cash' too much but I hadn't thought of the 2/3 scenarios presented.
1. We 'go for it' knowing these opportunities don't come along often and splash out 15-20m on players with the knowledge we can always sell on an asset like Leif Davis should we fail to rebalance our FFP
2. We frontload signing on fee promises to players, with our league position we are now attractive and could offer high promotion bonus clauses to get players to PR
3. You can get loan players at clubs to be recalled by their parent club and sent to clubs further up the chain. e.g Jay Stansfield at Birmingham
So, do we 'go for it' ? Upside is we may hold onto assets like Leif Davis/McKenna himself if we go up. Downside if we don't is we'll have to sell assets and hamstring us in terms of spending for a few seasons. |  | | |  |
| FFP and the January window on 14:30 - Nov 13 with 720 views | NorthLondonBlue2 |
Much as we recruited for the championship while in league 1, if we are still top two come January, we have to recruit for the PL then. It will be too late in the summer; the extent of preparation is going to be hugely demanding and can’t be done in just a few weeks.
So, league position depending - bearing in mind we will just have played Leeds and Leicester - if we’re still doing well, I would expect to see some significant recruitment in the January window. | | | |
| FFP and the January window on 14:30 - Nov 13 with 720 views | MK1 |
| FFP and the January window on 14:09 - Nov 13 by bluesbrothers |
As things stand, with our current league position, the plan is to spend heavily. |
The clubs plan or yours? |  | | |
| FFP and the January window on 14:35 - Nov 13 with 702 views | Vegtablue |
| FFP and the January window on 13:37 - Nov 13 by Churchman |
I wouldn’t do much in January. The squad looks ok and the results to date say that.
The big concern is Hirst. He’s crucial to how we play so if we could add somebody similar or better, great. However the chances of that are slim. A DM like the Barnsley lad Connell maybe?
We would need to move on a couple of the fringe players on to counterbalance this.
No, I would not splash the cash on players. Assuming we have recruitment plans and targets, stick to them. Stay within FFP too. There is no guarantee splashing £15-£20m on players would improve the team. In fact it might do the reverse by breaking cohesion and team spirit. [Post edited 13 Nov 2023 14:20]
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Keeping within FFP is non-negotiable for sure, we don't want to repeat Chansiri's mistakes. Depending on when our P&S submission period ends, it may be possible to overspend in January and then sneak in by selling an asset at the very start of the summer window, but that's a sure-fire way to get a poor deal and so I can't see us doing it even if dates allow for it.
To the poster who asked how we can be close to the limit already, it feels impossible to confidently predict where we are as fans only have the 2021/22 accounts to go off. We recorded a £12.6m loss that year (our P&S loss should be lower due to exempt costs, but how much lower?) and we're allowed to lose £39m across three years. This is our final full transfer window of that three-year cycle. Looking at 2022/23, it's likely our net spend on transfers and wages exceeded 2021/22 by £5m+ but our revenue will have increased substantially also. This season we have even more revenue and more spending. Is it all enough to mean we have £5m available to spend in January or £15m? Anyone's guess from our seat.
What we do know is we've avoided injuries incredibly well this season and we have no depth in Hirst's role, very little in CM (three covering two positions). It isn't inconceivable that we need to survive (or continue to thrive, if automatics is a genuine goal now) a period without two first-choice players in any position, it's happened to plenty of clubs already, and the drop-off is too great in at least two positions currently.
NB. In case anyone isn't aware, the three-year FFP period will now continue to roll one year forwards, not reset to zero. If we spend every last penny this season and remain in the Championship, we will need to ensure our losses next season don't exceed the loss we recorded in League One in 21/22. | | | |
| FFP and the January window on 15:01 - Nov 13 with 653 views | tractorboy1978 |
| FFP and the January window on 14:35 - Nov 13 by Vegtablue |
Keeping within FFP is non-negotiable for sure, we don't want to repeat Chansiri's mistakes. Depending on when our P&S submission period ends, it may be possible to overspend in January and then sneak in by selling an asset at the very start of the summer window, but that's a sure-fire way to get a poor deal and so I can't see us doing it even if dates allow for it.
To the poster who asked how we can be close to the limit already, it feels impossible to confidently predict where we are as fans only have the 2021/22 accounts to go off. We recorded a £12.6m loss that year (our P&S loss should be lower due to exempt costs, but how much lower?) and we're allowed to lose £39m across three years. This is our final full transfer window of that three-year cycle. Looking at 2022/23, it's likely our net spend on transfers and wages exceeded 2021/22 by £5m+ but our revenue will have increased substantially also. This season we have even more revenue and more spending. Is it all enough to mean we have £5m available to spend in January or £15m? Anyone's guess from our seat.
What we do know is we've avoided injuries incredibly well this season and we have no depth in Hirst's role, very little in CM (three covering two positions). It isn't inconceivable that we need to survive (or continue to thrive, if automatics is a genuine goal now) a period without two first-choice players in any position, it's happened to plenty of clubs already, and the drop-off is too great in at least two positions currently.
NB. In case anyone isn't aware, the three-year FFP period will now continue to roll one year forwards, not reset to zero. If we spend every last penny this season and remain in the Championship, we will need to ensure our losses next season don't exceed the loss we recorded in League One in 21/22. |
Great summary. Ultimately pointless us speculating on the numbers because we have no idea how much of the losses are due to exempt costs. We also won't have oversight of how previous/future deals in and out have been structured from an accounting perspective.
It feels to me though that we have two or three very saleable assets next summer if we don't go up, so I think we can afford to front load some spending this January. | | | |
| FFP and the January window on 15:19 - Nov 13 with 603 views | Coastalblue |
I suspect a lot of this will depend on where we sit January 1st, and how leggy or strong we are looking then.
Having said that, I would expect conversations are being had constantly with regards to upgrades and it may well be that our aspirations will move upward a little now in terms of recruitment.
I don't see us spending £10M plus, and may not even need to, although somebody on here consistently claimed we were going to break our transfer record, not once, but two or three times in the summer.
We've got a solid squad and appear to have a good harmony within it, spending big could actually break that and suddenly we're no longer greater than the sum of our parts. Lots of us remember that happening before I'm sure. |  |
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| FFP and the January window on 15:31 - Nov 13 with 574 views | SouthfieldsBlue |
If we don't go up we will be selling Davis in the summer, likely for a lot of money. given thats the case, I see no reason as to why we wouldn't spend that money in advance in January, likely on another striker, whilst also getting another couple of fringe players out of the door.
Regardless, I don't think Ashton is going to let us die wandering like Evans in 2015 | | | |
| FFP and the January window on 15:34 - Nov 13 with 547 views | Bent_double |
| FFP and the January window on 14:19 - Nov 13 by ChaplinsLob |
Pretty sure that our clock started 3 years ago. |
Oh, I thought the limits were different in L1 and L2, fair enough. |  |
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| FFP and the January window on 15:52 - Nov 13 with 513 views | ReusersTown |
| FFP and the January window on 13:34 - Nov 13 by Metal_Hacker |
All we need IMHO is someone to help out George up top - someone to take the burden off him a little , who is as good him at pressing and holding the ball up , commanding two central defenders
Elsewhere I think we're Ok if we keep hold of what we already have in Hutch and Williams as well |
Can we start talking to Williams about a contract in Jan / sign him? | | | |
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| FFP and the January window on 15:56 - Nov 13 with 494 views | ReusersTown |
| FFP and the January window on 13:35 - Nov 13 by ChampionsofInnsbruck |
Just of interest, given our spending is lower than most of the league, how are we that close to the FFP limit if others presumably aren't? We're hardly jam packed with ex-Prem players are we! |
There's no reason we are pushing FFP, and I don't know how they've cone to that conclusion. If anything I'd say we've got some cash left in our pockets from the summer, where it seemed we couldn't land our primary winger/forward/defender targets and settled for loans. | | | |
| FFP and the January window on 15:56 - Nov 13 with 493 views | noggin |
If we can't afford Williams, we need someone of his mould. |  |
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| FFP and the January window on 15:58 - Nov 13 with 486 views | LankHenners |
We were willing to spend a bit more than we ultimately did in the summer so the money's there if we went to upgrade again without needing to go silly and risky with it.
Probably trickier to do but wouldn't be surprised if we tried for something of a repeat of last January to bolster the squad with real quality players who are already top end Champ/potential for higher.
Some players might now be available on loan that weren't in the summer as their parent club held on but haven't used them as much and can now themselves bring someone in to allow an exit. As you allude to in point 2, we've proved ourselves in this league now and will presumably have quashed any prospective player's worries about joining a newly-promoted club which can only help.
Think it's fairly clear now what areas look a bit weaker when we don't have the first choice player in there, regardless of some of the 'subs' making good contributions at times. |  |
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