| Out strategy and FFP 14:50 - Jan 26 with 2344 views | Nutkins_Return |
Really think we are caught in a tough situation (actually nice one to have). I think we are such a well managed club now and we have a clear plan and strategy in place. I fully believe the strategy this year was to consolidate in the champ. Keep our powder relatively dry in terms of fees/ expenditure and to then be in a position to 'have a go' and build in next season or 2.
This year as McKenna has said you have Southampton, Leeds and Leicester come down. Very strong teams over and above normal seasons (think sh#te like Norwich). So spending big this season is less likely to work. For FFP, because it rolls over 3 year period has to be a strategy on when to go after it in terms of spending. Almost save up and spend.
Now however we have massively achieved do you go for it now!? And break strategy. I think we are being sensible and pragmatic particularly given not a lot out their striker wise and no value. Like it or not we are still 4th favourites to go up whomever we sign. I think we are still taking a sensible approach and will build and build. We will go ourselves a chance but not risk the plan! You would have to say logically a bigger spend next year where you would have Luton, Sheffield Utd and say Burnley coming down gives more opportunity.
Just my view. [Post edited 26 Jan 14:53]
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| Out strategy and FFP on 15:01 - Jan 26 with 2210 views | wrightsrightglove |
I can’t see that there’ll be a change in strategy. It’s long been recognised that, due to FFP, player trading is going to be our only route to the top and that remains the case. I think it would be massively naive to break FFP in a January window just because we’ve got a chance of promotion, many other clubs have tried this and almost been destroyed because of it. Our focus is going to be finding the Davis’ of this world and significantly increasing their value, hence why this lad from Wimbledon makes sense. One of McKenna’s greatest strengths is improving players and so we really need to be taking advantage of that.
It’ll be easy to look back if we don’t get promoted and wonder ‘what if’ but we’re never going to compete financially with the teams around us so we’re going to have to make do with unearthing those cheaper gems and letting McKenna work his magic on them. And IMO that’s absolutely what we should be doing | | | |
| Out strategy and FFP on 15:02 - Jan 26 with 2192 views | tractorboy1978 |
Expect by the end of the window we will there or thereabouts maxed out with regards to our FFP limit. There's not anymore we can do than that. | | | |
| Out strategy and FFP on 15:22 - Jan 26 with 2078 views | Vegtablue |
I don't believe we intend to leave much FFP headroom at all, to be honest.
We lost £12.6M in 21/22, some of which will have been deductible for P&S calculation. Our net spend on transfer fees in 22/23 was over £5M, which will presumably be broken down across contract lengths, and our wage bill will have increased substantially. Our net spend in 23/24 so far is over £3M, with a substantial increase in the wage bill again. Hopefully revenue has outpaced our spending, but is it more likely that it's kept pace?
My guess is we'll push close to £39m losses by the end of the window, providing we can identify targets that aren't ludicrously above market rate, and then in 24/25 we'll need to match the loss we made in 21/22 in order to remain compliant (if we're still in this division). One or two significant player sales may then fund the bulk of summer spending, or we keep the squad together and target loan additions / free transfers instead. | | | |
| Out strategy and FFP on 15:50 - Jan 26 with 1939 views | Vegtablue |
| Out strategy and FFP on 15:01 - Jan 26 by wrightsrightglove |
I can’t see that there’ll be a change in strategy. It’s long been recognised that, due to FFP, player trading is going to be our only route to the top and that remains the case. I think it would be massively naive to break FFP in a January window just because we’ve got a chance of promotion, many other clubs have tried this and almost been destroyed because of it. Our focus is going to be finding the Davis’ of this world and significantly increasing their value, hence why this lad from Wimbledon makes sense. One of McKenna’s greatest strengths is improving players and so we really need to be taking advantage of that.
It’ll be easy to look back if we don’t get promoted and wonder ‘what if’ but we’re never going to compete financially with the teams around us so we’re going to have to make do with unearthing those cheaper gems and letting McKenna work his magic on them. And IMO that’s absolutely what we should be doing |
There's an argument not to be tempted by poor-value purchases this window, even if it leaves us ill-equipped for the run-in. This has been a ridiculously hard year for automatic promotion. Without court interference, a sad conclusion for us would see next season's Championship significantly weaker. Sheff Utd, Burnley and Luton would likely drop with far worse squads than Leicester, Southampton and Leeds had. Summer players sales wouldn't bolster parachute payments in the same way, so the likelihood of all three breaking Championship records would be much slimmer. West Brom's squad would also be even more untenable, if they didn't go up in the playoffs.
If we accepted longer odds in the playoffs this season and declined ludicrous player valuations by unhelpful January sellers, we would be better placed to add to the squad in the summer without needing to sell a star first. Hirst may be fit for the playoffs too, although that's probably clutching. McKenna would need to be bought in for at least one more season. | | | |
| Out strategy and FFP on 16:25 - Jan 26 with 1809 views | Wacko |
Can we sell Ed Sheeran? | |
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| Out strategy and FFP on 17:09 - Jan 26 with 1698 views | xrayspecs |
| Out strategy and FFP on 15:22 - Jan 26 by Vegtablue |
I don't believe we intend to leave much FFP headroom at all, to be honest.
We lost £12.6M in 21/22, some of which will have been deductible for P&S calculation. Our net spend on transfer fees in 22/23 was over £5M, which will presumably be broken down across contract lengths, and our wage bill will have increased substantially. Our net spend in 23/24 so far is over £3M, with a substantial increase in the wage bill again. Hopefully revenue has outpaced our spending, but is it more likely that it's kept pace?
My guess is we'll push close to £39m losses by the end of the window, providing we can identify targets that aren't ludicrously above market rate, and then in 24/25 we'll need to match the loss we made in 21/22 in order to remain compliant (if we're still in this division). One or two significant player sales may then fund the bulk of summer spending, or we keep the squad together and target loan additions / free transfers instead. |
This.
GC are not here to mess about, they want us to get promoted ASAP. By all accounts we have a little headroom this window, but it is clear we are still shopping in the £1-2m basket and it is really hard to find players who can improve us in the short term at that price point. | | | |
| Out strategy and FFP on 17:35 - Jan 26 with 1628 views | jayessess |
| Out strategy and FFP on 17:09 - Jan 26 by xrayspecs |
This.
GC are not here to mess about, they want us to get promoted ASAP. By all accounts we have a little headroom this window, but it is clear we are still shopping in the £1-2m basket and it is really hard to find players who can improve us in the short term at that price point. |
Think the reality is that as a non-parachute club you end up sooner or later with a wage bill that's roughly maxing out your allowed losses under FFP and your transfer spend is funded by sales.
Our running costs probably haven't quite reached that maximum level yet (but will do if we keep competing at the top end of the division and end having to pay wages commensurate with that) but we haven't made any sales. [Post edited 26 Jan 17:48]
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| Out strategy and FFP on 17:43 - Jan 26 with 1600 views | RobTheMonk |
Ultimately, however this season goes we’ve done exceptionally well and also will have a platform to spend next season. Automatically go up and you can spend more. Playoffs equal money.
We’re in a really good position going into next season. |  | | |
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| Out strategy and FFP on 17:45 - Jan 26 with 1591 views | portmanking |
| Out strategy and FFP on 17:43 - Jan 26 by RobTheMonk |
Ultimately, however this season goes we’ve done exceptionally well and also will have a platform to spend next season. Automatically go up and you can spend more. Playoffs equal money.
We’re in a really good position going into next season. |
I'm not sure that's the case. I think 2024/25 would require us to cut our cloth accordingly to have significant funds to spend. No promotion = no more Leif IMO. | | | |
| Out strategy and FFP on 17:57 - Jan 26 with 1545 views | Nutkins_Return |
| Out strategy and FFP on 17:09 - Jan 26 by xrayspecs |
This.
GC are not here to mess about, they want us to get promoted ASAP. By all accounts we have a little headroom this window, but it is clear we are still shopping in the £1-2m basket and it is really hard to find players who can improve us in the short term at that price point. |
I think everyone is agreed they will spend the max. Its just when. Now and get less for your buck Vs better opposition (but well placed in league) or in the summer where there is better value and likely reduced level coming down. This is simplistic view of it I appreciate but you take the point. | | | |
| Out strategy and FFP on 18:00 - Jan 26 with 1533 views | Nutkins_Return |
| Out strategy and FFP on 17:45 - Jan 26 by portmanking |
I'm not sure that's the case. I think 2024/25 would require us to cut our cloth accordingly to have significant funds to spend. No promotion = no more Leif IMO. |
I think this is likely. You would have to think that would give us a sizeable war chest though. If Wharton was valued more than £18.5m I would like to think it would have to be in the same sort of region. | | | |
| Out strategy and FFP on 18:03 - Jan 26 with 1527 views | portmanking |
| Out strategy and FFP on 18:00 - Jan 26 by Nutkins_Return |
I think this is likely. You would have to think that would give us a sizeable war chest though. If Wharton was valued more than £18.5m I would like to think it would have to be in the same sort of region. |
Yep, you could argue someone like Woolfie may be dispensable too if we could get £10m+ for him too.
Sell Davis for £15m-£20m and Woolfie for £10m and we'd be well set to strengthen for a year or two. | | | |
| Out strategy and FFP on 18:12 - Jan 26 with 1471 views | Vegtablue |
| Out strategy and FFP on 15:50 - Jan 26 by Vegtablue |
There's an argument not to be tempted by poor-value purchases this window, even if it leaves us ill-equipped for the run-in. This has been a ridiculously hard year for automatic promotion. Without court interference, a sad conclusion for us would see next season's Championship significantly weaker. Sheff Utd, Burnley and Luton would likely drop with far worse squads than Leicester, Southampton and Leeds had. Summer players sales wouldn't bolster parachute payments in the same way, so the likelihood of all three breaking Championship records would be much slimmer. West Brom's squad would also be even more untenable, if they didn't go up in the playoffs.
If we accepted longer odds in the playoffs this season and declined ludicrous player valuations by unhelpful January sellers, we would be better placed to add to the squad in the summer without needing to sell a star first. Hirst may be fit for the playoffs too, although that's probably clutching. McKenna would need to be bought in for at least one more season. |
Sorry Nutkins I've copied your OP here almost verbatim 😅 I will read better going forwards. My only concern with this strategy is, as ever, would McKenna feel sufficiently supported and would it negatively affect our prospects of retaining him? | | | |
| Out strategy and FFP on 18:29 - Jan 26 with 1430 views | Mookamoo |
| Out strategy and FFP on 18:00 - Jan 26 by Nutkins_Return |
I think this is likely. You would have to think that would give us a sizeable war chest though. If Wharton was valued more than £18.5m I would like to think it would have to be in the same sort of region. |
Shame, but the only real way to keep the bulk of the squad together would be to sell Davis.
Woolfenden will probably want to go if we didn't go up and there was interest from a PL team.
We've also got to accept Hladky will be wanting a wage we can't afford with Walton also under contract. |  | | |
| Out strategy and FFP on 18:38 - Jan 26 with 1406 views | Xatticus |
We’ll be a more attractive destination next summer for pending free agents than we were a year ago as well. We’ve certainly found some gems in the past on free transfers and it shouldn’t be too difficult to entice targets next year given our style of play and results this year.
Lost in all of this though is that we are nearly locked into the top 6 at worst. I have a great deal of confidence in McKenna’s ability to give us a tactical edge if we end up in the playoffs. | | | |
| Out strategy and FFP on 19:09 - Jan 26 with 1337 views | Nutkins_Return |
| Out strategy and FFP on 18:03 - Jan 26 by portmanking |
Yep, you could argue someone like Woolfie may be dispensable too if we could get £10m+ for him too.
Sell Davis for £15m-£20m and Woolfie for £10m and we'd be well set to strengthen for a year or two. |
I've said the same about Woolf. It's a position we could replace with less damage if we could get get money. Elkan Baggott pathway. I would absolutely be open to it as sad as I would be to see him go! Love Woolf and he's been great. I actually think it would be good for him and his career to come out of his comfort zone. I don't think he would want to leave though. If anything holds him back it might be that real drive to do what he needs to do to get to another level. I genuinely hope he proves me wrong. He has the talent. | | | |
| Out strategy and FFP on 19:10 - Jan 26 with 1333 views | Nutkins_Return |
| Out strategy and FFP on 18:12 - Jan 26 by Vegtablue |
Sorry Nutkins I've copied your OP here almost verbatim 😅 I will read better going forwards. My only concern with this strategy is, as ever, would McKenna feel sufficiently supported and would it negatively affect our prospects of retaining him? |
Haha I didnt like to say when I read your post. But yes we are on the same page I I exactly agree with your concern (I should have written it and passed it off as my own) 🤣 | | | |
| Out strategy and FFP on 19:14 - Jan 26 with 1322 views | Nutkins_Return |
| Out strategy and FFP on 18:38 - Jan 26 by Xatticus |
We’ll be a more attractive destination next summer for pending free agents than we were a year ago as well. We’ve certainly found some gems in the past on free transfers and it shouldn’t be too difficult to entice targets next year given our style of play and results this year.
Lost in all of this though is that we are nearly locked into the top 6 at worst. I have a great deal of confidence in McKenna’s ability to give us a tactical edge if we end up in the playoffs. |
Yes but Leeds will be formidable won't they (or Southampton). I also think Coventry are flying. They have basically done the model of sell two players for huge money (and likely to get another £10-15 million if Gyokeres moves soon or summer). Taken time to Gel their new players but they have gone from a good team made up of loans to a good team of their own paid for players. Very good team and manager.
We will be a test for anyone. But not sure how we could be too confident against Leeds based on the games we had. [Post edited 26 Jan 19:40]
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| Out strategy and FFP on 20:07 - Jan 26 with 1192 views | brad548ye |
Regardless of who we do or don't manage the sign my main worry is losing KM. Its almost been a negative that we've done so well. I say this because it's made the club and more importantly KM a lot higher profile than if we'd have been just doing ok in the Championship. Now I'm worried that if we don't make it to the Prem this time around that we'll be very vulnerable to him being poached by a top 8 prem club. I don't think he'd leave for a low level prem team but top 8 i think he'd go for it and the compensation wouldn't be an issue for those clubs. Of course i hope i'm wrong but its a worry. | | | |
| Out strategy and FFP on 22:35 - Jan 26 with 1005 views | Nutkins_Return |
| Out strategy and FFP on 20:07 - Jan 26 by brad548ye |
Regardless of who we do or don't manage the sign my main worry is losing KM. Its almost been a negative that we've done so well. I say this because it's made the club and more importantly KM a lot higher profile than if we'd have been just doing ok in the Championship. Now I'm worried that if we don't make it to the Prem this time around that we'll be very vulnerable to him being poached by a top 8 prem club. I don't think he'd leave for a low level prem team but top 8 i think he'd go for it and the compensation wouldn't be an issue for those clubs. Of course i hope i'm wrong but its a worry. |
'its almost a negative we've done so well'. It's not and never will be. If we weren't doing so well the love for McKenna would be quite so high or the worry so much.
You just have to enjoy the ride. He feels the love and I think has a real affinity for the club and project. The reality is he does appear to be the real deal and will go to a bigger club one day. All we can do is enjoy it. | | | |
| Out strategy and FFP on 22:44 - Jan 26 with 975 views | NthQldITFC |
| Out strategy and FFP on 18:12 - Jan 26 by Vegtablue |
Sorry Nutkins I've copied your OP here almost verbatim 😅 I will read better going forwards. My only concern with this strategy is, as ever, would McKenna feel sufficiently supported and would it negatively affect our prospects of retaining him? |
I reckon he would be happy to go through that scenario here for a year because (amongst other things) it would be an ideal step change in his career - a summer period with high level Championship funding, freedom to add to and enhance his squad in an environment he knows well and has created himself, with great and patient backing.
It would in no way be (or be seen as) a stagnation to have a second season in the Championship, but this time starting as a favourite for promotion. It's perfect for him on that basis alone.
I think he'd expect to be managing in the Premier League in 25/26 though. |  |
| # WE ARE STEALING THE FUTURE FROM OUR CHILDREN --- WE MUST CHANGE COURSE # | | Poll: | It's driving me nuts |
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