| League calculator 13:26 - Mar 4 with 1611 views | whymark4lazio0 |
My attempt. Conclusion- it's going to be crazy. It's 2 from 3 from the current top 3 for automatic promotion. Chance that we get promoted- auto = 2/3 (overstated?), play-off 1/4 (understated)= 67% + 25% = 92%. Rounded = 90%.
| Team | Pld | W | D | L | F | A | W | D | L | F | A | Pts | GD |
| Leicester City | 46 | 18 | 1 | 4 | 47 | 14 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 44 | 23 | 103 | 54 |
| Leeds United | 46 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 54 | 13 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 39 | 20 | 102 | 60 |
| Ipswich Town | 46 | 17 | 5 | 1 | 57 | 30 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 35 | 24 | 101 | 38 |
| Southampton | 46 | 17 | 2 | 4 | 56 | 22 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 36 | 32 | 95 | 38 |
| Ipswich Town | 2 | 1 | Bristol City |
| Leeds United | 3 | 0 | Stoke City |
| Sunderland | 1 | 1 | Leicester City |
| Southampton | 2 | 0 | Preston North End |
| Sheffield Wednesday | 1 | 1 | Leeds United |
| Cardiff City | 0 | 2 | Ipswich Town |
| Hull City | 1 | 1 | Leicester City |
| Southampton | 2 | 0 | Sunderland |
| Leicester City | 2 | 1 | Southampton |
| Ipswich Town | 2 | 0 | Sheffield Wednesday |
| Leeds United | 3 | 0 | Millwall |
| Blackburn Rovers | 1 | 2 | Ipswich Town |
| Bristol City | 1 | 2 | Leicester City |
| Southampton | 3 | 0 | Middlesbrough |
| Watford | 2 | 2 | Leeds United |
| Ipswich Town | 2 | 2 | Southampton |
| Leeds United | 2 | 0 | Hull City |
| Leicester City | 3 | 0 | Norwich City |
| Blackburn Rovers | 1 | 2 | Southampton |
| Coventry City | 1 | 3 | Leeds United |
| Leicester City | 3 | 0 | Birmingham City |
| Norwich City | 2 | 2 | Ipswich Town |
| Leeds United | 3 | 0 | Sunderland |
| Millwall | 0 | 2 | Leicester City |
| Southampton | 3 | 0 | Coventry City |
| Ipswich Town | 2 | 0 | Watford |
| Ipswich Town | 2 | 0 | Middlesbrough |
| Leeds United | 2 | 0 | Blackburn Rovers |
| Plymouth Argyle | 1 | 1 | Leicester City |
| Southampton | 3 | 0 | Watford |
| Cardiff City | 1 | 2 | Southampton |
30th April 2024 | | Coventry City | 1 | 2 | Ipswich Town |
| Leicester City | 2 | 0 | West Bromwich Albion |
| Middlesbrough | 0 | 3 | Leeds United |
| Hull City | 2 | 1 | Ipswich Town |
29th April 2024 | | Preston North End | 1 | 1 | Leicester City |
| Queens Park Rangers | 0 | 3 | Leeds United |
| Southampton | 2 | 0 | Stoke City |
4th May 2024 | | Ipswich Town | 3 | 0 | Huddersfield Town |
| Leeds United | 3 | 1 | Southampton |
| Leicester City | 2 | 0 | Blackburn Rovers |
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| League calculator on 13:34 - Mar 4 with 1543 views | GlasgowBlue |
Need that Leeds/ Southampton game on the final day to be a draw. |  |
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| League calculator on 13:37 - Mar 4 with 1506 views | Illinoisblue |
| League calculator on 13:34 - Mar 4 by GlasgowBlue |
Need that Leeds/ Southampton game on the final day to be a draw. |
That one looks massive. Ideally they’ll be scrapping for second place and we’ve already secured the title. |  |
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| League calculator on 14:00 - Mar 4 with 1435 views | BiGDonnie |
When will people learn.
If we ain't top two, we don't wanna see it. |  |
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| League calculator on 16:12 - Mar 4 with 1243 views | ITFCMonk |
Why a loss against Hull? |  | | |
| League calculator on 16:54 - Mar 4 with 1173 views | Reus30 |
Try again, we ain't losing for the rest of the season. |  | | |
| League calculator on 17:00 - Mar 4 with 1150 views | gainsboroughblue |
Every game is huge but 1 April looks absolutely brutal.
Could be momentum switches in all manner of directions. |  |
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| League calculator on 17:30 - Mar 4 with 1071 views | whymark4lazio0 |
| League calculator on 16:12 - Mar 4 by ITFCMonk |
Why a loss against Hull? |
2 tough away games in a row (Coventry and Hull).Both of them likely to be in battle for top 6. Thought about putting them both down as draws. Decided to be more optimistic - win and a loss. I think it's the only loss I'm predicting. | |
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| League calculator on 17:43 - Mar 4 with 1022 views | Vegtablue |
I don't think Leeds will hit 100 points. 👀 | | | |
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| League calculator on 17:44 - Mar 4 with 1016 views | MK1 |
No way we get 101 points and don't go up. |  | | |
| League calculator on 18:00 - Mar 4 with 955 views | You_Bloo_Right |
With respect I know this is wrong.
How do I know this?
Because I previously had a go at the league calculator and I too had us reaching 101 points but sitting third. And more importantly, I have a history of being rubbish at this sort of predcition game. |  |
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| League calculator on 18:16 - Mar 4 with 907 views | Samuelowen88 |
Hate to be the pedant, but you can't just add the percentages like that. |  |
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| League calculator on 19:37 - Mar 4 with 808 views | BlueBadger |
Now go away and do it properly |  |
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| League calculator on 19:51 - Mar 4 with 775 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
| League calculator on 18:00 - Mar 4 by You_Bloo_Right |
With respect I know this is wrong.
How do I know this?
Because I previously had a go at the league calculator and I too had us reaching 101 points but sitting third. And more importantly, I have a history of being rubbish at this sort of predcition game. |
Was thinking the same.
I think it is something like 67% automatic (if that is accurate) means a 33% chance not going up automatically. In that scenario we are definitely in the play offs with a supposed 1 in 4 chance of promotion (probably slightly higher) giving a 75% of the 33% that we do not go up. This is 24.75%.
So it would give a 75.25% chance of promotion.
If the addition of percentages worked and each match in the play offs was a 50:50, we would have a 50% chance of winning the first match and another 50% chance of winning the final if we did get through. This would give 50% + 50% = 100% chance of any team in the play offs going up! Or 50% chance failing in the semi-finals + 50% chance failing in the final = 100% failing (so none go up!) |  |
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| League calculator on 20:15 - Mar 4 with 749 views | whymark4lazio0 |
| League calculator on 18:16 - Mar 4 by Samuelowen88 |
Hate to be the pedant, but you can't just add the percentages like that. |
Thanks you are right. Schoolboy error.
If Ipswich have 67% chance of getting promoted automatically and 25% through play-offs, the chances of not getting promoted =
(1 - .67) x (1 - .75) = .33 x .25 = 24.75%
Therefore chance of getting promoted 1 -.2475 = 75.25% | |
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| League calculator on 20:19 - Mar 4 with 739 views | whymark4lazio0 |
| League calculator on 19:51 - Mar 4 by Nthsuffolkblue |
Was thinking the same.
I think it is something like 67% automatic (if that is accurate) means a 33% chance not going up automatically. In that scenario we are definitely in the play offs with a supposed 1 in 4 chance of promotion (probably slightly higher) giving a 75% of the 33% that we do not go up. This is 24.75%.
So it would give a 75.25% chance of promotion.
If the addition of percentages worked and each match in the play offs was a 50:50, we would have a 50% chance of winning the first match and another 50% chance of winning the final if we did get through. This would give 50% + 50% = 100% chance of any team in the play offs going up! Or 50% chance failing in the semi-finals + 50% chance failing in the final = 100% failing (so none go up!) |
Sorry posted my correction before reading your clearer explanation. At least we came to the same conclusion (IF my assumptions are correct). | |
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