| Relative run-ins 12:04 - Mar 4 with 3693 views | Charlie_pl_baxter |
Just took a look at the run-in for the top four. Not that scientific but by adding up current league position of opponents Leeds have the easiest run in followed by us then Leicester then Southampton. We all play at least one other team in the top four but Southampton have to play both Leicester and Leeds.
I'm thinking if we keep a decent run to the Southampton game and win it could be pretty decisive. |  |
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| Relative run-ins on 12:06 - Mar 4 with 3380 views | JakeITFC |
A shame that Southampton nicked that goal late on at the weekend as we probably could have cheered them on a bit more easily against Leicester and Leeds.
I've said for a while that we probably need to win 3/4 of our tough run of Saints, Norwich, Coventry and Hull (whilst picking up expected points elsewhere) to be in the automatic mix come the end, and I stand by it. Crazy to be in back-to-back promotion seasons with record points needed! |  | | |
| Relative run-ins on 12:14 - Mar 4 with 3309 views | tractorboy1978 |
I've thrown all logic, form and league positions out of the window. It sounds trite but it really is one game at a time and anything can happen. |  | | |
| Relative run-ins on 12:15 - Mar 4 with 3301 views | ITFC_Forever |
| Relative run-ins on 12:06 - Mar 4 by JakeITFC |
A shame that Southampton nicked that goal late on at the weekend as we probably could have cheered them on a bit more easily against Leicester and Leeds.
I've said for a while that we probably need to win 3/4 of our tough run of Saints, Norwich, Coventry and Hull (whilst picking up expected points elsewhere) to be in the automatic mix come the end, and I stand by it. Crazy to be in back-to-back promotion seasons with record points needed! |
Yep, we're going to need to take 8-10 points from those four games and pick up the expected points elsewhere.
Any other season, we would have a bit of a margin for error now - another five wins would be more than enough.
Not this season - another 7-8 wins at least still required. |  |
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| Relative run-ins on 12:31 - Mar 4 with 3143 views | Herbivore |
| Relative run-ins on 12:14 - Mar 4 by tractorboy1978 |
I've thrown all logic, form and league positions out of the window. It sounds trite but it really is one game at a time and anything can happen. |
Yep, this. Leeds and Leicester have just dropped points to sides who have been in the bottom four almost all season, so even the easier fixtures on paper are anything but. Prepare well for each game, aim to perform at our best, and the results should come more often than not. It's worked well for us so far over the last 18 months or so. All this talk of four sides getting 100+ points looks very fanciful to me, too many sides with a lot to play for and even the bottom half sides at this level have enough quality to trouble anyone on their day. |  |
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| Relative run-ins on 12:36 - Mar 4 with 3106 views | gordon |
Personally think all four teams are going to be dropping points here and there unexpectedly as we get closer to the end of the season and none of them will get that close to 100 points.
EG Sheffield Wednesday are on a great run (even though second bottom), and will definitely give us and Leeds a good game, I'd be very surprised if they lost both matches. [Post edited 4 Mar 12:38]
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| Relative run-ins on 12:46 - Mar 4 with 3012 views | E_I_E_I_E_I_O |
| Relative run-ins on 12:15 - Mar 4 by ITFC_Forever |
Yep, we're going to need to take 8-10 points from those four games and pick up the expected points elsewhere.
Any other season, we would have a bit of a margin for error now - another five wins would be more than enough.
Not this season - another 7-8 wins at least still required. |
Some championship seasons 79 points get you 2nd. That would be 1 more win and 1 more draw. Mental. | | | |
| Relative run-ins on 12:51 - Mar 4 with 2942 views | Illinoisblue |
| Relative run-ins on 12:15 - Mar 4 by ITFC_Forever |
Yep, we're going to need to take 8-10 points from those four games and pick up the expected points elsewhere.
Any other season, we would have a bit of a margin for error now - another five wins would be more than enough.
Not this season - another 7-8 wins at least still required. |
7 wins 2 draws 2 defeats from 11 games would be a heck of an effort given our tough April fixtures. And yet 98 points might not be enough for automatics. Insane. |  |
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| Relative run-ins on 12:55 - Mar 4 with 2884 views | Herbivore |
| Relative run-ins on 12:36 - Mar 4 by gordon |
Personally think all four teams are going to be dropping points here and there unexpectedly as we get closer to the end of the season and none of them will get that close to 100 points.
EG Sheffield Wednesday are on a great run (even though second bottom), and will definitely give us and Leeds a good game, I'd be very surprised if they lost both matches. [Post edited 4 Mar 12:38]
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Much as I am loathe to doubt you after your oracle pick in the Leicester v QPR game, I still reckon it's going to take 97 or 98 points to finish second. Our current PPG over the 46 game season will see us on 98 or 99 points and Leicester on over 100. Whilst pressure does funny things, last year we got better the more the pressure was on and put in a record breaking run to seal promotion. It'll be harder to do that this season but I'm not sure I see us or the others producing a last 11 games in worse form than they've managed over the first 35. Leicester and Saints are definitely in a tricky moment and it'll be interesting to see how Leeds bounce back, but I do think we're going to see at least three sides finish on 90+ points and I reckon we might see three sides with 95+. I hope you're right though and it doesn't take quite as much as that as we're in an excellent position if so. | |
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| Relative run-ins on 13:02 - Mar 4 with 2828 views | bluelagos |
Your logic fails for me as surely you actually want to be playing midtable sides.
Anyone within striking distance of relegation and or the playoffs is tougher than a team with little to play for. |  |
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| Relative run-ins on 13:09 - Mar 4 with 2756 views | Charlie_pl_baxter |
| Relative run-ins on 13:02 - Mar 4 by bluelagos |
Your logic fails for me as surely you actually want to be playing midtable sides.
Anyone within striking distance of relegation and or the playoffs is tougher than a team with little to play for. |
Yeah I thought of that but far too lazy to do the homework! As I said not that scientific. You could also try to factor in home vs away. Maybe if I'm bored this evening. | |
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| Relative run-ins on 13:20 - Mar 4 with 2683 views | gordon |
| Relative run-ins on 12:55 - Mar 4 by Herbivore |
Much as I am loathe to doubt you after your oracle pick in the Leicester v QPR game, I still reckon it's going to take 97 or 98 points to finish second. Our current PPG over the 46 game season will see us on 98 or 99 points and Leicester on over 100. Whilst pressure does funny things, last year we got better the more the pressure was on and put in a record breaking run to seal promotion. It'll be harder to do that this season but I'm not sure I see us or the others producing a last 11 games in worse form than they've managed over the first 35. Leicester and Saints are definitely in a tricky moment and it'll be interesting to see how Leeds bounce back, but I do think we're going to see at least three sides finish on 90+ points and I reckon we might see three sides with 95+. I hope you're right though and it doesn't take quite as much as that as we're in an excellent position if so. |
Probably not too far apart from what I reckon - I think of the three teams in the top three, Leicester will have the worst end to the season and it'll end up very close between the top three on eg 93-95pts and Southampton on 88-90pts. | | | |
| Relative run-ins on 13:32 - Mar 4 with 2590 views | Pinewoodblue |
| Relative run-ins on 13:20 - Mar 4 by gordon |
Probably not too far apart from what I reckon - I think of the three teams in the top three, Leicester will have the worst end to the season and it'll end up very close between the top three on eg 93-95pts and Southampton on 88-90pts. |
We will have a Cheltenham, or Fleetwood moment, for sure. |  |
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| Relative run-ins on 13:38 - Mar 4 with 2557 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
It’s getting to that point in the season where it becomes very difficult to call a result correctly. Who would have had Huddersfield and QPR taking any points on Saturday. These teams are fighting for their lives now, which is why I think the upcoming Weds game is going to be much tougher than it looks on paper (albeit most of their wins have come at home).
I see Leeds as more likely to slip up than Leicester, I think the foxes will sort themselves out. Leeds rely on their pace and power on the counter attack and have struggled with low block teams (we’ve done better here probably from our L1 experience). Southampton obviously look a little fragile at the back, and like us seem to rely on outscoring teams. Whatever happens there’s going to be plenty more surprise results. | | | |
| Relative run-ins on 14:48 - Mar 4 with 2279 views | Battersea_Blue |
Norwich, Hull and Coventry away are tough fixtures, but last season we had the same feelings about Derby, Peterborough and Barnsley away in the run in . .  | | | |
| Relative run-ins on 15:07 - Mar 4 with 2219 views | Charlie_pl_baxter |
That would seem to swap us with Leicester then if I read it correctly. In other words we have the hardest run in of the top three but better than Southampton. Still don't think this will satisfy Lagos's point as it doesn't account for mid-table lethargy or the motivating factors of being close to play offs or the dreaded drop. | |
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| Relative run-ins on 15:08 - Mar 4 with 2212 views | Exiled2Surrey |
| Relative run-ins on 14:48 - Mar 4 by Battersea_Blue |
Norwich, Hull and Coventry away are tough fixtures, but last season we had the same feelings about Derby, Peterborough and Barnsley away in the run in . . |
I agree, but:
- I am not so afraid of Hull away - their home form is pretty meh
- Norwich away - have to take that one in isolation
- Coventry away - not sure if they will have Sheaf back? O'Hare seems to have come off the boil slightly and they have a cup run to manage
I can see 7 points there | | | |
| Relative run-ins on 15:41 - Mar 4 with 2088 views | Kropotkin123 |
I came on here to post that too! |  |
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| Relative run-ins on 16:16 - Mar 4 with 1957 views | bluefunk |
| Relative run-ins on 15:41 - Mar 4 by Kropotkin123 |
I came on here to post that too! |
I keep that tab open all the time!! I’m not obsessed or anything…… |  | | |
| Relative run-ins on 16:20 - Mar 4 with 1933 views | bluefunk |
| Relative run-ins on 15:07 - Mar 4 by Charlie_pl_baxter |
That would seem to swap us with Leicester then if I read it correctly. In other words we have the hardest run in of the top three but better than Southampton. Still don't think this will satisfy Lagos's point as it doesn't account for mid-table lethargy or the motivating factors of being close to play offs or the dreaded drop. |
It’s purely backward looking in that it takes the average points per game of your opponent to date, either home or away depending on where the game will be played. If you look at the final column it has the next 4 games rating of the opponent, which makes good reading for us but not for Leicester, for example. Hovering over the number opens a small window with the list of games. You could waste hours analysing this…….( I defined haven’t, no, not at all.) | | | |
| Relative run-ins on 16:57 - Mar 4 with 1816 views | gainsboroughblue |
It's football silly season from here on in. There is not a single side in the division who aren't either having their eyes on promotion, play-offs, avoiding relegation or looking over their shoulders. Rotherham are probably the only side in the division who can say with certainty what their outcome is.
It's going to throw up a lot more Leicester v QPR's in unlikely places. We just need to plough on.
I still have trauma thinking back to 98-99. We seemed to have 2nd place in the bag and contrived to lose 1-2 at home to Crewe on the penultimate home game. I think a defeat at Birmingham followed and it was all on the last day. We beat Sheff U comfortably but bloody Bradford went and won at Molineux. |  |
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| Relative run-ins on 19:16 - Mar 4 with 1609 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Relative run-ins on 13:02 - Mar 4 by bluelagos |
Your logic fails for me as surely you actually want to be playing midtable sides.
Anyone within striking distance of relegation and or the playoffs is tougher than a team with little to play for. |
Only Watford and Sunderland have nothing ti play for. Any team above them have a chance of the play offs and any teams below them are in danger of relegation. |  |
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| Relative run-ins on 19:41 - Mar 4 with 1535 views | Herbivore |
| Relative run-ins on 19:16 - Mar 4 by GlasgowBlue |
Only Watford and Sunderland have nothing ti play for. Any team above them have a chance of the play offs and any teams below them are in danger of relegation. |
I'd be inclined to add Cardiff, Brizzle, and Boro to that group as well. We've got to play four of the five smack bang in the middle teams still. | |
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| Relative run-ins on 19:42 - Mar 4 with 1521 views | Charlie_pl_baxter |
| Relative run-ins on 19:41 - Mar 4 by Herbivore |
I'd be inclined to add Cardiff, Brizzle, and Boro to that group as well. We've got to play four of the five smack bang in the middle teams still. |
This group will get larger as we approach the end of the season as well | |
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| Relative run-ins on 19:53 - Mar 4 with 1478 views | withyblue |
| Relative run-ins on 13:02 - Mar 4 by bluelagos |
Your logic fails for me as surely you actually want to be playing midtable sides.
Anyone within striking distance of relegation and or the playoffs is tougher than a team with little to play for. |
It is a logical hypothesis but I wonder if is actually true and borne out by results. During the many championship run-ins with nothing to play for that we have endured over the last 15 years, I can't think of a season where we were particularly poorer during that period. I think our results were generally of continued mediocrity, throwing up good performances here and there.
I expect a Newcastle team on the verge of promotion might have thought mid-table Ipswich would be an easy prospect in April 2017, but we beat them 3-1. Similarly, a Reading team needing to win to confirm survival in April 2018 might have thought mid-table, managerless Ipswich would be a more straightforward home match than others. But we beat them 4-0. [Post edited 4 Mar 19:55]
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