| Prediction time. How many Tory MPs after tomorrow? 12:04 - Jul 3 with 5305 views | Pinewoodblue |
My uneducated guess, based on the assumption they will do better than some predictions, 125. |  |
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| Prediction time. How many Tory MPs after tomorrow? on 17:00 - Jul 3 with 1755 views | baxterbasics |
| Prediction time. How many Tory MPs after tomorrow? on 16:58 - Jul 3 by blueasfook |
430 Labour
108 Tory
58 Lib Dem
26 SNP
15 Reform UK
7 Green Party
6 Other |
Can't see Reform getting that many.. 5 at most I reckon |  |
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| Prediction time. How many Tory MPs after tomorrow? on 17:02 - Jul 3 with 1732 views | PassionNotAnger |
Less than 75, I think the conceding of the loss by senior Tory figures over the last couple of days will backfire and demotivate some of the core to actually bother voting and energize the rest to genuinely think it might happen, especially amongst the Reform/Lib Dem voters in those marginal seats .
I think it might be a great end to the week (and 14 years of self serving corrupt and incompetent government ) [Post edited 3 Jul 2024 17:03]
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| Prediction time. How many Tory MPs after tomorrow? on 17:04 - Jul 3 with 1733 views | blueasfook |
| Prediction time. How many Tory MPs after tomorrow? on 17:00 - Jul 3 by baxterbasics |
Can't see Reform getting that many.. 5 at most I reckon |
BBC poll has them competing with the tories for second and above the lib dems.
Lab 39%
Con 21%
Ref 16%
LD 11%
I think the problem for Reform will be their votes will be spread out and not enough to win them individual seats. In a PR system, they'd certainly have a number of seats in the new parliament based on the above poll. |  |
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| Prediction time. How many Tory MPs after tomorrow? on 17:06 - Jul 3 with 1709 views | Kievthegreat |
| Prediction time. How many Tory MPs after tomorrow? on 17:04 - Jul 3 by blueasfook |
BBC poll has them competing with the tories for second and above the lib dems.
Lab 39%
Con 21%
Ref 16%
LD 11%
I think the problem for Reform will be their votes will be spread out and not enough to win them individual seats. In a PR system, they'd certainly have a number of seats in the new parliament based on the above poll. |
FPTP doesn't just need votes, but concentration of votes:
Last Yougov MRP has broadly similar vote shares, but Reform just spread too thin. [Post edited 3 Jul 2024 17:06]
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| Prediction time. How many Tory MPs after tomorrow? on 17:06 - Jul 3 with 1698 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Prediction time. How many Tory MPs after tomorrow? on 13:36 - Jul 3 by Blueschev |
Too many. |
I hope that good people like Tobias Ellwood keeps his seat. We will need effective opposition and I'd rather that came from the centre right rather than the likes of Patel and Braverman. |  |
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| Prediction time. How many Tory MPs after tomorrow? on 17:09 - Jul 3 with 1684 views | Kievthegreat |
| Prediction time. How many Tory MPs after tomorrow? on 17:06 - Jul 3 by GlasgowBlue |
I hope that good people like Tobias Ellwood keeps his seat. We will need effective opposition and I'd rather that came from the centre right rather than the likes of Patel and Braverman. |
Best case scenario is still for Tories to finish in 3rd place and for Lib Dems to finish second. Then there is no chance of the swivel eyed loons you mentioned leading the opposition. | | | |
| Prediction time. How many Tory MPs after tomorrow? on 17:20 - Jul 3 with 1665 views | Blueschev |
| Prediction time. How many Tory MPs after tomorrow? on 17:06 - Jul 3 by GlasgowBlue |
I hope that good people like Tobias Ellwood keeps his seat. We will need effective opposition and I'd rather that came from the centre right rather than the likes of Patel and Braverman. |
I'm not convinced the Tories will take quite the tonking predicted. A low turnout tends to work to their advantage, and I have spoken to many people who don't plan to vote at all.
I don't think reform will do as well as expected either. Farage is their only name, and most of the candidates are loonies on the fringes of the far right. Having said that I would expect Farage to be the de facto parliamentary leader of the Tory right should he win in Clacton tomorrow. |  | | |
| Prediction time. How many Tory MPs after tomorrow? on 17:22 - Jul 3 with 1662 views | GeoffSentence |
| Prediction time. How many Tory MPs after tomorrow? on 12:18 - Jul 3 by bluelagos |
Just give us a #Torywipeout please.
Anything under 100 would be wonderful, fewer than the liberals would see them proper fcked.
Estimate - 150 odd. |
If the lib dems could become the official opposition I'd be delighted. We might finally get some reasonable debate and action in the HoC not dominated by culture wars, hating foreigners and making the rich nd powerful even more rich and powerful. |  |
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| Prediction time. How many Tory MPs after tomorrow? on 17:43 - Jul 3 with 1645 views | DJR |
Sky News You Gov poll predicting the largest majority ever on the strength of 39% of the vote. |  | | |
| Prediction time. How many Tory MPs after tomorrow? on 05:54 - Jul 4 with 1553 views | tractordownsouth |
Lab 386
Con 159
LD: 60
SNP: 18
Green: 4
Plaid: 3
Ref: 2
Northern Independence Party: 0 [Post edited 4 Jul 2024 5:57]
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| Prediction time. How many Tory MPs after tomorrow? on 06:10 - Jul 4 with 1546 views | LegendofthePhoenix |
105 |  |
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| Prediction time. How many Tory MPs after tomorrow? on 06:10 - Jul 4 with 1540 views | Churchman |
94 which on the basis they represent 1% of the population is about 87 too many.
They’re finished. |  | | |
| Prediction time. How many Tory MPs after tomorrow? on 06:30 - Jul 4 with 1533 views | ElephantintheRoom |
I’d be surprised if there’s less than 200 as the urge to vote Conservative seems irresistible in large swathes of the voting population. But at least we can dream for a day. | |
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| Prediction time. How many Tory MPs after tomorrow? on 07:28 - Jul 4 with 1508 views | Pinewoodblue |
| Prediction time. How many Tory MPs after tomorrow? on 06:30 - Jul 4 by ElephantintheRoom |
I’d be surprised if there’s less than 200 as the urge to vote Conservative seems irresistible in large swathes of the voting population. But at least we can dream for a day. |
You are way out of line with everyone else but who knows you might be right for once.
The traditional Tory vote is split by Reform, add the two together and within 2% of predicted Labour vote.
Time will tell. | |
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| Prediction time. How many Tory MPs after tomorrow? on 08:04 - Jul 4 with 1470 views | bluelagos |
| Prediction time. How many Tory MPs after tomorrow? on 07:28 - Jul 4 by Pinewoodblue |
You are way out of line with everyone else but who knows you might be right for once.
The traditional Tory vote is split by Reform, add the two together and within 2% of predicted Labour vote.
Time will tell. |
There's a big straw that many Tories are clutching at - that Reform voters are all ex-Tories.
There is a big chunk of "They are all sht" and/or previous Labour voters too.
I reckon reform would split 2:1 Tory:Labour so still damaging to the Tories. |  |
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| Prediction time. How many Tory MPs after tomorrow? on 08:23 - Jul 4 with 1447 views | Pinewoodblue |
| Prediction time. How many Tory MPs after tomorrow? on 08:04 - Jul 4 by bluelagos |
There's a big straw that many Tories are clutching at - that Reform voters are all ex-Tories.
There is a big chunk of "They are all sht" and/or previous Labour voters too.
I reckon reform would split 2:1 Tory:Labour so still damaging to the Tories. |
Agreed have friend, in Cornwall, a traditional Labour voter, who shares everything Reform send out on Facebook.
Back in 2019 I thought the next election would result, at best, in a hung parliament, the demise of SNP put a stop to that view. Add Johnson, Truss etc……a perfect storm for Labour. | |
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| Prediction time. How many Tory MPs after tomorrow? on 09:07 - Jul 4 with 1432 views | Trequartista |
The polls have narrowed slightly in the last few days - Labour are now struggling to get 40% which is what Corbyn got in 2015 so they are pretty much going to get a default landslide with no particular enthusiasm for them. So I would say the Tories will still get 150. [Post edited 4 Jul 2024 9:08]
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| Prediction time. How many Tory MPs after tomorrow? on 10:08 - Jul 4 with 1409 views | Blueschev |
| Prediction time. How many Tory MPs after tomorrow? on 09:07 - Jul 4 by Trequartista |
The polls have narrowed slightly in the last few days - Labour are now struggling to get 40% which is what Corbyn got in 2015 so they are pretty much going to get a default landslide with no particular enthusiasm for them. So I would say the Tories will still get 150. [Post edited 4 Jul 2024 9:08]
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The only enthusiasm I've seen for any party this election is Reform. And the simpletons voting for them don't even know what they're excited about. | | | |
| Prediction time. How many Tory MPs after tomorrow? on 21:28 - Jul 4 with 1315 views | ford6600 |
Presume under 100 according to polls but probably in reality around 147... | | | |
| Prediction time. How many Tory MPs after tomorrow? on 11:02 - Jul 6 with 1194 views | Pinewoodblue |
Well I was closet, although Villanova blur gave a Bandung of betwee 110-120
Wooden spoon to Elephant, not a surprise really, who thought it would be over 200.
First complaint ….why hasn’t Starmer appointed a Minister for weather it needs sorting. | |
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| Prediction time. How many Tory MPs after tomorrow? on 11:09 - Jul 6 with 1172 views | DJR |
| Prediction time. How many Tory MPs after tomorrow? on 11:02 - Jul 6 by Pinewoodblue |
Well I was closet, although Villanova blur gave a Bandung of betwee 110-120
Wooden spoon to Elephant, not a surprise really, who thought it would be over 200.
First complaint ….why hasn’t Starmer appointed a Minister for weather it needs sorting. |
Well done you. | | | |
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