| Kemi or Suella? 09:33 - Jul 5 with 10435 views | DJR |
With the demise of Mordaunt, I think the next leader of the Tory party will be Badenoch or Braverman, especially given the make-up of the membership (assuming the membership is allowed a vote).
Whilst this may help in the fight against Farage, I am not not sure a drift to the right is a winning formula.
On the other hand, if Labour do screw it up, who knows what might happen? |  | | |  |
| Kemi or Suella? on 08:01 - Jul 6 with 1582 views | Buhrer |
| Kemi or Suella? on 07:59 - Jul 6 by bluelagos |
Htf can anyone who supported Boris Johnson's election to the office of PM even mention the Nolan principles?
The problem Eric Pickles has got is that he was happy supporting a deceitful, dishonest piece of sht like Johnson so how can he now expect to be taken seriously when raising the need to consider those principles now?
What he says is fair - but all a bit hypocritical given his previous stance which is basically we will turn the other cheek to Johnson's character when he is winning elections for us.
Unless you were a Tory who actually rejected Johnson and all he stood for in politics then I think it's a bit rich.
Tories need a major reset - it's taken the Liberals 14 years (Since 2010) to be forgiven for their deceit - suspect the Tories may have to wait some time before anyone trusts them again. |
The liberals haven't been forgiven, a generation of students knows them, and they'd still happily suck a tory teat for power. |  | | |
| Kemi or Suella? on 08:05 - Jul 6 with 1565 views | bluelagos |
| Kemi or Suella? on 08:01 - Jul 6 by Buhrer |
The liberals haven't been forgiven, a generation of students knows them, and they'd still happily suck a tory teat for power. |
Think the majority of people have moved on - given their polling,
Luckily for me I don't live in a Liberal/Tory marginal as it would be a horrible choice given their role in the coallition keeping Cameron in power. |  |
| |
| Kemi or Suella? on 08:31 - Jul 6 with 1533 views | Zapers |
| Kemi or Suella? on 23:16 - Jul 5 by redrickstuhaart |
What utter nonsense.
Boris, Sunak, Truss et al too far left? They have lost the centrists because they are nasty self interested bigots. |
Maybe nonsense in your opinion, but not to most people with an unbiased and balanced view |  | | |
| Kemi or Suella? on 08:46 - Jul 6 with 1516 views | DJR |
| Kemi or Suella? on 17:47 - Jul 5 by GlasgowBlue |
Thatcher wasn't particularly right wing when she was in power. She lurched further to the right after she left. |
I think you are rather seeing things through blue-tinted spectacles!
One thing I will say with Mrs Thatcher is that she was rather cautious for the first few years, but became much bolder as the 1980s progressed. [Post edited 6 Jul 2024 9:37]
| | | |
| Kemi or Suella? on 09:35 - Jul 6 with 1493 views | ElephantintheRoom |
The amusing thing is that whoever they choose will have to keep everyone happy - something of an impossible task. Because 15% of the MPs sending in votes of no confidence to unseat them is erm…. 8 | |
| |
| Kemi or Suella? on 09:42 - Jul 6 with 1491 views | DJR |
Having heard what a Tory insider said yesterday, it seems to me that Priti Patel is more likely to be the next leader, given she is said to be personally popular within the parliamentary party.
As it is, her powder is dry because she didn't put herself forward in the 2022 leadership election. [Post edited 8 Jul 2024 7:46]
| | | |
| Kemi or Suella? on 10:21 - Jul 6 with 1460 views | positivity |
| Kemi or Suella? on 08:31 - Jul 6 by Zapers |
Maybe nonsense in your opinion, but not to most people with an unbiased and balanced view |
nope, that's nonsense on every measurable unbiased and balanced view, why is truss far too left wing to "most people"? | |
| |
| Kemi or Suella? on 23:18 - Jul 7 with 1370 views | tractordownsouth |
I think the final two will be a choice between a candidate who wants to make some sort of pact with/appeasement of Reform and another who doesn't.
The candidate from the first category will be one of Badenoch or Jenrick.
Now Hunt has ruled himself out I think the other will most likely be Cleverly, with Tugendhat as an outside contender.
Whoever emerges as the candidate of the first group will win the membership vote. |  |
| |
Login to get fewer ads
| Kemi or Suella? on 23:27 - Jul 7 with 1362 views | tractordownsouth |
| Kemi or Suella? on 10:08 - Jul 5 by GlasgowBlue |
Exactly this. Infighting and Brexit left them with no chance or energy to govern. They didn't lose because they were too left or too right. They lost because they were fooking hopeless since 2016. |
Yep. They managed to piss off everybody across the political spectrum. They lost the middle ground over the economic impacts of Brexit and Truss and then tried to shore up the right-wing vote by ramping up the nasty rhetoric about immigrants and other minorities. The problem was that they ended up raising salience of issues highlighted by Reform but never solving them. The boats weren't stopped. A Rwanda flight never took off.
The fact they lost votes in all directions shows that they were viewed as incompetent across the board, both on economic and cultural issues.
The strategy during the short campaign took a similar pattern. Announcements like triple lock plus and national service in the first fortnight were designed with the sole intention of pandering to potential Tory to Reform switchers. Then along came Farage to blow the wind out of their sails and from that point, there was no coherent message about anything. Just a load of awful internet memes and lies about Labour's tax plans. | |
| |
| Kemi or Suella? on 23:37 - Jul 7 with 1348 views | tractordownsouth |
| Kemi or Suella? on 13:32 - Jul 5 by itfcjoe |
Kemi sounds good and competent when she is setting the agenda, if she ever has to go off script she is really, really poor for me and always ends up saying something that will cause her problems further down the line - she's not ready.
Suella just isn't very good full stop |
Braverman would take the Tories below 100 seats. She won't get into the top two anyway because the parliamentary party can't stand her and with the average Tory MP being more moderate after the loss of virtually all the 2019 intake, her path to the leadership is almost non-existent.
Whoever reaches the top two, I think we'll have another Sunak/Truss situation where the more right-wing candidate finishes second in the MP vote but wins with the members. | |
| |
| Kemi or Suella? on 05:40 - Jul 8 with 1282 views | bluelagos |
| Kemi or Suella? on 09:35 - Jul 6 by ElephantintheRoom |
The amusing thing is that whoever they choose will have to keep everyone happy - something of an impossible task. Because 15% of the MPs sending in votes of no confidence to unseat them is erm…. 8 |
Thankfully those extra maths teachers are in the plans. | |
| |
| Kemi or Suella? on 08:04 - Jul 8 with 1243 views | BlueForYou |
I think Cleverly would be a wise choice. |  | | |
| Kemi or Suella? on 10:28 - Jul 8 with 1192 views | itfcjoe |
| Kemi or Suella? on 23:37 - Jul 7 by tractordownsouth |
Braverman would take the Tories below 100 seats. She won't get into the top two anyway because the parliamentary party can't stand her and with the average Tory MP being more moderate after the loss of virtually all the 2019 intake, her path to the leadership is almost non-existent.
Whoever reaches the top two, I think we'll have another Sunak/Truss situation where the more right-wing candidate finishes second in the MP vote but wins with the members. |
Guess we don't know how they fiddle the leadership rules - may want to keep it away from the members like they did Sunak post Truss |  |
| |
| Kemi or Suella? on 10:42 - Jul 8 with 1167 views | DJR |
| Kemi or Suella? on 08:04 - Jul 8 by BlueForYou |
I think Cleverly would be a wise choice. |
Now that Hunt has ruled himself out, I would agree with that.
[Post edited 8 Jul 2024 10:42]
| | | |
| Kemi or Suella? on 14:19 - Jul 9 with 1040 views | DJR |
| Kemi or Suella? on 11:39 - Jul 5 by DJR |
Is that right? Do you have a rough breakdown of the actual numbers of what could perhaps be called "Research Group" MPs and MPs who are not such?
I had perhaps wrongly assumed that a lot of the former group would have been voted out in the Red Wall, and a lot of the latter would have tended to hold the more impregnable seats, but Badenach and Braverman may well disprove that assumption. [Post edited 5 Jul 2024 11:43]
|
It looks like my assumption is correct, meaning Tugendhat is almost certain to go through to the last two.
"Another problem for Braverman is that the assumption that a landslide defeat would leave the parliamentary Conservative party more rightwing than it was before seems to be wrong. Christian Calgie from the Express has been analysing the politics of the 121 Tory MPs who were elected and almost half of them are centrists. And a fifth are new members who are hard to place."
"Digging into the data about who the remaining 121 Tory MPs backed in 2022 suggests there’s going to be a lot of noise and heat in the battle for the right, while Tugendhat may have a quiet and easy ride into the final two run-off
47% of sitting Tory MPs backed either Sunak, Mordaunt or Tugendhat - Penny’s defeat makes the path even easier for TT While 17% backed Liz Truss, and just 12% backed the ‘cultural conservatives’ including Patel, Braverman and Badenoch
What else does this tell us? That the leadership hopefuls better get working on the 26 new intake Tory MPs stat if they want to make it to the final two.
It also suggests there could be more trouble ahead. Conventional wisdom suggests Tory members will pick the most right-wing candidate, but if nearly half of MPs prefer the centrist just *18* MPs are required under current rules to spark a vote of no confidence."
Be interesting to see who the right candidate will be (given Badenoch and Braverman would appear to have no chance despite what I said in the OP), because I assume they will have to placate the membership somewhat by offering such a choice. [Post edited 9 Jul 2024 14:27]
| | | |
| Kemi or Suella? on 14:54 - Jul 9 with 1005 views | Clapham_Junction |
I think one of the key things to look out for is whether the prospective Tory leader is open to a pact with Reform. If they learn from the approach taken by the left and centre in the French elections, or what Farage did in the 2019 election (standing down Reform candidates in certain seats), a Reform-Tory pact could do very well at the next election, particularly if Labour fail to deliver meaningful change and continue to lose left-leaning voters to the Greens. |  | | |
| |
By continuing to use the site, you agree to our use of cookies and to abide by our Terms and Conditions.
