| The USA election campaigns 16:36 - Oct 28 with 30333 views | noggin |
Is America really your closest ally? What a f**kin circus. |  |
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| The USA election campaigns on 13:32 - Oct 29 with 1571 views | PassionNotAnger |
| The USA election campaigns on 13:29 - Oct 29 by DinDjarin |
Yep, cause half of USA vote based on race or gender?
The black, Hispanic, Muslim and Jewish votes are massively up for Trump so he must be doing something right and hitting the right notes in the right places. Democrats are failing on that front and its nothing to do with race / gender just lack of competence under pressure or without a script of their candidate. |
What data have you got that supports that? I’m not saying it’s not correct but I’m interested in so many statements like this being made that claims things I’ve not been able to see in any of the available data (rather than partisan opinion pieces) [Post edited 29 Oct 2024 13:33]
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| The USA election campaigns on 13:34 - Oct 29 with 1562 views | positivity |
| The USA election campaigns on 11:01 - Oct 29 by DinDjarin |
Polling has been moving Trumps direction steadily the last few weeks and early voting is backing this up.
All swing states now likely for a Trump win and even New Mexico & New Hampshire in play.
Republicans will also win the house.
Republicans will clear 300. |
you never answered where you got your polling data from that predicted a massive trump win?
still seems out of line with most predictions | |
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| The USA election campaigns on 13:41 - Oct 29 with 1508 views | PassionNotAnger |
| The USA election campaigns on 13:34 - Oct 29 by positivity |
you never answered where you got your polling data from that predicted a massive trump win?
still seems out of line with most predictions |
I hope I’m wrong but there does seem to be a trend with people making contrary claims but then won’t engage in any discussions about the detail or sources etc.
I get that some people debate and ask questions in bad faith but it’s frustrating when people aren’t prepared to explain or validate what they mean when sharing things that contradict most other sources of information and evidence | | | |
| The USA election campaigns on 13:42 - Oct 29 with 1501 views | DinDjarin |
| The USA election campaigns on 13:34 - Oct 29 by positivity |
you never answered where you got your polling data from that predicted a massive trump win?
still seems out of line with most predictions |
I am sad and am pretty addicted to the current election and watch blogs from left, right and center and make my own mind up pretty much ignoring Fox, CNN etc as all just noise.
Every poll released has to declare the weighting of who was polled so just takes some time to go through them and on the whole most polls are weighted Democrat / Female due to the shy Republican factor.
If Harris is tied in any poll its extremely likely she is losing and some polls last time around were 4 points in Bidens favour and he narrowly won some by less than a half a point.
In 2016 Clinton was 5 points ahead in some polls and lost. |  | | |
| The USA election campaigns on 13:43 - Oct 29 with 1493 views | ElderGrizzly |
| The USA election campaigns on 13:41 - Oct 29 by PassionNotAnger |
I hope I’m wrong but there does seem to be a trend with people making contrary claims but then won’t engage in any discussions about the detail or sources etc.
I get that some people debate and ask questions in bad faith but it’s frustrating when people aren’t prepared to explain or validate what they mean when sharing things that contradict most other sources of information and evidence |
Media in the US this morning is saying Harris was likely to edge the Presidential race, but Dems could lose the Senate.
Which would make her significantly weaker as a President as the MAGA inspired GOP would do everything to block her policies. |  | | |
| The USA election campaigns on 13:47 - Oct 29 with 1470 views | PassionNotAnger |
| The USA election campaigns on 13:42 - Oct 29 by DinDjarin |
I am sad and am pretty addicted to the current election and watch blogs from left, right and center and make my own mind up pretty much ignoring Fox, CNN etc as all just noise.
Every poll released has to declare the weighting of who was polled so just takes some time to go through them and on the whole most polls are weighted Democrat / Female due to the shy Republican factor.
If Harris is tied in any poll its extremely likely she is losing and some polls last time around were 4 points in Bidens favour and he narrowly won some by less than a half a point.
In 2016 Clinton was 5 points ahead in some polls and lost. |
Sorry, perhaps I'm misunderstanding or oversimplifying but are you effectively saying you are just reading mainstream polling an applying your own weighting and adjustment?
Do you know think the highly qualified data scientists, AI tools, powerful data models etc aren’t a bit more capable of smoothing anomalies in sampling etc than the average watcher? [Post edited 29 Oct 2024 14:03]
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| The USA election campaigns on 13:58 - Oct 29 with 1421 views | PhilTWTD |
| The USA election campaigns on 13:42 - Oct 29 by DinDjarin |
I am sad and am pretty addicted to the current election and watch blogs from left, right and center and make my own mind up pretty much ignoring Fox, CNN etc as all just noise.
Every poll released has to declare the weighting of who was polled so just takes some time to go through them and on the whole most polls are weighted Democrat / Female due to the shy Republican factor.
If Harris is tied in any poll its extremely likely she is losing and some polls last time around were 4 points in Bidens favour and he narrowly won some by less than a half a point.
In 2016 Clinton was 5 points ahead in some polls and lost. |
"If Harris is tied in any poll its extremely likely she is losing and some polls last time around were 4 points in Bidens favour and he narrowly won some by less than a half a point. In 2016 Clinton was 5 points ahead in some polls and lost."
Pollsters will have adjusted because of that, so it's unlikely to happen again. Indeed, the underestimation may well be the other way around this time, as was the case in the 2022 mid-terms.
The gender disparity - women are overwhelmingly expected to vote for Harris - may also cause an under-representation of Harris voters. Also, the significant number of Republicans voting for Harris may not be properly reflected. |  | | |
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| The USA election campaigns on 14:01 - Oct 29 with 1385 views | phillymark |
| The USA election campaigns on 16:49 - Oct 28 by baxterbasics |
Not according to the poll averages over at the excellent
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/
It's all Trump there, more comfortably than in the previous two elections too.
Edit - it's all very narrow margins, but Biden last time and Clinton before him, had bigger leads in the polls at this point. [Post edited 28 Oct 2024 16:53]
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RCP leans right, so pinch of salt with their prediction. But it's scary close. Hopefully the disgusting MSG rally that Trump held with sway some voters (especially Puerto Ricans in PA). Trump is meeting with Puerto Ricans in Philadelphia today. He never apologises so the fact he is doing that shows was a disaster that rally was. | | | |
| The USA election campaigns on 14:02 - Oct 29 with 1373 views | EdwardStone |
| The USA election campaigns on 13:47 - Oct 29 by PassionNotAnger |
Sorry, perhaps I'm misunderstanding or oversimplifying but are you effectively saying you are just reading mainstream polling an applying your own weighting and adjustment?
Do you know think the highly qualified data scientists, AI tools, powerful data models etc aren’t a bit more capable of smoothing anomalies in sampling etc than the average watcher? [Post edited 29 Oct 2024 14:03]
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Or, to paraphrase loosely
Make stuff up and post it as if it is fact
They walk amongst us, shills, trolls and trumplings |  | | |
| The USA election campaigns on 14:03 - Oct 29 with 1376 views | phillymark |
| The USA election campaigns on 17:07 - Oct 28 by baxterbasics |
BBC Radio 4 last week made for interesting listening.
They were talking to Arab and Muslim *DEM* activists (not just voters, activists on the left of the party) who feel so betrayed by Biden/Harris over Israel that they are prepared to vote Trump in protest.
Even when reminded about Trump's rhetoric on migrants and the 'Muslim ban' last time, they didn't care. "We survived four years of Trump fine last time. But the current admin is supporting the bombing of our families in Palestine. We need to punish them." was the general tone. |
That's what might turn Michigan where the Muslim vote is significant enough to maybe change the election. | | | |
| The USA election campaigns on 14:04 - Oct 29 with 1369 views | phillymark |
| The USA election campaigns on 17:59 - Oct 28 by marKoffC |
Betfair Exchange has Trump victory 1.62 to Harris 2.66 (roughly 5/8 to 13/8) and there's £108 million traded on the market... |
Men bet far more than women and many bet for what they want... | | | |
| The USA election campaigns on 14:05 - Oct 29 with 1367 views | PassionNotAnger |
| The USA election campaigns on 14:02 - Oct 29 by EdwardStone |
Or, to paraphrase loosely
Make stuff up and post it as if it is fact
They walk amongst us, shills, trolls and trumplings |
I think it’s sensible to at least try and take things at face value and in good faith but if people won’t engage or answer even basic (and polite) questions then it’s natural to start questions both their motive and credibility ? [Post edited 29 Oct 2024 14:11]
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| The USA election campaigns on 14:06 - Oct 29 with 1362 views | DinDjarin |
| The USA election campaigns on 14:02 - Oct 29 by EdwardStone |
Or, to paraphrase loosely
Make stuff up and post it as if it is fact
They walk amongst us, shills, trolls and trumplings |
No I engage my brain and also am no Trump fan although am conservative so would probably lean Republican whilst holding my nose. .
Also I don't have to answer to you and your quality contribution to this thread. | | | |
| The USA election campaigns on 14:09 - Oct 29 with 1353 views | DinDjarin |
| The USA election campaigns on 14:03 - Oct 29 by phillymark |
That's what might turn Michigan where the Muslim vote is significant enough to maybe change the election. |
Add the Jewish vote regarding Israel.
Nothing I have said is made up but some of you just consume MSM headlines that suit your narrative. | | | |
| The USA election campaigns on 14:14 - Oct 29 with 1333 views | PassionNotAnger |
| The USA election campaigns on 14:09 - Oct 29 by DinDjarin |
Add the Jewish vote regarding Israel.
Nothing I have said is made up but some of you just consume MSM headlines that suit your narrative. |
With respect I’ve asked you a couple of simple and polite questions in response to your contributions. Just wondered why you won’t respond to them? You’ve willingly posted in this thread with your views and it would be a shame if you didn’t engage with polite responses? | | | |
| The USA election campaigns on 14:17 - Oct 29 with 1316 views | ArnoldMoorhen |
| The USA election campaigns on 17:02 - Oct 28 by PhilTWTD |
That is a right-leaning site and it's alleged elsewhere there have been deliberate attempts to flood the polling space with biased right-leaning polls.
But agree, generally, the word is it's going to be close, however, wouldn't entirely surprise me if Harris wins more comfortably than predicted. Early voting in swing states seems in her favour, turnout appears to be high, which again ought to favour her, and if the polls are like 2022, then the Dem vote was under-represented. |
Another important factor in swing states is that opinion polls don't survey registered voters overseas.
There are nearly 3 million of voting age. They could account for more than the margin of victory in some tight swing states.
Many will be military personnel, but not the majority. Broadly speaking "Americans with passports" is not a core Trump demographic.
https://www.fvap.gov/info/reports-surveys/overseas-citizen-population-analysis
And edit to include this article specifically about overseas voters and swing states:
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/with-polls-tight-us-election-campaigns-target-o
[Post edited 29 Oct 2024 14:22]
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| The USA election campaigns on 14:23 - Oct 29 with 1280 views | PassionNotAnger |
Thanks for you replies.
You originally said “ The black, Hispanic, Muslim and Jewish votes are massively up for Trump” and I asked for the data
You’ve linked two very recent articles of which one seems to be a pure opinion peice (times article behind a paywall so couldn’t read it fully) and an articulate based on a single poll. I’m not suggesting they aren’t credible sources or they aren’t accurate but equally they don’t exactly emphatically validate your claim of “massively up for Trump” do they?
Statistically and evidentially you appear to have made quite the leap to the almost hyperbolic conclusion in your original claim [Post edited 29 Oct 2024 14:24]
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| The USA election campaigns on 14:37 - Oct 29 with 1244 views | ElderGrizzly |
Trump is now invoking the 'Wenger defence' on the Puerto Rico comments:
Former president Donald Trump has reportedly told ABC News that he didn’t hear any of the comments made by comedian Tony Hinchcliffe at Trump’s rally in New York on Sunday, including when the comedian called Puerto Rico an “island of floating garbage.”
When asked about the comments, Trump allgedly did not denounce them but rather repeated that he didn’t hear them.
Trump also said that he didn’t know Hinchcliffe, saying: “I don’t know him; someone put him up there. I don’t know who he is.” | | | |
| The USA election campaigns on 14:56 - Oct 29 with 1204 views | DanTheMan |
| The USA election campaigns on 14:23 - Oct 29 by PassionNotAnger |
Thanks for you replies.
You originally said “ The black, Hispanic, Muslim and Jewish votes are massively up for Trump” and I asked for the data
You’ve linked two very recent articles of which one seems to be a pure opinion peice (times article behind a paywall so couldn’t read it fully) and an articulate based on a single poll. I’m not suggesting they aren’t credible sources or they aren’t accurate but equally they don’t exactly emphatically validate your claim of “massively up for Trump” do they?
Statistically and evidentially you appear to have made quite the leap to the almost hyperbolic conclusion in your original claim [Post edited 29 Oct 2024 14:24]
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Having examined the underlying data, both Black and Hispanic voters are still, on average, voting for Harris.
For black it seems to be 78-15 for Harris and then Hispanic was 52-40 for Harris. |  |
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| The USA election campaigns on 15:02 - Oct 29 with 1172 views | PassionNotAnger |
| The USA election campaigns on 14:56 - Oct 29 by DanTheMan |
Having examined the underlying data, both Black and Hispanic voters are still, on average, voting for Harris.
For black it seems to be 78-15 for Harris and then Hispanic was 52-40 for Harris. |
Thanks, intuitively that was more like I was expecting (actually probably even more in favour of Harris than I’d have guessed at) | | | |
| The USA election campaigns on 15:08 - Oct 29 with 1153 views | ElderGrizzly |
| The USA election campaigns on 15:02 - Oct 29 by PassionNotAnger |
Thanks, intuitively that was more like I was expecting (actually probably even more in favour of Harris than I’d have guessed at) |
Trump is in damage control, as a huge Puerto Rican and hispanic population live in Pennsylvania, which is a big swing state.
Big enough for a small move towards Harris (or at least away from Trump) could land a knock-out blow.
It's why he's now denying he heard the racist comments on Saturday and denying he knows the guy. Despite the comedian saying he cleared it with the campaign. | | | |
| The USA election campaigns on 15:13 - Oct 29 with 1133 views | ElderGrizzly |
| The USA election campaigns on 14:56 - Oct 29 by DanTheMan |
Having examined the underlying data, both Black and Hispanic voters are still, on average, voting for Harris.
For black it seems to be 78-15 for Harris and then Hispanic was 52-40 for Harris. |
This poll is out today too:
New polling has found that Donald Trump’s support among young Black men has decreased since August, while Kamala Harris’s has grown.
A new NAACP survey, conducted between Oct. 11-17, found that 21% of Black men under 50 years old said they would for the former president, down from 27% in August.
Harris’s support among this group jumped from 51% to 59 % over that same time frame, the researchers said. | | | |
| The USA election campaigns on 15:16 - Oct 29 with 1117 views | PassionNotAnger |
| The USA election campaigns on 15:08 - Oct 29 by ElderGrizzly |
Trump is in damage control, as a huge Puerto Rican and hispanic population live in Pennsylvania, which is a big swing state.
Big enough for a small move towards Harris (or at least away from Trump) could land a knock-out blow.
It's why he's now denying he heard the racist comments on Saturday and denying he knows the guy. Despite the comedian saying he cleared it with the campaign. |
I just don’t understand why he doesn’t just throw the comedian under the bus and say that it was a very poor attempt at a joke and doesn’t represent his views. It would largely get him off the hook and shut down the story without having to actually apologies and damage his ego
Entirely self inflicted own goal and they are making it worse by not putting it to be bed as always the democrats to keep chipping away and keeping it in the news | | | |
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