| The USA election campaigns 16:36 - Oct 28 with 28799 views | noggin |
Is America really your closest ally? What a f**kin circus. |  |
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| The USA election campaigns on 15:57 - Oct 31 with 2522 views | PassionNotAnger |
| The USA election campaigns on 15:28 - Oct 31 by Zapers |
And another one has gone Trump.
Wait before you start crying🤣 |
Hello again Zapers, what is about Trump and his policies that you prefer to Harris? Assuming you can’t think of any despite being asked repeatedly perhaps there might be something else?
This post has been edited by an administrator |  | | |
| The USA election campaigns on 16:18 - Oct 31 with 2475 views | NthQldITFC |
| The USA election campaigns on 15:28 - Oct 31 by Zapers |
And another one has gone Trump.
Wait before you start crying🤣 |
Your first sentence could do with a just a little more explanation and a reference.
Your second sentence, including the ultra-cringey emoji (seemingly ubiquitous in this calibre of content) says it all really. |  |
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| The USA election campaigns on 16:20 - Oct 31 with 2469 views | baxterbasics |
| The USA election campaigns on 15:43 - Oct 31 by positivity |
"gone trump", maybe local slang for a stomach upset in which ever lucky place in the world that zappy lives? |
I went trump a few minutes ago, several times. Thankfully nobody else was near me in the office at the time. |  |
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| The USA election campaigns on 16:30 - Oct 31 with 2446 views | vilanovablue |
| The USA election campaigns on 15:28 - Oct 31 by Zapers |
And another one has gone Trump.
Wait before you start crying🤣 |
Having followed the election closely I do believe Harris is likely to win more convincingly than some commentators predicted based on the latest evidence. Many of the polls are right leaning and have been factored in perhaps too heavily by people such as Nate Silver. |  | | |
| The USA election campaigns on 16:52 - Oct 31 with 2393 views | NthQldITFC |
| The USA election campaigns on 16:30 - Oct 31 by vilanovablue |
Having followed the election closely I do believe Harris is likely to win more convincingly than some commentators predicted based on the latest evidence. Many of the polls are right leaning and have been factored in perhaps too heavily by people such as Nate Silver. |
Ah, but we learned earlier in this very thread that the polls which say Harris will win are 'MSM', which I think is some sort of unhealthy and salty tasting newspaper cabal or maybe something that Bill Gates cooked up for Mind control? I don't know. But what we have been told is that the only polls which you can trust are the ones where you've 'done ur own resurch'. | |
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| The USA election campaigns on 18:36 - Oct 31 with 2299 views | J2BLUE |
| The USA election campaigns on 15:09 - Oct 31 by ElderGrizzly |
One of the most accurate pollsters in the US in previous elections has gone super bold on Harris
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When I did the predictor thing I had Harris winning with 270.
Imagine Trump losing by effectively one vote as he would get it if it was tied... |  |
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| The USA election campaigns on 16:07 - Nov 1 with 1998 views | DJR |
Not conclusive but I thought this from the Telegraph (no supporter of Harris) is interesting.
Kamala Harris has a big lead over Donald Trump among American voters who say they have already cast their ballots, according to several US major polls.
Recent studies by ABC News-Ipsos, New York Times-Siena College and CNN show Ms Harris with an advantage between 19 and 29 points over her Republican rival.
The lead is larger than that the one Hilary Clinton had over Donald Trump in the run up to the 2016 election, when polls showed the then Democratic nominee leading between eight and 16 points.
Joe Biden had a greater margin in late 2020 polls, when Democrats embraced mail voting and Trump attacked it and persuaded his supporters not to do it.
Polling also suggests that Ms Harris has a significant advantage in swing states, where the two parties have similar levels of support and where the outcome of the election will likely be decided. [Post edited 1 Nov 2024 16:08]
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| The USA election campaigns on 17:34 - Nov 1 with 1919 views | DinDjarin |
| The USA election campaigns on 15:09 - Oct 31 by ElderGrizzly |
One of the most accurate pollsters in the US in previous elections has gone super bold on Harris
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I stopped as soon as got as far up as Florida :-)
Thats a red double digit win so that bloke is obviously clueless |  | | |
| The USA election campaigns on 17:53 - Nov 1 with 1860 views | BillyH |
In the 2020 U.S. presidential election, the polling accuracy was widely critiqued, as several pollsters overestimated support for Joe Biden and underestimated Donald Trump's performance, especially in battleground states. However, some pollsters came closer to the actual results:
Trafalgar Group - Trafalgar was one of the most accurate pollsters in the 2020 election, particularly in battleground states like Pennsylvania, Florida, and North Carolina, where their projections aligned closely with the final vote margins. Trafalgar uses a unique methodology, including weighting for social desirability bias, which they argue helps capture support that other polls might miss.
Rasmussen Reports - Although not entirely precise, Rasmussen's final national poll showed a close race, with Biden leading by just 1%. This was narrower than most other pollsters predicted and came close to the actual margin, with Biden winning the popular vote by about 4.5%.
IBD/TIPP - IBD/TIPP’s polling also performed relatively well. Their final poll showed Biden leading by about 3 points nationally, which was closer than many other pollsters who had Biden up by 8-10 points. |  |
| When opportunity comes, put work into your faith, and don't be afraid to go out and live life. Whatever your sexuality is - gay, straight, boy, girl - go have fun. |
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| The USA election campaigns on 18:55 - Nov 1 with 1782 views | StokieBlue |
The claim that Atlas are the most accurate is made by Atlas themselves, not any independent polling analysis and it has very little data to support it outside them deciding their bespoke methodology was closest to the results. In fact Atlas have been accused of essentially "fitting" their methodology to weight towards Trump in this election [1].
Of course that doesn't mean they aren't correct with their polling this time, just it's best to look a little deeper into the polling methodology and claims made, especially when "correctness" is self-determined. If we look at 538 then they put Atlas down at number 22 based on historical accuracy and methodological transparency [2].
It's also worth noting that possible "fake" polling is being commissioned and feeding into a "stolen election" narrative by creating a possibly false Trump-surge before election day. This is covered by a Guardian article citing the NYT [3]. That article also touches on how a few large international bets are swinging the gambling market.
It's a close election, as Nate Silver said on CNBC yesterday:
"Anyone who is confident about this election is someone whose opinion you should discount"
It is pretty clear though that one side is setting up for legal challenges and incitement if the vote doesn't go their way and have been laying the groundwork for that for a few weeks now.
SB
[1]. https://nitter.poast.org/mishimura/status/1852083546283770193
[2]. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/
[3]. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/01/republicans-donald-trump-polls-u |  | | |
| The USA election campaigns on 19:03 - Nov 1 with 1732 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| The USA election campaigns on 18:55 - Nov 1 by StokieBlue |
The claim that Atlas are the most accurate is made by Atlas themselves, not any independent polling analysis and it has very little data to support it outside them deciding their bespoke methodology was closest to the results. In fact Atlas have been accused of essentially "fitting" their methodology to weight towards Trump in this election [1].
Of course that doesn't mean they aren't correct with their polling this time, just it's best to look a little deeper into the polling methodology and claims made, especially when "correctness" is self-determined. If we look at 538 then they put Atlas down at number 22 based on historical accuracy and methodological transparency [2].
It's also worth noting that possible "fake" polling is being commissioned and feeding into a "stolen election" narrative by creating a possibly false Trump-surge before election day. This is covered by a Guardian article citing the NYT [3]. That article also touches on how a few large international bets are swinging the gambling market.
It's a close election, as Nate Silver said on CNBC yesterday:
"Anyone who is confident about this election is someone whose opinion you should discount"
It is pretty clear though that one side is setting up for legal challenges and incitement if the vote doesn't go their way and have been laying the groundwork for that for a few weeks now.
SB
[1]. https://nitter.poast.org/mishimura/status/1852083546283770193
[2]. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/
[3]. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/01/republicans-donald-trump-polls-u |
Who knew McKenna and Trump had so much in common regarding betting odds. I'm tempted to have a flutter on Harris getting north of 300 electoral college votes but not sure I can afford a ÂŁ5 hit.
Edit....just played safe and put ÂŁ4 on at 5's... [Post edited 1 Nov 2024 19:09]
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| The USA election campaigns on 19:15 - Nov 1 with 1700 views | The_Flashing_Smile |
| The USA election campaigns on 18:55 - Nov 1 by StokieBlue |
The claim that Atlas are the most accurate is made by Atlas themselves, not any independent polling analysis and it has very little data to support it outside them deciding their bespoke methodology was closest to the results. In fact Atlas have been accused of essentially "fitting" their methodology to weight towards Trump in this election [1].
Of course that doesn't mean they aren't correct with their polling this time, just it's best to look a little deeper into the polling methodology and claims made, especially when "correctness" is self-determined. If we look at 538 then they put Atlas down at number 22 based on historical accuracy and methodological transparency [2].
It's also worth noting that possible "fake" polling is being commissioned and feeding into a "stolen election" narrative by creating a possibly false Trump-surge before election day. This is covered by a Guardian article citing the NYT [3]. That article also touches on how a few large international bets are swinging the gambling market.
It's a close election, as Nate Silver said on CNBC yesterday:
"Anyone who is confident about this election is someone whose opinion you should discount"
It is pretty clear though that one side is setting up for legal challenges and incitement if the vote doesn't go their way and have been laying the groundwork for that for a few weeks now.
SB
[1]. https://nitter.poast.org/mishimura/status/1852083546283770193
[2]. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/
[3]. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/01/republicans-donald-trump-polls-u |
Welcome back Stokers! |  |
| Trust the process. Trust Phil. |
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| The USA election campaigns on 19:25 - Nov 1 with 1670 views | GlasgowBlue |
| The USA election campaigns on 18:55 - Nov 1 by StokieBlue |
The claim that Atlas are the most accurate is made by Atlas themselves, not any independent polling analysis and it has very little data to support it outside them deciding their bespoke methodology was closest to the results. In fact Atlas have been accused of essentially "fitting" their methodology to weight towards Trump in this election [1].
Of course that doesn't mean they aren't correct with their polling this time, just it's best to look a little deeper into the polling methodology and claims made, especially when "correctness" is self-determined. If we look at 538 then they put Atlas down at number 22 based on historical accuracy and methodological transparency [2].
It's also worth noting that possible "fake" polling is being commissioned and feeding into a "stolen election" narrative by creating a possibly false Trump-surge before election day. This is covered by a Guardian article citing the NYT [3]. That article also touches on how a few large international bets are swinging the gambling market.
It's a close election, as Nate Silver said on CNBC yesterday:
"Anyone who is confident about this election is someone whose opinion you should discount"
It is pretty clear though that one side is setting up for legal challenges and incitement if the vote doesn't go their way and have been laying the groundwork for that for a few weeks now.
SB
[1]. https://nitter.poast.org/mishimura/status/1852083546283770193
[2]. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/
[3]. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/01/republicans-donald-trump-polls-u |
Very interesting. I think the Harris victory will be much larger than any polls are predicting. She relies on people who do tend to vote whereas Trump relies on a coalition of malcontents who normally don't bother to vote. I know which group is easier to get to the polls on the day. |  |
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| The USA election campaigns on 19:33 - Nov 1 with 1642 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| The USA election campaigns on 19:25 - Nov 1 by GlasgowBlue |
Very interesting. I think the Harris victory will be much larger than any polls are predicting. She relies on people who do tend to vote whereas Trump relies on a coalition of malcontents who normally don't bother to vote. I know which group is easier to get to the polls on the day. |
Sadly, the more they are marginalised the more likely they are to stick it to the man by voting for the man. Strange days but I think disillusioned Republicans might outweigh them. Log off and get back to me! | |
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| The USA election campaigns on 19:37 - Nov 1 with 1641 views | giant_stow |
| The USA election campaigns on 18:55 - Nov 1 by StokieBlue |
The claim that Atlas are the most accurate is made by Atlas themselves, not any independent polling analysis and it has very little data to support it outside them deciding their bespoke methodology was closest to the results. In fact Atlas have been accused of essentially "fitting" their methodology to weight towards Trump in this election [1].
Of course that doesn't mean they aren't correct with their polling this time, just it's best to look a little deeper into the polling methodology and claims made, especially when "correctness" is self-determined. If we look at 538 then they put Atlas down at number 22 based on historical accuracy and methodological transparency [2].
It's also worth noting that possible "fake" polling is being commissioned and feeding into a "stolen election" narrative by creating a possibly false Trump-surge before election day. This is covered by a Guardian article citing the NYT [3]. That article also touches on how a few large international bets are swinging the gambling market.
It's a close election, as Nate Silver said on CNBC yesterday:
"Anyone who is confident about this election is someone whose opinion you should discount"
It is pretty clear though that one side is setting up for legal challenges and incitement if the vote doesn't go their way and have been laying the groundwork for that for a few weeks now.
SB
[1]. https://nitter.poast.org/mishimura/status/1852083546283770193
[2]. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/
[3]. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/01/republicans-donald-trump-polls-u |
Good to see you back Mr! |  |
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| The USA election campaigns on 19:57 - Nov 1 with 1611 views | StokieBlue |
| The USA election campaigns on 19:25 - Nov 1 by GlasgowBlue |
Very interesting. I think the Harris victory will be much larger than any polls are predicting. She relies on people who do tend to vote whereas Trump relies on a coalition of malcontents who normally don't bother to vote. I know which group is easier to get to the polls on the day. |
Let's hope that's the case as the news from the Trump camp gets more concerning by the day.
Thus far today he's been put under investigation by Arizona for possible death threats against Liz Cheney and then we have the news that RFK Jr could be put in control of public healthcare in the event of a Trump victory which is deeply concerning [1].
RFK Jr is a strong anti-vaxxer to the point that he is chairman of a charity which campaigns against immunisation and other health measures [2]. He has also publicly stated there is a government conspiracy to cover-up that vaccines cause autism [3].
With vaccine scepticism already on the rise due to staggering levels of misinformation available via social media many areas are seeing a return of once defeated diseases such as measles. Putting someone in charge of health matters with these provably false views is only going to feed into that negative narrative and likely make things worse.
SB
[1]. https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/rfk-jr-trump-promised-control-public-health-agen
[2]. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Children%27s_Health_Defense
[3]. https://globalnews.ca/news/3253840/robert-de-niro-robert-f-kennedy-jr-offer-100g | | | |
| The USA election campaigns on 20:00 - Nov 1 with 1605 views | NthQldITFC |
Yes, very good to see you back. Hope you're packing three points and a victory for Democracy! | |
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| The USA election campaigns on 20:00 - Nov 1 with 1604 views | GlasgowBlue |
| The USA election campaigns on 19:57 - Nov 1 by StokieBlue |
Let's hope that's the case as the news from the Trump camp gets more concerning by the day.
Thus far today he's been put under investigation by Arizona for possible death threats against Liz Cheney and then we have the news that RFK Jr could be put in control of public healthcare in the event of a Trump victory which is deeply concerning [1].
RFK Jr is a strong anti-vaxxer to the point that he is chairman of a charity which campaigns against immunisation and other health measures [2]. He has also publicly stated there is a government conspiracy to cover-up that vaccines cause autism [3].
With vaccine scepticism already on the rise due to staggering levels of misinformation available via social media many areas are seeing a return of once defeated diseases such as measles. Putting someone in charge of health matters with these provably false views is only going to feed into that negative narrative and likely make things worse.
SB
[1]. https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/rfk-jr-trump-promised-control-public-health-agen
[2]. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Children%27s_Health_Defense
[3]. https://globalnews.ca/news/3253840/robert-de-niro-robert-f-kennedy-jr-offer-100g |
I saw the Liz Cheney clip. Evil stuff. Another of the Trump team's tactics is to get big donations from Republicans to Jill Stein in swing states, in the hope of peeling off Democrat voters. Doesn't look like money well spent though. | |
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| The USA election campaigns on 20:22 - Nov 1 with 1562 views | J2BLUE |
| The USA election campaigns on 19:25 - Nov 1 by GlasgowBlue |
Very interesting. I think the Harris victory will be much larger than any polls are predicting. She relies on people who do tend to vote whereas Trump relies on a coalition of malcontents who normally don't bother to vote. I know which group is easier to get to the polls on the day. |
I think Harris wins. For ages we had the shy Tories, shy Brexiteers, shy Republicans etc but now with the cult of Trump I think there will be plenty of shy Harris voters in the privacy of the polling booth. | |
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| The USA election campaigns on 20:29 - Nov 1 with 1530 views | StokieBlue |
| The USA election campaigns on 20:22 - Nov 1 by J2BLUE |
I think Harris wins. For ages we had the shy Tories, shy Brexiteers, shy Republicans etc but now with the cult of Trump I think there will be plenty of shy Harris voters in the privacy of the polling booth. |
I think that also needs to be extended to fearful Harris voters. There are likely many women who feel uncomfortable disclosing to their families that they are going to vote Harris (or even just not vote Trump).
Here are some examples from this week from rightwing commentators in the US [1]:
"in a Christian marriage, a wife should vote according to her husband’s direction"
"if my wife was going into the voting booth and pulling the lever for Harris, that’s the same thing as having an affair”. It violates “the sanctity of our marriage; what else is she keeping from me?"
Faced with this level of 17th century thinking from some parts of the population it wouldn't be surprising if a sizable number of women voters who are concerned about maintaining control of right to decide about their own bodies don't advertise the way they are going to vote.
SB
[1]. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/nov/01/maga-trump-men-supporters- | | | |
| The USA election campaigns on 20:33 - Nov 1 with 1497 views | J2BLUE |
| The USA election campaigns on 20:29 - Nov 1 by StokieBlue |
I think that also needs to be extended to fearful Harris voters. There are likely many women who feel uncomfortable disclosing to their families that they are going to vote Harris (or even just not vote Trump).
Here are some examples from this week from rightwing commentators in the US [1]:
"in a Christian marriage, a wife should vote according to her husband’s direction"
"if my wife was going into the voting booth and pulling the lever for Harris, that’s the same thing as having an affair”. It violates “the sanctity of our marriage; what else is she keeping from me?"
Faced with this level of 17th century thinking from some parts of the population it wouldn't be surprising if a sizable number of women voters who are concerned about maintaining control of right to decide about their own bodies don't advertise the way they are going to vote.
SB
[1]. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/nov/01/maga-trump-men-supporters- |
Welcome back SB
That's actually a better term for what I meant. Fearful sums it up perfectly. | |
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| The USA election campaigns on 20:37 - Nov 1 with 1457 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| The USA election campaigns on 20:22 - Nov 1 by J2BLUE |
I think Harris wins. For ages we had the shy Tories, shy Brexiteers, shy Republicans etc but now with the cult of Trump I think there will be plenty of shy Harris voters in the privacy of the polling booth. |
But will you risk ÂŁ5 on it? | |
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