| Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan 18:06 - Aug 10 with 3001 views | SitfcB |
Barry Bannan sent off hahaha. |  |
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| Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan on 19:05 - Aug 10 with 473 views | nrb1985 |
| Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan on 18:56 - Aug 10 by bsw72 |
Let’s compare a 2 point gap gained with 45 games to go (now) vs 10 games to go (end March/April)
Let’s look at the statistical analysis as it’s also about how much “noise” is still left in the season. With 45 games to go, there’s so much variance in results that a 2-point gap is tiny in statistical terms – it’s about the same as flipping a coin and calling heads slightly early.
With only 10 games left, there’s far less time for random swings, so the same 2-point gap is proportionally much bigger. In fact, a 2-point lead with 10 games left is roughly as valuable as a 4-point lead in August. That’s why timing matters as much as the raw points gap.
It’s basic Standard Deviation, assuming a draw rate of ~27% which tends to be the average.
So yes, it is a question of maths. |
Lol, are you actually applying Theta and option Greeks to a football season? Love that!
But! I’m not sure points in the Championship really have a time decay factor — you can’t exactly let them expire worthless in May.
Great read though. Out of curiosity, are we assuming a nice neat Gaussian distribution for results here, or have you baked in a bit of kurtosis to capture those occasional 7–0s?
Whether you bank them in August or April, 2 points are 2 points. There’s no time premium. They sit in the table the same way from day one to day forty-six. It is what it is. [Post edited 10 Aug 19:13]
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| Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan on 19:07 - Aug 10 with 458 views | nrb1985 |
| Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan on 19:01 - Aug 10 by positivity |
i'm saying that if you're expected to win by a cricket score and you actually win 2-1, that's not really something to crow about.
if you're more likely to lose (as we were against brum) and you get a point then it's a net gain of 1 for us
of course, it'd be lovely if sheff wed had held on, but that was always vanishing unlikely! |
Still not sure I get it (but that's more me than you probably!)
But we can absolutely agree on your last sentence :) | | | |
| Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan on 19:08 - Aug 10 with 454 views | billlm |
| Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan on 19:01 - Aug 10 by positivity |
i'm saying that if you're expected to win by a cricket score and you actually win 2-1, that's not really something to crow about.
if you're more likely to lose (as we were against brum) and you get a point then it's a net gain of 1 for us
of course, it'd be lovely if sheff wed had held on, but that was always vanishing unlikely! |
Why were we more likely to lose Friday, our starting eleven was better than there's, granted they have momentum and we have none, I thought we would win 2-1 I said it somewhere here, I guess if you thought we were loosing it's a gain but I lost two points, interesting take, |  | | |
| Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan on 19:19 - Aug 10 with 428 views | bsw72 |
| Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan on 19:05 - Aug 10 by nrb1985 |
Lol, are you actually applying Theta and option Greeks to a football season? Love that!
But! I’m not sure points in the Championship really have a time decay factor — you can’t exactly let them expire worthless in May.
Great read though. Out of curiosity, are we assuming a nice neat Gaussian distribution for results here, or have you baked in a bit of kurtosis to capture those occasional 7–0s?
Whether you bank them in August or April, 2 points are 2 points. There’s no time premium. They sit in the table the same way from day one to day forty-six. It is what it is. [Post edited 10 Aug 19:13]
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Nice try but it’s not really option decay but more like probability compression.
Two points in April change your odds a lot more than two points in August — same value on the table, very different value in the race, and it’s the race that counts.
You’re obviously not wrong with your simplistic view of what is a far more complex statistical analysis but you are ignoring the point I was making, which was I would stress more about a 2 pt swing with 10 games to go than with 45. |  | | |
| Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan on 19:23 - Aug 10 with 414 views | berkstractorboy |
| Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan on 19:08 - Aug 10 by billlm |
Why were we more likely to lose Friday, our starting eleven was better than there's, granted they have momentum and we have none, I thought we would win 2-1 I said it somewhere here, I guess if you thought we were loosing it's a gain but I lost two points, interesting take, |
Bookies had Brum favourites for the match. | | | |
| Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan on 19:33 - Aug 10 with 395 views | NthQldITFC |
I'm already feeling sorry for Wednesday, well the players and the fans anyway.
I wonder if when we play them on the 20th December down here, if they are still in the same boat, the whole of Portman Road could join in with them when they sing "Dejphon Chansiri, get out of our club!"
I think that would be a nice touch on behalf of traditional football clubs and values. |  |
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| Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan on 19:39 - Aug 10 with 385 views | nrb1985 |
| Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan on 19:19 - Aug 10 by bsw72 |
Nice try but it’s not really option decay but more like probability compression.
Two points in April change your odds a lot more than two points in August — same value on the table, very different value in the race, and it’s the race that counts.
You’re obviously not wrong with your simplistic view of what is a far more complex statistical analysis but you are ignoring the point I was making, which was I would stress more about a 2 pt swing with 10 games to go than with 45. |
I only managed to get to CFA level 2, sat 3 twice and couldn't pass. So that probably explains why I haven't fully grasped it.
Let's hope that I look like a reactionary berk come May though as it will hopefully mean we are up and the other two aren't :) | | | |
| Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan on 19:40 - Aug 10 with 373 views | billlm |
| Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan on 19:23 - Aug 10 by berkstractorboy |
Bookies had Brum favourites for the match. |
Ty I wouldn't have known that, | | | |
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| Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan on 19:51 - Aug 10 with 359 views | bsw72 |
| Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan on 19:39 - Aug 10 by nrb1985 |
I only managed to get to CFA level 2, sat 3 twice and couldn't pass. So that probably explains why I haven't fully grasped it.
Let's hope that I look like a reactionary berk come May though as it will hopefully mean we are up and the other two aren't :) |
Ha ha ha, I failed Maths A-Level (U grade) in 1991, took me another 20 years to get my head around advanced maths and statistics in my own time, to support some personal studies. I’m the saddo here, trust me. | | | |
| Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan on 20:04 - Aug 10 with 336 views | nrb1985 |
| Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan on 19:51 - Aug 10 by bsw72 |
Ha ha ha, I failed Maths A-Level (U grade) in 1991, took me another 20 years to get my head around advanced maths and statistics in my own time, to support some personal studies. I’m the saddo here, trust me. |
I just about scraper a C at GCSE maths with the help of a home tutor too! My Dad still can’t believe the field I’ve ended up in!
Funny how things work out sometimes isn’t it. | | | |
| Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan on 22:58 - Aug 10 with 263 views | positivity |
| Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan on 19:08 - Aug 10 by billlm |
Why were we more likely to lose Friday, our starting eleven was better than there's, granted they have momentum and we have none, I thought we would win 2-1 I said it somewhere here, I guess if you thought we were loosing it's a gain but I lost two points, interesting take, |
i have this down as our 2nd toughest game of the season, therefore if this is a win, that means we would be on target to get between 135-138 points over the course of the season. i'm not that positive!
(as someone else said, the most likely result from the bookies was a brum win, whereas leicester were 7-1 on against wednesday) | |
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| Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan on 23:25 - Aug 10 with 235 views | patrickswell |
| Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan on 18:20 - Aug 10 by SuperBlue1998 |
Does the continued use of "well done" imply you assign agency to posters here in determining this result? |
I clearly heard Courtney Sweetman-Kirk on summarising duties attributing Leicester’s winner to a mixture of no one tracking Faes’s run into the box and you making a post on a message board. I think she had you as the most culpable too, given the inexperience in Wednesday’s lineup. |  | | |
| Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan on 23:57 - Aug 10 with 199 views | Bigalhunter |
| Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan on 18:39 - Aug 10 by nrb1985 |
What I realise is, there has been a cigarette paper between the top 3/4 in the last two seasons, so 2 extra points gained by Saints and Leics in August will likely (in my opinion) be material come end of the season.
It's a question of maths surely not seasonality?! |
Come on now, you must know that any points accumulated in the first few games of August are utterly irrelevant..
You can only start counting them up in mid-September, when the transfer window has slammed shut and all the new signings have started to bed in..
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| Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan on 04:16 - Aug 11 with 146 views | Benters |
| Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan on 18:17 - Aug 10 by Bluebell |
For once I really feel sorry for Sheffield Wed.
Only signed 15 players and 6 youngsters on the bench who have never had first team experience. |
I agree Bellers. |  |
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| Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan on 10:48 - Aug 11 with 51 views | ArnoldMoorhen |
| Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan on 18:17 - Aug 10 by Bluebell |
For once I really feel sorry for Sheffield Wed.
Only signed 15 players and 6 youngsters on the bench who have never had first team experience. |
On the plus side: some of them do now! | | | |
| Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan Barry Bannan on 10:54 - Aug 11 with 39 views | PhilTWTD |
Barry 'One-Match' Bannan. |  | | |
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