| Income Tax rise ditched on 11:35 - Nov 14 with 637 views | Benters |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 11:22 - Nov 14 by bartyg |
Have you got anything meaningful to contribute besides being small minded? |
And there we go the problem with you lot on here is you can’t bear anyone to have a different view to you 🤓🤪 |  |
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| Income Tax rise ditched on 11:40 - Nov 14 with 616 views | lowhouseblue |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 11:34 - Nov 14 by nrb1985 |
Lots of people have been calling for a crash every year since 2009.
Meanwhile, global equities are up 200% + since then...
I also note that arch bear Michael Burry, of big short fame, wound up his hedge fund today having been calling for a crash since 2011 to date.
There will be a crash at some point of course, fools game trying to time it and those that do like Michael can easily end up looking silly.
A crash though with a growing economy, interest rates coming down and valuations at 25x earnings (expensive not stupid) seems unlikely though.
NB - I consider a crash to be -20% or more. |
of course a 20% correction will come at some point - it's how markets work. there have always been and always will be cycles. certainly far from impossible that it will be in the next two years. more than that who knows. the issue is whether different markets will be correlated in the way they were in 2009 and whether larger falls in some markets will trigger major contagion. all the signs are that that risk is much lower than in 2009. |  |
| And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show |
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| Income Tax rise ditched on 11:40 - Nov 14 with 612 views | Herbivore |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 11:15 - Nov 14 by Benters |
I will vote Reform again.
I’d vote for Labour (my parents always did) if they actually sorted out the smashing the gangs.
Not only that I really can’t stand Two Tier Kier he’s a awful PM. |
He's not great but he's less shit than his three immediate predecessors. The country is a right state, the NHS is a mess, cost of living is high, the economy isn't growing, housing is too expensive, energy prices likewise. Can I ask why it is when we have all of these other issues affecting the lives of people in the UK that it's people coming to the UK on small boats that is the main issue you're worried about? |  |
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| Income Tax rise ditched on 11:40 - Nov 14 with 604 views | leitrimblue |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 11:35 - Nov 14 by Benters |
And there we go the problem with you lot on here is you can’t bear anyone to have a different view to you 🤓🤪 |
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| Income Tax rise ditched on 11:43 - Nov 14 with 568 views | J2BLUE |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 11:40 - Nov 14 by Herbivore |
He's not great but he's less shit than his three immediate predecessors. The country is a right state, the NHS is a mess, cost of living is high, the economy isn't growing, housing is too expensive, energy prices likewise. Can I ask why it is when we have all of these other issues affecting the lives of people in the UK that it's people coming to the UK on small boats that is the main issue you're worried about? |
Nothing seems as effective as a short derogatory nickname which sticks.
What rhymes with Farage? Er...or Nigel? Nige? |  |
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| Income Tax rise ditched on 11:55 - Nov 14 with 521 views | nrb1985 |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 11:32 - Nov 14 by LutherBlissett |
Bubbles aren't caused solely by debt, as I'm sure you know. We're talking about pervasiveness in the market and structural impacts rather than leverage. So you're right, it's not the same but the bubble's size and influence are comparable. |
But we aren't in a bubble, that's my point. None of the components are there.
Valuations aren't excessive, these companies aren't overleveraged (quite the reverse), IPOs etc are considerably less than they were in the dotcom boom and the earnings are huge. For comparison to .com the main issue there was, none of the companies had any earnings...
It's just a word people are using at the moment to generate clicks and engagement and sound clever.
I'll spin it around, why do you think we are in a bubble? |  | | |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 11:55 - Nov 14 with 520 views | Benters |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 11:40 - Nov 14 by leitrimblue |
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What’s da big idea ?
‘Dars more to Ireland den dis  | |
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| Income Tax rise ditched on 11:57 - Nov 14 with 505 views | leitrimblue |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 11:55 - Nov 14 by Benters |
What’s da big idea ?
‘Dars more to Ireland den dis |
Sorry, couldn't resist, ( was purely for my own amusement) the goal was half empty and the keeper was carrying a knock | | | |
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| Income Tax rise ditched on 11:58 - Nov 14 with 499 views | nrb1985 |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 11:40 - Nov 14 by lowhouseblue |
of course a 20% correction will come at some point - it's how markets work. there have always been and always will be cycles. certainly far from impossible that it will be in the next two years. more than that who knows. the issue is whether different markets will be correlated in the way they were in 2009 and whether larger falls in some markets will trigger major contagion. all the signs are that that risk is much lower than in 2009. |
If you have another 2008 then yeah, correlations will go to 1 so to speak and everything, even gold will likely tank.
What we're talking about is a healthy correction, which is quite normal, like 2022. Some markets faired far better then than others (UK was actually +3% for the year, US -18%).
People are always looking for the next 2008, which may well come but it'll most likely be because of a exogenous shock nobody saw coming - like covid. | | | |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 12:43 - Nov 14 with 411 views | DanTheMan |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 11:55 - Nov 14 by nrb1985 |
But we aren't in a bubble, that's my point. None of the components are there.
Valuations aren't excessive, these companies aren't overleveraged (quite the reverse), IPOs etc are considerably less than they were in the dotcom boom and the earnings are huge. For comparison to .com the main issue there was, none of the companies had any earnings...
It's just a word people are using at the moment to generate clicks and engagement and sound clever.
I'll spin it around, why do you think we are in a bubble? |
I'll answer.
Because there is no revenue being generated by any of these companies compared to the amount of money that is being pumped into them.
You say the earnings are huge but they aren't.
OpenAI, the biggest actual AI company, is reportedly having revenue of $13billion (and a loss of $9 billion). That's tiny for a company worth $500billion. That's like 3% of the revenue of Apple.
Nvidia is the only company actually making any money on this because they are selling the shovels, although it's very weird they are also paying people to buy their shovels... |  |
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| Income Tax rise ditched on 12:43 - Nov 14 with 410 views | LutherBlissett |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 11:55 - Nov 14 by nrb1985 |
But we aren't in a bubble, that's my point. None of the components are there.
Valuations aren't excessive, these companies aren't overleveraged (quite the reverse), IPOs etc are considerably less than they were in the dotcom boom and the earnings are huge. For comparison to .com the main issue there was, none of the companies had any earnings...
It's just a word people are using at the moment to generate clicks and engagement and sound clever.
I'll spin it around, why do you think we are in a bubble? |
"Valuations aren't excessive."
Nvidia's market cap is over 16% of US GDP and that's not excessive?
No, bubbles do not repeat themselves but they do often rhyme. Would you advise your clients to get in right now, at the top? A strong bull market is one thing, hubris is another. | | | |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 12:45 - Nov 14 with 403 views | peterleeblue |
Sunak should have done this in 2022 once Covid was over. It would have been an easy sell then. Furlough needed paying for.
Labour are turning into a massive disappoint for me. Still happy to give it time 1 year to fix 14 years was never going to happen.
However, without raising revenue I cant see how anything improves in the longer term.
I am biased because I work in it but they should take a gamble with Hospitality.
Take VAT down to 5% and freeze alcohol duty in this sector. By its nature hospitality is creative and will invest given some profit to that with. It will create jobs in both construction and in the business, there will be margin to entice the consumer back which in turn increases sales for the associated suppliers. Hospitality is responsible for 30% of employment and creates opportunities for the young.
Hospitality needs to be a reasonably priced option for the many not the few. Gets people of phones and into socialising again. |  | | |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 12:57 - Nov 14 with 369 views | nrb1985 |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 12:43 - Nov 14 by LutherBlissett |
"Valuations aren't excessive."
Nvidia's market cap is over 16% of US GDP and that's not excessive?
No, bubbles do not repeat themselves but they do often rhyme. Would you advise your clients to get in right now, at the top? A strong bull market is one thing, hubris is another. |
"Nvidia's market cap is over 16% of US GDP and that's not excessive?"
Market cap to GDP is not really a metric of valuation. Moreover it speaks to the enormous earnings it's generating. Companies generating billions and billions of free cash flow isn't usually an issue...
Overall, it trades at ~40x times earnings but has traded significantly higher in the past, and is growing earnings at almost 30% pa - so naturally, it trades at a premium given the S&P as a whole is growing earnings at closer to 10%.
For context, in the dot.com boom there were stocks with no earnings trading at about 40 x earnings.
If I have a client today looking to allocate new capital to tech - BUY NVDA, AAPL and GOOGL, avoid META, MSFT for now. And buy power and utility companies which will be essential for data centers etc etc.
Hope that helps! [Post edited 14 Nov 12:58]
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| Income Tax rise ditched on 13:00 - Nov 14 with 360 views | nrb1985 |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 12:43 - Nov 14 by DanTheMan |
I'll answer.
Because there is no revenue being generated by any of these companies compared to the amount of money that is being pumped into them.
You say the earnings are huge but they aren't.
OpenAI, the biggest actual AI company, is reportedly having revenue of $13billion (and a loss of $9 billion). That's tiny for a company worth $500billion. That's like 3% of the revenue of Apple.
Nvidia is the only company actually making any money on this because they are selling the shovels, although it's very weird they are also paying people to buy their shovels... |
I'm talking about the earnings of the hyperscalers or mag 7 as they were previously known who are the "application" layer. And they are generating revenues already and seeing the start of ROI on their AI spend.
Were you this sceptical of the billions being ploughed into cloud 10+ years ago?
Re OpenAI - who knows, it's a private company. And it's entirely possible they become the myspace of their time. My sentiment is really about the broader benefits and implications of AI in wider society and productivity. [Post edited 14 Nov 13:02]
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| Income Tax rise ditched on 13:02 - Nov 14 with 349 views | J2BLUE |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 12:57 - Nov 14 by nrb1985 |
"Nvidia's market cap is over 16% of US GDP and that's not excessive?"
Market cap to GDP is not really a metric of valuation. Moreover it speaks to the enormous earnings it's generating. Companies generating billions and billions of free cash flow isn't usually an issue...
Overall, it trades at ~40x times earnings but has traded significantly higher in the past, and is growing earnings at almost 30% pa - so naturally, it trades at a premium given the S&P as a whole is growing earnings at closer to 10%.
For context, in the dot.com boom there were stocks with no earnings trading at about 40 x earnings.
If I have a client today looking to allocate new capital to tech - BUY NVDA, AAPL and GOOGL, avoid META, MSFT for now. And buy power and utility companies which will be essential for data centers etc etc.
Hope that helps! [Post edited 14 Nov 12:58]
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I agree.
Especially with this bit:
If I have a client today looking to allocate new capital to tech - BUY NVDA, AAPL and GOOGL, avoid META, MSFT for now. And buy power and utility companies which will be essential for data centers etc etc.
Personally I am not buying AAPL either but I agree with the rest of it. Solar power likely to be very big in the future. | |
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| Income Tax rise ditched on 13:03 - Nov 14 with 346 views | Pinewoodblue |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 11:58 - Nov 14 by nrb1985 |
If you have another 2008 then yeah, correlations will go to 1 so to speak and everything, even gold will likely tank.
What we're talking about is a healthy correction, which is quite normal, like 2022. Some markets faired far better then than others (UK was actually +3% for the year, US -18%).
People are always looking for the next 2008, which may well come but it'll most likely be because of a exogenous shock nobody saw coming - like covid. |
Unlike to UK market in the US shares are significantly over priced and not just tech stocks. It doesn’t help that the over 70’s are now probably the largest age group with such investments.
A correction seems inevitable but hopefully the impact will be lower here. |  |
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| Income Tax rise ditched on 13:05 - Nov 14 with 336 views | nrb1985 |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 13:02 - Nov 14 by J2BLUE |
I agree.
Especially with this bit:
If I have a client today looking to allocate new capital to tech - BUY NVDA, AAPL and GOOGL, avoid META, MSFT for now. And buy power and utility companies which will be essential for data centers etc etc.
Personally I am not buying AAPL either but I agree with the rest of it. Solar power likely to be very big in the future. |
Dan would know better (I think he works in tech from memory) but the AAPL AI model is fascinating.
I.e. they don't have one, they are conserving their balance sheet and will likely just plug and play google's technology. Might work, might not. Let's see.
More broadly I prefer China tech here to the US at the moment. Particularly as they are going to have an enormous amount of emphasis on Tech self reliance going forward. | | | |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 13:07 - Nov 14 with 331 views | nrb1985 |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 13:03 - Nov 14 by Pinewoodblue |
Unlike to UK market in the US shares are significantly over priced and not just tech stocks. It doesn’t help that the over 70’s are now probably the largest age group with such investments.
A correction seems inevitable but hopefully the impact will be lower here. |
Agreed.
Valuations will play a part if we get some big market shock, meaning the US will likely have a bigger drawdown vs. rest of the world.
However, high valuations alone don't cause the end of Bull markets. | | | |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 13:10 - Nov 14 with 317 views | LutherBlissett |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 12:57 - Nov 14 by nrb1985 |
"Nvidia's market cap is over 16% of US GDP and that's not excessive?"
Market cap to GDP is not really a metric of valuation. Moreover it speaks to the enormous earnings it's generating. Companies generating billions and billions of free cash flow isn't usually an issue...
Overall, it trades at ~40x times earnings but has traded significantly higher in the past, and is growing earnings at almost 30% pa - so naturally, it trades at a premium given the S&P as a whole is growing earnings at closer to 10%.
For context, in the dot.com boom there were stocks with no earnings trading at about 40 x earnings.
If I have a client today looking to allocate new capital to tech - BUY NVDA, AAPL and GOOGL, avoid META, MSFT for now. And buy power and utility companies which will be essential for data centers etc etc.
Hope that helps! [Post edited 14 Nov 12:58]
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The growth simply doesn't look sustainable and there'll be a painful repricing soon. That will unwind into tech and other industries more broadly which could reach systemic levels.
That's my opinion, which I know you won't agree with, but I think the overconcentration is too much, prices are overblown and the whole thing is set up for a short, sharp shock,
We shall see. | | | |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 13:21 - Nov 14 with 276 views | nrb1985 |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 13:10 - Nov 14 by LutherBlissett |
The growth simply doesn't look sustainable and there'll be a painful repricing soon. That will unwind into tech and other industries more broadly which could reach systemic levels.
That's my opinion, which I know you won't agree with, but I think the overconcentration is too much, prices are overblown and the whole thing is set up for a short, sharp shock,
We shall see. |
Sorry, to be clear though;
a) Nobody is suggesting invest solely in tech and being over concentrated.
b) A short sharp shock is not the same as being a bubble that bursts. Arguably we've had a short sharp shock in the last few weeks with META and others down -20% from their high. | | | |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 13:22 - Nov 14 with 273 views | reusersfreekicks |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 11:15 - Nov 14 by Benters |
I will vote Reform again.
I’d vote for Labour (my parents always did) if they actually sorted out the smashing the gangs.
Not only that I really can’t stand Two Tier Kier he’s a awful PM. |
Are you hoping they will "machine gun immigrants" as they enter the country
You do know that we have much other bigger challenges to address?
You are falling for a racist con
Just like people did in1930s Germany and Italy [Post edited 14 Nov 13:31]
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| Income Tax rise ditched on 13:23 - Nov 14 with 272 views | Herbivore |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 13:00 - Nov 14 by nrb1985 |
I'm talking about the earnings of the hyperscalers or mag 7 as they were previously known who are the "application" layer. And they are generating revenues already and seeing the start of ROI on their AI spend.
Were you this sceptical of the billions being ploughed into cloud 10+ years ago?
Re OpenAI - who knows, it's a private company. And it's entirely possible they become the myspace of their time. My sentiment is really about the broader benefits and implications of AI in wider society and productivity. [Post edited 14 Nov 13:02]
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The "broader benefit" you've outlined is corporate profits going up and vacancy rates increasing as fewer people are needed to do certain jobs. I am struggling to see how that's a benefit. | |
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| Income Tax rise ditched on 13:25 - Nov 14 with 260 views | Steve_M |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 11:17 - Nov 14 by Herbivore |
The proposal to increase income tax by 2p and reduce NI by 2p that was originally floated was a good one as it meant those below the higher rate tax threshold essentially came out with no net increase whereas those earning above the higher rate threshold would pay more. I think that seems fair. Doing it this way is, as you say, dishonest. I appreciate that trying to get high earners who aren't on PAYE to pay their fair share isn't easy but it seems we've given up on even trying. |
Missed your reply earlier.
Yes, fairer but more broad-based tax rises are still needed to improve public services and there aren't enough people on, say, £80k+ to just put it all on them.
Part of the problem on the last point though, is it's global wealth and, by definition, able to move around far more easily than the rest of us. But, yeah, a bit more effort would be nice - doesn't help that various governments have culled HMRC numbers in the name of "efficiency" here either. |  |
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| Income Tax rise ditched on 13:25 - Nov 14 with 259 views | nrb1985 |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 13:23 - Nov 14 by Herbivore |
The "broader benefit" you've outlined is corporate profits going up and vacancy rates increasing as fewer people are needed to do certain jobs. I am struggling to see how that's a benefit. |
But imagine you're old and smelly and in a home - and instead of some disinterested youngster coming round to give you your pills and wipe your bottom - you get a humanoid robot that looks like Ursula Andress. | | | |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 13:27 - Nov 14 with 241 views | Herbivore |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 13:25 - Nov 14 by nrb1985 |
But imagine you're old and smelly and in a home - and instead of some disinterested youngster coming round to give you your pills and wipe your bottom - you get a humanoid robot that looks like Ursula Andress. |
Lol at the idea we'll be able to fund social care by the time I reach old age. | |
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