| Boris has taken us back to the top of the table 12:42 - Jun 17 with 3322 views | StokieBlue |
UK now has the highest number of C19 cases per 100,000 in Europe. Great work there from Boris and his non-existent Indian trade deal.
I also see that Ryanair are taking the government to court to try and get transparency on the traffic light system without taking into account that it's all pretty irrelevant as lots of other countries are stopping travel from the UK due to the Delta variant so it makes little difference what countries are green.
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| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Boris has taken us back to the top of the table on 12:44 - Jun 17 with 2407 views | footers |
In his own words: 'totally fcking useles'. |  |
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| Boris has taken us back to the top of the table on 12:47 - Jun 17 with 2383 views | bluelagos |
So our rates have tripled over 2 weeks. Any reason why they won't continue on that trajectory?
Assuming not, and given the projected slowdown in vaccination rates, that has to jeopardise the full opening up date doesn't it? |  |
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| Boris has taken us back to the top of the table on 12:53 - Jun 17 with 2335 views | ThisIsMyUsername |
Yes, but it is OK because we now much better understand the Delta variant as a result. |  |
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| The "rate of increase"..... on 12:54 - Jun 17 with 2343 views | Bloots |
| Boris has taken us back to the top of the table on 12:47 - Jun 17 by bluelagos |
So our rates have tripled over 2 weeks. Any reason why they won't continue on that trajectory?
Assuming not, and given the projected slowdown in vaccination rates, that has to jeopardise the full opening up date doesn't it? |
....has actually started to decrease, if you get my drift.
So there is an argument that we are getting towards the peak of this wave, despite the numbers still rising currently.
For a bit of balance, of course if you look at the wider picture our infection rate is not in the top 50 in the world, and not in the top 25 in Europe.
Despite the current bad figures it's important to note that we are testing far, far more people than our most prominent European neighbours, in some cases 4 or 5 times the amount they are.
As old Trumpy once said if you don't test people you wont find the cases. |  |
| TWTD Leadership Group/Elite Level Supporter/Anti-Bullying Crusader |
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| The "rate of increase"..... on 12:59 - Jun 17 with 2302 views | StokieBlue |
| The "rate of increase"..... on 12:54 - Jun 17 by Bloots |
....has actually started to decrease, if you get my drift.
So there is an argument that we are getting towards the peak of this wave, despite the numbers still rising currently.
For a bit of balance, of course if you look at the wider picture our infection rate is not in the top 50 in the world, and not in the top 25 in Europe.
Despite the current bad figures it's important to note that we are testing far, far more people than our most prominent European neighbours, in some cases 4 or 5 times the amount they are.
As old Trumpy once said if you don't test people you wont find the cases. |
"For a bit of balance, of course if you look at the wider picture our infection rate is not in the top 50 in the world, and not in the top 25 in Europe."
What is your source?
In Europe we have the highest rate per 100,000 (~83) and the second highest daily rate after Russia.
I don't think it can all be dismissed as "more testing".
SB [Post edited 17 Jun 2021 13:01]
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| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Boris has taken us back to the top of the table on 13:09 - Jun 17 with 2227 views | peterleeblue |
Its all priced in and as long as we can have a nice barbie at a posh hotel location in Devon all's well with the world.
Absolute Shameless T@ssers the lot of them.
Cummings was right on one thing we have a system that presents us with Johnson v Corbyn. Truly depressing set of affairs. |  | | |
| I'm looking at the overall figures..... on 13:14 - Jun 17 with 2185 views | Bloots |
| The "rate of increase"..... on 12:59 - Jun 17 by StokieBlue |
"For a bit of balance, of course if you look at the wider picture our infection rate is not in the top 50 in the world, and not in the top 25 in Europe."
What is your source?
In Europe we have the highest rate per 100,000 (~83) and the second highest daily rate after Russia.
I don't think it can all be dismissed as "more testing".
SB [Post edited 17 Jun 2021 13:01]
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....not just todays or this weeks, which I assume you are.
Throughout this whole pandemic we have seen the most significant impact earlier than our friends in mainland Europe, so looking at daily figures doesn't really stack up.
The most recent data on "ourworldindata" shows our positivity rate per test to be 0.8%
France is 1.5%
Germany 3.1%
Spain 5.6%
Belgium 2.4%
Netherlands 6.1%
etc, etc
If you extrapolated those figures out to the number of test we are doing I expect we'd see a very different picture. | |
| TWTD Leadership Group/Elite Level Supporter/Anti-Bullying Crusader |
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| I'm looking at the overall figures..... on 13:25 - Jun 17 with 2144 views | StokieBlue |
| I'm looking at the overall figures..... on 13:14 - Jun 17 by Bloots |
....not just todays or this weeks, which I assume you are.
Throughout this whole pandemic we have seen the most significant impact earlier than our friends in mainland Europe, so looking at daily figures doesn't really stack up.
The most recent data on "ourworldindata" shows our positivity rate per test to be 0.8%
France is 1.5%
Germany 3.1%
Spain 5.6%
Belgium 2.4%
Netherlands 6.1%
etc, etc
If you extrapolated those figures out to the number of test we are doing I expect we'd see a very different picture. |
The accepted way since the start of the pandemic to look at these numbers is a 7 day rolling average which is what the graph shows and what the cases per 100,000 is based on.
I've never seen "positivity rate per test" used as a way to extrapolate the number of cases, if you use the numbers you have cited and extrapolate out for the number of tests taken then the data is likely smoothed because those only testing people who look like they have C19 are going to get a higher "positivity rate per test" than a country doing a lot of testing of people without symptoms. It would also only be of value if the "positivity rate per test" is based over a short and recent timescale - positive tests 6 months ago are irrelevant - is that the case for the data you've used?
Just seems odd to me to look for a different way of reporting the cases to the accepted on which has been used. What's the rationale? Perhaps it's a better way of doing it so I am interested to hear.
SB [Post edited 17 Jun 2021 13:29]
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| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Boris has taken us back to the top of the table on 13:36 - Jun 17 with 2084 views | Ftnfwest |
although we do test 3 times the rate of anyone else which doesn't help |  | | |
| Boris has taken us back to the top of the table on 13:37 - Jun 17 with 2075 views | Swansea_Blue |
| Boris has taken us back to the top of the table on 13:36 - Jun 17 by Ftnfwest |
although we do test 3 times the rate of anyone else which doesn't help |
Chicken & egg innit. More infections = more tests. |  |
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| Boris has taken us back to the top of the table on 13:40 - Jun 17 with 2050 views | Ftnfwest |
| Boris has taken us back to the top of the table on 13:37 - Jun 17 by Swansea_Blue |
Chicken & egg innit. More infections = more tests. |
Well I'm assuming the rate in the graph is per 100,000 population of the uk rather than per 100,000 tests. | | | |
| Boris has taken us back to the top of the table on 13:43 - Jun 17 with 2018 views | Ely_Blue |
Ah yes!
So if we are going to try and suppress this by doing surge testing then of course we are going to find more people testing positive!
Maybe try also to post figures on number of tests per 100k of the population alongside these figures and also how many of these positive cases (positive tests) are individual as we know that people have multiple tests and I’m sure those results aren’t removed and are simply double reported at a 10 day interval
This page may help you with some of the answers
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
[Post edited 17 Jun 2021 13:45]
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| I'm not suggesting that you work out the number of cases.... on 13:47 - Jun 17 with 1998 views | Bloots |
| I'm looking at the overall figures..... on 13:25 - Jun 17 by StokieBlue |
The accepted way since the start of the pandemic to look at these numbers is a 7 day rolling average which is what the graph shows and what the cases per 100,000 is based on.
I've never seen "positivity rate per test" used as a way to extrapolate the number of cases, if you use the numbers you have cited and extrapolate out for the number of tests taken then the data is likely smoothed because those only testing people who look like they have C19 are going to get a higher "positivity rate per test" than a country doing a lot of testing of people without symptoms. It would also only be of value if the "positivity rate per test" is based over a short and recent timescale - positive tests 6 months ago are irrelevant - is that the case for the data you've used?
Just seems odd to me to look for a different way of reporting the cases to the accepted on which has been used. What's the rationale? Perhaps it's a better way of doing it so I am interested to hear.
SB [Post edited 17 Jun 2021 13:29]
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....by extrapolating the positivity rate, I'm just saying that if other countries tested as much as we do then their number of cases would undoubtedly be far higher.
It could be argued that the testing regime used by others is only picking up symptomatic cases rather than ours which is picking up asymptomatic cases and therefore far higher numbers.
The whole premise of how this condition spreads is that it is in "waves" we have always got these waves before mainland Europe has, so citing data from this week when we are hitting a wave seems slightly opportunistic to me.
The weekly/daily data would have looked very different a month ago in comparison to other counties and it will look different again in a few weeks.
That's my point really, it's not a case of arguing just a different view. | |
| TWTD Leadership Group/Elite Level Supporter/Anti-Bullying Crusader |
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| I'm not suggesting that you work out the number of cases.... on 13:54 - Jun 17 with 1961 views | XYZ |
| I'm not suggesting that you work out the number of cases.... on 13:47 - Jun 17 by Bloots |
....by extrapolating the positivity rate, I'm just saying that if other countries tested as much as we do then their number of cases would undoubtedly be far higher.
It could be argued that the testing regime used by others is only picking up symptomatic cases rather than ours which is picking up asymptomatic cases and therefore far higher numbers.
The whole premise of how this condition spreads is that it is in "waves" we have always got these waves before mainland Europe has, so citing data from this week when we are hitting a wave seems slightly opportunistic to me.
The weekly/daily data would have looked very different a month ago in comparison to other counties and it will look different again in a few weeks.
That's my point really, it's not a case of arguing just a different view. |
Aren't the vast majority of UK "tests" the unreliable lateral flow tests?
I think you're just buying into government spin with that one.
Difficult to spin the numbers of dead people. |  | | |
| I'm not suggesting that you work out the number of cases.... on 14:00 - Jun 17 with 1922 views | Ftnfwest |
| I'm not suggesting that you work out the number of cases.... on 13:54 - Jun 17 by XYZ |
Aren't the vast majority of UK "tests" the unreliable lateral flow tests?
I think you're just buying into government spin with that one.
Difficult to spin the numbers of dead people. |
Yes and the vast majority of cases are in kids and young adults at the moment who are taking those tests (but are unvaccinated of course for the most part). So who knows tbh. At least the death rate is still very low thankfully, likely for the same reasons. | | | |
| I'm not suggesting that you work out the number of cases.... on 14:02 - Jun 17 with 1907 views | Swansea_Blue |
| I'm not suggesting that you work out the number of cases.... on 13:54 - Jun 17 by XYZ |
Aren't the vast majority of UK "tests" the unreliable lateral flow tests?
I think you're just buying into government spin with that one.
Difficult to spin the numbers of dead people. |
Lateral flow tests aren't included in the stats I believe, only PCB ones. At least that was the case unless it's changed recently. | |
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| Boris has taken us back to the top of the table on 14:05 - Jun 17 with 1884 views | BlueNomad |
| Boris has taken us back to the top of the table on 12:44 - Jun 17 by footers |
In his own words: 'totally fcking useles'. |
We could all save ourselves a lot of effort trying to figure this issue out by just acknowledging the accuracy of this one comment. |  | | |
| Boris has taken us back to the top of the table on 14:06 - Jun 17 with 1885 views | Swansea_Blue |
I think without the vaccines this recent increase in cases would have been very worrying indeed. Let's hope these "tentative signs" of a slowing are indeed the case and not just a localised short term blip. I think we'll all go nuts if we have to go into a strict or strictish lockdown again. | |
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| I'm not "buying into" anything..... on 14:07 - Jun 17 with 1875 views | Bloots |
| I'm not suggesting that you work out the number of cases.... on 13:54 - Jun 17 by XYZ |
Aren't the vast majority of UK "tests" the unreliable lateral flow tests?
I think you're just buying into government spin with that one.
Difficult to spin the numbers of dead people. |
....I'm looking at data.
It's nothing to do with the government, I don't need those twangers to tell me what think.
But just spouting numbers without any sort of context does no good at all.
There is no spin on anything, 127,926 have died with Covid. RIP to them all.
18 counties have a worse death rate than us and 50 countries have a worse infection rate than us, that isn't spin it's a fact. | |
| TWTD Leadership Group/Elite Level Supporter/Anti-Bullying Crusader |
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| I'm not "buying into" anything..... on 14:24 - Jun 17 with 1810 views | XYZ |
| I'm not "buying into" anything..... on 14:07 - Jun 17 by Bloots |
....I'm looking at data.
It's nothing to do with the government, I don't need those twangers to tell me what think.
But just spouting numbers without any sort of context does no good at all.
There is no spin on anything, 127,926 have died with Covid. RIP to them all.
18 counties have a worse death rate than us and 50 countries have a worse infection rate than us, that isn't spin it's a fact. |
18 countries including Gibraltar (94 deaths in pop'n 33,681) and San Marino (90 deaths in pop'n 33,999).
You compare the UK to San Marino and talk about context? | | | |
| Well of course if you exclude..... on 14:30 - Jun 17 with 1769 views | Bloots |
| I'm not "buying into" anything..... on 14:24 - Jun 17 by XYZ |
18 countries including Gibraltar (94 deaths in pop'n 33,681) and San Marino (90 deaths in pop'n 33,999).
You compare the UK to San Marino and talk about context? |
....all the countries in the world that have a higher death rate than us then you will indeed get the "context" that you are looking for.
Lets just accept that apart from 18 (edited) other countries of varying size, population density and economic prosperity, we have the worst death rate.
Whatever fits your agenda. [Post edited 17 Jun 2021 15:04]
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| TWTD Leadership Group/Elite Level Supporter/Anti-Bullying Crusader |
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| I'm not suggesting that you work out the number of cases.... on 14:47 - Jun 17 with 1719 views | StokieBlue |
| I'm not suggesting that you work out the number of cases.... on 13:47 - Jun 17 by Bloots |
....by extrapolating the positivity rate, I'm just saying that if other countries tested as much as we do then their number of cases would undoubtedly be far higher.
It could be argued that the testing regime used by others is only picking up symptomatic cases rather than ours which is picking up asymptomatic cases and therefore far higher numbers.
The whole premise of how this condition spreads is that it is in "waves" we have always got these waves before mainland Europe has, so citing data from this week when we are hitting a wave seems slightly opportunistic to me.
The weekly/daily data would have looked very different a month ago in comparison to other counties and it will look different again in a few weeks.
That's my point really, it's not a case of arguing just a different view. |
Thanks for the clarification.
"The whole premise of how this condition spreads is that it is in "waves" we have always got these waves before mainland Europe has, so citing data from this week when we are hitting a wave seems slightly opportunistic to me."
That is true although a lot of the wave dynamics are artificial. For instance, the Delta variant now has an R of at least 6.5 (in comparison to 2.5 for the original strain of C19) so if there were no restrictions the waves would be a lot longer. For instance, Brazil is still nearly at 1000 cases a day, their wave has an incredibly long tail.
SB [Post edited 17 Jun 2021 14:48]
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| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Well of course if you exclude..... on 14:48 - Jun 17 with 1711 views | XYZ |
| Well of course if you exclude..... on 14:30 - Jun 17 by Bloots |
....all the countries in the world that have a higher death rate than us then you will indeed get the "context" that you are looking for.
Lets just accept that apart from 18 (edited) other countries of varying size, population density and economic prosperity, we have the worst death rate.
Whatever fits your agenda. [Post edited 17 Jun 2021 15:04]
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"He's got an agenda" is always a tell.
I added information to your basic fact - I think the context here is how the UK stands against similarly sized european countries - of your 18, 9 have populations under 10m - two under 40k.
Your "here's my stat and that's that" approach comes across as a little uninquisitive.
Probably a typo on your part, but 50 countries (of varying size, etc) don't have worse death rates than us. I won't accuse you of having an agenda on that one, just being too keen to post what you thought was a clever put-down to check what you were writing. | | | |
| Boris has taken us back to the top of the table on 15:03 - Jun 17 with 1639 views | Geomorph |
yeah but that trade deal.... |  | | |
| It was indeed a typo..... on 15:04 - Jun 17 with 1631 views | Bloots |
| Well of course if you exclude..... on 14:48 - Jun 17 by XYZ |
"He's got an agenda" is always a tell.
I added information to your basic fact - I think the context here is how the UK stands against similarly sized european countries - of your 18, 9 have populations under 10m - two under 40k.
Your "here's my stat and that's that" approach comes across as a little uninquisitive.
Probably a typo on your part, but 50 countries (of varying size, etc) don't have worse death rates than us. I won't accuse you of having an agenda on that one, just being too keen to post what you thought was a clever put-down to check what you were writing. |
....death rates and infection rates mixed up. Amended.
I'd be interested to know what you think me saying that you have "an agenda" is a "tell" of?
It's good to know that you have selected which countries that you are happy to compare us with.
Can we include Italy? Or do they eat too much pasta for your purposes? | |
| TWTD Leadership Group/Elite Level Supporter/Anti-Bullying Crusader |
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