| xG from the games so far... 11:06 - Aug 22 with 2288 views | pointofblue |
Ipswich 1.27 - 0.71 Morecambe
Burton 1.44 - 1.45 Ipswich
Cheltenham 0.84 - 1.04 Ipswich
Ipswich 1.51 - 1.47 MK Dons
Positively, we should have outscored every team we’ve played so far (albeit Burton by 0.01) though there is only clear delight against Morecambe and Cheltenham. Just as a comparison, this is Wednesday’s record as current leaders:
v Charlton ‘L’ 1.14 - 0.22 (drew 0-0)
v Doncaster ‘L’ 0.7 - 1.64 (won 2-0)
v Fleetwood ‘W’ 2.11 - 0.56 (won 1-0)
v Rotherham ‘L’ 1.71 - 1.41 (won 2-0)
Wycombe have ‘won’ three of their games on xG but ‘lost’ at Cheltenham whilst Portsmouth have the same record.
In other words, the xG suggests we should be able to turn it around in terms of results and Wednesday, like Burton yesterday, will eventually be caught out. Hopefully we continue to continue to create going forward leading more conversions as the players get on the same wavelength.
Edit - all figures from:
https://twitter.com/xg_data
[Post edited 22 Aug 2021 11:06]
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| xG from the games so far... on 11:10 - Aug 22 with 2204 views | chrismakin |
Wednesday going through the Lambert start then? |  |
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| xG from the games so far... on 11:15 - Aug 22 with 2200 views | pointofblue |
| xG from the games so far... on 11:10 - Aug 22 by chrismakin |
Wednesday going through the Lambert start then? |
Possibly. Looking at their squad they should be dominating matches but at the moment they’re riding their luck somewhat. | |
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| xG from the games so far... on 11:18 - Aug 22 with 2175 views | brazil1982 |
What is xG? | | | |
| xG from the games so far... on 11:21 - Aug 22 with 2149 views | pointofblue |
| xG from the games so far... on 11:18 - Aug 22 by brazil1982 |
What is xG? |
Apologies, expected goals in a game. It takes into account the quality of the chances as well as the quantity - so even though Bonne’s chance v Cheltenham and a speculative shot from 20 yards that is straight at the keeper would both be an attempt on target Bonne’s opportunity would carry more weight in a xG scenario. | |
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| xG from the games so far... on 11:22 - Aug 22 with 2141 views | WD19 |
| xG from the games so far... on 11:18 - Aug 22 by brazil1982 |
What is xG? |
Is the answer ‘a not very reliable indicator’!? |  | | |
| xG from the games so far... on 11:27 - Aug 22 with 2108 views | pointofblue |
| xG from the games so far... on 11:22 - Aug 22 by WD19 |
Is the answer ‘a not very reliable indicator’!? |
Possibly not! Last year, Sunderland had the best xG for and against yet finished twelve points off Hull. | |
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| xG from the games so far... on 12:54 - Aug 22 with 1966 views | timothyeo |
| xG from the games so far... on 11:10 - Aug 22 by chrismakin |
Wednesday going through the Lambert start then? |
Not necessarily. If you have particularly clinical strikers and attackers you'll always out perform your xPG.
Its a bit too soon to draw anything from xpg, it tends to give you a good idea by January. | | | |
| xG from the games so far... on 14:00 - Aug 22 with 1861 views | jayessess |
Looks like the xG of a team that is either (a) a couple of minor things away from powering up the league or (b) has the worst 2 habits in football and is going nowhere as a result! |  |
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| xG from the games so far... on 14:42 - Aug 22 with 1793 views | Trequartista |
| xG from the games so far... on 11:18 - Aug 22 by brazil1982 |
What is xG? |
eXpected Gaffes |  |
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| xG from the games so far... on 14:53 - Aug 22 with 1769 views | ITFCBlues |
| xG from the games so far... on 12:54 - Aug 22 by timothyeo |
Not necessarily. If you have particularly clinical strikers and attackers you'll always out perform your xPG.
Its a bit too soon to draw anything from xpg, it tends to give you a good idea by January. |
Why January?!
It let's you know we're playing fairly well and probably should have more points currently. Especially when you consider alot of their big chances were from our mistakes |  |
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| xG from the games so far... on 20:50 - Aug 22 with 1584 views | timothyeo |
| xG from the games so far... on 14:53 - Aug 22 by ITFCBlues |
Why January?!
It let's you know we're playing fairly well and probably should have more points currently. Especially when you consider alot of their big chances were from our mistakes |
Well, because it'll give a better insight by then into how clinical our strikers are, or if chances are falling to the wrong people. You can also 'build' xPG up with several long range attempts equalling one close effort from the penalty spot. In those instances, the one chance is much enter than the 4 long range but xPG doesn't tell you that.
By January, we will have a more solid idea on our strikers ability. | | | |
| xG from the games so far... on 21:19 - Aug 22 with 1542 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
So, this tells us:
1) xG does not indicate who wins matches or what points a team picks up;
2) we are not taking our chances;
3) we are not effectively defending against opposition chances.
Not sure there is anything here that we hadn't already spotted. |  |
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| xG from the games so far... on 09:25 - Aug 23 with 1374 views | rickw |
I think it just shows we've had the opposite start to the season as we have done the last 2 years, where this time we've outperformed the opposition but haven't got the results.
If we can stay on the opposite form to previous L1 seasons things will get very good soon! |  |
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| xG from the games so far... on 09:33 - Aug 23 with 1350 views | NthQldITFC |
| xG from the games so far... on 14:42 - Aug 22 by Trequartista |
eXpected Gaffes |
eXecrable Gimmick? |  |
| # WE ARE STEALING THE FUTURE FROM OUR CHILDREN --- WE MUST CHANGE COURSE # | | Poll: | It's driving me nuts |
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| xG from the games so far... on 10:40 - Aug 23 with 1228 views | bluestandard |
Not completely sure how you read this, but to me it looks like 3 of the games ought to have been draws and we should have beaten Morecambe. Personally I think 6 points would be a bit more representative of how we’ve played. Not bad but not great. Sheff Wed stats show they’ve been significantly more threatening than their opponents in 3 games, with one even match. They have the overall points you’d expect even if it wasn’t exactly in line with xG. | | | |
| xG from the games so far... on 11:22 - Aug 23 with 1166 views | BtreeBlueBlood |
| xG from the games so far... on 11:10 - Aug 22 by chrismakin |
Wednesday going through the Lambert start then? |
Clean sheets are massive!
We are needing 3 to win 🤦ðŸ¼â€â™‚ï¸ |  | | |
| xG from the games so far... on 12:54 - Aug 23 with 1092 views | HighgateBlue |
| xG from the games so far... on 21:19 - Aug 22 by Nthsuffolkblue |
So, this tells us:
1) xG does not indicate who wins matches or what points a team picks up;
2) we are not taking our chances;
3) we are not effectively defending against opposition chances.
Not sure there is anything here that we hadn't already spotted. |
No, we /are/ taking chances effectively, according to those figures. Over the first four league games, our actual goals exceed our expected goals.
For me, the takeaways are:
1) we are not defending well, as we're letting in more goals than the opposition is expected to score based on their chances (this should be obvious to anyone watching the games); and
2) according to the Wizard of Oz behind the curtain of the xG machine, we're not actually creating that many good chances, compared with our possession dominance (in most games) and compared with the number of times we're pinging it across the box. The fact that we can miss a penalty and have the Bonne miss, both within the first 4 games, and still be outscoring our xG shows that our xG is perhaps not as high as it should be. |  | | |
| xG from the games so far... on 13:04 - Aug 23 with 1070 views | jayessess |
| xG from the games so far... on 12:54 - Aug 23 by HighgateBlue |
No, we /are/ taking chances effectively, according to those figures. Over the first four league games, our actual goals exceed our expected goals.
For me, the takeaways are:
1) we are not defending well, as we're letting in more goals than the opposition is expected to score based on their chances (this should be obvious to anyone watching the games); and
2) according to the Wizard of Oz behind the curtain of the xG machine, we're not actually creating that many good chances, compared with our possession dominance (in most games) and compared with the number of times we're pinging it across the box. The fact that we can miss a penalty and have the Bonne miss, both within the first 4 games, and still be outscoring our xG shows that our xG is perhaps not as high as it should be. |
Conventionally, under-performing xG Against would be an indication of either unusually efficient opposition forwards or unusually inefficient goalkeeping, not bad defending. | |
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