| The league table looked a lot better this time last week… 21:53 - Feb 1 with 3284 views | SitfcB |
But the games played column has been a mess for a while and will be.
Could’ve been worse tonight but now 9 points to 6th and played the same amount.
51 points to play for! It ain’t over ‘till it’s over.
Going to stop looking at the table for a few weeks I think ha.
COYB |  |
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| The league table looked a lot better this time last week… on 21:58 - Feb 1 with 3015 views | Illinoisblue |
Talking of tables, look at Swansea in the championship. They need a few more Flynn Downes by the look of it |  |
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| The league table looked a lot better this time last week… on 21:58 - Feb 1 with 3002 views | Wallingford_Boy |
Oxford look very strong, can’t see us chasing them down now. |  |
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| Hmmmmmm….. on 22:02 - Feb 1 with 2960 views | unstableblue |
6 points from next 2 is essential
But with Sheff Weds strengthening and finding a little form, Oxford recovering from a blip and MK Dons still looking strong it’s looking a bit bleak.
But looking at the fixtures below there is still room for our rivals to drop points. Will be very interesting to see if MK and Oxford get 6 from the next 2 games… can’t see that
MK
Lincoln (h)
Fleetwood (a)
Ipswich (h)!!
Sunderland (a)!!
Charlton (a)!!
Bolton (h)!
Wycombe (poor form of late)
Cambridge (a)
Shrews (h)
Lincoln (a)
Cheltenham (h)
Wigan (h)!!
Accrington (a)!
Oxford
Wigan (a)!!! - game in hand
Pompey (h)!
Accrington (a)!
Bolton (h)!
Charlton (a)!
Crewe (a)
Ipswich
Gills (h)
Donny (a)
MK Dons (a)!! - Morsy returns
Burton (h)
Cheltenham (h)
Morecombe (a) |  |
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| The league table looked a lot better this time last week… on 22:04 - Feb 1 with 2952 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
Indeed.
It was always going to be a very big ask to reach the play-offs when McKenna came in. However, if he continues to win 2 out of every 3, we will get there. It doesn't matter how the others do (enough of them will drop points somewhere), it is still down to how we do. |  |
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| Hmmmmmm….. on 22:04 - Feb 1 with 2945 views | SitfcB |
| Hmmmmmm….. on 22:02 - Feb 1 by unstableblue |
6 points from next 2 is essential
But with Sheff Weds strengthening and finding a little form, Oxford recovering from a blip and MK Dons still looking strong it’s looking a bit bleak.
But looking at the fixtures below there is still room for our rivals to drop points. Will be very interesting to see if MK and Oxford get 6 from the next 2 games… can’t see that
MK
Lincoln (h)
Fleetwood (a)
Ipswich (h)!!
Sunderland (a)!!
Charlton (a)!!
Bolton (h)!
Wycombe (poor form of late)
Cambridge (a)
Shrews (h)
Lincoln (a)
Cheltenham (h)
Wigan (h)!!
Accrington (a)!
Oxford
Wigan (a)!!! - game in hand
Pompey (h)!
Accrington (a)!
Bolton (h)!
Charlton (a)!
Crewe (a)
Ipswich
Gills (h)
Donny (a)
MK Dons (a)!! - Morsy returns
Burton (h)
Cheltenham (h)
Morecombe (a) |
Definitely need 6 from 6 in the next two.
Oxford played Wigan tonight, finished 1-1. Probably the best result. | |
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| The league table looked a lot better this time last week… on 22:04 - Feb 1 with 2941 views | ElderGrizzly |
| The league table looked a lot better this time last week… on 21:58 - Feb 1 by Illinoisblue |
Talking of tables, look at Swansea in the championship. They need a few more Flynn Downes by the look of it |
They seem to spend a lot of their game passing sideways and backwards according to their fans |  | | |
| The league table looked a lot better this time last week… on 22:05 - Feb 1 with 2932 views | SitfcB |
| The league table looked a lot better this time last week… on 22:04 - Feb 1 by Nthsuffolkblue |
Indeed.
It was always going to be a very big ask to reach the play-offs when McKenna came in. However, if he continues to win 2 out of every 3, we will get there. It doesn't matter how the others do (enough of them will drop points somewhere), it is still down to how we do. |
Yup, just need to concentrate on us but hard to not want small gains from when other play haha. [Post edited 1 Feb 2022 22:31]
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| Hmmmmmm….. on 22:07 - Feb 1 with 2911 views | ElderGrizzly |
| Hmmmmmm….. on 22:04 - Feb 1 by SitfcB |
Definitely need 6 from 6 in the next two.
Oxford played Wigan tonight, finished 1-1. Probably the best result. |
Gillingham got their win out the way tonight after their 7-2 defeat at the weekend.
That would usually be us providing that service | | | |
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| Hmmmmmm….. on 22:08 - Feb 1 with 2893 views | SitfcB |
| Hmmmmmm….. on 22:07 - Feb 1 by ElderGrizzly |
Gillingham got their win out the way tonight after their 7-2 defeat at the weekend.
That would usually be us providing that service |
I didn’t realise they were playing tonight until I saw it this morning, glad because thought Saturday was going to be his first game and as you say, the win.
Lucky win though apparently, hopefully we can do the job on them we did the other week. | |
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| Hmmmmmm….. on 22:10 - Feb 1 with 2831 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
| Hmmmmmm….. on 22:07 - Feb 1 by ElderGrizzly |
Gillingham got their win out the way tonight after their 7-2 defeat at the weekend.
That would usually be us providing that service |
That is important. I did fear the backlash. Instead they have played midweek while we haven't. Hopefully we won't miss Morsy too much in these two. | |
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| The league table looked a lot better this time last week… on 22:11 - Feb 1 with 2816 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
Bolton on a charge too. |  |
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| The league table looked a lot better this time last week… on 22:34 - Feb 1 with 2682 views | DavoIPB |
| The league table looked a lot better this time last week… on 22:11 - Feb 1 by BanksterDebtSlave |
Bolton on a charge too. |
Yep Sheffield wed looking more likely to reach play offs than us. Bolton could catch us as well. Although saying that nobody looks particularly good in this league. |  | | |
| The league table looked a lot better this time last week… on 22:57 - Feb 1 with 2591 views | Swansea_Blue |
| The league table looked a lot better this time last week… on 21:58 - Feb 1 by Illinoisblue |
Talking of tables, look at Swansea in the championship. They need a few more Flynn Downes by the look of it |
I went tonight. He was class (obligatory rash challenge and yellow card aside). Probably their best player; probably best on the pitch.
Swansea are heading the same way as us. They make Lambert’s team look exciting. |  |
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| The league table looked a lot better this time last week… on 07:54 - Feb 2 with 2278 views | Steve_M |
If we can keep picking up wins consistently then we'll at very least keep pace with that, we didn't win enough matches earlier in the season. Plenty of teams at the top still to play each other and take points off each other.
It's going to need a big win at MK or Oxford I suspect, or certainly to avoid defeat and win against the lower sides consistently. Six points from the next two going into MK away with 6,000 fans would look quite good again. |  |
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| The league table looked a lot better this time last week… on 09:20 - Feb 2 with 2057 views | DJR |
| The league table looked a lot better this time last week… on 22:04 - Feb 1 by Nthsuffolkblue |
Indeed.
It was always going to be a very big ask to reach the play-offs when McKenna came in. However, if he continues to win 2 out of every 3, we will get there. It doesn't matter how the others do (enough of them will drop points somewhere), it is still down to how we do. |
I am not sure that will be enough. If we win 12 of our remaining 17 games (which is just over 2 out of 3), we will have 77 points, but that means, for example, Oxford in sixth place will only have to win 9 and draw 1 to reach 78 points. So I think we will need better than 2 out of 3 because we cannot assume that the form of all of the teams in contention for a play-off spot will drop away. |  | | |
| Hmmmmmm….. on 09:45 - Feb 2 with 1958 views | gainsboroughblue |
| Hmmmmmm….. on 22:02 - Feb 1 by unstableblue |
6 points from next 2 is essential
But with Sheff Weds strengthening and finding a little form, Oxford recovering from a blip and MK Dons still looking strong it’s looking a bit bleak.
But looking at the fixtures below there is still room for our rivals to drop points. Will be very interesting to see if MK and Oxford get 6 from the next 2 games… can’t see that
MK
Lincoln (h)
Fleetwood (a)
Ipswich (h)!!
Sunderland (a)!!
Charlton (a)!!
Bolton (h)!
Wycombe (poor form of late)
Cambridge (a)
Shrews (h)
Lincoln (a)
Cheltenham (h)
Wigan (h)!!
Accrington (a)!
Oxford
Wigan (a)!!! - game in hand
Pompey (h)!
Accrington (a)!
Bolton (h)!
Charlton (a)!
Crewe (a)
Ipswich
Gills (h)
Donny (a)
MK Dons (a)!! - Morsy returns
Burton (h)
Cheltenham (h)
Morecombe (a) |
I'd be disappointed if we didn't take 15 points from our games. |  |
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| The league table looked a lot better this time last week… on 09:49 - Feb 2 with 1951 views | DMDC |
| The league table looked a lot better this time last week… on 22:04 - Feb 1 by Nthsuffolkblue |
Indeed.
It was always going to be a very big ask to reach the play-offs when McKenna came in. However, if he continues to win 2 out of every 3, we will get there. It doesn't matter how the others do (enough of them will drop points somewhere), it is still down to how we do. |
And you dont think we will drop many points too ? We will, we are far too inconsistent. No way are we making the top 6. |  | | |
| The league table looked a lot better this time last week… on 09:56 - Feb 2 with 1926 views | itfcjoe |
Got a mate who does a lot of statistical modelling, he has worked out how many points a team would need over a season from here on in to make the play offs to try and illustrate it better.
We effectively need a '103 point season' from here on in to get in the top 6.
I think that basically says where we are, and where we aren't going to finish. |  |
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| The league table looked a lot better this time last week… on 10:32 - Feb 2 with 1831 views | Guthrum |
| The league table looked a lot better this time last week… on 09:56 - Feb 2 by itfcjoe |
Got a mate who does a lot of statistical modelling, he has worked out how many points a team would need over a season from here on in to make the play offs to try and illustrate it better.
We effectively need a '103 point season' from here on in to get in the top 6.
I think that basically says where we are, and where we aren't going to finish. |
It's very difficult to model reliably*, however, due to the random factors which just crop up. Injuries and suspensions can cause progress to stagger, even just apparently inexplicable drops in form. Managerial changes can have both positive and negative effects. All of these things can happen at any time, upsetting the smooth flow of mathematical predictions.
It's also extremely rare that a team consistently and steadily accrues points throughout the season. Almost all consist of bursts of success interspersed with periods of average or lower performances. Thus making 100+ point form over a dozen or so games is not an out-of-the-ordinary achievement for teams making the top six in any season. It's almost a requirement.
So it is also still a realistic - if very demanding - target for Town.
* I have tried myself. Way too complex. [Post edited 2 Feb 2022 10:35]
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| The league table looked a lot better this time last week… on 10:41 - Feb 2 with 1795 views | billlm |
Give it up, we're a mess |  | | |
| The league table looked a lot better this time last week… on 10:49 - Feb 2 with 1773 views | Guthrum |
If we beat all the teams currently below us and lose to those above, we'll be on 77 points and in with a shout. | |
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| The league table looked a lot better this time last week… on 11:03 - Feb 2 with 1740 views | DanJam90 |
It's not just looking up the table but also the teams around us. Bolton worry me, done the double over us and won four on the bounce now, seem to be going from strength to strength. Its obvious but we need an unbeaten run of 6-8 games to really make ground, it's certainly not over but the MK and Burton games are biggies! Gillingham/Doncaster are must wins, big wins to build confidence and send out messages |  | | |
| The league table looked a lot better this time last week… on 11:08 - Feb 2 with 1707 views | Wallingford_Boy |
| The league table looked a lot better this time last week… on 22:34 - Feb 1 by DavoIPB |
Yep Sheffield wed looking more likely to reach play offs than us. Bolton could catch us as well. Although saying that nobody looks particularly good in this league. |
Rotherham do. | |
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| The league table looked a lot better this time last week… on 11:26 - Feb 2 with 1664 views | Bluroo |
The run of 4 wins in 6 since K Mac took over might not fire belief but the picture is clouded by the detail that a most of the teams we're chasing had games in hand.
The facts are that in the 6 game form table, we've outscored Oxford by 4 (Wednesday by 3, Wycombe and Plymouth by 2). If we can go on another run of 4 in 6 now, through February, the gap to 6th place is going to be probably somewhere in the region of 3-5 points.
It looks bad because we just lost a game but we do not need to win every game. The form we're on currently (2ppg) is statistically probably sufficient to get us into the PO's.
Not saying 2ppg is sufficient or we'll carry that on for the rest of the season. I just see little sense in being sure of failure when it's not an inconceivable possibility we'll succeed. | | | |
| The league table looked a lot better this time last week… on 11:53 - Feb 2 with 1619 views | textbackup |
| The league table looked a lot better this time last week… on 10:41 - Feb 2 by billlm |
Give it up, we're a mess |
We were* in a mess
Corrected it for you |  |
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