| Apoliticals! Ye be warned, fer there be politics lurkin' within this thread... 06:32 - Jun 2 with 3785 views | Kropotkin123 |
Most elections I come on here and give my two cents worth regarding democracy in the UK. Specifically taking votes from one party and adding it to another. It is a system that favours the leading party, but often the second place gains at a slightly lesser rate.
This time I come with the same warnings, but also some simpler solutions than what’s been suggested before.
Before we get into that. I want to say that first past the post served us well for a time. I’ve gone back and assessed the last 50 elections and here is what I found out. The last time the leading party did not steal votes from another party was in 1910. Before then it was pretty common fo rvotes not to be stolen. Indeed 7 elections in a row, no votes were stolen by the main party.
In 1874 the Conservative government of Benjamin Disraeli won the election as were under-represented by 1.40. So for every one person representing them in parliament, they should have had 1.40. Nowadays it has flipped on its head, the ruling parties have inflated majorities. Tony Blair’s 2005 election victory was the worst offender. They had a misrepresentation of 0.64. So for every 1 MP, they should have had 0.64. You can see these peaks and troughs represented clearly on this graph. 1 is fair.
The small numbers can give a distorted view though, that it isn’t that bad. But we can be talking up to 6.3m people’s votes being unjustly transferred to the ruling party, out of 31m voters. It is theft, and it translates into a mandate that these 6.3m people did not give.
Here’s the full list:
We have a strong liberal tradition in this country that goes back to the days of John Locke. Modern liberal thought is being suppressed. When Tony Blair came to power in 2005 he got 55% of the seats, with 35% of the vote! The lib Dems got 9% of the seats, from 22% of the vote.
It is the same today. At the last election the Lib Dems got 11 seats, when they should have had 75. The Green Party got one seat, when they should have been represented by 17.
We need a shake up in politics, but we are likely to see the same pattern of over-representation at the next election.
A simple fix would be to weight the MPs votes. So, using the last election as an example, when the Green MP votes, they should not vote with the power of 1 point, they vote with the power of 16.97 points. When a Conservative MP votes, they should not vote with the power of 1 point, but with the power of 0.78 points. This brings the MPs representative power back into proportion with the votes. It will make people think more about voting for the people they want to be running the country and representing them.
As I’ve said in years gone by, I do not give this opinion as a request. I do not recognise the leading party’s right to take away the vote from people and unjustly add it to their pile.
EDIT: If you'd prefer to look at the spreadsheets directly, DM me and I'll link you. [Post edited 2 Jun 2024 6:35]
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| Apoliticals! Ye be warned, fer there be politics lurkin' within this thread... on 08:37 - Jun 2 with 3004 views | Swansea_Blue |
That Green Party stat is ridiculous. Presumably it’s because (Lucas’ seat apart) they only ever pick up a minority of votes across all the other constituencies. Makes you wonder why Brighton is so different. Why can they field someone who can gain the majority in Brighton but can’t find anyone else who can get close anywhere else? And on top of that Lucas keeps increasing her majority. She is impressive, so I wonder if it’s purely down to her popularity rather than the Green Party policies |  |
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| Apoliticals! Ye be warned, fer there be politics lurkin' within this thread... on 08:59 - Jun 2 with 2965 views | DJR |
| Apoliticals! Ye be warned, fer there be politics lurkin' within this thread... on 08:37 - Jun 2 by Swansea_Blue |
That Green Party stat is ridiculous. Presumably it’s because (Lucas’ seat apart) they only ever pick up a minority of votes across all the other constituencies. Makes you wonder why Brighton is so different. Why can they field someone who can gain the majority in Brighton but can’t find anyone else who can get close anywhere else? And on top of that Lucas keeps increasing her majority. She is impressive, so I wonder if it’s purely down to her popularity rather than the Green Party policies |
Not that I support them, but UKIP were entitled to feel even more aggrieved.
As regards Brighton, I think it's down to the type of people who live there, and this is a good article about it.
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2010/may/19/brighton-britains-coolest-c
I might add that I spent the first seven years of my life in Brighton, still visit it fairly regularly and am very fond of it.
EDIT: I particularly liked this quote.
"There's definitely a sense that Brighton is a city in which it would take an almost superhuman effort to be a misfit" [Post edited 2 Jun 2024 10:00]
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| Apoliticals! Ye be warned, fer there be politics lurkin' within this thread... on 09:41 - Jun 2 with 2862 views | Churchman |
| Apoliticals! Ye be warned, fer there be politics lurkin' within this thread... on 08:59 - Jun 2 by DJR |
Not that I support them, but UKIP were entitled to feel even more aggrieved.
As regards Brighton, I think it's down to the type of people who live there, and this is a good article about it.
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2010/may/19/brighton-britains-coolest-c
I might add that I spent the first seven years of my life in Brighton, still visit it fairly regularly and am very fond of it.
EDIT: I particularly liked this quote.
"There's definitely a sense that Brighton is a city in which it would take an almost superhuman effort to be a misfit" [Post edited 2 Jun 2024 10:00]
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I love this line:
‘Keith Waterhouse's famous judgment that it's a town that always looks as if it's helping police with their inquiries. It now looks like a town that's helping police with its inquiries while enjoying an organic, locally sourced panini.’
Whatever the criticisms, I’ve always liked Brighton. It’s just a nice place to be. The cricket ground is a good one too. |  | | |
| Apoliticals! Ye be warned, fer there be politics lurkin' within this thread... on 09:43 - Jun 2 with 2857 views | GlasgowBlue |
Very interesting post thanks. I’m an advocate of proportional representation and the example you give of the Lib/dems and Greens having more seats is a valid one. However, the flip side to that is we would have had bigger representation in Parliament for UKIP and reform.
Reform obviously stood many of its candidates down in 2019, which contributed to Johnson getting a huge majority but it would be interesting to see your figures on UKIP parliamentary representation in 2010 and 2015. |  |
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| Apoliticals! Ye be warned, fer there be politics lurkin' within this thread... on 09:56 - Jun 2 with 2793 views | iamatractorboy |
| Apoliticals! Ye be warned, fer there be politics lurkin' within this thread... on 08:37 - Jun 2 by Swansea_Blue |
That Green Party stat is ridiculous. Presumably it’s because (Lucas’ seat apart) they only ever pick up a minority of votes across all the other constituencies. Makes you wonder why Brighton is so different. Why can they field someone who can gain the majority in Brighton but can’t find anyone else who can get close anywhere else? And on top of that Lucas keeps increasing her majority. She is impressive, so I wonder if it’s purely down to her popularity rather than the Green Party policies |
I'm all in favour of PR. Any kind of analysis like this needs to consider what influence the current FPTP system has on people's votes though. How many people have voted tactically? Not even sure if that's answerable.
After one of the post-Brexit elections (2019?), when the Tories got their large majority, Johnson came out with some rubbish (I know, perish the thought) about how it was confirmation of the public's support for Brexit. Of course, what he didn't say was that the Tories/other Brexit supporting parties got fewer actual votes than Labour/Greens/SNP/Lib Dems. |  | | |
| Apoliticals! Ye be warned, fer there be politics lurkin' within this thread... on 10:03 - Jun 2 with 2755 views | ArnoldMoorhen |
| Apoliticals! Ye be warned, fer there be politics lurkin' within this thread... on 09:43 - Jun 2 by GlasgowBlue |
Very interesting post thanks. I’m an advocate of proportional representation and the example you give of the Lib/dems and Greens having more seats is a valid one. However, the flip side to that is we would have had bigger representation in Parliament for UKIP and reform.
Reform obviously stood many of its candidates down in 2019, which contributed to Johnson getting a huge majority but it would be interesting to see your figures on UKIP parliamentary representation in 2010 and 2015. |
UKIP voters were represented in Parliament by approx 30 ERG Tories. If it is argued otherwise, then it could be counter-argued that those 30 had the most skewed graph of all in terms of votes cast to power and influence on the British political landscape. | | | |
| Apoliticals! Ye be warned, fer there be politics lurkin' within this thread... on 10:23 - Jun 2 with 2691 views | DJR |
| Apoliticals! Ye be warned, fer there be politics lurkin' within this thread... on 09:41 - Jun 2 by Churchman |
I love this line:
‘Keith Waterhouse's famous judgment that it's a town that always looks as if it's helping police with their inquiries. It now looks like a town that's helping police with its inquiries while enjoying an organic, locally sourced panini.’
Whatever the criticisms, I’ve always liked Brighton. It’s just a nice place to be. The cricket ground is a good one too. |
I sometimes refer to it as Camden-by-Sea, not something I think I've heard anyone else say. | | | |
| Apoliticals! Ye be warned, fer there be politics lurkin' within this thread... on 10:25 - Jun 2 with 2683 views | DJR |
| Apoliticals! Ye be warned, fer there be politics lurkin' within this thread... on 09:43 - Jun 2 by GlasgowBlue |
Very interesting post thanks. I’m an advocate of proportional representation and the example you give of the Lib/dems and Greens having more seats is a valid one. However, the flip side to that is we would have had bigger representation in Parliament for UKIP and reform.
Reform obviously stood many of its candidates down in 2019, which contributed to Johnson getting a huge majority but it would be interesting to see your figures on UKIP parliamentary representation in 2010 and 2015. |
The coalition government would also have taken place under proportional representation but, being someone whose vote counts for nothing, I don't think the possibility of parties we don't like getting seats is a valid argument against PR, if one truly believes in liberal democracy. | | | |
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| Apoliticals! Ye be warned, fer there be politics lurkin' within this thread... on 10:57 - Jun 2 with 2646 views | bournemouthblue |
The problem with proportional representation and I'm not saying it's something you are specifically advocating here having skimmed your post is that enables the Brexit Parties of this world
We had it for European elections and it soon became hijacked by the populists
It would upset the apple cart for sure and the established parties would lose their historic power and base
It can create quite a turbulent political scene which would be even wilder in this social media era
I fear we'd end up with a fairly hard right wing coalition who make the Tory 2019 MP's look like liberals |  |
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| Apoliticals! Ye be warned, fer there be politics lurkin' within this thread... on 11:01 - Jun 2 with 2627 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Apoliticals! Ye be warned, fer there be politics lurkin' within this thread... on 10:03 - Jun 2 by ArnoldMoorhen |
UKIP voters were represented in Parliament by approx 30 ERG Tories. If it is argued otherwise, then it could be counter-argued that those 30 had the most skewed graph of all in terms of votes cast to power and influence on the British political landscape. |
It could be argued. But those ERG Tories were still elected in 2010 and 2015 when UKip were polling decent numbers nationally, they won the EU elections in 2014, so I would be interested in seeing how many seats they would have won during that period under PR.
This isn't a thread about who we like and who we dislike in British politics. It's about how dated FPTP is and examples were given on how it affected the LibDems and the Greens. I'd like to see the flip side.
Either way, it doesn't change my mind about the need for a proportional method of electing our MP's. | |
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| Apoliticals! Ye be warned, fer there be politics lurkin' within this thread... on 11:09 - Jun 2 with 2579 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Apoliticals! Ye be warned, fer there be politics lurkin' within this thread... on 10:25 - Jun 2 by DJR |
The coalition government would also have taken place under proportional representation but, being someone whose vote counts for nothing, I don't think the possibility of parties we don't like getting seats is a valid argument against PR, if one truly believes in liberal democracy. |
Indeed. | |
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| Apoliticals! Ye be warned, fer there be politics lurkin' within this thread... on 11:11 - Jun 2 with 2577 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Apoliticals! Ye be warned, fer there be politics lurkin' within this thread... on 10:57 - Jun 2 by bournemouthblue |
The problem with proportional representation and I'm not saying it's something you are specifically advocating here having skimmed your post is that enables the Brexit Parties of this world
We had it for European elections and it soon became hijacked by the populists
It would upset the apple cart for sure and the established parties would lose their historic power and base
It can create quite a turbulent political scene which would be even wilder in this social media era
I fear we'd end up with a fairly hard right wing coalition who make the Tory 2019 MP's look like liberals |
As DJR has already put it, just because we don't like the possible result should not be an excuse to reform an outdated electoral system which is not fit for purpose and leaves million of people disenfranchised. | |
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| Apoliticals! Ye be warned, fer there be politics lurkin' within this thread... on 11:47 - Jun 2 with 2543 views | Trequartista |
| Apoliticals! Ye be warned, fer there be politics lurkin' within this thread... on 10:57 - Jun 2 by bournemouthblue |
The problem with proportional representation and I'm not saying it's something you are specifically advocating here having skimmed your post is that enables the Brexit Parties of this world
We had it for European elections and it soon became hijacked by the populists
It would upset the apple cart for sure and the established parties would lose their historic power and base
It can create quite a turbulent political scene which would be even wilder in this social media era
I fear we'd end up with a fairly hard right wing coalition who make the Tory 2019 MP's look like liberals |
You can't just say I want democracy, but only if doesn't let in parties i don't like.
There are of course warnings from history of how fascists or communists can play the democratic system before demolishing it, but I think we ban parties like that pretty early on, or they have no support in this country to make a difference. |  |
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| Apoliticals! Ye be warned, fer there be politics lurkin' within this thread... on 12:19 - Jun 2 with 2507 views | DJR |
| Apoliticals! Ye be warned, fer there be politics lurkin' within this thread... on 11:11 - Jun 2 by GlasgowBlue |
As DJR has already put it, just because we don't like the possible result should not be an excuse to reform an outdated electoral system which is not fit for purpose and leaves million of people disenfranchised. |
Indeed it has shades of the arguments that were used to oppose the extension of the franchise. [Post edited 2 Jun 2024 12:23]
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| Apoliticals! Ye be warned, fer there be politics lurkin' within this thread... on 14:07 - Jun 2 with 2387 views | Kropotkin123 |
I can go back and get the data for UKIP. But I do think it kind of misses the point in so much as:
- They achieved what they set out to achieve in the FPTP system. So if they could have achieved it in a PR system, what's the difference?
- They destabilised the Conservatives to the point that they gave in to their fringe far-right elements of their party to chase votes withing the FPTP model, and put people in charge who had no clue how to manage a country (Liz Truss) within FPTP
- I think we would have had a more robust political system because elements like the liberals would have been better represented.
- I think a referendum on Europe would have happened either way. Kind of seemed like an inevitable consequence of the European elections. We couldn't indefinitely ignore those people and their campaign.
- I think part of the problem was ignoring that group for so long and not taking any smaller steps to appease them.
Like I say though, I can do it later (6am here now), I just don't really understand the purpose why. [Post edited 2 Jun 2024 14:08]
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| Submit your 1-24 league prediction here -https://www.twtd.co.uk/forum/514096/page:1 - for the opportunity to get a free Ipswich top. | | Poll: | Would you rather | | Blog: | Round Four: Eagle |
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| Apoliticals! Ye be warned, fer there be politics lurkin' within this thread... on 14:20 - Jun 2 with 2354 views | Swansea_Blue |
| Apoliticals! Ye be warned, fer there be politics lurkin' within this thread... on 08:59 - Jun 2 by DJR |
Not that I support them, but UKIP were entitled to feel even more aggrieved.
As regards Brighton, I think it's down to the type of people who live there, and this is a good article about it.
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2010/may/19/brighton-britains-coolest-c
I might add that I spent the first seven years of my life in Brighton, still visit it fairly regularly and am very fond of it.
EDIT: I particularly liked this quote.
"There's definitely a sense that Brighton is a city in which it would take an almost superhuman effort to be a misfit" [Post edited 2 Jun 2024 10:00]
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Nice little article! Maybe there is just something a bit quirky about Brighton residents. It's been a few years since I've been there. I spend a term teaching at Sussex uni In Falmer way back and would pop into town sometimes.
I was last there for the party conference season in 2013. So that would have been the Labour one. We had a fringe event hosted by Caroline flint, who didn't make a good impression on me, if I'm honest (maybe it was mutual, lol). I can't remember much else about it, except preferring to spend time on the sea front rather than stuck indoors (it was a glorious weather). | |
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| Apoliticals! Ye be warned, fer there be politics lurkin' within this thread... on 14:21 - Jun 2 with 2347 views | Kropotkin123 |
| Apoliticals! Ye be warned, fer there be politics lurkin' within this thread... on 10:57 - Jun 2 by bournemouthblue |
The problem with proportional representation and I'm not saying it's something you are specifically advocating here having skimmed your post is that enables the Brexit Parties of this world
We had it for European elections and it soon became hijacked by the populists
It would upset the apple cart for sure and the established parties would lose their historic power and base
It can create quite a turbulent political scene which would be even wilder in this social media era
I fear we'd end up with a fairly hard right wing coalition who make the Tory 2019 MP's look like liberals |
I do think this is a better quality point than people are giving you credit for. It isn't about what you like or dislike coming to power. It seems like what you are actually asking is would PR be less representative of the general public's political views? Is it robust enough (remain representative) to stand up to campaign issues?
My answer is that I think the system I suggest is. And what we have seen in our current system is that individual parties aren't robust enough and are vulnerable to populists. I think the strength comes from having our three main schools of thought represented. I think this is worth showing in more detail. So I will make the attempt when I can (at the whim of the newborn!). | |
| Submit your 1-24 league prediction here -https://www.twtd.co.uk/forum/514096/page:1 - for the opportunity to get a free Ipswich top. | | Poll: | Would you rather | | Blog: | Round Four: Eagle |
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| Apoliticals! Ye be warned, fer there be politics lurkin' within this thread... on 14:39 - Jun 2 with 2302 views | Pinewoodblue |
| Apoliticals! Ye be warned, fer there be politics lurkin' within this thread... on 09:43 - Jun 2 by GlasgowBlue |
Very interesting post thanks. I’m an advocate of proportional representation and the example you give of the Lib/dems and Greens having more seats is a valid one. However, the flip side to that is we would have had bigger representation in Parliament for UKIP and reform.
Reform obviously stood many of its candidates down in 2019, which contributed to Johnson getting a huge majority but it would be interesting to see your figures on UKIP parliamentary representation in 2010 and 2015. |
What about the system used for Scottish Assembly a mix of first past the post and proportional representation. Say two thirds FPTP one third proportional on a regional basis. Would mean much bigger constituencies as HoC isotope large as it is now. |  |
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| Apoliticals! Ye be warned, fer there be politics lurkin' within this thread... on 14:41 - Jun 2 with 2296 views | DJR |
| Apoliticals! Ye be warned, fer there be politics lurkin' within this thread... on 14:07 - Jun 2 by Kropotkin123 |
I can go back and get the data for UKIP. But I do think it kind of misses the point in so much as:
- They achieved what they set out to achieve in the FPTP system. So if they could have achieved it in a PR system, what's the difference?
- They destabilised the Conservatives to the point that they gave in to their fringe far-right elements of their party to chase votes withing the FPTP model, and put people in charge who had no clue how to manage a country (Liz Truss) within FPTP
- I think we would have had a more robust political system because elements like the liberals would have been better represented.
- I think a referendum on Europe would have happened either way. Kind of seemed like an inevitable consequence of the European elections. We couldn't indefinitely ignore those people and their campaign.
- I think part of the problem was ignoring that group for so long and not taking any smaller steps to appease them.
Like I say though, I can do it later (6am here now), I just don't really understand the purpose why. [Post edited 2 Jun 2024 14:08]
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Sorry. I didn't intend to put you to any work, and no need to do it. I was merely making the point that UKIP in general elections never had anyone elected, so a calculation for them based on seats actually won would appear not to work, and their supporters are entitled to feel even more disgruntled in terms of Parliamentary representation.
But as you suggest, they won the war. [Post edited 2 Jun 2024 17:03]
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| Apoliticals! Ye be warned, fer there be politics lurkin' within this thread... on 14:50 - Jun 2 with 2259 views | Radlett_blue |
FPTP has huge imperfections, as it can translate receiving no more than 35% of the vote, as with Blair & Labour in 2005, into 53% of the seats and a comfortable working majority. It also makes it very hard for a new party to get established, as piling up votes & coming 2nd or 3rd gets you n reward at all. The SNP is the mirror image of this, winning 5% of the vote but 9% of the seats because their vote was concentrated in Scotland. Obviously PR means that the composition of the Commons would reflect public opinion (& more people might vote for minority parties if they felt it wouldn't be a wasted vote) but the problem is that this would inevitably lead to unstable coalition governments & because PR benefits smaller parties, an inevitable strengthening of the extremist parties, both right & left. Italy & Israel are both good examples of coalitions where extremists have wielded a lot of power. |  |
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| Apoliticals! Ye be warned, fer there be politics lurkin' within this thread... on 16:06 - Jun 2 with 2218 views | You_Bloo_Right |
| Apoliticals! Ye be warned, fer there be politics lurkin' within this thread... on 14:50 - Jun 2 by Radlett_blue |
FPTP has huge imperfections, as it can translate receiving no more than 35% of the vote, as with Blair & Labour in 2005, into 53% of the seats and a comfortable working majority. It also makes it very hard for a new party to get established, as piling up votes & coming 2nd or 3rd gets you n reward at all. The SNP is the mirror image of this, winning 5% of the vote but 9% of the seats because their vote was concentrated in Scotland. Obviously PR means that the composition of the Commons would reflect public opinion (& more people might vote for minority parties if they felt it wouldn't be a wasted vote) but the problem is that this would inevitably lead to unstable coalition governments & because PR benefits smaller parties, an inevitable strengthening of the extremist parties, both right & left. Italy & Israel are both good examples of coalitions where extremists have wielded a lot of power. |
Italy has a mixed system with 37% of seats elected via FPTP and the remainder allocated via a Party List system.
As for the inevitable strengthening of extremists, we have seen that in the Conservative party for the last 10 years. UKIP used to be outside the Tory tent, p1ssing in. Since 2015 they have been in the tent and dumping on the country. That 80 seat majority should have been the ultimate in stability but far from it.
IMO STV and a little more honesty would take us forward, at least electorally. |  |
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| Apoliticals! Ye be warned, fer there be politics lurkin' within this thread... on 16:42 - Jun 2 with 2178 views | Pinewoodblue |
| Apoliticals! Ye be warned, fer there be politics lurkin' within this thread... on 14:50 - Jun 2 by Radlett_blue |
FPTP has huge imperfections, as it can translate receiving no more than 35% of the vote, as with Blair & Labour in 2005, into 53% of the seats and a comfortable working majority. It also makes it very hard for a new party to get established, as piling up votes & coming 2nd or 3rd gets you n reward at all. The SNP is the mirror image of this, winning 5% of the vote but 9% of the seats because their vote was concentrated in Scotland. Obviously PR means that the composition of the Commons would reflect public opinion (& more people might vote for minority parties if they felt it wouldn't be a wasted vote) but the problem is that this would inevitably lead to unstable coalition governments & because PR benefits smaller parties, an inevitable strengthening of the extremist parties, both right & left. Italy & Israel are both good examples of coalitions where extremists have wielded a lot of power. |
Why I would prefer a mix of FPTP & PR but isn't going to happen.. They only did it in Scotland so that, first time around, SNP had a fairer chance of representation. | |
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| Apoliticals! Ye be warned, fer there be politics lurkin' within this thread... on 20:56 - Jun 2 with 2000 views | You_Bloo_Right |
| Apoliticals! Ye be warned, fer there be politics lurkin' within this thread... on 19:24 - Jun 2 by Kropotkin123 |
Maybe this is more interesting and perhaps explains my focus on the liberal side of things.
It shows UKIP's big misrepresentation. But also the more systemic liberal supression.
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Just a simplistic breakdown of % of national vote (since 83 - I'm not that dedicated!) would have equated to this many seats for the LD:
Year LD
1983 165
1987 147
1992 116
1997 111
2001 121
2005 143
2010 150
2015 51
2017 48
2019 75
So a healthy support for the LDs fell off a cliff after the disasterous coalition and, of course, the drive for Brexit.
I assume the "big" UKIP disparity was in 2015 when "other" parties, if taken en masse, would have secured 113 seats based on their share of the vote (prior to 97 "other" would have been low single figure seats, after then, with the exception of 2015, we are looking at 30-40 or so seats).
Edit: What I find intriguing about all this is, had we had a PR voting system, would we have had a Liberal Party AND a Liberal Democratic Party; would we have had a Labour Party AND a New Labour Party, and equivalent divisions of the Tory Party? So would parties splinter rather than try to continue with the "broad church"? [Post edited 2 Jun 2024 21:02]
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| Apoliticals! Ye be warned, fer there be politics lurkin' within this thread... on 15:13 - Jun 3 with 1837 views | DJR |
Just received an email from the Electoral Reform Society which asked me to put in my postcode so I could find out when my seat last changed hands.
It was 114 years ago, 1910, when the seat changed from Liberal to Conservative.
There's no democracy where I live.
[Post edited 3 Jun 2024 15:46]
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