| It was Farage wot won it for Labour. 09:45 - Jul 5 with 7206 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
N/t |  |
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| It was Farage wot won it for Labour. on 09:49 - Jul 5 with 3676 views | Guthrum |
I really don't think that is the case. The Conservatives lost it for themselves, while Labour were immensely (unnecessarily) careful not to throw that away and the LibDems picked up the pieces. |  |
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| It was Farage wot won it for Labour. on 09:53 - Jul 5 with 3633 views | WeWereZombies |
Element of truth in that, many seats would have gone Conservative without Reform splitting their vote. |  |
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| It was Farage wot won it for Labour. on 09:54 - Jul 5 with 3620 views | PassionNotAnger |
| It was Farage wot won it for Labour. on 09:49 - Jul 5 by Guthrum |
I really don't think that is the case. The Conservatives lost it for themselves, while Labour were immensely (unnecessarily) careful not to throw that away and the LibDems picked up the pieces. |
You are of course correct but saying that wouldn’t give him as much attention that he so clearly craves.
Thought he’d still be celebrating that Corbyn won his seat rather than trying to edgy on here |  | | |
| It was Farage wot won it for Labour. on 09:55 - Jul 5 with 3607 views | N2_Blue |
It's getting a bit boring now, do you have to keep starting new posts. We all know what you think and don't really care. IIt's annoying to have the General posts cluttered with your repetitive stance |  |
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| It was Farage wot won it for Labour. on 09:56 - Jul 5 with 3604 views | Freddies_Ears |
| It was Farage wot won it for Labour. on 09:49 - Jul 5 by Guthrum |
I really don't think that is the case. The Conservatives lost it for themselves, while Labour were immensely (unnecessarily) careful not to throw that away and the LibDems picked up the pieces. |
Labour would have win anyway. The smart move was to do the deal with the LibDems, not to campaign against each other where there was a clear challenger to the Tory. LD end up with a huge seat total, costing the Tories in most places. Labour end up with a huge seat total relative to votes cast, as they deliberately didn't chase votes in around 15% of constituencies.
If Labour had challenged in those seats, their vote share would have been 3% higher overall, but Tories could well have held 40-50 additional seats. Smart & respectful by Davey & Starmer. | | | |
| Penalties don't count (n/t) on 09:57 - Jul 5 with 3587 views | wkj |
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| It was Farage wot won it for Labour. on 09:57 - Jul 5 with 3588 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
In 2019 people didn’t need to vote for Farage - Labour were happy to offer up their own bigoted, populist Brexiteer. | | | |
| It was Farage wot won it for Labour. on 10:00 - Jul 5 with 3535 views | BlueBadger |
Bet you’re dead chuffed, given you been supportive of his stance on a lot of things since 2016. |  |
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| It was Farage wot won it for Labour. on 10:12 - Jul 5 with 3479 views | homer_123 |
Hardly. The Tories lost it based on 14 years of government. [Post edited 5 Jul 2024 10:39]
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| It was Farage wot won it for Labour. on 10:25 - Jul 5 with 3400 views | _clive_baker_ |
Certainly can't have done any harm.
In absolute terms Labour got less votes this time around than Corbyn did in 2019. Tories lost about 50% of their votes that Johnson achieved, from 13m+ to <7m, it's absolutely staggering really. Lib Dem even got a few less, despite adding 50 odd seats, and SNP lost nearly half of theirs.
Seems like more people didn't bother, and Reform also scooped up a chunk. Stands to reason that Reform pinched more votes from the Tories than any other party, but I'm not sure what it would look like under FPTP had they not. Certainly some close fought seats that would swing back blue were it not for Reform, but a lot of LAB holds and wins seemed to be by significant majorities. |  | | |
| It was Farage wot won it for Labour. on 10:30 - Jul 5 with 3354 views | PhilTWTD |
| It was Farage wot won it for Labour. on 10:25 - Jul 5 by _clive_baker_ |
Certainly can't have done any harm.
In absolute terms Labour got less votes this time around than Corbyn did in 2019. Tories lost about 50% of their votes that Johnson achieved, from 13m+ to <7m, it's absolutely staggering really. Lib Dem even got a few less, despite adding 50 odd seats, and SNP lost nearly half of theirs.
Seems like more people didn't bother, and Reform also scooped up a chunk. Stands to reason that Reform pinched more votes from the Tories than any other party, but I'm not sure what it would look like under FPTP had they not. Certainly some close fought seats that would swing back blue were it not for Reform, but a lot of LAB holds and wins seemed to be by significant majorities. |
A lower turnout tends to happen when the polls suggest an election is a foregone conclusion. |  | | |
| It was Farage wot won it for Labour. on 10:32 - Jul 5 with 3328 views | Help |
| It was Farage wot won it for Labour. on 10:25 - Jul 5 by _clive_baker_ |
Certainly can't have done any harm.
In absolute terms Labour got less votes this time around than Corbyn did in 2019. Tories lost about 50% of their votes that Johnson achieved, from 13m+ to <7m, it's absolutely staggering really. Lib Dem even got a few less, despite adding 50 odd seats, and SNP lost nearly half of theirs.
Seems like more people didn't bother, and Reform also scooped up a chunk. Stands to reason that Reform pinched more votes from the Tories than any other party, but I'm not sure what it would look like under FPTP had they not. Certainly some close fought seats that would swing back blue were it not for Reform, but a lot of LAB holds and wins seemed to be by significant majorities. |
General voting numbers was down overall, as people did not bother |  |
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| It was Farage wot won it for Labour. on 10:40 - Jul 5 with 3268 views | Dubtractor |
Is it not a bit simplistic to imply that the reform vote all came from the tories, therefore was all the 'right wing' vote? Not saying that's your point bankster, but I have seen a lot of that.
My assumption is that Reform also will have taken a lot of working class voters from Labour, whereas in turn Labour will have take a lot of centrists from the tories. So unlikely that the reform vote was all from the tories - we've seen a few examples on here of traditional tories moving to Labour, as well as lots that I'm aware of on twitter etc, so this isn't some scenario I've just made up.
Not denying that the total Reform vote isn't a big story in terms of the election, but I just don't think it really works to just combine the tory and Reform vote and compare with the Labour total. |  |
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| It was Farage wot won it for Labour. on 10:44 - Jul 5 with 3219 views | Ryorry |
| It was Farage wot won it for Labour. on 10:32 - Jul 5 by Help |
General voting numbers was down overall, as people did not bother |
Also there seems to have been far more smart tactical voting (though I don’t have figures) than in previous GEs, probably assisted by the number of tactical voting sites and apps that sprang up. |  |
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| It was Farage wot won it for Labour. on 10:45 - Jul 5 with 3207 views | Guthrum |
| It was Farage wot won it for Labour. on 10:25 - Jul 5 by _clive_baker_ |
Certainly can't have done any harm.
In absolute terms Labour got less votes this time around than Corbyn did in 2019. Tories lost about 50% of their votes that Johnson achieved, from 13m+ to <7m, it's absolutely staggering really. Lib Dem even got a few less, despite adding 50 odd seats, and SNP lost nearly half of theirs.
Seems like more people didn't bother, and Reform also scooped up a chunk. Stands to reason that Reform pinched more votes from the Tories than any other party, but I'm not sure what it would look like under FPTP had they not. Certainly some close fought seats that would swing back blue were it not for Reform, but a lot of LAB holds and wins seemed to be by significant majorities. |
The unknowable element is if the Cons had absorbed the Reform electorate by apeing their policies, how many of the votes they did get would they have lost in the other direction (to Lab, LibDem, others or not turning out) as a result.
After all, while Reform eroded the Con vote, they didn't by any means erase it. Only snatching four of the latter's seats. | |
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| It was Farage wot won it for Labour. on 10:48 - Jul 5 with 3170 views | GeoffSentence |
| It was Farage wot won it for Labour. on 10:44 - Jul 5 by Ryorry |
Also there seems to have been far more smart tactical voting (though I don’t have figures) than in previous GEs, probably assisted by the number of tactical voting sites and apps that sprang up. |
Ipsos polling just before the election indicated around 17% of people would vote tactically.
That was from polling, so there will be a margin of error, but there or thereabouts seems likely. |  |
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| It was Farage wot won it for Labour. on 10:55 - Jul 5 with 3124 views | Ryorry |
| It was Farage wot won it for Labour. on 10:48 - Jul 5 by GeoffSentence |
Ipsos polling just before the election indicated around 17% of people would vote tactically.
That was from polling, so there will be a margin of error, but there or thereabouts seems likely. |
Thanks! | |
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| It was Farage wot won it for Labour. on 10:57 - Jul 5 with 3107 views | baxterbasics |
He didn't win it overall but he certainly helped put the boot in.
Most of those normally deep blue Suffolk and Essex seats would have remained so without the Reform factor. Liz Truss and Penny M likewise. Including Therese Coffee's. I note my constituency CS & NI returned Conservative again. |  |
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| It was Farage wot won it for Labour. on 10:59 - Jul 5 with 3083 views | GeoffSentence |
| It was Farage wot won it for Labour. on 10:57 - Jul 5 by baxterbasics |
He didn't win it overall but he certainly helped put the boot in.
Most of those normally deep blue Suffolk and Essex seats would have remained so without the Reform factor. Liz Truss and Penny M likewise. Including Therese Coffee's. I note my constituency CS & NI returned Conservative again. |
I wonder what would have happened if that muppet labour candidate hadn't bet against himself.
Still he won a few quid, so job done. | |
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| It was Farage wot won it for Labour. on 11:03 - Jul 5 with 3064 views | noggin |
The people have voted for (no) change. |  |
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| It was Farage wot won it for Labour. on 11:08 - Jul 5 with 3009 views | _clive_baker_ |
| It was Farage wot won it for Labour. on 10:32 - Jul 5 by Help |
General voting numbers was down overall, as people did not bother |
Yeah, turnout was lower.
I don't think the FPTP system helps with that, its not the way to engage the disenfranchised especially those in such safe seat areas. As Phil said the fact the outcome was so predictable probably doesn't help either. | | | |
| It was Farage wot won it for Labour. on 11:17 - Jul 5 with 2949 views | _clive_baker_ |
| It was Farage wot won it for Labour. on 10:45 - Jul 5 by Guthrum |
The unknowable element is if the Cons had absorbed the Reform electorate by apeing their policies, how many of the votes they did get would they have lost in the other direction (to Lab, LibDem, others or not turning out) as a result.
After all, while Reform eroded the Con vote, they didn't by any means erase it. Only snatching four of the latter's seats. |
They only snatched 4 of the seats, but their presence may well have prevented CON winning some more of those close fought ones. Impossible to know really, as what we're really saying is if Reform weren't there, then where (if anywhere) would their votes have gone instead, and what impact that would've had on the seats count. We can't reliably answer the first bit of that equation.
Ultimately I'm quite satisfied with the outcome. I voted Labour myself, not because I love what I saw from them but fundamentally because the way the Tories have 'led' us has been a shambles and a complete disregard for the people they purport to represent. That behaviour simply couldn't be rewarded with a cross in their box. If nothing else it was a chance to send a message to them or indeed any other government, that if you feck about you'll find out and be punished by the electorate. Hopefully it proves a good reminder to keep them honest. They're there to serve, not be served.
To be honest I had some sympathy initially for the Tories in terms of some of the wider circumstances and headwinds that would've been difficult to navigate for any government. I don't expect perfection of outcome, but I do at least expect honesty and integrity, that feels entirely controllable to me and we've not seen any of it. Feck em. | | | |
| It was Farage wot won it for Labour. on 11:23 - Jul 5 with 2887 views | crouchendyachtclub |
| It was Farage wot won it for Labour. on 09:53 - Jul 5 by WeWereZombies |
Element of truth in that, many seats would have gone Conservative without Reform splitting their vote. |
That didn't seem to be true going by the Reform voters they had on the Channel 4 coverage. They still seemed to be thoroughly anti Conservative, their choice then came down to what has (somehow) been painted as establishment Labour or (privately educated, city trading) man of the people Nigel Farage. | | | |
| It was Farage wot won it for Labour. on 11:24 - Jul 5 with 2872 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| It was Farage wot won it for Labour. on 09:54 - Jul 5 by PassionNotAnger |
You are of course correct but saying that wouldn’t give him as much attention that he so clearly craves.
Thought he’d still be celebrating that Corbyn won his seat rather than trying to edgy on here |
Simply repeating the view of a political analyst on Sky news before I went to work. He suggested hung parliament territory without the Reform/Farage factor. | |
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| It was Farage wot won it for Labour. on 11:33 - Jul 5 with 2811 views | Guthrum |
| It was Farage wot won it for Labour. on 11:17 - Jul 5 by _clive_baker_ |
They only snatched 4 of the seats, but their presence may well have prevented CON winning some more of those close fought ones. Impossible to know really, as what we're really saying is if Reform weren't there, then where (if anywhere) would their votes have gone instead, and what impact that would've had on the seats count. We can't reliably answer the first bit of that equation.
Ultimately I'm quite satisfied with the outcome. I voted Labour myself, not because I love what I saw from them but fundamentally because the way the Tories have 'led' us has been a shambles and a complete disregard for the people they purport to represent. That behaviour simply couldn't be rewarded with a cross in their box. If nothing else it was a chance to send a message to them or indeed any other government, that if you feck about you'll find out and be punished by the electorate. Hopefully it proves a good reminder to keep them honest. They're there to serve, not be served.
To be honest I had some sympathy initially for the Tories in terms of some of the wider circumstances and headwinds that would've been difficult to navigate for any government. I don't expect perfection of outcome, but I do at least expect honesty and integrity, that feels entirely controllable to me and we've not seen any of it. Feck em. |
Agree, all of that is speculation. But I do think if the Cons had veered further to the right in order to neutralise Reform, they'd have lost even more voters from the other end than they did (while those disgusted at sleaze still stayed at home), so wouldn't have done much, if at all, better overall. | |
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