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Wherever you stand on how the United Kingdom has responded, whether not quite following social distancing warrants a raised eyebrow or a hefty fine, whether we should expend every single resource to avoid a further single death or sanguinely accept the virus as a hit to be taken, the picture of a stadium full of people passing on in the short period of a little more than seven weeks is sombre.
We do not know how high the death toll would have been should no precautions have been taken, at the moment we do not know how high it will climb, and we could argue about how to run the statistics for as long as TWTD exists, the fact that Covid-19 is a significant contributor to mortality rates at the moment cannot be denied.
The reality is the current death toll is nearer 40,000. An entire Villa Park if you will.
The issue with deaths like this that aren’t ‘visible’ to the public, they don’t have the initial impact of something like a plane crash that might kill 100 times fewer people.
USA is likely to get near 200,000 deaths just in hospitals and could be double that if you add in the community deaths as people are afraid of the cost of heading to hospital.
It will only be in 10, 20 years this is really considered to be the absolute clusterf*ck of a tragedy it deserves to be seen as
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A sell out crowd at Portman Road - all dead on 10:19 - Apr 26 with 1884 views
A sell out crowd at Portman Road - all dead on 10:14 - Apr 26 by ElderGrizzly
The reality is the current death toll is nearer 40,000. An entire Villa Park if you will.
The issue with deaths like this that aren’t ‘visible’ to the public, they don’t have the initial impact of something like a plane crash that might kill 100 times fewer people.
USA is likely to get near 200,000 deaths just in hospitals and could be double that if you add in the community deaths as people are afraid of the cost of heading to hospital.
It will only be in 10, 20 years this is really considered to be the absolute clusterf*ck of a tragedy it deserves to be seen as
It is the potential for a chain of events that could follow that is a bigger worry.
A sell out crowd at Portman Road - all dead on 10:14 - Apr 26 by ElderGrizzly
The reality is the current death toll is nearer 40,000. An entire Villa Park if you will.
The issue with deaths like this that aren’t ‘visible’ to the public, they don’t have the initial impact of something like a plane crash that might kill 100 times fewer people.
USA is likely to get near 200,000 deaths just in hospitals and could be double that if you add in the community deaths as people are afraid of the cost of heading to hospital.
It will only be in 10, 20 years this is really considered to be the absolute clusterf*ck of a tragedy it deserves to be seen as
The other tragedy is that we could not call this pandemic unexpected, the dangers of a deadly virus that could not be treated with a vaccine or other medical treatment have been known for decades. Sixteen years ago the Astronomer Royal, Sir Martin Rees, predicted, with his futurologist hat on, that there would be a 'million dead event' within the next quarter century. I think he gave examples such as a nuclear strike or accident, climate change catastrophe; but also included contagion. It is looking like this is it.
To give this some context, it seems that typically about 45000 people in the UK die in a (winter) month. Reading this article, I was surprised by how much it has varied from year to year.
A sell out crowd at Portman Road - all dead on 11:44 - Apr 26 by WeWereZombies
The other tragedy is that we could not call this pandemic unexpected, the dangers of a deadly virus that could not be treated with a vaccine or other medical treatment have been known for decades. Sixteen years ago the Astronomer Royal, Sir Martin Rees, predicted, with his futurologist hat on, that there would be a 'million dead event' within the next quarter century. I think he gave examples such as a nuclear strike or accident, climate change catastrophe; but also included contagion. It is looking like this is it.
But, equally, it may never have happened. If the random mutation which made the disease transmissible to humans did not occur, or if it happened in a bat/pangolin which never encountered people. If it had taken place somewhere less well connected and thus not able to spread around the world so quickly (e.g. Ebola in West Africa)*. If it had not been so easily human-to-human transmissible (e.g. Zika). Quite a lot of ducks have to line up for things to kick off like this. Which is why it does not happen very often.
* Part of the reason why so many plagues historically have spread from China is because of its extensive and busy trade links, reaching the West even in ancient times.
A sell out crowd at Portman Road - all dead on 13:13 - Apr 26 by Guthrum
But, equally, it may never have happened. If the random mutation which made the disease transmissible to humans did not occur, or if it happened in a bat/pangolin which never encountered people. If it had taken place somewhere less well connected and thus not able to spread around the world so quickly (e.g. Ebola in West Africa)*. If it had not been so easily human-to-human transmissible (e.g. Zika). Quite a lot of ducks have to line up for things to kick off like this. Which is why it does not happen very often.
* Part of the reason why so many plagues historically have spread from China is because of its extensive and busy trade links, reaching the West even in ancient times.
"or if it happened in a bat/pangolin which never encountered people"
But didn't that happen precisely, as was forecast, because of increased human population density & demands/pressures on the food chain?
A sell out crowd at Portman Road - all dead on 13:24 - Apr 26 by Ryorry
"or if it happened in a bat/pangolin which never encountered people"
But didn't that happen precisely, as was forecast, because of increased human population density & demands/pressures on the food chain?
Even with that increased pressure, most of those animals do not come into direct, intimate contact with humans (i.e. close enough to pass on a virus). Sure, it will increase the chances, but from a very small number to still quite a small one.
A sell out crowd at Portman Road - all dead on 13:39 - Apr 26 by Guthrum
Even with that increased pressure, most of those animals do not come into direct, intimate contact with humans (i.e. close enough to pass on a virus). Sure, it will increase the chances, but from a very small number to still quite a small one.
What I'm trying to get at is that they did come into direct, intimate contact with humans because of the greater population density & ensuing food requirements - and that's likely to happen increasingly as human populations grow & pressure on space, food (and water - incl hygiene/cleaning usage) grows accordingly (edit: also likely because of climate change).
It's also a novel situation that I disagree with you - not something I'm used to!
A sell out crowd at Portman Road - all dead on 10:14 - Apr 26 by ElderGrizzly
The reality is the current death toll is nearer 40,000. An entire Villa Park if you will.
The issue with deaths like this that aren’t ‘visible’ to the public, they don’t have the initial impact of something like a plane crash that might kill 100 times fewer people.
USA is likely to get near 200,000 deaths just in hospitals and could be double that if you add in the community deaths as people are afraid of the cost of heading to hospital.
It will only be in 10, 20 years this is really considered to be the absolute clusterf*ck of a tragedy it deserves to be seen as
Signs of the lockdown basically being ignored in London now.
There is even an ice cream van outside the park.
The "clarification" of the rules last week seems to have been a big mistake. It was much better before that. Let's hope it doesn't start a second wave.
SB
Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula
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A sell out crowd at Portman Road - all dead on 14:18 - Apr 26 with 1497 views
A sell out crowd at Portman Road - all dead on 14:08 - Apr 26 by StokieBlue
Signs of the lockdown basically being ignored in London now.
There is even an ice cream van outside the park.
The "clarification" of the rules last week seems to have been a big mistake. It was much better before that. Let's hope it doesn't start a second wave.
SB
What is it about this Govt. that they are completely unable to communicate clearly at the very time it's most urgently needed ?!
I thought Rishi Sunak was excellent the few times he's appeared & actually showed the rest of them up with his clarity & authority, but haven't seen or heard him for a few days now (I didn't catch PM's questions on Weds., if he spoke then).
A sell out crowd at Portman Road - all dead on 13:13 - Apr 26 by Guthrum
But, equally, it may never have happened. If the random mutation which made the disease transmissible to humans did not occur, or if it happened in a bat/pangolin which never encountered people. If it had taken place somewhere less well connected and thus not able to spread around the world so quickly (e.g. Ebola in West Africa)*. If it had not been so easily human-to-human transmissible (e.g. Zika). Quite a lot of ducks have to line up for things to kick off like this. Which is why it does not happen very often.
* Part of the reason why so many plagues historically have spread from China is because of its extensive and busy trade links, reaching the West even in ancient times.
I think you should take a step back from the minutiae of what is alleged to be the cause of Covid-19 and look at this pandemic as a function of complexity. As you say, some ducks have to be in line for this pandemic to go quackers in the way it has done, But, as Ryorry points out later on, if there are increasing pressures on resources and increasing numbers continuously cranking up those pressures, then the ducks are going to fall into line for species other than humans; or even entities that no one can make their mind up as to whether they are life forms or not being able to find vectors that increase their preponderance.
The chap from the FT who has done the analysis on the figures and what they're likely to be if you add in the non hospital deaths has put forward the figure of 42,500.
As said below, that's just 73 short of Villa Park. Or to put it another way, every single person in Bury St Edmunds plus 560 others.
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