| International travel drove early death rates 10:29 - Feb 4 with 1978 views | StokieBlue |
I doubt this is a surprise to many but shows how a lot of countries got it wrong at the start of the pandemic by not closing off international travel:
https://www.abdn.ac.uk/news/14653/
1m international arrivals worked out to ~3.4% increase in mean daily C19 deaths during the first wave. Heathrow alone gets 1m international arrivals in about 8 to 10 days.
SB |  | | |  |
| International travel drove early death rates on 10:33 - Feb 4 with 1939 views | footers |
Proof if it was ever needed that just because you can do something, it doesn't mean you should. |  |
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| International travel drove early death rates on 10:44 - Feb 4 with 1904 views | Steve_M |
Indeed, it's been clear that ski resorts a year ago and holidays last Summer contributed to the spread of the virus across Europe. One of the most illustrative examples was that whichever half of The Netherlands had it's half-term a week earlier had many more cases than the other half, mostly picked up from ski resorts. |  |
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| International travel drove early death rates on 10:45 - Feb 4 with 1903 views | Pinewoodblue |
Returning holiday makers from Italian alps while we were worrying about people who had been to China. |  |
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| International travel drove early death rates on 10:46 - Feb 4 with 1892 views | Guthrum |
It's very tricky if they were assuming a homogenous virus, with uniform severity and transmissibility. We know (and have done since quite early on) that is - and was - not the case. It throws another very significant factor into the equation apart from the general health of the populace, international travel, etc.
What is unquestionably true is that Covid-19 did spread via air travel. But that occurred at such an early stage it is not practical to assert that anything could have been done about it - unless we close down flights every time there is the slightest hint of a new disease. By the time we were aware of the severity of the problem, it was already seeded and domestically reproducing in the UK, for example. |  |
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| International travel drove early death rates on 10:47 - Feb 4 with 1890 views | Guthrum |
| International travel drove early death rates on 10:45 - Feb 4 by Pinewoodblue |
Returning holiday makers from Italian alps while we were worrying about people who had been to China. |
Before we were more than dimly aware there was anything coming out of China, even. | |
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| International travel drove early death rates on 10:50 - Feb 4 with 1881 views | StokieBlue |
| International travel drove early death rates on 10:46 - Feb 4 by Guthrum |
It's very tricky if they were assuming a homogenous virus, with uniform severity and transmissibility. We know (and have done since quite early on) that is - and was - not the case. It throws another very significant factor into the equation apart from the general health of the populace, international travel, etc.
What is unquestionably true is that Covid-19 did spread via air travel. But that occurred at such an early stage it is not practical to assert that anything could have been done about it - unless we close down flights every time there is the slightest hint of a new disease. By the time we were aware of the severity of the problem, it was already seeded and domestically reproducing in the UK, for example. |
There is some truth in the fact that there are many unknowns.
However many countries totally shut down international arrivals and have done much better. In fact I believe that every country which did that has done substantially better than any country which didn't?
We could have largely prevented the Spanish variant which drove the majority of cases last September by simply not allowing foreign holidays over the summer. It's certainly arguable there was enough information by then to make that call.
SB | | | |
| International travel drove early death rates on 10:56 - Feb 4 with 1857 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
...and in other 'who would have thunk it's breaking news....
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/03/covid-coughing-study-suggests-nhs-
"The NHS has been urged to rethink safety for thousands of frontline staff after new research suggested that Covid patients’ coughing is putting them at far greater risk of catching the virus than previously thought.
The study found that coughing generated at least 10 times more infectious “aerosol” particles than speaking or breathing — which could explain why so many NHS staff have fallen ill during the pandemic." |  |
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| International travel drove early death rates on 10:58 - Feb 4 with 1840 views | footers |
| International travel drove early death rates on 10:56 - Feb 4 by BanksterDebtSlave |
...and in other 'who would have thunk it's breaking news....
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/03/covid-coughing-study-suggests-nhs-
"The NHS has been urged to rethink safety for thousands of frontline staff after new research suggested that Covid patients’ coughing is putting them at far greater risk of catching the virus than previously thought.
The study found that coughing generated at least 10 times more infectious “aerosol” particles than speaking or breathing — which could explain why so many NHS staff have fallen ill during the pandemic." |
The last 12 months have certainly shown we're not short on aerosols in this country. | |
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| International travel drove early death rates on 11:03 - Feb 4 with 1807 views | Swansea_Blue |
| International travel drove early death rates on 10:56 - Feb 4 by BanksterDebtSlave |
...and in other 'who would have thunk it's breaking news....
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/03/covid-coughing-study-suggests-nhs-
"The NHS has been urged to rethink safety for thousands of frontline staff after new research suggested that Covid patients’ coughing is putting them at far greater risk of catching the virus than previously thought.
The study found that coughing generated at least 10 times more infectious “aerosol” particles than speaking or breathing — which could explain why so many NHS staff have fallen ill during the pandemic." |
I can't believe they're not happy with their bin bags. And they've had claps too remember - they're bound to help.
Are the NHS Trusts/DoH liable for corporate manslaughter for those front line staff who've died through inadequate PPE? They should be. |  |
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| International travel drove early death rates on 11:13 - Feb 4 with 1789 views | Mookamoo |
Family in Bedford have spoken about the huge amount of Italians escaping the early lockdown in the north of Italy who came over to stay there.
It's one of the moments in history our decedents simply won't understand how unprepared we were. |  | | |
| International travel drove early death rates on 11:22 - Feb 4 with 1750 views | Pinewoodblue |
| International travel drove early death rates on 10:56 - Feb 4 by BanksterDebtSlave |
...and in other 'who would have thunk it's breaking news....
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/03/covid-coughing-study-suggests-nhs-
"The NHS has been urged to rethink safety for thousands of frontline staff after new research suggested that Covid patients’ coughing is putting them at far greater risk of catching the virus than previously thought.
The study found that coughing generated at least 10 times more infectious “aerosol” particles than speaking or breathing — which could explain why so many NHS staff have fallen ill during the pandemic." |
And,I in turn, why do many patients, have contracted Covid in hospital. | |
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| International travel drove early death rates on 11:28 - Feb 4 with 1740 views | Guthrum |
| International travel drove early death rates on 10:50 - Feb 4 by StokieBlue |
There is some truth in the fact that there are many unknowns.
However many countries totally shut down international arrivals and have done much better. In fact I believe that every country which did that has done substantially better than any country which didn't?
We could have largely prevented the Spanish variant which drove the majority of cases last September by simply not allowing foreign holidays over the summer. It's certainly arguable there was enough information by then to make that call.
SB |
That last paragraph is absolutely the case. One of my biggest beefs was that such information was not broadcast earlier, so people weren't properly equipped to make wise decisions, even aside from outright bans.
I don't think the UK could have shut down in time to stop us having a rough ride in the first wave, but thereafter it ought to have happened. Afraid I don't consider "having a holiday" good enough reason to go abroad during a pandemic*.
* Tho I appreciate people were told it was safe and so made a decision to go. | |
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| International travel drove early death rates on 11:56 - Feb 4 with 1706 views | noggin |
I had a debate with someone recently who had travelled to the UK to get married. He insisted it was essential travel because of all the plans they had made. A week or 2 later, the first cases of the British variant were discovered over here. Some people really are selfish knuts. |  |
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| International travel drove early death rates on 12:56 - Feb 4 with 1571 views | lowhouseblue |
I've posted it before but for me the critical thing is the dna analysis which suggests that in early march we had some 3,000 unique outbreaks (linked to travel and in particular people returning from the italian / austrian ski resorts). after that it was never going to go well for us. add in population density, urbanisation and obesity (all variables in the article) and we were pretty stuffed. |  |
| And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show |
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| International travel drove early death rates on 13:01 - Feb 4 with 1549 views | Freddies_Ears |
| International travel drove early death rates on 11:13 - Feb 4 by Mookamoo |
Family in Bedford have spoken about the huge amount of Italians escaping the early lockdown in the north of Italy who came over to stay there.
It's one of the moments in history our decedents simply won't understand how unprepared we were. |
Especially when north Italians were not permitted to travel southward in their own country - hence mid - and southern Italy largely missed the first wave.
My sister was in Florence when Italy locked down (she had travelled out when UK was not even suggesting restrictions(. She went to rush home via France by train, but the border with France had already closed. Flights to UK were full, so she flew via Brussels and strolled through Gatwick with no problem.
UK messed up, totally, and deliberately (keep the economy open...oh). |  | | |
| International travel drove early death rates on 13:09 - Feb 4 with 1517 views | stantheman |
| International travel drove early death rates on 11:28 - Feb 4 by Guthrum |
That last paragraph is absolutely the case. One of my biggest beefs was that such information was not broadcast earlier, so people weren't properly equipped to make wise decisions, even aside from outright bans.
I don't think the UK could have shut down in time to stop us having a rough ride in the first wave, but thereafter it ought to have happened. Afraid I don't consider "having a holiday" good enough reason to go abroad during a pandemic*.
* Tho I appreciate people were told it was safe and so made a decision to go. |
I looked at the advice that it was OK to travel and thought that sitting on a plane and wandering around in a foreign country in a pandemic was NOT safe. |  | | |
| International travel drove early death rates on 13:26 - Feb 4 with 1499 views | Beckets |
| International travel drove early death rates on 10:58 - Feb 4 by footers |
The last 12 months have certainly shown we're not short on aerosols in this country. |
The last 12 months has also shown us what happens when you have a populist in charge during a pandemic. See also USA and Brazil. |  | | |
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