| Based on the last 10 years average 00:15 - Nov 30 with 2868 views | Cheltenham_Blue |
For 2nd place: 16 Wins from our remaining 28 games
For Play offs: 11 Wins from our remaining 28.
Let's hope come January 1st we've had a good December. 7 Games, 4 wins I reckon if we keep going as we can. |  |
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| Based on the last 10 years average on 05:29 - Nov 30 with 2679 views | Wacko |
Out of interest are you taking the average of second place or the average of third place +1?
Edit: so I’ve just worked out the average points needed to beat third place over the last ten years. It’s 85.5, so we need to win half our remaining games and draw a couple [Post edited 30 Nov 2023 6:17]
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| Based on the last 10 years average on 06:10 - Nov 30 with 2619 views | BigCommon |
Just got a feeling that its going to be some above average totals for top 2 this season... Possibly mid 90's needed.... The pace has been set, and the top few teams will push each other on, imo... We just got to keep ticking off the games, one at a time..
I'd say Leeds have got an equally tough December to ours, when you look at their next few games... |  | | |
| Based on the last 10 years average on 07:32 - Nov 30 with 2455 views | Cheltenham_Blue |
| Based on the last 10 years average on 05:29 - Nov 30 by Wacko |
Out of interest are you taking the average of second place or the average of third place +1?
Edit: so I’ve just worked out the average points needed to beat third place over the last ten years. It’s 85.5, so we need to win half our remaining games and draw a couple [Post edited 30 Nov 2023 6:17]
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I'm taking an average of 2nd. its generally 90 points required. | |
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| Based on the last 10 years average on 07:47 - Nov 30 with 2409 views | itfc_bucks |
I'm far from convinced Leicester or Leeds can keep this up.
Doubtless some cultures will be keen to rock the boat in January. We just need to keep doing what we're doing. | | | |
| Based on the last 10 years average on 08:37 - Nov 30 with 2286 views | BtreeBlueBlood |
| Based on the last 10 years average on 07:47 - Nov 30 by itfc_bucks |
I'm far from convinced Leicester or Leeds can keep this up.
Doubtless some cultures will be keen to rock the boat in January. We just need to keep doing what we're doing. |
Just typical Ipswich, manage to get two seasons back to back 95 points plus to get automatic promotion.
The only fortunate thing is obviously Leicester and Leeds haven’t had seasons where they need to win every game.
I think we have stolen a March on most of the competition. |  | | |
| Based on the last 10 years average on 08:42 - Nov 30 with 2261 views | textbackup |
| Based on the last 10 years average on 08:37 - Nov 30 by BtreeBlueBlood |
Just typical Ipswich, manage to get two seasons back to back 95 points plus to get automatic promotion.
The only fortunate thing is obviously Leicester and Leeds haven’t had seasons where they need to win every game.
I think we have stolen a March on most of the competition. |
Bet we’ll need 100+ to win the prem next season too… typical |  |
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| Based on the last 10 years average on 08:48 - Nov 30 with 2233 views | NeedhamChris |
| Based on the last 10 years average on 07:32 - Nov 30 by Cheltenham_Blue |
I'm taking an average of 2nd. its generally 90 points required. |
That's positive - as you'll have inflated the average required so in reality (hopefully) it's better than that! | |
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| Based on the last 10 years average on 08:59 - Nov 30 with 2177 views | NeedhamChris |
| Based on the last 10 years average on 08:48 - Nov 30 by NeedhamChris |
That's positive - as you'll have inflated the average required so in reality (hopefully) it's better than that! |
Just to follow that up with an example;
Last year Sheffield United were 2nd on 91 and Luton were 3rd on 80. You've used 91 as the figure to get promoted last year when actually 81 would have been enough.
Shows you the difference in quality this year compared to last, the three teams that have gone up compared to the three that came down is a real mismatch. 81 doesn't look like it would be anywhere near what will be needed this time around. | |
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| Based on the last 10 years average on 10:02 - Nov 30 with 2081 views | SomethingBlue |
Currently tracking 77 points for play-offs (so let's say 12 wins) although at this point it can change by the week. You'd expect the race for sixth to become very tight although, if Sunderland and Boro don't manage to put runs together from here, it's not completely impossible that the current group sail off into the distance. | |
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| Based on the last 10 years average on 10:23 - Nov 30 with 2014 views | _clive_baker_ |
| Based on the last 10 years average on 08:59 - Nov 30 by NeedhamChris |
Just to follow that up with an example;
Last year Sheffield United were 2nd on 91 and Luton were 3rd on 80. You've used 91 as the figure to get promoted last year when actually 81 would have been enough.
Shows you the difference in quality this year compared to last, the three teams that have gone up compared to the three that came down is a real mismatch. 81 doesn't look like it would be anywhere near what will be needed this time around. |
Gets a bit more nuanced than that I guess, as in getting 91 points, they took points from sides below them. Had they not got 91, some points would've been distributed elsewhere, potentially to 3rd.
Personally I don't think there's much value in looking at 10 year mean averages anyway. Each season is so different, with different quality. This is a particularly hard Championship in terms of a few standout sides, last season wasn't. The 3 relegated from the premier league were all long established and with their sh1t together, and all sit in the top 4 now. Much tougher than a yo-yo Norwich or Watford coming down. Of last seasons losing playoff sides, Boro are the highest this season in 10th. I thought the final last year was between 2 underwhelming sides, this year will be a much higher standard.
If there was just 1 side below us looking strong I would feel much more confident, but in Leeds, Southampton and West Brom there's 3 very good sides, in form (currently) who are running at not a lot under 2 pgg, and all above 2ppg in their last 5. I would be shocked if whoever finishes 2nd doesn't need 90+ points to do so this year. |  | | |
| Based on the last 10 years average on 11:09 - Nov 30 with 1896 views | Tonytown |
| Based on the last 10 years average on 10:23 - Nov 30 by _clive_baker_ |
Gets a bit more nuanced than that I guess, as in getting 91 points, they took points from sides below them. Had they not got 91, some points would've been distributed elsewhere, potentially to 3rd.
Personally I don't think there's much value in looking at 10 year mean averages anyway. Each season is so different, with different quality. This is a particularly hard Championship in terms of a few standout sides, last season wasn't. The 3 relegated from the premier league were all long established and with their sh1t together, and all sit in the top 4 now. Much tougher than a yo-yo Norwich or Watford coming down. Of last seasons losing playoff sides, Boro are the highest this season in 10th. I thought the final last year was between 2 underwhelming sides, this year will be a much higher standard.
If there was just 1 side below us looking strong I would feel much more confident, but in Leeds, Southampton and West Brom there's 3 very good sides, in form (currently) who are running at not a lot under 2 pgg, and all above 2ppg in their last 5. I would be shocked if whoever finishes 2nd doesn't need 90+ points to do so this year. |
This is bang on.
We may need to get nearer to 95 to go up automatically.
That’s still an awful lot of points, maybe as many as 53 in 28 games.
If we can win 4 in December that would be great. | | | |
| Based on the last 10 years average on 11:13 - Nov 30 with 1871 views | Freddies_Ears |
| Based on the last 10 years average on 10:23 - Nov 30 by _clive_baker_ |
Gets a bit more nuanced than that I guess, as in getting 91 points, they took points from sides below them. Had they not got 91, some points would've been distributed elsewhere, potentially to 3rd.
Personally I don't think there's much value in looking at 10 year mean averages anyway. Each season is so different, with different quality. This is a particularly hard Championship in terms of a few standout sides, last season wasn't. The 3 relegated from the premier league were all long established and with their sh1t together, and all sit in the top 4 now. Much tougher than a yo-yo Norwich or Watford coming down. Of last seasons losing playoff sides, Boro are the highest this season in 10th. I thought the final last year was between 2 underwhelming sides, this year will be a much higher standard.
If there was just 1 side below us looking strong I would feel much more confident, but in Leeds, Southampton and West Brom there's 3 very good sides, in form (currently) who are running at not a lot under 2 pgg, and all above 2ppg in their last 5. I would be shocked if whoever finishes 2nd doesn't need 90+ points to do so this year. |
Agree 100%. Leicester are on a wobble, but are well capable of 2ppg from here on. Leeds and Southampton could even sustain a run of 2.25ppg (though I don't expect both to do so). WBA seem half a class below, despite being impressive lately; this feels like a good run rather than a sustainable excellence.
If Leicester get 2ppg from here on, they end up on 99. If Leeds / Southampton get 2.25ppg, then they end up on 98 & 97pts respectively.
For ITFC, surely 2ppg from here on = 98pts would be enough? If we avoid defeat in our remaining games v Leicester (h&a), Leeds (a) and Southampton (h), 98 should be enough, as the other 3 will also take points off each other... | | | |
| Based on the last 10 years average on 11:59 - Nov 30 with 1787 views | GeoffSentence |
| Based on the last 10 years average on 07:47 - Nov 30 by itfc_bucks |
I'm far from convinced Leicester or Leeds can keep this up.
Doubtless some cultures will be keen to rock the boat in January. We just need to keep doing what we're doing. |
Ha! And you can bet your bottom dollar they are as unconvinced that we can.
I even saw some Millwall fan on their forum last night proclaiming that there was no way we are getting promoted, oblivious to the 7 point gap to 3rd and 14 point gap to 7th, he couldn't see that we have a decent chance of promotion. I'm happy with that, so long it's other teams players and staff are dismissive as well. |  |
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| Based on the last 10 years average on 12:57 - Nov 30 with 1691 views | _clive_baker_ |
| Based on the last 10 years average on 11:13 - Nov 30 by Freddies_Ears |
Agree 100%. Leicester are on a wobble, but are well capable of 2ppg from here on. Leeds and Southampton could even sustain a run of 2.25ppg (though I don't expect both to do so). WBA seem half a class below, despite being impressive lately; this feels like a good run rather than a sustainable excellence.
If Leicester get 2ppg from here on, they end up on 99. If Leeds / Southampton get 2.25ppg, then they end up on 98 & 97pts respectively.
For ITFC, surely 2ppg from here on = 98pts would be enough? If we avoid defeat in our remaining games v Leicester (h&a), Leeds (a) and Southampton (h), 98 should be enough, as the other 3 will also take points off each other... |
Agree. The biggest challenge is it's not a '2 from 3', where it just takes 1 to wobble to give us a little breathing space, but more likely a 2 from 4 or 5, where the likelihood of at least 2 not setting that run-rate bar diminishes.
I would be willing to bet that 2nd place will finish on something starting in a 9 this season, given the relative squads of the relegated sides and the resources those clubs have to strengthen in January.
It's not unthinkable that we can stay in that mix though, we've given ourselves a chance with the start we've had. But yeah, I think we'll need the best part of 50 points from the 28 games left. 15 more wins and some draws? Certainly possible, but we'll need to be ruthlessly consistent to keep winning home games like the next one.
COYB | | | |
| Based on the last 10 years average on 13:17 - Nov 30 with 1597 views | ElderGrizzly |
| Based on the last 10 years average on 07:47 - Nov 30 by itfc_bucks |
I'm far from convinced Leicester or Leeds can keep this up.
Doubtless some cultures will be keen to rock the boat in January. We just need to keep doing what we're doing. |
Leeds and Leicester might lose a few players too, as PL clubs look for reinforcements.
In theory, we only strengthen unless someone comes and tests our resolve for Davis. [Post edited 30 Nov 2023 13:19]
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