| Don't panic everyone. It's all going to be alright. 11:51 - Sep 13 with 3937 views | Superfrans |
I've been getting a bit fed up with the general negativity and seeming loss of hope on here.
So, I've had a quick look back over the past 10 years of Championship league tables, comparing the bottom 3 clubs on Sept 1 with the bottom 3 (relegated) clubs at the end of the season. There are plenty of crumbs of comfort...
> never have all of the bottom 3 teams on Sept 1 been relegated at the end of the season.
> on 2 occasions, 2 of the bottom 3 went on to be relegated.
> on 5 occasions, 1 of the bottom 3 went on to be relegated.
> on 3 occasions, 0 of the bottom 3 went on to be relegated.
> of the 30 teams that have been bottom 3 on September 1, just 9 went on to be relegated.
> 9 clubs who were top half of the table on Sept 1 subsequently went on to be relegated that same season.
Of course, that's still a one-in-three chance of relegation. But there is a two-in-three chance that we'll be fine. [Post edited 13 Sep 2018 11:51]
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| Don't panic everyone. It's all going to be alright. on 11:55 - Sep 13 with 3562 views | Kieran_Knows |
I think things will become a little rosier once we get our first win, but that needs to come sooner rather than later. We've got 4 games now of which I think (personally), 3 are very winnable. If we come out of the next 4 games without a win, I think that's when I'd start to worry. |  |
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| Don't panic everyone. It's all going to be alright. on 12:04 - Sep 13 with 3525 views | bluewein |
Nice.
Reading will go down anyway, so we're already safe... |  |
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| Don't panic everyone. It's all going to be alright. on 12:31 - Sep 13 with 3473 views | Superfrans |
I've done some supplementary work on this. If where everyone is on Sept 1 isn't necessarily indicative, where we all are after 12 games (just passed one-quarter of the way through the season) is much more so.
So, looking back over the past 10 years, at the league table after most clubs have played 12 games:
> on 1 occasion all 3 of the bottom 3 went on to be relegated - 2016-17.
> on 4 occasions, 2 of the bottom 3 went on to be relegated.
> on 4 occasions, 1 of the bottom 3 went on to be relegated.
> on just 1 occasion, 0 of the bottom 3 went on to be relegated.
> of the 30 teams that have been bottom 3 after 12 games, 15 went on to be relegated.
> only 1 club has been top half after 12 games and gone on to be relegated - Wolves in 2012-13. They had 20 points after 12 games.
> the only other club to have 16 points or more after 12 games and get relegated was Sheffield Wed in 2009-10. Sheff Utd had 15 points after 12 games in 2010-11 and were subsequently relegated.
What do we take from that? Well, if we are still in the bottom 3 after 12 games, we should be much more concerned then - although even then it's still only 50:50.
If we can get to 13 points, that reduces our chances of relegation to less than 25% (7 from 30 clubs had 13 points or more at 12 games and were still relegated). | |
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| Don't panic everyone. It's all going to be alright. on 12:48 - Sep 13 with 3450 views | itfcjoe |
| Don't panic everyone. It's all going to be alright. on 12:31 - Sep 13 by Superfrans |
I've done some supplementary work on this. If where everyone is on Sept 1 isn't necessarily indicative, where we all are after 12 games (just passed one-quarter of the way through the season) is much more so.
So, looking back over the past 10 years, at the league table after most clubs have played 12 games:
> on 1 occasion all 3 of the bottom 3 went on to be relegated - 2016-17.
> on 4 occasions, 2 of the bottom 3 went on to be relegated.
> on 4 occasions, 1 of the bottom 3 went on to be relegated.
> on just 1 occasion, 0 of the bottom 3 went on to be relegated.
> of the 30 teams that have been bottom 3 after 12 games, 15 went on to be relegated.
> only 1 club has been top half after 12 games and gone on to be relegated - Wolves in 2012-13. They had 20 points after 12 games.
> the only other club to have 16 points or more after 12 games and get relegated was Sheffield Wed in 2009-10. Sheff Utd had 15 points after 12 games in 2010-11 and were subsequently relegated.
What do we take from that? Well, if we are still in the bottom 3 after 12 games, we should be much more concerned then - although even then it's still only 50:50.
If we can get to 13 points, that reduces our chances of relegation to less than 25% (7 from 30 clubs had 13 points or more at 12 games and were still relegated). |
So currently history suggest we have a 1 in 3 chance of going down, and every subsequent game in the bottom 3 sees that increase (1 in 2 after 12 games).
If come 5pm on Saturday week we are still winless, then we are in serious trouble in my view - hopefully that won't be the case and I'll see our fist win at Hull on Saturday |  |
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| Don't panic everyone. It's all going to be alright. on 13:33 - Sep 13 with 3377 views | Superfrans |
| Don't panic everyone. It's all going to be alright. on 12:48 - Sep 13 by itfcjoe |
So currently history suggest we have a 1 in 3 chance of going down, and every subsequent game in the bottom 3 sees that increase (1 in 2 after 12 games).
If come 5pm on Saturday week we are still winless, then we are in serious trouble in my view - hopefully that won't be the case and I'll see our fist win at Hull on Saturday |
I agree with you. We need a win from the next 3 games, although i would say this as much for belief as anything else. I suspect even Hurst himself will start doubting if we haven't got a win by then - that will transmit to the players, he may start changing things up again, and it could all deteriorate into a tailspin very quickly.
That said, a win on Saturday could change the mood very quickly. If we were to win, I could see us sitting pretty on 10 points by 5pm on Saturday week.
Worth noting though that we have twice been rock bottom after 12 matches in the past 10 seasons - in 2012-13 with 7 points and in 2009-10 with 6 points. And on neither occasion were we relegated. | |
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| Don't panic everyone. It's all going to be alright. on 13:39 - Sep 13 with 3363 views | itfcjoe |
| Don't panic everyone. It's all going to be alright. on 13:33 - Sep 13 by Superfrans |
I agree with you. We need a win from the next 3 games, although i would say this as much for belief as anything else. I suspect even Hurst himself will start doubting if we haven't got a win by then - that will transmit to the players, he may start changing things up again, and it could all deteriorate into a tailspin very quickly.
That said, a win on Saturday could change the mood very quickly. If we were to win, I could see us sitting pretty on 10 points by 5pm on Saturday week.
Worth noting though that we have twice been rock bottom after 12 matches in the past 10 seasons - in 2012-13 with 7 points and in 2009-10 with 6 points. And on neither occasion were we relegated. |
One involved a change of manger though which wouldn't be ideal! | |
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| Don't panic everyone. It's all going to be alright. on 14:32 - Sep 13 with 3313 views | RobTheMonk |
I've been saying to people come back in October and then we will have a better reflection of how we're doing. If we can get 6 points out of the next 3 games that would be okay (not great but something to work with). If we don't then we're in trouble. |  | | |
| Don't panic everyone. It's all going to be alright. on 14:36 - Sep 13 with 3302 views | itfcjoe |
| Don't panic everyone. It's all going to be alright. on 14:32 - Sep 13 by RobTheMonk |
I've been saying to people come back in October and then we will have a better reflection of how we're doing. If we can get 6 points out of the next 3 games that would be okay (not great but something to work with). If we don't then we're in trouble. |
I'd bite your hand off for 6 points from next 3 games - I suspect Hurst would too | |
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| Don't panic everyone. It's all going to be alright. on 14:40 - Sep 13 with 3284 views | ITFC_Forever |
| Don't panic everyone. It's all going to be alright. on 13:33 - Sep 13 by Superfrans |
I agree with you. We need a win from the next 3 games, although i would say this as much for belief as anything else. I suspect even Hurst himself will start doubting if we haven't got a win by then - that will transmit to the players, he may start changing things up again, and it could all deteriorate into a tailspin very quickly.
That said, a win on Saturday could change the mood very quickly. If we were to win, I could see us sitting pretty on 10 points by 5pm on Saturday week.
Worth noting though that we have twice been rock bottom after 12 matches in the past 10 seasons - in 2012-13 with 7 points and in 2009-10 with 6 points. And on neither occasion were we relegated. |
We should be looking to win 3 of the next 4 games - Hull, Brentford, Bolton and Brum.
Brentford are decent, the rest are poor sides and prime opportunities to get wins from. |  |
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| Don't panic everyone. It's all going to be alright. on 16:12 - Sep 13 with 3229 views | Lord_Lucan |
I thought we were going to be fine but I received a shocker of a text today explaining that all is not exactly well.
If the details are true - and I don't see any reason why they shouldn't be - then get into the brace position. |  |
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| Don't panic everyone. It's all going to be alright. on 16:19 - Sep 13 with 3206 views | Currie10 |
| Don't panic everyone. It's all going to be alright. on 16:12 - Sep 13 by Lord_Lucan |
I thought we were going to be fine but I received a shocker of a text today explaining that all is not exactly well.
If the details are true - and I don't see any reason why they shouldn't be - then get into the brace position. |
Care to share!?
See - I'm not quite so confident as many about this.
We've won 2 in 18 under 3 managers. Only wins vs relegated Barnsley last season, surely relegated Reading last season too.
Hurst banging on about fitness .... yet decided to start Graham. Hurst building a massive great whopping squad.
I don't buy all this Dozzell stuff either - he's surely worth a go in the next month even if for last 20 minutes or so. I'll give him a pass for another three weeks on this, but if the likes of Graham come along and start.... yeah.
Not convinced it will be particularly happy ship internally right now.
Are we in trouble? Yes. Yes we are. Even if we were to beat Hull / Bolton this week, my mind wouldn't alter massively. |  | | |
| Don't panic everyone. It's all going to be alright. on 16:34 - Sep 13 with 3198 views | Superfrans |
| Don't panic everyone. It's all going to be alright. on 16:12 - Sep 13 by Lord_Lucan |
I thought we were going to be fine but I received a shocker of a text today explaining that all is not exactly well.
If the details are true - and I don't see any reason why they shouldn't be - then get into the brace position. |
Blimey. Pray tell... | |
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| Don't panic everyone. It's all going to be alright. on 16:43 - Sep 13 with 3191 views | Lord_Lucan |
Can't share on here - too delicate.
Ask Bossbeard, he has looser lips than me | |
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| Don't panic everyone. It's all going to be alright. on 16:47 - Sep 13 with 3183 views | RobTheMonk |
| Don't panic everyone. It's all going to be alright. on 16:43 - Sep 13 by Lord_Lucan |
Can't share on here - too delicate.
Ask Bossbeard, he has looser lips than me |
Go on Lucan, give us a tease. Maybe a proverbial bit of leg to set the pulses running! | | | |
| Don't panic everyone. It's all going to be alright. on 16:48 - Sep 13 with 3176 views | RobTheMonk |
| Don't panic everyone. It's all going to be alright. on 14:36 - Sep 13 by itfcjoe |
I'd bite your hand off for 6 points from next 3 games - I suspect Hurst would too |
I'd bite my own hands off as well to be honest. The international break could make or break our season. | | | |
| Don't panic everyone. It's all going to be alright. on 16:52 - Sep 13 with 3163 views | hoppy |
| Don't panic everyone. It's all going to be alright. on 12:31 - Sep 13 by Superfrans |
I've done some supplementary work on this. If where everyone is on Sept 1 isn't necessarily indicative, where we all are after 12 games (just passed one-quarter of the way through the season) is much more so.
So, looking back over the past 10 years, at the league table after most clubs have played 12 games:
> on 1 occasion all 3 of the bottom 3 went on to be relegated - 2016-17.
> on 4 occasions, 2 of the bottom 3 went on to be relegated.
> on 4 occasions, 1 of the bottom 3 went on to be relegated.
> on just 1 occasion, 0 of the bottom 3 went on to be relegated.
> of the 30 teams that have been bottom 3 after 12 games, 15 went on to be relegated.
> only 1 club has been top half after 12 games and gone on to be relegated - Wolves in 2012-13. They had 20 points after 12 games.
> the only other club to have 16 points or more after 12 games and get relegated was Sheffield Wed in 2009-10. Sheff Utd had 15 points after 12 games in 2010-11 and were subsequently relegated.
What do we take from that? Well, if we are still in the bottom 3 after 12 games, we should be much more concerned then - although even then it's still only 50:50.
If we can get to 13 points, that reduces our chances of relegation to less than 25% (7 from 30 clubs had 13 points or more at 12 games and were still relegated). |
So that's the outcomes based on not being relegated... in your findings did it show up any/many that were in a lowly position this early in the season that then went on to be in the playoffs or promoted?
Thanks in advance. |  |
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| Don't panic everyone. It's all going to be alright. on 16:56 - Sep 13 with 3151 views | Swn98 |
| Don't panic everyone. It's all going to be alright. on 11:55 - Sep 13 by Kieran_Knows |
I think things will become a little rosier once we get our first win, but that needs to come sooner rather than later. We've got 4 games now of which I think (personally), 3 are very winnable. If we come out of the next 4 games without a win, I think that's when I'd start to worry. |
Start worrying. |  | | |
| Don't panic everyone. It's all going to be alright. on 17:23 - Sep 13 with 3130 views | Lord_Lucan |
| Don't panic everyone. It's all going to be alright. on 16:47 - Sep 13 by RobTheMonk |
Go on Lucan, give us a tease. Maybe a proverbial bit of leg to set the pulses running! |
You are welcome to PM me but I'm just going round Mothers for the evening so may not respond immediately. | |
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| Don't panic everyone. It's all going to be alright. on 17:24 - Sep 13 with 3126 views | PJH |
| Don't panic everyone. It's all going to be alright. on 17:23 - Sep 13 by Lord_Lucan |
You are welcome to PM me but I'm just going round Mothers for the evening so may not respond immediately. |
You are now likely to get about 1500 or so PM's. |  | | |
| Don't panic everyone. It's all going to be alright. on 17:31 - Sep 13 with 3120 views | Lord_Lucan |
| Don't panic everyone. It's all going to be alright. on 17:24 - Sep 13 by PJH |
You are now likely to get about 1500 or so PM's. |
And so it begins........... | |
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| Don't panic everyone. It's all going to be alright. on 17:40 - Sep 13 with 3102 views | Keaneish |
How many teams who were in the bottom three on Sept 1st made the play-offs? Just wondering... |  |
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| Don't panic everyone. It's all going to be alright. on 17:58 - Sep 13 with 3072 views | Currie10 |
| Don't panic everyone. It's all going to be alright. on 17:31 - Sep 13 by Lord_Lucan |
And so it begins........... |
Are you 12th man in disguise. | | | |
| Don't panic everyone. It's all going to be alright. on 18:02 - Sep 13 with 3063 views | pointofblue |
I don't think it's fair to be thinking about promotion or the Play Offs this season. This is a complete rebuild on the coaching team and squad which had more experience and stability last year and 'only' finished midtable. This season is about restructing and rebuilding; survival is important and anything else is a bonus for me. | |
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| Don't panic everyone. It's all going to be alright. on 19:37 - Sep 13 with 2970 views | Vic |
| Don't panic everyone. It's all going to be alright. on 12:48 - Sep 13 by itfcjoe |
So currently history suggest we have a 1 in 3 chance of going down, and every subsequent game in the bottom 3 sees that increase (1 in 2 after 12 games).
If come 5pm on Saturday week we are still winless, then we are in serious trouble in my view - hopefully that won't be the case and I'll see our fist win at Hull on Saturday |
That’s a big statement Joe, and doesn’t seem to me to fit the data from SF, or your immediate previous comment. Saturday is an away game. Draws away and wins at home are the usual hope aren’t they.
personally, I’d take a win and two draws from the next 4 games. Given that things really should improve that gives us a platform to build an improved points per game which would see us safe. |  |
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| Don't panic everyone. It's all going to be alright. on 06:54 - Sep 14 with 2855 views | Benters2 |
| Don't panic everyone. It's all going to be alright. on 14:36 - Sep 13 by itfcjoe |
I'd bite your hand off for 6 points from next 3 games - I suspect Hurst would too |
This. | | | |
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