| If you want the softest possible Brexit, vote Labour.... 16:20 - Sep 27 with 11462 views | chicoazul |
...in the forthcoming election (probably before Xmas btw, friends).
Simply put, the Maximum Leader and his cohort are such a bunch of absolute melts that they will, in effect, do what the EU tell them to. They have never negotiated anything more difficult than Islington council parking regulations or the rates to hire Hackney town hall so faced with Barnier they will simply end up accepting exactly what the EU want to give them. Since the EU want us to remain a key partner on economics, taxation, security, capital & people movement and egalitarianism this will be a straight forward agreement.
There are of course risks to this course, significant among them being that the Maximum Leader will himself be quickly stood down from his position by the Communist arrivistes headed by Seamus Milne. Swings and roundabouts. |  |
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| If you want the softest possible Brexit, vote Labour.... on 16:37 - Sep 27 with 6565 views | The_Last_Baron |
Labour are a disgrace of a party and have been since Blair took over.
In the next election I won't be voting Labour or Tory if Corbyn and May are the people at the helm. |  |
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| If you want the softest possible Brexit, vote Labour.... on 16:38 - Sep 27 with 6564 views | baxterbasics |
I don't agree with your first point, there'll be no election this year. (Leadership election, maybe). |  |
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| If you want the softest possible Brexit, vote Labour.... on 16:47 - Sep 27 with 6520 views | caught-in-limbo |
The softest possible Brexit is the only way the government can both save face and not actually leave the EU in any meaningful way. I can't see how the government would have any credibility by having a 2nd referendum, so the only answer is to leave the EU in name only.
I suspect that will happen irrespective of who's in power. |  |
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| If you want the softest possible Brexit, vote Labour.... on 16:52 - Sep 27 with 6526 views | Basuco |
From what I heard on the radio I thought that Labour just agreed to keep all options open, sit on the fence not make any decision. To be honest Brexit has split both Tory and Labour politicians in the same way it has split the UK population. I have no faith that MP's from either party will have the best interest of the UK population in mind while negotiating an exit deal, we will be totally screwed over big time. |  | | |
| If you want the softest possible Brexit, vote Labour.... on 17:14 - Sep 27 with 6495 views | GlasgowBlue |
My thoughts for what they are worth.
There won't be an election unless May makes Chequers a vote of confidence. She may chose to do that in order to frighten those on the left who want an even softer Brexit, and those on the right who want one which is harder, in order to back the deal but I doubt she will do this as she doesn't have the numbers.
Chequers will be voted down, Corbyn will put forward a motion of no confidence in the government and the rebels from each wing or the Tory party will vote to save the government. The DUP, faced with a former IRA sympathisers like John McDonnell, Jeremy Corbyn and Diane Abbott taking control of 10 Downing Street, the Treasury, the Home Office, the Ministry of Defence, MI6 and MI6 will also back the government and the Tory administration will survive.
May will gamble, as John Major did over the same issue in 1994 (?), and resign as leader of the Conservative party whilst staying in the role of Prime Minister. Boris will decide whether or not he has enough support in the parliamentary party to make the final two candidates which then go to the members to vote. He will know, frustratingly for him, that if he makes the final two he will probably win the leadership and become Prime Minister by Christmas, but will conclude that he simply doesn't have the support from his Parliamentary colleagues so will bottle standing against her.
Unless a stalking horse puts his or her head above the parapet May will remain unchallenged and continue as leader safe in the knowledge that there cannot be another challenge for a calendar year.
As I say, these are my own thoughts. I also predicted that the Tories would win a 100+ majority at the election so what do I know? |  |
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| If you want the softest possible Brexit, vote Labour.... on 17:28 - Sep 27 with 6474 views | chicoazul |
| If you want the softest possible Brexit, vote Labour.... on 16:47 - Sep 27 by caught-in-limbo |
The softest possible Brexit is the only way the government can both save face and not actually leave the EU in any meaningful way. I can't see how the government would have any credibility by having a 2nd referendum, so the only answer is to leave the EU in name only.
I suspect that will happen irrespective of who's in power. |
I agree. | |
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| If you want the softest possible Brexit, vote Labour.... on 19:02 - Sep 27 with 6378 views | GeoffSentence |
| If you want the softest possible Brexit, vote Labour.... on 16:37 - Sep 27 by The_Last_Baron |
Labour are a disgrace of a party and have been since Blair took over.
In the next election I won't be voting Labour or Tory if Corbyn and May are the people at the helm. |
The lib dems seem to have gone completely underground, UKIP is coming out as the political wing of the EDL.
Who is there who is worth voting for these days?
The Greens? |  |
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| If you want the softest possible Brexit, vote Labour.... on 19:43 - Sep 27 with 6335 views | GlasgowBlue |
| If you want the softest possible Brexit, vote Labour.... on 19:02 - Sep 27 by GeoffSentence |
The lib dems seem to have gone completely underground, UKIP is coming out as the political wing of the EDL.
Who is there who is worth voting for these days?
The Greens? |
The LibDems will be reinvigorated when Vince shuffles off and they elect Layla Moran as leader. | |
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| If you want the softest possible Brexit, vote Labour.... on 19:48 - Sep 27 with 6327 views | Swansea_Blue |
| If you want the softest possible Brexit, vote Labour.... on 19:43 - Sep 27 by GlasgowBlue |
The LibDems will be reinvigorated when Vince shuffles off and they elect Layla Moran as leader. |
They’d be invigorated even if a corpse took over. We’ve a government as unpopular as I can remember (since Blair’s Iraq war faux pas probably), yet everyone else seems hell bent on out doing them in the incompetence stakes.
Vote Monster Raving Looney Party kids. |  |
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| If you want the softest possible Brexit, vote Labour.... on 19:50 - Sep 27 with 6325 views | GlasgowBlue |
| If you want the softest possible Brexit, vote Labour.... on 19:48 - Sep 27 by Swansea_Blue |
They’d be invigorated even if a corpse took over. We’ve a government as unpopular as I can remember (since Blair’s Iraq war faux pas probably), yet everyone else seems hell bent on out doing them in the incompetence stakes.
Vote Monster Raving Looney Party kids. |
There is a market for a centrist party. This graph shows why Labour has lost the last three elections whilst winning the previous three.
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| If you want the softest possible Brexit, vote Labour.... on 20:24 - Sep 27 with 6287 views | Darth_Koont |
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| If you want the softest possible Brexit, vote Labour.... on 20:35 - Sep 27 with 6268 views | Binner |
| If you want the softest possible Brexit, vote Labour.... on 19:50 - Sep 27 by GlasgowBlue |
There is a market for a centrist party. This graph shows why Labour has lost the last three elections whilst winning the previous three.
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Interesting but more than two years out of date. The graph ends a few weeks after the referendum and several months before the 2017 GE. Corbyn, as we now know, proved rather more popular than was being suggested in August 2016. |  |
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| If you want the softest possible Brexit, vote Labour.... on 20:50 - Sep 27 with 6241 views | GlasgowBlue |
| If you want the softest possible Brexit, vote Labour.... on 20:35 - Sep 27 by Binner |
Interesting but more than two years out of date. The graph ends a few weeks after the referendum and several months before the 2017 GE. Corbyn, as we now know, proved rather more popular than was being suggested in August 2016. |
But he lost. And he lost with 9 less seats than Kinnock in 1992. Kinnock resigned.
And he lost with only 4 more seats than Gordon Brown. And he called that result "the death knell of New Labour"
And May, seen by the public as being too far from that centre line, didn't win a majority.
So if you take the last six elections, only 4 delivered outright majorities. Blair with three convincing victories from the centre and Cameron with a barely workable majority from centre right. | |
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| If you want the softest possible Brexit, vote Labour.... on 20:56 - Sep 27 with 6228 views | Binner |
| If you want the softest possible Brexit, vote Labour.... on 20:50 - Sep 27 by GlasgowBlue |
But he lost. And he lost with 9 less seats than Kinnock in 1992. Kinnock resigned.
And he lost with only 4 more seats than Gordon Brown. And he called that result "the death knell of New Labour"
And May, seen by the public as being too far from that centre line, didn't win a majority.
So if you take the last six elections, only 4 delivered outright majorities. Blair with three convincing victories from the centre and Cameron with a barely workable majority from centre right. |
Not arguing with any of that. My point is that, at the time your graph ends, many people including respected public figures and supposed experts were predicting that Labour under Corbyn would be all but wiped out. | |
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| If you want the softest possible Brexit, vote Labour.... on 20:59 - Sep 27 with 6222 views | GlasgowBlue |
| If you want the softest possible Brexit, vote Labour.... on 20:56 - Sep 27 by Binner |
Not arguing with any of that. My point is that, at the time your graph ends, many people including respected public figures and supposed experts were predicting that Labour under Corbyn would be all but wiped out. |
I'm not disagreeing with what you say. He did do better than expected. But he still lost and elections are won from the centre. The centre needs to look ask whether they have outgrown the old two party system. | |
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| If you want the softest possible Brexit, vote Labour.... on 21:06 - Sep 27 with 6209 views | Binner |
| If you want the softest possible Brexit, vote Labour.... on 20:59 - Sep 27 by GlasgowBlue |
I'm not disagreeing with what you say. He did do better than expected. But he still lost and elections are won from the centre. The centre needs to look ask whether they have outgrown the old two party system. |
The centre seems to be moving to the left. More younger people (new voters) comfortable with public ownership of utilities, as an example.
(Sorry. Can't engage further. Am at work and break is over). | |
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| If you want the softest possible Brexit, vote Labour.... on 22:16 - Sep 27 with 6131 views | connorscontract |
| If you want the softest possible Brexit, vote Labour.... on 20:50 - Sep 27 by GlasgowBlue |
But he lost. And he lost with 9 less seats than Kinnock in 1992. Kinnock resigned.
And he lost with only 4 more seats than Gordon Brown. And he called that result "the death knell of New Labour"
And May, seen by the public as being too far from that centre line, didn't win a majority.
So if you take the last six elections, only 4 delivered outright majorities. Blair with three convincing victories from the centre and Cameron with a barely workable majority from centre right. |
And more to the point he lost to the Maybot following a campaign in which we witnessed the wheat field confession and May bailing on a tv debate and sending Amber Rudd out to bat for her 2 days after Rudd's father had died.
Corbyn should have resigned.
Edited to correct a chronological error. [Post edited 27 Sep 2018 23:37]
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| If you want the softest possible Brexit, vote Labour.... on 12:35 - Sep 28 with 5995 views | baxterbasics |
| If you want the softest possible Brexit, vote Labour.... on 21:06 - Sep 27 by Binner |
The centre seems to be moving to the left. More younger people (new voters) comfortable with public ownership of utilities, as an example.
(Sorry. Can't engage further. Am at work and break is over). |
Something I learned about during my University days (Module: The New British Politics) is that the public 'centre ground' tends to gradually shift along the left-right scale in the opposite direction of the government in power.
So it makes sense that Mr Centrist is more to the left now than 10 years ago. I perosonally think we will see a Momentum government in the near-ish future, as much as this fills me with horror. Might not be a Corbyn one however. | |
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| If you want the softest possible Brexit, vote Labour.... on 12:37 - Sep 28 with 5991 views | baxterbasics |
| If you want the softest possible Brexit, vote Labour.... on 19:50 - Sep 27 by GlasgowBlue |
There is a market for a centrist party. This graph shows why Labour has lost the last three elections whilst winning the previous three.
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Michael Howard more to the right than IDS? Not sure I would agree. | |
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| If you want the softest possible Brexit, vote Labour.... on 13:20 - Sep 28 with 5955 views | Darth_Koont |
| If you want the softest possible Brexit, vote Labour.... on 12:35 - Sep 28 by baxterbasics |
Something I learned about during my University days (Module: The New British Politics) is that the public 'centre ground' tends to gradually shift along the left-right scale in the opposite direction of the government in power.
So it makes sense that Mr Centrist is more to the left now than 10 years ago. I perosonally think we will see a Momentum government in the near-ish future, as much as this fills me with horror. Might not be a Corbyn one however. |
Maybe but I'd say the weighting over the decades (plus how Blair moved Labour very much to the centre and even into right-wing territory with some of the rhetoric around free markets) means our centre is a lot farther right than the rest of Western Europe.
We've lacked that counterweight and balance. So much so that traditional left-wing politics is quickly seen as Marxist or Communist. When it's just good old-fashioned social democracy in the rest of Europe.
Oh and of course we've had an overall very right-heavy press for the last 50 years. Balance has often only come from news organisations and services that are more towards the centre or, like the BBC, at pains to be perceived as neutral. None of which is enough to prevent a strange perception of what makes a true political centre. | |
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| If you want the softest possible Brexit, vote Labour.... on 13:30 - Sep 28 with 5942 views | StokieBlue |
| If you want the softest possible Brexit, vote Labour.... on 20:35 - Sep 27 by Binner |
Interesting but more than two years out of date. The graph ends a few weeks after the referendum and several months before the 2017 GE. Corbyn, as we now know, proved rather more popular than was being suggested in August 2016. |
He did, but to make further gains requires large swings in 60+ seats.
The easy targets have been won, it's whether the more difficult seats can be taken, something that is far from certain.
SB |  |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| If you want the softest possible Brexit, vote Labour.... on 13:41 - Sep 28 with 5920 views | StokieBlue |
| If you want the softest possible Brexit, vote Labour.... on 13:20 - Sep 28 by Darth_Koont |
Maybe but I'd say the weighting over the decades (plus how Blair moved Labour very much to the centre and even into right-wing territory with some of the rhetoric around free markets) means our centre is a lot farther right than the rest of Western Europe.
We've lacked that counterweight and balance. So much so that traditional left-wing politics is quickly seen as Marxist or Communist. When it's just good old-fashioned social democracy in the rest of Europe.
Oh and of course we've had an overall very right-heavy press for the last 50 years. Balance has often only come from news organisations and services that are more towards the centre or, like the BBC, at pains to be perceived as neutral. None of which is enough to prevent a strange perception of what makes a true political centre. |
Out of interest, how do you square the first paragraph with right-leaning parties being in power in Italy, Spain and ahead in the polls in France?
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| If you want the softest possible Brexit, vote Labour.... on 13:47 - Sep 28 with 5908 views | PiercingBlue |
Aux barricades citoyens! | | | |
| If you want the softest possible Brexit, vote Labour.... on 13:56 - Sep 28 with 5889 views | imsureazzure |
| If you want the softest possible Brexit, vote Labour.... on 20:56 - Sep 27 by Binner |
Not arguing with any of that. My point is that, at the time your graph ends, many people including respected public figures and supposed experts were predicting that Labour under Corbyn would be all but wiped out. |
They will be, if there was an election tomorrow, JC would do significantly less well than in the previous GE, the BBC makes the same mistakes again and again believing that London opinion is British opinion and that the noisiest voices, as in QT last night, are the most appealing. |  | | |
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