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Interesting analysis of number of deaths projected 07:19 - Mar 21 with 1304 viewsHerbivore

Seems to suggest that some of the figures being quoted are inadvertently inflated. In Italy a lot of the deaths early on were people already in hospital and we don't know how many of them would have succumbed anyway.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51979654

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Interesting analysis of number of deaths projected on 07:21 - Mar 21 with 1279 viewsm14_blue

I’ve noticed a subtle change in the reporting recently from ‘died from Coronavirus’ to ‘died after testing positive for Coronavirus’.
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Interesting analysis of number of deaths projected on 07:30 - Mar 21 with 1230 viewsDubtractor

I think the safest thing to assume is that if you already have a significant illness that this is likely to kill you. If you have a condition like asthma then it will do you serious damage.

If you are otherwise healthy you may be fine, but need to manage your behaviour to minimise the risk of passing the virus on to the 2 groups above for obvious reasons.

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Interesting analysis of number of deaths projected on 07:31 - Mar 21 with 1222 viewsHerbivore

Interesting analysis of number of deaths projected on 07:21 - Mar 21 by m14_blue

I’ve noticed a subtle change in the reporting recently from ‘died from Coronavirus’ to ‘died after testing positive for Coronavirus’.


Truth is that a lot of older people and people with serious health issues end up dying because of some sort of infection. When your immune system is that compromised a whole host of things can prove fatal.

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Interesting analysis of number of deaths projected on 08:03 - Mar 21 with 1153 viewsNo9

Of more concern is the fact that Dr's & medical staff are still complaining about insufficient PPE

That means hospital workers are just as exposed as patients
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Interesting analysis of number of deaths projected on 08:08 - Mar 21 with 1131 viewslowhouseblue

Interesting analysis of number of deaths projected on 07:21 - Mar 21 by m14_blue

I’ve noticed a subtle change in the reporting recently from ‘died from Coronavirus’ to ‘died after testing positive for Coronavirus’.


the bbc has been using the later formulation from the start.

And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show

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Interesting analysis of number of deaths projected on 08:49 - Mar 21 with 1080 viewsElephantintheRoom

Well yes the whole point is that it is primarily killing vulnerable people and they do indeed tend to die of additive problems - just likepneumonia following flu used to be known as 'the old person's friend' in less politically correct times.

The thing you have to worry about - if you want to - is that mortality data is essentially flawed by the political process. It is wrong to compare a good flu year now with a bad flu year in the 80s - simply because we had an integrated helath care system back than - and far more people working in it. Anything is bad now - even a diarrhoea virus - let alone a pandemic.

Fast forward to a new virus and a healthcare system that is hopelessly underfunded and understaffed for normality facing something they are wholly inadequately prepared for - add in aa incompetent, compulsive liar who hascynically run down the economy and devalued the pound through Brexit - and you have well...

But yes, not measuring people with infection can reduce the numbers recorded - and ticking a different box can reduce the death rate too.

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Interesting analysis of number of deaths projected on 08:59 - Mar 21 with 1064 viewsGuthrum

Interesting analysis of number of deaths projected on 07:30 - Mar 21 by Dubtractor

I think the safest thing to assume is that if you already have a significant illness that this is likely to kill you. If you have a condition like asthma then it will do you serious damage.

If you are otherwise healthy you may be fine, but need to manage your behaviour to minimise the risk of passing the virus on to the 2 groups above for obvious reasons.


And even if you were previously healthy, suffering a bout of this illness can be very bad, plus possibly causing longer-term damage to your lungs (fibrosis).

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Interesting analysis of number of deaths projected on 09:03 - Mar 21 with 1049 viewsStokieBlue

Italy is steadily increasing though - yesterday was the highest number of deaths although as the article says, they could be allocated incorrectly. I am sure that anyone with the virus at time of death is being allocated into C-19 deaths.

I am not sure on the flu point though - people usually die of complications caused by the flu (usually pneumonia) so I don't see how that's any different to complications from C-19.

SB
[Post edited 21 Mar 9:05]

“You may not feel outstandingly robust, but if you are an average-sized adult you will contain within your modest frame no less than 7 X 10^18 joules of potential energy—enough to explode with the force of thirty very large hydrogen bombs, assuming you knew how to liberate it and really wished to make a point."

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Interesting analysis of number of deaths projected on 09:09 - Mar 21 with 1022 viewsBasuco

Interesting analysis of number of deaths projected on 08:03 - Mar 21 by No9

Of more concern is the fact that Dr's & medical staff are still complaining about insufficient PPE

That means hospital workers are just as exposed as patients


Lack of beds and staff is another huge concern, Wythenshawe hospital was being kept as a reserve to be used when Manchester and Liverpool were full, patients are already being moved there. Past starving of proper NHS funding is really going to come back and bite us
hard now.
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Interesting analysis of number of deaths projected on 09:14 - Mar 21 with 1000 viewsBloomBlue

I think that's a good point how many of the CV cases would have died irrelevant of catching CV, not sure they will ever have the answer. Also as in that link how many people will die because of staying inside as lack of exercise etc is known to kill thousands every year.
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Interesting analysis of number of deaths projected on 09:16 - Mar 21 with 997 viewsGeoffSentence

This will be an interesting data set to keep an eye on

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/dea

So far we only have the figures for January of this year, so before the virus kicked in. There does seem to be quite a spread from year to year though, 56000 deaths in England and Wales this Jan, 53000 in 2019, 64000 in 2018. and 57000 in 2017

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Interesting analysis of number of deaths projected on 09:22 - Mar 21 with 984 viewsHerbivore

Interesting analysis of number of deaths projected on 09:03 - Mar 21 by StokieBlue

Italy is steadily increasing though - yesterday was the highest number of deaths although as the article says, they could be allocated incorrectly. I am sure that anyone with the virus at time of death is being allocated into C-19 deaths.

I am not sure on the flu point though - people usually die of complications caused by the flu (usually pneumonia) so I don't see how that's any different to complications from C-19.

SB
[Post edited 21 Mar 9:05]


On the flu point, what he's saying is that there are cases where flu is a factor in the cause of death but is not listed as the cause of death. In other words, people with chronic health conditions who are essentially on borrowed time aren't counted as flu deaths if it is flu that 'finishes them off', it is deaths that are caused by the flu as primary cause. That's not been happening with the numbers for Covid-19 according to this analysis.

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Interesting analysis of number of deaths projected on 09:22 - Mar 21 with 983 viewsGuthrum

That goes for a lot of illnesses. If you boil it down to just the immediate cause, virtually everybody dies of heart failure or loss of blood.

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Interesting analysis of number of deaths projected on 09:27 - Mar 21 with 960 viewsStokieBlue

Interesting analysis of number of deaths projected on 09:22 - Mar 21 by Herbivore

On the flu point, what he's saying is that there are cases where flu is a factor in the cause of death but is not listed as the cause of death. In other words, people with chronic health conditions who are essentially on borrowed time aren't counted as flu deaths if it is flu that 'finishes them off', it is deaths that are caused by the flu as primary cause. That's not been happening with the numbers for Covid-19 according to this analysis.


He's almost certainly correct about that.

SB

“You may not feel outstandingly robust, but if you are an average-sized adult you will contain within your modest frame no less than 7 X 10^18 joules of potential energy—enough to explode with the force of thirty very large hydrogen bombs, assuming you knew how to liberate it and really wished to make a point."

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Interesting analysis of number of deaths projected on 09:29 - Mar 21 with 957 viewsSwansea_Blue

In therms of projected scenarios (broad picture, not granular numbers) and what we need to do, this is Brilliant:

https://www.wired.com/story/coronavirus-interview-larry-brilliant-smallpox-epide
[Post edited 21 Mar 9:44]

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Interesting analysis of number of deaths projected on 09:36 - Mar 21 with 936 viewsGuthrum

Interesting analysis of number of deaths projected on 09:29 - Mar 21 by Swansea_Blue

In therms of projected scenarios (broad picture, not granular numbers) and what we need to do, this is Brilliant:

https://www.wired.com/story/coronavirus-interview-larry-brilliant-smallpox-epide
[Post edited 21 Mar 9:44]


Great article.

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Interesting analysis of number of deaths projected on 09:44 - Mar 21 with 909 viewsBluesquid

An interesting article i must say but his comparison with the 8,000 flu deaths which can be more in a bad season won't go down well with some people i fear.

Yesterday in Italy there were 627 deaths and i can't find the quote below from Civil Protection chief Angelo Borrelli hardly anywhere in the media and i don't know why that is.

"I want to remember that the deceased had coronavirus but did not die from coronavirus. As you know, the ISS is carrying out an epidemiological investigation, the ISS will communicate the data to us, "said Borrelli."

2nd paragraph in this article using google translate.

https://www.ilprimatonazionale.it/cronaca/coronavirus-4mila-morti-italia-627-piu
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Interesting analysis of number of deaths projected on 09:45 - Mar 21 with 904 viewsSwansea_Blue

Interesting analysis of number of deaths projected on 09:36 - Mar 21 by Guthrum

Great article.


Good isn't it. Paints a nice broad picture over all the detail flying around. That this fella lives up to his name is just the cherry on top.

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Interesting analysis of number of deaths projected on 09:48 - Mar 21 with 885 viewsjimmyvet

Interesting analysis of number of deaths projected on 09:22 - Mar 21 by Herbivore

On the flu point, what he's saying is that there are cases where flu is a factor in the cause of death but is not listed as the cause of death. In other words, people with chronic health conditions who are essentially on borrowed time aren't counted as flu deaths if it is flu that 'finishes them off', it is deaths that are caused by the flu as primary cause. That's not been happening with the numbers for Covid-19 according to this analysis.


Thanks for this thread really interesting and informative 👍 hope we can keep moving forward on the forum like this, breath of fresh air, whilst also probably offering additional assurances to those who read it.
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Interesting analysis of number of deaths projected on 11:42 - Mar 21 with 773 viewsBluesquid

Now throw this into the mix...

Patients being potentially being treated with antivirals that are extremely dangerous for those with cardiac disease (high blood pressure, heart disease etc).

A high number of fatalities in Italy and over 75% of those fatalities had high blood pressure and a third had heart disease.

Ribavirin has been administered in Italy for patients with the Corona virus and according to the FDA - "Patients with a history of significant or unstable cardiac disease should not be treated with ribavirin. The hemolytic anemia associated with ribavirin therapy may result in worsening of cardiac disease and lead to fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarctions."

No way to know if it was administered to those particular patients i know but still it could be a possibility.
[Post edited 21 Mar 11:57]
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Interesting analysis of number of deaths projected on 11:45 - Mar 21 with 770 viewsTrequartista

Reading the news is like being a human pinball at the moment. Watching SKY in the Italian hospital intensive care units, followed by a BBC article saying most people would be dead anyway.

I'm keeping away now and watching one evening bulletin.

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Interesting analysis of number of deaths projected on 13:29 - Mar 21 with 683 viewspeterleeblue

Interesting analysis of number of deaths projected on 11:45 - Mar 21 by Trequartista

Reading the news is like being a human pinball at the moment. Watching SKY in the Italian hospital intensive care units, followed by a BBC article saying most people would be dead anyway.

I'm keeping away now and watching one evening bulletin.


I have taken that view. 10pm news and thats it.

Far too much time dwelling and worrying. Sometimes ignorance can help your mental state.

Just need to get of here now
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